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According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

Good stat, and it shows how good Taylor is honestly. He is still averaging over 4 yards the last 4 games per carry and 5 last week. If Rivers starts playing like last week, maybe we can finally have a balanced offense.

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6 minutes ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

By term "stacked box", does that mean 8 or more men in Box?

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Just now, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

By term "stacked box", does that mean 8 or more men in Box?

 

Yes.  Another factor is the amount of throws out of the backfield.  You need guys in the box or you can't cover those routes effectively.  We don't have anyone taking the top off the D, that's for sure.  

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It is my unpopular opinion that Taylor's limitations also hurt the running game.  Teams don't have to worry about Taylor shaking anybody and creating a lot of yardage.  He has good yac with the power in the 2nd level but I would assume he is near the bottom at making people miss.  You can crowd the box when you aren't afraid of a LB losing his shorts and that being a TD.  Taylor will outrun poeple when there is a lane but he absolutely needs the lane right now.  He is very uncreative.  He is going to be a one cut guy, they can be effective, but  they have to have elite vision and anticipation.  JT definitely does not have that right now.

 

 

 

That is why he is most impressive in his few receptions.  He is in open field and can burst.  

 

I  think the biggest difference between the ypc last year to this year is the RB situaiton.

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54 minutes ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

Been plenty occasions where the line flat out gets stood up man on man  they haven’t looked as great as last year when they had to block for jb unfortunately can’t blame them vs stacked boxes but also can’t ignore what’s on film 

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37 minutes ago, Nickster said:

It is my unpopular opinion that Taylor's limitations also hurt the running game.  Teams don't have to worry about Taylor shaking anybody and creating a lot of yardage.  He has good yac with the power in the 2nd level but I would assume he is near the bottom at making people miss.  You can crowd the box when you aren't afraid of a LB losing his shorts and that being a TD.  Taylor will outrun poeple when there is a lane but he absolutely needs the lane right now.  He is very uncreative.  He is going to be a one cut guy, they can be effective, but  they have to have elite vision and anticipation.  JT definitely does not have that right now.

 

 

 

That is why he is most impressive in his few receptions.  He is in open field and can burst.  

 

I  think the biggest difference between the ypc last year to this year is the RB situaiton.

That doesn't necessarily mean he will never improve in those areas. He seems to be playing better each week and that's exactly what the Colts need from him.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

It's more like teams started figuring out Reich's dink/dunk, and started playing tighter. After game 1, the passing attempts decreased. Rivers is #5 in deep ball accuracy, so it's not like he can't throw it downfield. We've seen him do at times, with a top 10 rate of success. If he's #5, that means he's consistent. That means it's lack of play calling.

 

Also, you can't ignore some of the inconsistent or bad OL performances. Mack, Hicks, Garrett, and Jack were all getting good pressure, especially Garrett. 

 

As far as the running game, Taylor is a rook, is coming from a power/gap scheme, and will need time to get his timing down with our zone scheme. It took Mack almost a year to get it down.

43 minutes ago, chad72 said:

It is more an indictment of Reich's predictable play calling, IMO. 

Bingo

42 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Yes.  Another factor is the amount of throws out of the backfield.  You need guys in the box or you can't cover those routes effectively.  We don't have anyone taking the top off the D, that's for sure.  

Not having guys deep, or having too many early read short pasing, is a function of play calling. 

24 minutes ago, Nickster said:

It is my unpopular opinion that Taylor's limitations also hurt the running game.  Teams don't have to worry about Taylor shaking anybody and creating a lot of yardage.  He has good yac with the power in the 2nd level but I would assume he is near the bottom at making people miss.  You can crowd the box when you aren't afraid of a LB losing his shorts and that being a TD.  Taylor will outrun poeple when there is a lane but he absolutely needs the lane right now.  He is very uncreative.  He is going to be a one cut guy, they can be effective, but  they have to have elite vision and anticipation.  JT definitely does not have that right now.

 

That is why he is most impressive in his few receptions.  He is in open field and can burst.  

 

I  think the biggest difference between the ypc last year to this year is the RB situaiton.

Good lord he's a rook. Took Mack a year to get his timing down. He's coming from a power/gap and now learning zone. And he's having to do that with play calling that draws the D tighter.... 

