Eason Theory

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

I've been watching The Herd with Colin Cowherd and he said something about Tua that I feel applies to Eason and the Colts.  For those of you don't know the rumor is that the Dolphins are playing Tua because they aren't sold on him and they have the Texans 1st round pick in the draft this year (top 5).  Cowherd said that when looking over the previous 3 NFL Drafts and the 1st rounder QBs taken, only a few were proving worth it. The whole list is:

 

Baker Mayfield- Not Sold

Sam Darnold- Not Sold

Josh Rosen- Not Sold

Kyler Murray- Sold

Daniel Jones- Not Sold

Josh Allen- Sold

Dwayne Haskins- Not Sold

Joe Burrow- Sold

Tua- Not Sold

Justin Herbert- Sold

Jordan Love- Not Sold

 

That is 4/11 that seem to be sold.  Cowherd makes the point that most teams don't want to start their guys this year.  He stated that he talked with Telesco (Chargers GM) and was told they really did want to sit Herbert( Because they knew he was gonna be great).  He then goes on to Mahomes and stated that everyone in the building new what they had in Mahomes, so there was no rush on playing him.  They had Alex Smith and they were winning games.  So the thought was let him learn for a year.  

 

I say all this to point out that Ballard was in Kansas City when they scouted Mahomes.  Then you look at how they have treated Eason.  "don't crown him" "he is not the messiah at QB", "We are really happy with Rivers".  He is learning and everything coming out is really positive.  I think they know they got a steal in the draft and that they know he is gonna be really good.  So there is no rush to play him.  Win with Rivers now and then make the move after this year to Eason.

 

 

 

[AZColt11]

Yeah I'm watchin that too.  I certainly HOPE you are correct on your theory there but we have no idea really.  But it would be MUCH easier for us fans if we already had our next franchise guy in the building.  Finding "that guy" is hard and stressful.  It would also be nice if you can get your guy on a cheap deal, which rookies are.  Makes managing the cap much easier for several years.

[chad72]

So, you are trying to conjecture that a QB that all the 32 teams that passed on him for 3 rounds before the Colts drafted him in Round 4, provides the same level of confidence like the generational talent QB that the Chiefs traded up for in the 1st round in Mahomes. Right!!!

 

If that is the case, if they have clinched the division and cannot move up in the standings, they will audition Eason for 1 game, which is what the Chiefs did vs the Broncos in week 17 before trading Alex Smith away. It was that week 17 game and how he handled things that gave the Chiefs confidence they can move on to him. In our case, they'd give the first shot to JB. Mahomes was primary backup behind Alex Smith, Eason is not, JB is.

[Yoshinator]

14 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I've been watching The Herd with Colin Cowherd and he said something about Tua that I feel applies to Eason and the Colts.  For those of you don't know the rumor is that the Dolphins are playing Tua because they aren't sold on him and they have the Texans 1st round pick in the draft this year (top 5).  Cowherd said that when looking over the previous 3 NFL Drafts and the 1st rounder QBs taken, only a few were proving worth it. The whole list is:

 

Baker Mayfield- Not Sold

Sam Darnold- Not Sold

Josh Rosen- Not Sold

Kyler Murray- Sold

Daniel Jones- Not Sold

Josh Allen- Sold

Dwayne Haskins- Not Sold

Joe Burrow- Sold

Tua- Not Sold

Justin Herbert- Sold

Jordan Love- Not Sold

 

That is 4/11 that seem to be sold.  Cowherd makes the point that most teams don't want to start their guys this year.  He stated that he talked with Telesco (Chargers GM) and was told they really did want to sit Herbert( Because they knew he was gonna be great).  He then goes on to Mahomes and stated that everyone in the building new what they had in Mahomes, so there was no rush on playing him.  They had Alex Smith and they were winning games.  So the thought was let him learn for a year.  

