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2020 Colts at Lions - Matchup info


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General Notes
1. On paper, our D should shut down their O, and on paper, their D is below average in just about ever aspect 
2. On paper, our passing game should handily beat their passing D
3. On paper, our rushing O vs their rushing D is a wash, but many of the talking heads and fantasy folks love our rush O a lot more.
4. Peterson has been their bell cow, but Swift has been more productive. Swifts carries have increased the last two games, so don't be shocked to see that continue. He has 5 total TDs vs AP's 2. 
5. Stafford seems to deal his passes around, with 5 different players getting between 25 and 31 targets each.
6. Stafford is coming off his best game last week, and he's won two in a row on the road. Both with good QBRs.
7. Only one bad loss (@GB) early for Detroit. Their other 2 losses were at home early to the Bears, and later to NO. Both by less than a TD.
8. Both Amendola and Golladay are top 10ish in AVG

 

Prediction - I just don't know what to expect from our offense. I'd love to see good balance, but could see either passing or rushing having a good day. While on paper our D should dominate thier O, I could see Stafford having a very good day if we play soft zone. I could see either team winning a close one. I'd love to see us start to look the part, and win it going away though by dominating both sides of the ball. Doubt that happens, and expect a close one.


Line: Colts -3
O/U: 50.5


Colts Offense vs Detroits Defense
Total Yards - #19 vs #22
Passing Yards - #10 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #28 vs #26
Points - #14 vs #20

 

Colts Defense vs Detroit's Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #23
Passing Yards - #2 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #3 vs #18
Points - #4 vs #15

 

Colts sacks allowed vs Detroit sacks
#1 least (6) vs #28 (8)

Colts sacks vs vs Detroits sacks allowed
#18 (13) vs #17 (14)

Colts QB INTs vs Detroits Defensive INTs
#19 (6) vs #16 (5)

Colts Defensive INTs vs Detroits QB INTs
#1 (10) vs #9 (4)

Colts RZ O vs Detroits RZ D
#27 vs #22

Colts RZ D vs Detroit's RZ O
#20 vs #18

Colts 3rd Down O vs Detroits 3rd Down D
#23 vs #24

Colts 3rd Down D vs Detroits 3rd Down O
#15 vs #26

 

Injuries. 
Detroit - Starting LT (Decker), starging RB A Peterson,  and starting CB are all LP. All are questionable except for AP.

 

Indy -Kelly and Mo questionable. Kelly DNP, Mo was LP.

 


4for4 had this to say about our rush O vs their D

Quote

 

Colts @ Lions
Coming out of a Colts bye week, this is typically the time that rookie running backs begin to see a heightened workload. Per my research during the offseason, rookie running backs historically have scored 40% more fantasy points in the second half of the season than they do in the first half of the season. This could have to do with several factors, namely learning the offense and earning the trust of the coaching staff. Jonathan Taylor has the added bonus of becoming the de facto number one running back due to the unfortunate Marlon Mack injury right out of the gates. Whether the coaching staff wanted to or not, Taylor’s usage was going to rise no matter what and his snap share finally reached 60% the week before their bye.

A 60/40 or —heaven forbid— a 70/30 split between Taylor and the likes of Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins would be plenty of touches to produce RB1 numbers against a Detroit team that ranks 28th in aFPA to the running back position. Even better news for Taylor, left tackle Anthony Castonzo is set to come out of the bye week back to 100% after dealing with a rib issue that forced him out of an early-October game.

 


https://www.4for4.com/2020/w8/o-line-rankings-and-matchups-exploit-week-8

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12 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

General Notes
1. On paper, our D should shut down their O, and on paper, their D is below average in just about ever aspect 
2. On paper, our passing game should handily beat their passing D
3. On paper, our rushing O vs their rushing D is a wash, but many of the talking heads and fantasy folks love our rush O a lot more.
4. Peterson has been their bell cow, but Swift has been more productive. Swifts carries have increased the last two games, so don't be shocked to see that continue. He has 5 total TDs vs AP's 2. 
5. Stafford seems to deal his passes around, with 5 different players getting between 25 and 31 targets each.
6. Stafford is coming off his best game last week, and he's won two in a row on the road. Both with good QBRs.
7. Only one bad loss (@GB) early for Detroit. Their other 2 losses were at home early to the Bears, and later to NO. Both by less than a TD.
8. Both Amendola and Golladay are top 10ish in AVG

 

Prediction - I just don't know what to expect from our offense. I'd love to see good balance, but could see either passing or rushing having a good day. While on paper our D should dominate thier O, I could see Stafford having a very good day if we play soft zone. I could see either team winning a close one. I'd love to see us start to look the part, and win it going away though by dominating both sides of the ball. Doubt that happens, and expect a close one.