 

He's got the same AVG as Elliot and Peterson, and has a better AVG than McCaffery, Mixon, and Jacobs. I get it, he's not setting the world on fire, but he's not terrible either.

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1 hour ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

 

Kinda alarming but doesn't quite make sense in that particular way. Does that mean people thought Brissett was going to throw it down field more then? I think the stats proved that Rivers has thrown down field more. 

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

It is more an indictment of Reich's predictable play calling, IMO. 

 

Maybe taking that a step further , could it be that there's too much predictability from our formations ? Seems like with so many of his runs there appears to be like 16 men on defense. I think often the defense flows toward the run at the snap. Could it be that  teams know we run like 80% of time out of a certain formation ?

 

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12 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

If Rivers can play like he did Sunday vs the Lions that should make that stat go down some.

 

The Lions actually played the run well vs the Jags coming off their bye. Every team makes adjustments, won't remain putrid on a particular facet forever. So, like you said, the Lions will force Rivers to beat them by ganging up on the run. 

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11 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

Maybe taking that a step further , could it be that there's too much predictability from our formations ? Seems like with so many of his runs there appears to be like 16 men on defense. I think often the defense flows toward the run at the snap. Could it be that  teams know we run like 80% of time out of a certain formation ?

 

 

Whatever it is, it flies in the face of what they have said (Reich and Sirianni), that they wanted to be "unpredictable". 

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2 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

So is that percentage on plays where JT ran the ball or is the percentage on plays where JT was lined up in the backfield?

 

The reason I'm asking is because if it's on plays where JT runs the ball, then it adds credence to @chad72 comment about the predictability of Reich's play calling.  If it's on plays were JT is in the backfield, then I think it shows more that teams are not as worried about the Colts going deep in the passing game whether that is because of Rivers or because the Colts don't have a receiver that can take the top off a defense is open for debate.

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17 minutes ago, dw49 said:

Could it be that  teams know we run like 80% of time out of a certain formation ?

That's another issue all in itself.

 

I personally think it is tough to get going down hill, when starting from a standstill. Which Taylor usually is, from the shotgun formation.

 

Would love to see the percentage of plays we run from shotgun.

 

Way to many, but that is where Rivers is most comfortable.

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8 minutes ago, w87r said:

That's another issue all in itself.

 

I personally think it is tough to get going down hill, when starting from a standstill. Which Taylor usually is, from the shotgun formation.

 

Would love to see the percentage of plays we run from shotgun.

 

Way to many, but that is where Rivers is most comfortable.

24% under center (broken down 79% run / 21% pass)

76% shotgun (broken down 32% run / 68% pass)

 

 

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2 hours ago, Nickster said:

It is my unpopular opinion that Taylor's limitations also hurt the running game.  Teams don't have to worry about Taylor shaking anybody and creating a lot of yardage.  He has good yac with the power in the 2nd level but I would assume he is near the bottom at making people miss.  You can crowd the box when you aren't afraid of a LB losing his shorts and that being a TD.  Taylor will outrun poeple when there is a lane but he absolutely needs the lane right now.  He is very uncreative.  He is going to be a one cut guy, they can be effective, but  they have to have elite vision and anticipation.  JT definitely does not have that right now.

 

 

 

That is why he is most impressive in his few receptions.  He is in open field and can burst.  

 

I  think the biggest difference between the ypc last year to this year is the RB situaiton.

Finally someone who sees it for how it is. I really like JT but his vision imo is a glaring issue and is what is preventing him from being an elite RB already. We saw guys like zeke and saquon pop off year 1 and I believe that physically, JT is better than both of those guys. I think right now he is thinking about what to do at every level of the play instead of saying "oh, if the play unfolds like this, this lane will be open and then I can beat this guy at this angle." I think while Marlon didn't have the size, his vision is pretty much what catapulted him into a top 10 RB status.

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8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

24% under center (broken down 79% run / 21% pass)

76% shotgun (broken down 32% run / 68% pass)

 

 

Thanks,

 

How many of those under centers are GL or short yardage situations?

 

Was a little surprised by that.

 

Seems like a lot more shotgun snaps while watching. Still a lot though.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

That's another issue all in itself.