 

I say all this to point out that Ballard was in Kansas City when they scouted Mahomes.  Then you look at how they have treated Eason.  "don't crown him" "he is not the messiah at QB", "We are really happy with Rivers".  He is learning and everything coming out is really positive.  I think they know they got a steal in the draft and that they know he is gonna be really good.  So there is no rush to play him.  Win with Rivers now and then make the move after this year to Eason.

 

 

 

I would believe this, and would like to believe it, but Ballard and Reich had Chad Kelly with a decent amount of potential and never even started him before releasing him. I think there's a better chance he never starts a game then actually starting a game for us.

[stitches]

I don't get that rationale at all. Why would you sit a young QB if you think he's ready and will be great if he plays? Makes no sense. The moment you have a great young QB is the moment your clock starts ticking and you need to let him play and get him to his best possible shape as soon as possible and build a team around him by using the extra cash that having a great QB on rookie contract affords you. 

 

Having great young QB on rookie contract is one of the biggest competitive advantages in the league. It's would be a waste to sit him and waste a year of premier value he gives you. 

[twfish]

I see what you're saying but I'm not buying. I want to see Eason become our guy but there's a lot of things that are indication that what you're saying is highly not the case. He was a second round projected QB. If he was our guy from the get go then we would have taken him in the 2nd round and not wait until he fell to us in the 4th. Ballard loves to hype up players but he definitely was not hyping him up after we drafted him. He's not doing the scout team reps and I do not believe he is pulling any practice reps from Brissett. Which I honestly believe is hampering his development. If he was the #2 guy behind Rivers then i can begin to believe some of what you said but for now this coaching staff is to in debt to Brissett. I highly highly doubt unless there is a string of injuries that we even see him dress 1 time this year.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

14 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't get that rationale at all. Why would you sit a young QB if you think he's ready and will be great if he plays? Makes no sense. The moment you have a great young QB is the moment your clock starts ticking and you need to let him play and get him to his best possible shape as soon as possible and build a team around him by using the extra cash that having a great QB on rookie contract affords you. 

 

Having great young QB on rookie contract is one of the biggest competitive advantages in the league. It's would be a waste to sit him and waste a year of premier value he gives you. 

I understand but your side doesnt hold water when it comes to Mahomes.  The guy is generational and the Chiefs knew it, but they sat him for a year to learn.  Even if you have a great QB, you don't always have to start him right away.  

 

**Disclaimer- I'm not saying Eason is Mahomes**

[AZColt11]

All really good points.  I would tend to think if you have "the guy" you play him right away because of the cap factor in your favor.  I didn't happen to agree with Colin when he was making that point.  However, none of this means Eason can't be a hit.  It just means at this point we really have no idea.

[chad72]

7 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I understand but your side doesnt hold water when it comes to Mahomes.  The guy is generational and the Chiefs knew it, but they sat him for a year to learn.  Even if you have a great QB, you don't always have to start him right away.  

 

**Disclaimer- I'm not saying Eason is Mahomes**

 

But you definitely give him reps as your primary backup. If they believed in Eason that much, JB would have been cut and Eason would get all the backup reps. That has not been the case. Mahomes was the primary backup to Alex Smith and got the reps and even a start in game 16. You continue to ignore that fact.

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I understand but your side doesnt hold water when it comes to Mahomes.  The guy is generational and the Chiefs knew it, but they sat him for a year to learn.  Even if you have a great QB, you don't always have to start him right away.  

 

**Disclaimer- I'm not saying Eason is Mahomes**

They probably knew it at some point... but I doubt they knew it early on. The problem then becomes that Alex Smith was having a career year and was playing amazing football that Mahomes rookie year. You cannot bench a QB who is having almost MVP type of season for an unknown rookie. Even if they knew Mahomes is great, they already had a very very good option at QB in Alex Smith and they were competing at the same time. In other words - they could afford to wait it out and they made the right decision right after the season by trading Smith to leave the path for Mahomes completely open. Which is the right thing to do if you think he will be great. 