Line: Colts -3
O/U: 50.5


Colts Offense vs Detroits Defense
Total Yards - #19 vs #22
Passing Yards - #10 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #28 vs #26
Points - #14 vs #20

 

Colts Defense vs Detroit's Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #23
Passing Yards - #2 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #3 vs #18
Points - #4 vs #15

 

Colts sacks allowed vs Detroit sacks
#1 least (6) vs #28 (8)

Colts sacks vs vs Detroits sacks allowed
#18 (13) vs #17 (14)

Colts QB INTs vs Detroits Defensive INTs
#19 (6) vs #16 (5)

Colts Defensive INTs vs Detroits QB INTs
#1 (10) vs #9 (4)

Colts RZ O vs Detroits RZ D
#27 vs #22

Colts RZ D vs Detroit's RZ O
#20 vs #18

Colts 3rd Down O vs Detroits 3rd Down D
#23 vs #24

Colts 3rd Down D vs Detroits 3rd Down O
#15 vs #26

 

Injuries. 
Detroit - Starting LT (Decker), starging RB A Peterson,  and starting CB are all LP. All are questionable except for AP.

 

Indy -Kelly and Mo questionable. Kelly DNP, Mo was LP.

 


4for4 had this to say about our rush O vs their D


https://www.4for4.com/2020/w8/o-line-rankings-and-matchups-exploit-week-8

 

Thanks for the breakdown.

 

Let us do just this, if you do not mind. Look at just their last 4 games and see if you can provide stats on those. The NFL is typically a week-to-week league and a case of what have you done for me lately (thanks Janet Jackson :)).

 

The first 2 games, they did not have Kenny Golladay and then he came back, and the results have been a close win vs Cardinals, a close loss vs Saints, a win vs Jaguars and a close win vs Falcons. I feel they are a different team with him in their line up. Thanks.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Thanks for the breakdown.

 

Let us do just this, if you do not mind. Look at just their last 4 games and see if you can provide stats on those. The NFL is typically a week-to-week league and a case of what have you done for me lately (thanks Janet Jackson :)).

 

The first 2 games, they did not have Kenny Golladay and then he came back, and the results have been a close win vs Cardinals, a close loss vs Saints, a win vs Jaguars and a close win vs Falcons. I feel they are a different team with him in their line up. Thanks.

Yup. Like I said above IIRC, trending well, close losses except GB, and Stafford coming off his two best-ish games. 

 

He's a QB that scares me if we play soft zone. If our D looks like 1st half Cinci game, could be a long day. Just hope the O game plan is balanced and productive so we can keep up even if Stafford has some luck.

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Just now, EastStreet said:

Yup. Like I said above IIRC, trending well, close losses except GB, and Stafford coming off his two best-ish games. 

 

He's a QB that scares me if we play soft zone. If our D looks like 1st half Cinci game, could be a long day. Just hope the O game plan is balanced and productive so we can keep up even if Stafford has some luck.

 

That makes several of us.

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Here's ESPN's take

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/viewersguide10302020/nfl-week-8-game-picks-schedule-guide-fantasy-football-tips-odds-injuries-more#inddet

 

Quote

 

Matchup rating: 40.4 | Spread: IND -2.5 (50)

 

What to watch for: The Lions have been much better against the run the past two weeks, holding Jacksonville and Atlanta under 100 rushing yards. For Detroit to win Sunday, it'll probably have to make it three straight, this time against rookie Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in each of his past four games. How the Lions handle that matchup could determine the game. -- Michael Rothstein

 

Bold prediction: Colts receiver TY Hilton's string of not having at least 100 yards receiving will end at 17 games. Hilton, who is off to the slowest start of his nine-year career, hasn't had a 100-yard receiving game since he had 138 against the Giants on Dec. 23, 2018. -- Mike Wells

 

Stat to know: Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers has a season-high three passing touchdowns against the Bengals before last week's bye, but he has not posted multiple passing scores in consecutive games since Weeks 13-14 of last season. And Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off his first 300-yard passing game of the season against the Falcons, but he has not passed for 300 yards or more in consecutive games since a three-game streak from Weeks 7-9 of 2019.