 

I personally think it is tough to get going down hill, when starting from a standstill. Which Taylor usually is, from the shotgun formation.

 

Would love to see the percentage of plays we run from shotgun.

 

Way to many, but that is where Rivers is most comfortable.

 

 

good point

 

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40 minutes ago, bestQBever said:

Finally someone who sees it for how it is. I really like JT but his vision imo is a glaring issue and is what is preventing him from being an elite RB already. We saw guys like zeke and saquon pop off year 1 and I believe that physically, JT is better than both of those guys. I think right now he is thinking about what to do at every level of the play instead of saying "oh, if the play unfolds like this, this lane will be open and then I can beat this guy at this angle." I think while Marlon didn't have the size, his vision is pretty much what catapulted him into a top 10 RB status.

You guys really need to look at where these guys went to college (and what scheme they ran), and where they ended up. Wiscy is heavy power and a unique mix of zone and gap, and Taylor ended up in Indy who runs a lot of simple zone (with very little power/2 back sets). Totally different. OSU runs wide, and a combination of power/gap/tight-zone. Elliot went to the Cowboys who also runs wide, but uses a lot of power and even a lot of 21. 

 

What does that mean? It means Elliot went to a similar scheme and had less to learn, and also a good dose of lead blocker (power) to help. Taylor went to a new system, where he needs to get use to the timing of zone scheme (patience) without the help of a FB, instead of busting/smashing in a power scheme. You'll probably notice Taylor looks pretty decent on outside zone, which is a similar play that Wiscy runs. Wiscy also uses double and triple pulls. I've included a link below if you care to read about Wiscy's O. Doesn't look much like Indy's.... Wiscy plays tonight at 8pm if interested.

 

And it took Mack a while to adjust. Mack had only a 3.8 AVG his first year, which Taylor has already surpassed. And guess what... Taylor has the same AVG as Elliot this year.

 

https://www.thedailystampede.com/2019/8/15/20806114/watching-film-the-refined-brutality-of-the-wisconsin-offense-badgers-usf-football-jonathan-taylor

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

Thanks,

 

How many of those under centers are GL or short yardage situations?

 

Was a little surprised by that.

 

Seems like a lot more shotgun snaps while watching. Still a lot though.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html

here ya go.

you can adjust yard-to-go, field zone, and more.

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2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Whatever it is, it flies in the face of what they have said (Reich and Sirianni), that they wanted to be "unpredictable". 

We’re trying to figure things out without a ton of players we’ve been counting on.

 

- Pittman

- Campbell 

- Mack

- At least one of our tight ends has missed at least one game, and in some games we’ve had two tight ends out.

 

We are down a ton of play making talent.  This enables defenses to focus on Hilton and force the Colts to beat teams with our lesser weapons. 
 

This is not as simple or as black n white as some here would have you believe. 

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1 hour ago, bestQBever said:

Finally someone who sees it for how it is. I really like JT but his vision imo is a glaring issue and is what is preventing him from being an elite RB already. We saw guys like zeke and saquon pop off year 1 and I believe that physically, JT is better than both of those guys. I think right now he is thinking about what to do at every level of the play instead of saying "oh, if the play unfolds like this, this lane will be open and then I can beat this guy at this angle." I think while Marlon didn't have the size, his vision is pretty much what catapulted him into a top 10 RB status.

marlon did not look good his first year though . it was not until last year he started looking amazing . in 2018 he started playing better .   taylor has the same ability as mack , look at his 40 time and skill set its around the same .  Even last year marlon in the first half of games most of the time was not that great and by frank staying with the run it warmed marlon up to go off in the second half . It almost seems like they put taylor in he starts to get warn make a couple of good runs then is pulled and he cools off .

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6 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis.

 

 

Through six games, Rivers leads the league in big-time throws in the first half (per PFF) and is top 5 in deep throw accuracy. 
 

Why do you guys have to blame Rivers for everything. 

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5 hours ago, Nickster said:

It is my unpopular opinion that Taylor's limitations also hurt the running game.  Teams don't have to worry about Taylor shaking anybody and creating a lot of yardage.  He has good yac with the power in the 2nd level but I would assume he is near the bottom at making people miss.  You can crowd the box when you aren't afraid of a LB losing his shorts and that being a TD.  Taylor will outrun poeple when there is a lane but he absolutely needs the lane right now.  He is very uncreative.  He is going to be a one cut guy, they can be effective, but  they have to have elite vision and anticipation.  JT definitely does not have that right now.