 

For whatever it's worth, I think we are actually in a situation that's much more similar to that KC situation than any of the Chargers/Miami/etc situations. We are actually in a phase of the development of this roster when we are competing and we have a good veteran QB, who probably gives us the best chance for this year, even if they actually believe Eason can be great. The real test then will be what they decide after the season is over - do they extend Rivers? Do they draft another QB high? Do they leave the starting spot open for Eason to claim? While I trust Ballard and Reich to a degree in what they say, I still think it's much more valueable to watch what they do than what they say to the media. What choices they make after the season with the QB position will show a lot about what exactly they think about Eason. 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

For whatever it's worth, I think we are actually in a situation that's much more similar to that KC situation than any of the Chargers/Miami/etc situations. We are actually in a phase of the development of this roster when we are competing and we have a good veteran QB, who probably gives us the best chance for this year, even if they actually believe Eason can be great. The real test then will be what they decide after the season is over - do they extend Rivers? Do they draft another QB high? While I trust Ballard and Reich to a degree in what they say, I still think it's much more valueable to watch what they do than what they say to the media. What choices they make after the season with the QB position will show a lot about what exactly they think about Eason. 

I couldn't agree more.  What they do this offseason will tell us everything.

[GoColts8818]

I hope he’s good and I mean this with all due respect, and I really mean that that’s not sarcasm, I think you are trying really hard to see things the way you want them to be and I don’t want to blame you for that.  Like I said I hope he’s good I just think it’s really impossible to get any kind of read on him or what the Colts really think as he hasn’t even played a pre-season game yet let alone a real game.  I am sure the Colts do like him or they wouldn’t have drafted him in the first place but I think it’s too early to read into anything other than they like his potential.  Rather that turns into anything we will all have to wait and see.

[Four2itus]

14 minutes ago, stitches said:

The problem then becomes that Alex Smith was having a career year and was playing amazing football that Mahomes rookie year. You cannot bench a QB who is having almost MVP type of season for an unknown rookie.

Just to play devils advocate, isn't that somewhat what the Dolphins did with Fitzmagic and Tua? HIs TD/int weren't great, but he was completing an average of 72% of his passes. 

[PrincetonTiger]

30 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I understand but your side doesnt hold water when it comes to Mahomes.  The guy is generational and the Chiefs knew it, but they sat him for a year to learn.  Even if you have a great QB, you don't always have to start him right away.  

 

**Disclaimer- I'm not saying Eason is Mahomes**

Mahomes needed to get used to a Pro Offense

 

   @chad72

[stitches]

Just now, Four2itus said:

Just to play devils advocate, isn't that somewhat what the Dolphins did with Fitzmagic and Tua? HIs TD/int weren't great, but he was completing an average of 72% of his passes. 

Somewhat, but they are in a different stage of their development as a roster. Their roster is not as good/complete as ours or KC's at the time, also Fitzmagic actually had a couple of iffy games before they made the change(I don't think he was playing anywhere close to Alex Smith level). They are not built to compete right now. 

[twfish]

8 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Just to play devils advocate, isn't that somewhat what the Dolphins did with Fitzmagic and Tua? HIs TD/int weren't great, but he was completing an average of 72% of his passes. 

Not even in the same ball field. Fitz has never been close to an mvp nomination and he wasnt going to be this year either

[Superman]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

If that is the case, if they have clinched the division and cannot move up in the standings, they will audition Eason for 1 game, which is what the Chiefs did vs the Broncos in week 17 before trading Alex Smith away. It was that week 17 game and how he handled things that gave the Chiefs confidence they can move on to him. In our case, they'd give the first shot to JB. Mahomes was primary backup behind Alex Smith, Eason is not, JB is.

 

I kind of think they should do this anyway. Maybe not start Eason, but find a way to get him some reps in the last month of the season, especially if our seeding is locked up at some point.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I don't get that rationale at all. Why would you sit a young QB if you think he's ready and will be great if he plays? Makes no sense. The moment you have a great young QB is the moment your clock starts ticking and you need to let him play and get him to his best possible shape as soon as possible and build a team around him by using the extra cash that having a great QB on rookie contract affords you. 