 

Injuries: Colts | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Lions running back D'Andre Swift has three scores over his past two games (two touchdowns this season prior) and is averaging 15 touches in those games (6.3 in prior games). See Week 8 rankings.

 

Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 11-3-1 ATS coming off of a bye week since the start of the 2005 season. Read more.

 

Wells' pick: Colts 28, Lions 20
Rothstein's pick: Lions 27, Colts 23
FPI prediction: IND, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

Prediction -  I'd love to see good balance, but could see either passing or rushing having a good day. While on paper our D should dominate thier O, I could see Stafford having a very good day if we play soft zone. I could see either team winning a close one. I'd love to see us start to look the part, and win it going away though by dominating both sides of the ball. Doubt that happens, and expect a close one.


Line: Colts -3
O/U: 50.5


Colts Offense vs Detroits Defense
Total Yards - #19 vs #22
Passing Yards - #10 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #28 vs #26
Points - #14 vs #20

 

Colts Defense vs Detroit's Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #23
Passing Yards - #2 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #3 vs #18
Points - #4 vs #15

 

Colts sacks allowed vs Detroit sacks
#1 least (6) vs #28 (8)

Colts sacks vs vs Detroits sacks allowed
#18 (13) vs #17 (14)

Colts QB INTs vs Detroits Defensive INTs
#19 (6) vs #16 (5)

Colts Defensive INTs vs Detroits QB INTs
#1 (10) vs #9 (4)

Colts RZ O vs Detroits RZ D
#27 vs #22

Colts RZ D vs Detroit's RZ O
#20 vs #18

Colts 3rd Down O vs Detroits 3rd Down D
#23 vs #24

Colts 3rd Down D vs Detroits 3rd Down O
#15 vs #26

 

Injuries. 
Detroit - Starting LT (Decker), starging RB A Peterson,  and starting CB are all LP. All are questionable except for AP.

 

Indy -Kelly and Mo questionable. Kelly DNP, Mo was LP.

 


4for4 had this to say about our rush O vs their D


https://www.4for4.com/2020/w8/o-line-rankings-and-matchups-exploit-week-8

 

What I Bolded is my concern too. Stafford is certainly better than Minshew and Baker.

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46 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

What I Bolded is my concern too. Stafford is certainly better than Minshew and Baker.

Yep. And more experienced than Burrow. Probably the best O we've played thus far.

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15 hours ago, chad72 said:

The first 2 games, they did not have Kenny Golladay and then he came back


KG really wasn’t near 100% until the Jax game either. He looks close to 100% now. 
 

Week 1 Vs the Bears the Lions defense lost 3 CB’s. Two of them starters. They were dominating CHI before that and CHI was able to rally back as a result. DET still almost won the game but Swift dropped the game winner in the end zone. The Lions defense was really banged up vs GB, ARZ and NO. They are finally getting healthy. The Lions are still down two CB’s. Trufant and Coleman won’t play this week and haven’t played since week one. 
 

I think the Swift vs Taylor matchup will be a fun one to watch.  I hope they both get the majority of the carries. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Air2theThrown said:

I think the Swift vs Taylor matchup will be a fun one to watch.  I hope they both get the majority of the carries. 

I agree, but unfortunately for Taylor, the majority of carries is usually 12-15 instead of closer to 20.

 

 

Interesting question for you.

 

What is your thoughts on Peterson, I almost considered it a slap in the face to Barry Sanders with the Lions bringing in AP to potentially surpass Barry's rushing yds total, while wearing a Lions uniform.

 

Hopefully he doesnt, bit I found it weird when he was initially signed. 

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I know the continued narrative about the Colts D is we havent played anyone.

 

6 games in still in top 2-4 in most statistical categories and number 1 in INTs is pretty impressive. As we play a couple higher rated offenses we may drop a little, but I dont see us finishing out of top 10 defensively.

 

Bengals

Browns

Vikings

 

Offenses have all been prove n to be pretty solid, Bengals and Browns more so lately, but Vikings have put up some numbers as well.