 

 

 

That is why he is most impressive in his few receptions.  He is in open field and can burst.  

 

I  think the biggest difference between the ypc last year to this year is the RB situaiton.

We’ve had our share of “dancing” RBs.  I’ll take Taylor’s style over that every time.  He gets the yards that are there.

  Give him some time, the big runs are coming.  If he gets more consistent blocking on the 2nd level, like from the WRs, his average will increase.

 But the guy rarely loses yards, has the necessary speed, can power thru guys when necessary, and has been very exciting on screens and short passes.  He’s had a good number of big gains that way.

  Losing Pittman and Campbell has affected more of this offense than i think we realize. Pitt is the “Funchess” of last year. Remember how important that chess piece loss was a year ago?  And Campbell was the guy that could extend the field .... quickly.  With those two on the field, i’d love to see some defenses stack the box.

  I also think Ds may stack more because of Rivers immobility than being unable to throw downfield.  Rivers cant extend plays like others, cutting down the time DBs need to cover.  Add in Reich’s love of quick hitting passes and RBs and TEs heavily utilized in passing and it makes sense forDs to favor playing more guys up.

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1 minute ago, Bolts2Colts said:

Through six games, Rivers leads the league in big-time throws in the first half (per PFF) and is top 5 in deep throw accuracy. 
 

Why do you guys have to blame Rivers for everything. 

 

Because QB, and QB INTs are the easiest bright shiny object to go after if you're too lazy to compare vs the league, or unable to subjectively critique all aspects and context.

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8 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

According to Next Gen Stats 

 

 

"Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has faced a stacked box on 27.27% of his carries this season. 5th most in the NFL (min 30 attempts)."

 

 

 

Last season, Marlon Mack saw a stacked box on 12.15% of his carries. 39th in the NFL (min 85 carries).

 

 

Nobody fears Rivers ability to throw the ball downfield until he proves he can do it on a consistent basis. The Bengals game was a start and Marcus Johnson will help stretch the field. People should stop pointing fingers at the offensive line and dig more deeper into why the running game hasn't been better than it was last year. Loosing Mack hurt a lot more than people thought as well. The Lions give up a ton of yards on the ground and if the running game is going the time is now!

 

 

A bit of a reach you're making here.  There's no evidence that stat has anything to do with opponents fearing Rivers' ability to throw downfield.  You come off as an irrational Rivers hater to be honest.

 

As others have pointed out, Rivers has been pretty deadly when going deep compared to the rest of the league. You also ignore the fact that this stat is for actual JT running plays - not all plays - as well as the fact that the stat is likely skewed by the fact that in half of our games we ran clock for the majority of the second half.  Of course the D is gonna stack the box in those situations.

 

Do you happen to know which 4 RBs have faced a higher percentage of stacked boxes on their runs?  And if so, do you also claim it's because those QBs are not "feared"?

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6 hours ago, w87r said:

That's another issue all in itself.

 

I personally think it is tough to get going down hill, when starting from a standstill. Which Taylor usually is, from the shotgun formation.

 

Would love to see the percentage of plays we run from shotgun.

 

Way to many, but that is where Rivers is most comfortable.

The quoted stat says JT runs.

 

The OP took that and somehow twisted it into an indictment on Rivers.  Pretty stupid post honestly.

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11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

It's more like teams started figuring out Reich's dink/dunk, and started playing tighter. After game 1, the passing attempts decreased. Rivers is #5 in deep ball accuracy, so it's not like he can't throw it downfield. We've seen him do at times, with a top 10 rate of success. If he's #5, that means he's consistent. That means it's lack of play calling.

 

Also, you can't ignore some of the inconsistent or bad OL performances. Mack, Hicks, Garrett, and Jack were all getting good pressure, especially Garrett. 

 

As far as the running game, Taylor is a rook, is coming from a power/gap scheme, and will need time to get his timing down with our zone scheme. It took Mack almost a year to get it down.