 

Having great young QB on rookie contract is one of the biggest competitive advantages in the league. It's would be a waste to sit him and waste a year of premier value he gives you. 

 

I still think a lot of young QBs would benefit from a redshirt year, especially if you have a successful vet starting. Everyone -- fans, media -- is in such a rush for first round rookies to start, and then if they don't look amazing they're ready for them to be pushed out. Some guys are ready, like Herbert. Most get thrown to the wolves, and then fail to live up to unreasonable expectations.

[Shadow_Creek]

Just now, Superman said:

 

I still think a lot of young QBs would benefit from a redshirt year, especially if you have a successful vet starting. Everyone -- fans, media -- is in such a rush for first round rookies to start, and then if they don't look amazing they're ready for them to be pushed out. Some guys are ready, like Herbert. Most get thrown to the wolves, and then fail to live up to unreasonable expectations.

thank goodness Luck pulled it off. although it came with a price

[LJpalmbeacher2]

59 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

Mahomes needed to get used to a Pro Offense

 

   @chad72

 

And KC Barbecue. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Shadow_Creek said:

thank goodness Luck pulled it off. although it came with a price

 

Don't get me wrong, some guys are ready to start, if they have the right support. Most others need time, and we know they need time, but then people get upset when they aren't starting by Week 5 because the team isn't competing for a SB. 

[dw49]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

But you definitely give him reps as your primary backup. If they believed in Eason that much, JB would have been cut and Eason would get all the backup reps. That has not been the case. Mahomes was the primary backup to Alex Smith and got the reps and even a start in game 16. You continue to ignore that fact.

 

No preseason really "muddies" these waters. Even if the Colts really like Eason a lot , with a team being good enough to contend they could never cut JB and go with Eason as the #2. 

[stitches]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I still think a lot of young QBs would benefit from a redshirt year, especially if you have a successful vet starting. Everyone -- fans, media -- is in such a rush for first round rookies to start, and then if they don't look amazing they're ready for them to be pushed out. Some guys are ready, like Herbert. Most get thrown to the wolves, and then fail to live up to unreasonable expectations.

I agree to some degree, but I think this is true for QBs who are not yet ready to run an NFL offense AND/OR for teams that already have a high end QB and are competing in which case even if the young QB might be ready and good, the chance is that the vet will give you better chance to win. 

 

If the guy is not ready, don't let him in. If you are in a win-now mode with a good vet - keep the rookie on the bench. Otherwise... just let the guy play. 

[gspdx]

Most QBs are not ready to start their first season in the NFL.  Do most of us agree with that?  Some are ready, but in my opinion very few.  Guys like Manning and Luck are few and far between.  In so many cases the high draft picks go to the worst teams which makes it even harder for a QB to start.

 

Something like the Wilson situation was perfect for him.  Very talented guy and he landed on a pretty good team.

 

anyway, letting a guy sit for year and 1) learn the system 2)learn from the vets 3) get more accustomed to the speed of the NFL game just makes good sense.

 

I would say at this point we know next to nothing about Eason.  Could he be the guy?  Maybe.  But I bet he would be keeping his uniform clean on gameday whether they thought he was a stud or not.  It's just smart management of the growth of a QB.