 

Browns 28.6pts/game(10th) ~ 364yds/game(17th)

Vikings 25.8pts/game(17th) ~ 374yds/game(14th)

Bengals 23.3pts/game(23rd) ~ 361yds/game(19th)

 

Against us:

Vikings 11pts 175yds 

Browns 26pts(offensive) 385yds

Bengals 27pts 398yds

 

So Vikings overall numbers clearly take a hit from our game, Browns/Bengals are close to same range. Both teams have been playing well lately, outside of Steelers game for Browns, and Bengal Ravens games. Those 2 teams are clearly trending up offensively.

 

I expect all 3 of these teams to end up in top 12-16 offense by end of year, maybe a couple to press top 10 status.

 

Our other 3 opponents are near the bottom in offense,  it I think that has a little bit to do with us holding them to very low numbers in our matchups.

 

Jaguars game was essentially a preseason game with no game action together prior to.

 

Jaguars are averaging 343yds/ game, only had 241yds against us and given short field on 2 Rivers ints for their 27 pts, averaging 22pts/game overall

 

Jets are averaging 264yds/game 12pts/game had 270yds and 7pts against us. Pretty much on par with their dismal performances.

 

Bears are averaging 308yds/game and 19pts/game, had 269yds and 11pts(late garbage time TD) against us. So their overall numbers are taking a bump from the Colts game.

 

Also Bears are 5-2 so obviously they are no slouch.

 

 

Overall sentiment, Colts defense needs to start getting a little respect here on the forum. We also were without our best or 2nd best defender(Leonard) for 2 of those games we were the worst statistically(Browns + Bengals).

 

Despite claims of soft coverage, which is valid. We still give up less than 200yds a game passing and are 2nd best in the league, while only giving up 19.2pts/game(4th best)

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I hope we bring the pressure early and often. No more slow starts. If we lose, let’s lose playing aggressive D.  There is nothing worse than watching QBs have all day to shred the soft zone.:hairout:

 

I’m excited for this one.

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3 hours ago, coltsfansince65 said:

I agree with this 100%. Stafford is actually a QB I wouldn't mind seeing wearing the horseshoe next season.

I'm not really all that high on Stafford, but I do feel sorry for him being stuck on that team. He's better than folks give him credit for. I wouldn't be mad if we picked him up though. 

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3 hours ago, w87r said:

I know the continued narrative about the Colts D is we havent played anyone.

 

6 games in still in top 2-4 in most statistical categories and number 1 in INTs is pretty impressive. As we play a couple higher rated offenses we may drop a little, but I dont see us finishing out of top 10 defensively.

 

Bengals

Browns

Vikings

 

Offenses have all been prove n to be pretty solid, Bengals and Browns more so lately, but Vikings have put up some numbers as well.

 

Browns 28.6pts/game(10th) ~ 364yds/game(17th)

Vikings 25.8pts/game(17th) ~ 374yds/game(14th)

Bengals 23.3pts/game(23rd) ~ 361yds/game(19th)

 

Against us:

Vikings 11pts 175yds 

Browns 26pts(offensive) 385yds

Bengals 27pts 398yds

 

So Vikings overall numbers clearly take a hit from our game, Browns/Bengals are close to same range. Both teams have been playing well lately, outside of Steelers game for Browns, and Bengal Ravens games. Those 2 teams are clearly trending up offensively.

 

I expect all 3 of these teams to end up in top 12-16 offense by end of year, maybe a couple to press top 10 status.

 

Our other 3 opponents are near the bottom in offense,  it I think that has a little bit to do with us holding them to very low numbers in our matchups.

 

Jaguars game was essentially a preseason game with no game action together prior to.

 

Jaguars are averaging 343yds/ game, only had 241yds against us and given short field on 2 Rivers ints for their 27 pts, averaging 22pts/game overall

 

Jets are averaging 264yds/game 12pts/game had 270yds and 7pts against us. Pretty much on par with their dismal performances.

 

Bears are averaging 308yds/game and 19pts/game, had 269yds and 11pts(late garbage time TD) against us. So their overall numbers are taking a bump from the Colts game.

 

Also Bears are 5-2 so obviously they are no slouch.

 

 

Overall sentiment, Colts defense needs to start getting a little respect here on the forum. We also were without our best or 2nd best defender(Leonard) for 2 of those games we were the worst statistically(Browns + Bengals).