[Myles]

2 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I've been watching The Herd with Colin Cowherd and he said something about Tua that I feel applies to Eason and the Colts.  For those of you don't know the rumor is that the Dolphins are playing Tua because they aren't sold on him and they have the Texans 1st round pick in the draft this year (top 5).  Cowherd said that when looking over the previous 3 NFL Drafts and the 1st rounder QBs taken, only a few were proving worth it. The whole list is:

 

Baker Mayfield- Not Sold

Sam Darnold- Not Sold

Josh Rosen- Not Sold

Kyler Murray- Sold

Daniel Jones- Not Sold

Josh Allen- Sold

Dwayne Haskins- Not Sold

Joe Burrow- Sold

Tua- Not Sold

Justin Herbert- Sold

Jordan Love- Not Sold

 

 

 

 

Cowherd is usually an *.  He has a bit of a point in this except that it is totally reasonable that they went to Tua.  They started 1-3 with Fitz and then they won vs the 49rs and the Jets and at that point could tell that the ceiling with Fitz wasn't real high.  So they start Tua for 10 games and will have a good idea of what he brings so they can decide whether to use their top 5 pick on a QB or not.  Smart move really.  

[richard pallo]

Here's my take on Eason.  Once we signed Rivers on 3/23 we were going for the SB.  That ruled out any potential move up in the draft for a QB a month later.  That gave us Rivers and Brisett.  A new starter and a solid backup.  The trade of our 1st pick for Buckner further solidifies the plan and goal for this year.  Our 2nd and 3rd picks were chosen with the SB goal in mind.  Highly rated RB and WR to add more weapons.  But Ballard knew we needed a QB to groom for the future and Eason with a 2nd rd grade falls to us in the 4th rd and Ballard couldn't be happier.  Brissett should get all the 2nd team reps.  He has to be ready.  Eason is here to learn from the other two and set his sights on next year where he should be ready to be the no 2 behind Rivers.  I expect Rivers to be back especially if we make the playoffs.  Eason is the heir apparent unless he just shows he's not.  Depending on how the season ends I could see both Brissett and Eason getting reps in a meaningless game.  Rivers rests Brissett starts and Eason comes in as well.  JMO. 

[AKB]

2 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I've been watching The Herd with Colin Cowherd and he said something about Tua that I feel applies to Eason and the Colts.  For those of you don't know the rumor is that the Dolphins are playing Tua because they aren't sold on him and they have the Texans 1st round pick in the draft this year (top 5).  Cowherd said that when looking over the previous 3 NFL Drafts and the 1st rounder QBs taken, only a few were proving worth it. The whole list is:

 

Baker Mayfield- Not Sold

Sam Darnold- Not Sold

Josh Rosen- Not Sold

Kyler Murray- Sold

Daniel Jones- Not Sold

Josh Allen- Sold

Dwayne Haskins- Not Sold

Joe Burrow- Sold

Tua- Not Sold

Justin Herbert- Sold

Jordan Love- Not Sold

 

That is 4/11 that seem to be sold.  Cowherd makes the point that most teams don't want to start their guys this year.  He stated that he talked with Telesco (Chargers GM) and was told they really did want to sit Herbert( Because they knew he was gonna be great).  He then goes on to Mahomes and stated that everyone in the building new what they had in Mahomes, so there was no rush on playing him.  They had Alex Smith and they were winning games.  So the thought was let him learn for a year.  

 

I say all this to point out that Ballard was in Kansas City when they scouted Mahomes.  Then you look at how they have treated Eason.  "don't crown him" "he is not the messiah at QB", "We are really happy with Rivers".  He is learning and everything coming out is really positive.  I think they know they got a steal in the draft and that they know he is gonna be really good.  So there is no rush to play him.  Win with Rivers now and then make the move after this year to Eason.

 

 

 

That's a bit of a stretch. Also Sam Darnold can play, he's on the worst team in the NFL. I also wouldn't be so quick to close the door on Baker either. The Browns aren't known for their competence. 

 

But I do like Eason. 

[CoachLite]

2 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

All really good points.  I would tend to think if you have "the guy" you play him right away because of the cap factor in your favor.  I didn't happen to agree with Colin when he was making that point.  However, none of this means Eason can't be a hit.  It just means at this point we really have no idea.

There is a human tendency, when lacking any real information, to make up stories. I read a definition of (bullfeathers to avoid editing): A story told as if it was true without having any idea if it is true or not. In that case, it is different from a lie.

[Mr.Debonair]

[Bert Johns]

You never know what you have till they step on the field in real game action. Mahomes included. If they had no doubt that Mahomes was as good as he is he would have started on day one. He may have looked great in practice but with defensive coordinators game planning for him is a whole nother story. I hate to quote Allen Iverson. Quote practice practice are we talking bout practice. Coaches are not going to put there jobs on the line for a practice player. I guarantee you Andy Reid was nervous the first time Mahomes got the start till he seen him in live action.

[aaron11]

10 minutes ago, Bert Johns said:

You never know what you have till they step on the field in real game action. Mahomes included. If they had no doubt that Mahomes was as good as he is he would have started on day one. He may have looked great in practice but with defensive coordinators game planning for him is a whole nother story. I hate to quote Allen Iverson. Quote practice practice are we talking bout practice. Coaches are not going to put there jobs on the line for a practice player. I guarantee you Andy Reid was nervous the first time Mahomes got the start till he seen him in live action.

i dont think he was ready for the league right out of college, it took some time with AR to install an nfl offense in him 

[NannyMcafee]

I hope Eason can be that guy. It would be amazing to have that QB again especially on this team. 

 

But he's more likely to be JBs replacement as backup QB who is a great backup alone. 

[ColtJax]

Manning started day 1 snap 1.

[Breeze]

Looking at the glass half full, I can see Eason as someone that had he stayed in school this year, he’d be in the discussion as a top 10 pick in 2021.  And we managed to scoop him up a year early.  We shall see.

[Myles]

29 minutes ago, ColtJax said:

Manning started day 1 snap 1

He was an elite exception kind of like Luck was.   I think Eason could be great and his time as backup (even third string) could be very beneficial in his development.  

Using the 13th pick on Buckner was a great move as that position was crucial to make our defense work and that has worked out very well.  

Love or Hurts are the only QB's we could have had if we kept the 14th pick.  

[Myles]

7 minutes ago, Breeze said:

Looking at the glass half full, I can see Eason as someone that had he stayed in school this year, he’d be in the discussion as a top 10 pick in 2021.  And we managed to scoop him up a year early.  We shall see.

I agree.  Getting him with a 4th round pick has lots of upside.  Not a super valuable pick but lots of value when used on the 4th round pick.  From a quick Google search, he was projected anywhere from a late 1st to an early 3rd round pick.   

[indykmj]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Here's my take on Eason.  Once we signed Rivers on 3/23 we were going for the SB.  That ruled out any potential move up in the draft for a QB a month later.  That gave us Rivers and Brisett.  A new starter and a solid backup.  The trade of our 1st pick for Buckner further solidifies the plan and goal for this year.  Our 2nd and 3rd picks were chosen with the SB goal in mind.  Highly rated RB and WR to add more weapons.  But Ballard knew we needed a QB to groom for the future and Eason with a 2nd rd grade falls to us in the 4th rd and Ballard couldn't be happier.  Brissett should get all the 2nd team reps.  He has to be ready.  Eason is here to learn from the other two and set his sights on next year where he should be ready to be the no 2 behind Rivers.  I expect Rivers to be back especially if we make the playoffs.  Eason is the heir apparent unless he just shows he's not.  Depending on how the season ends I could see both Brissett and Eason getting reps in a meaningless game.  Rivers rests Brissett starts and Eason comes in as well.  JMO. 

  2nd round grade by whom ?

[AwesomeAustin]

Or maybe Eason is on the bench bc he isn’t the future?  He is more likely to be out of the league in 7 yrs than a franchise QB. Like everyone else, I hope Eason is the future and has a great career with the Colts.  Doesn’t change he was a 4th round pick and more than likely he is not the exception.  Hopefully he can at least develop into a high end back up and stay in the league.  Guess we will know more this offseason. 

[John Hammonds]

Someone needs to tell Occam to go find his razor.

[Four2itus]