 

Despite claims of soft coverage, which is valid. We still give up less than 200yds a game passing and are 2nd best in the league, while only giving up 19.2pts/game(4th best)

I think I predicted we be 8-12ish at the end of the year. It won't take a lot for us to drop in the yardage ranks. I'm not really worried about our run D. I think it's really the passing D that hasn't been tested. Burrow was best we've faced, and he's a rook behind a bad OL surrounded by a bad team. Aside from our soft zone and unwillingness to blitz, I think we're ripe for a good QB to come along and abuse.

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5 hours ago, w87r said:

I agree, but unfortunately for Taylor, the majority of carries is usually 12-15 instead of closer to 20.

 

 

Interesting question for you.

 

What is your thoughts on Peterson, I almost considered it a slap in the face to Barry Sanders with the Lions bringing in AP to potentially surpass Barry's rushing yds total, while wearing a Lions uniform.

 

Hopefully he doesnt, bit I found it weird when he was initially signed. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor get a major increase in carries today. 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Swift get a major increase as well, especially with AP gimpy.

 

I have no problem with AP being there. You can't manage a roster and make choices dependent on that type of stuff.

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5 hours ago, w87r said:

I agree, but unfortunately for Taylor, the majority of carries is usually 12-15 instead of closer to 20.

 


Swifts have been even fewer but I’m expecting him to get more moving forward. 
 

5 hours ago, w87r said:

What is your thoughts on Peterson, I almost considered it a slap in the face to Barry Sanders with the Lions bringing in AP to potentially surpass Barry's rushing yds total, while wearing a Lions uniform.


Barry is close with the team and wants to see them win. So there’s no hard feelings. Barry never cared about stats anyway.
 

The Lions desperately needed a veteran RB to mentor their young RB group. I think it’s a smart move. I also do not think AP breaks the record in a Lions uniform. He’s only had 300 yards so far and still needs another 800 to get there. I doubt he’s back next year. 

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20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor get a major increase in carries today. 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Swift get a major increase as well, especially with AP gimpy.

 

I have no problem with AP being there. You can't manage a roster and make choices dependent on that type of stuff.

I wish it were today. Lol.

 

I agree on Swift.

 

I do disagree to an extent on last part though. Barry Sanders team legacy should mean something. Now if Lions didnt have or bad options maybe, but they had Johnson and a 2nd round pick coming into the year.

 

If they wanted to pick up Peterson after he passed Sanders? Maybe bit to have him pass him in the Lions uniform, I don't like. Not that that means much.

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4 minutes ago, Air2theThrown said:


Swifts have been even fewer but I’m expecting him to get more moving forward. 
 


Barry is close with the team and wants to see them win. So there’s no hard feelings. Barry never cared about stats anyway.
 

The Lions desperately needed a veteran RB to mentor their young RB group. I think it’s a smart move. I also do not think AP breaks the record in a Lions uniform. He’s only had 300 yards so far and still needs another 800 to get there. I doubt he’s back next year. 

Swift was injured early though as well. I expect him to take over as well.

 

Thanks

 

I dont think Peterson does either, but early in the season it seemed like a decent possibility.

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6 minutes ago, w87r said:

 

If they wanted to pick up Peterson after he passed Sanders? Maybe bit to have him pass him in the Lions uniform, I don't like. Not that that means much.

I honestly do not think it happens and I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t let it happened either. 
 

we’re heading into week 8. AP isn’t even close to half way there and for this reason I do not think he’s back next. 
 

I also expect Swift to get more and more snaps moving forward too. 
 

I bet AP ends the season about 500 yards shy of Barry’s numbers. I think the Lions brass knew he wouldn’t hit it when they brought him in. 

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2 minutes ago, Air2theThrown said:

I honestly do not think it happens and I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t let it happened either. 
 

we’re heading into week 8. AP isn’t even close to half way there and for this reason I do not think he’s back next. 
 

I also expect Swift to get more and more snaps moving forward too. 
 

I bet AP ends the season about 500 yards shy of Barry’s numbers. I think the Lions brass knew he wouldn’t hit it when they brought him in. 

I don't either, but like I said after 1st couple games it seemed like a possibility.

 

It's a moot point at this stage, was just curious of a Lions fans view.

 

I just didn't like the signing myself. Like I said though, not that that matters.

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24 minutes ago, w87r said:

I wish it were today. Lol.

 

I agree on Swift.

 

I do disagree to an extent on last part though. Barry Sanders team legacy should mean something. Now if Lions didnt have or bad options maybe, but they had Johnson and a 2nd round pick coming into the year.

 

If they wanted to pick up Peterson after he passed Sanders? Maybe bit to have him pass him in the Lions uniform, I don't like. Not that that means much.

I don't think it means anything at all. Only Detroit fans looking to complain will be upset. Detroit fans have plenty already to complain about lol. 

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28 minutes ago, Air2theThrown said:

Pride of Detroit’s breakdown of the matchup. I think it’s a good write up from Detroit’s point of view. Curious what you all think?

 

I would say it seems fairly accurate. 
 

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2020/10/30/21539895/detroit-lions-indianapolis-colts-preview-prediction-on-paper

These were interesting to me

 

colts_pass_d.jpg

 

colts_run_d.jpg

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I don't think it means anything at all. Only Detroit fans looking to complain will be upset. Detroit fans have plenty already to complain about lol. 

I agree.

 

I just loved me some Barry Sanders and it struck a nerve with me.

 

Even if he didn't break the record with the Lions, they were still giving him the opportunity to close the deficit, when at the time no one else was.

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Just now, w87r said:

I agree.

 

I just loved me some Barry Sanders and it struck a nerve with me.

 

Even if he didn't break the record with the Lions, they were still giving him the opportunity to close the deficit, when at the time no one else was.

I love Barry too. But it doesn't bother me. We all now where Barry made his bones, and same with AP.

 

AP would have got a gig I think regardless. 

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Just now, EastStreet said:

I love Barry too. But it doesn't bother me. We all now where Barry made his bones, and same with AP.

 

AP would have got a gig I think regardless. 

Maybe he would have?

 

Maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way? Maybe Lions had some evil genius going on and picked him up to make sure he didn't get the yardage....:funny:

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

there's more in the link if you haven't clicked.

I haven't yet

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52 minutes ago, Air2theThrown said:

Pride of Detroit’s breakdown of the matchup. I think it’s a good write up from Detroit’s point of view. Curious what you all think?

 

I would say it seems fairly accurate. 
 

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2020/10/30/21539895/detroit-lions-indianapolis-colts-preview-prediction-on-paper

 

21 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

there's more in the link if you haven't clicked.

That's a great write up. Thanks for sharing.

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22 minutes ago, w87r said:

Maybe he would have?

 

Maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way? Maybe Lions had some evil genius going on and picked him up to make sure he didn't get the yardage....:funny:

I haven't yet

I would have loved us to pick up a good vet RB after Mack went down. AP would have been perfect.

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50 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I would have loved us to pick up a good vet RB after Mack went down. AP would have been perfect.

I hear ya, but it just makes me think how many carries Taylor would have at this point?

 

Already doesn't have enough, imo. Would probably be cut in half.

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36 minutes ago, w87r said:

I hear ya, but it just makes me think how many carries Taylor would have at this point?

 

Already doesn't have enough, imo. Would probably be cut in half.

I think they had a plan for Taylor going into the season, and tried to stick to it. He's coming from a really different blocking scheme and I think they expected it would take him a while to adjust to the timing. I do think they should have ramped it up a bit more though. And I also think they used Hines to much when they should of used JT or JW. 

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On 10/30/2020 at 4:24 PM, EastStreet said:

 

General Notes
1. On paper, our D should shut down their O, and on paper, their D is below average in just about ever aspect 
2. On paper, our passing game should handily beat their passing D
3. On paper, our rushing O vs their rushing D is a wash, but many of the talking heads and fantasy folks love our rush O a lot more.
4. Peterson has been their bell cow, but Swift has been more productive. Swifts carries have increased the last two games, so don't be shocked to see that continue. He has 5 total TDs vs AP's 2. 
5. Stafford seems to deal his passes around, with 5 different players getting between 25 and 31 targets each.
6. Stafford is coming off his best game last week, and he's won two in a row on the road. Both with good QBRs.
7. Only one bad loss (@GB) early for Detroit. Their other 2 losses were at home early to the Bears, and later to NO. Both by less than a TD.
8. Both Amendola and Golladay are top 10ish in AVG

 

Prediction - I just don't know what to expect from our offense. I'd love to see good balance, but could see either passing or rushing having a good day. While on paper our D should dominate thier O, I could see Stafford having a very good day if we play soft zone. I could see either team winning a close one. I'd love to see us start to look the part, and win it going away though by dominating both sides of the ball. Doubt that happens, and expect a close one.


Line: Colts -3
O/U: 50.5


Colts Offense vs Detroits Defense
Total Yards - #19 vs #22
Passing Yards - #10 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #28 vs #26
Points - #14 vs #20

 

Colts Defense vs Detroit's Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #23
Passing Yards - #2 vs #20
Rushing Yards - #3 vs #18
Points - #4 vs #15

 

Colts sacks allowed vs Detroit sacks
#1 least (6) vs #28 (8)

Colts sacks vs vs Detroits sacks allowed
#18 (13) vs #17 (14)

Colts QB INTs vs Detroits Defensive INTs
#19 (6) vs #16 (5)

Colts Defensive INTs vs Detroits QB INTs
#1 (10) vs #9 (4)

Colts RZ O vs Detroits RZ D
#27 vs #22

Colts RZ D vs Detroit's RZ O
#20 vs #18

Colts 3rd Down O vs Detroits 3rd Down D
#23 vs #24

Colts 3rd Down D vs Detroits 3rd Down O
#15 vs #26

 

Injuries. 
Detroit - Starting LT (Decker), starging RB A Peterson,  and starting CB are all LP. All are questionable except for AP.

 

Indy -Kelly and Mo questionable. Kelly DNP, Mo was LP.

 


4for4 had this to say about our rush O vs their D


https://www.4for4.com/2020/w8/o-line-rankings-and-matchups-exploit-week-8

Man I hope we play on paper!

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24 minutes ago, Sumo63 said:

Man I hope we play on paper!

me too lol....

 

that's why i stressed on paper. i have a feeling it will be a close one.

 

i don't have the trust in our pass D that the paper suggests.

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Just now, EastStreet said:

me too lol....

 

that's why i stressed on paper. i have a feeling it will be a close one.

 

i don't have the trust in our pass D that the paper suggests.

I think its a toss up.  I was at the opener 4 years ago when Stafford drove down the field in the 4th like we were the 2020 falcons.  Paganos fear filled eyes writ large on the jumbotron.....

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1 minute ago, Sumo63 said:

I think its a toss up.  I was at the opener 4 years ago when Stafford drove down the field in the 4th like we were the 2020 falcons.  Paganos fear filled eyes writ large on the jumbotron.....

Well i absolutely think our D is better than back then. I don't think we're top 5 though, especially pass D. 

 

The soft zone scares me more than anything. If they are looking at film and stats, I think they'll try to attack the seam and deep. Not sure how much motion they use, but wouldn't be surprised if they use it to read our D. We definitely have some areas to exploit that haven't been tested yet. Stafford is the savviest guy we've met so far, and I'm sure he'll test us.

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Well i absolutely think our D is better than back then. I don't think we're top 5 though, especially pass D. 

 

The soft zone scares me more than anything. If they are looking at film and stats, I think they'll try to attack the seam and deep. Not sure how much motion they use, but wouldn't be surprised if they use it to read our D. We definitely have some areas to exploit that haven't been tested yet. Stafford is the savviest guy we've met so far, and I'm sure he'll test us.

Dude, the soft zone........kills me a little every time its employed.  Stafford will carve it up.

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8 minutes ago, Sumo63 said:

Dude, the soft zone........kills me a little every time its employed.  Stafford will carve it up.

Yep. We've played some man sprinkled in, but still early games seems like prevent D sometimes. 

 

It'll be interesting to see how much of the rip/liz stuff we mix in. I really wish it was aired here so I could DVR it instead of streaming. I love doing a rewatch to look closer at the D. I'd love to see more of the rip/liz stuff if our LBs can play well with the handoffs, and Blackmon can handle the deep single high stuff. IMO this will be Blackmon's first big test this year. He's moving up my favs list, I just want to see him tested on the backpedal on the single high stuff.

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I think hes going to be really good.  I see him as a potential Leonard level infulence in the backfield.  (Based on his career of 6 games lol).  I can like the dude tho.  Hes demonstrated his playmaking ability.  If he develops from there......

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7 minutes ago, Sumo63 said:

I think hes going to be really good.  I see him as a potential Leonard level infulence in the backfield.  (Based on his career of 6 games lol).  I can like the dude tho.  Hes demonstrated his playmaking ability.  If he develops from there......

Too early to fall in love, but I really like him lol. I knew he'd be a big hitter. Some of his tape, like the Oregon game had some devastating hits.  Just want to see more coverage. 

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