Bingo

Not having guys deep, or having too many early read short pasing, is a function of play calling. 

Good lord he's a rook. Took Mack a year to get his timing down. He's coming from a power/gap and now learning zone. And he's having to do that with play calling that draws the D tighter.... 

 

He's got the same AVG as Elliot and Peterson, and has a better AVG than McCaffery, Mixon, and Jacobs. I get it, he's not setting the world on fire, but he's not terrible either.

Don’t be so emotional Estreet.  We are analyzing here.  I said right now.

 

I don’t understand why JT is getting the Brisett treatment this year.

 

the narrative in the echo chamber here is the line sucks, Reich sucks, rivers sucks, the receivers suck and that’s why we don’t run well.  seems far fetched.  JT will be a useful pro but I think he will have limitations and will need a complimentary back

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9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You guys really need to look at where these guys went to college (and what scheme they ran), and where they ended up. Wiscy is heavy power and a unique mix of zone and gap, and Taylor ended up in Indy who runs a lot of simple zone (with very little power/2 back sets). Totally different. OSU runs wide, and a combination of power/gap/tight-zone. Elliot went to the Cowboys who also runs wide, but uses a lot of power and even a lot of 21. 

 

What does that mean? It means Elliot went to a similar scheme and had less to learn, and also a good dose of lead blocker (power) to help. Taylor went to a new system, where he needs to get use to the timing of zone scheme (patience) without the help of a FB, instead of busting/smashing in a power scheme. You'll probably notice Taylor looks pretty decent on outside zone, which is a similar play that Wiscy runs. Wiscy also uses double and triple pulls. I've included a link below if you care to read about Wiscy's O. Doesn't look much like Indy's.... Wiscy plays tonight at 8pm if interested.

 

And it took Mack a while to adjust. Mack had only a 3.8 AVG his first year, which Taylor has already surpassed. And guess what... Taylor has the same AVG as Elliot this year.

 

https://www.thedailystampede.com/2019/8/15/20806114/watching-film-the-refined-brutality-of-the-wisconsin-offense-badgers-usf-football-jonathan-taylor

You just basically repeated what I’ve been saying for weeks about Wisco.  Thanks.

 

beng from Wisco is a negative predicter of an effective nfl rusher too.

 

it is also my dispassionate analysis that this years line is quite. Bit better than the one Mack stated behind and that his 3.8 almost certainly would have been better with a better line.

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14 hours ago, w87r said:

That's another issue all in itself.

 

I personally think it is tough to get going down hill, when starting from a standstill. Which Taylor usually is, from the shotgun formation.

 

Would love to see the percentage of plays we run from shotgun.

 

Way to many, but that is where Rivers is most comfortable.

Exactly right, play action from under center also lends itself to taking the big shots.  We're way too shotgun heavy for a team that wants to lean on the run game and set up play action.  That's part of the reason we're not getting the deep ball as much as we like.  Some people think that we need faster receivers, that's not the issue. It's two fold, it's what Rivers wants (shotgun) so we cater to it because he's the qb and he's so slow afoot by the time he hits his drop in play action the short route windows have already expired, meaning crossers and slants have entered the coverage zone, too slow.  

 

Right now the totality of this offense is driven by one guy, I've said from week one, this team will go as far as Philip can take it.  What offenses fail to realize is zone read is totally pointless if the QB is neve going to keep it.  That makes it easier for the defense to read and react as well.  So not only is it easier for Philip to read a defense but its also easier for the defense to read Philip. 

 

I'll close by saying, I never wanted Rivers here but now that he is, I do like him personally, and he can still be wildly effective when protected.  That scenario will only take us so far.  I have a strong suspicion who our QB may be for 2021 but I'm going to sit on that for a bit...

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3 hours ago, Nickster said:

Don’t be so emotional Estreet.  We are analyzing here.  I said right now.

 

I don’t understand why JT is getting the Brisett treatment this year.

 

the narrative in the echo chamber here is the line sucks, Reich sucks, rivers sucks, the receivers suck and that’s why we don’t run well.  seems far fetched.  JT will be a useful pro but I think he will have limitations and will need a complimentary back

Not being emotional. Just calling out silly, which this is. Why is it silly? And why is it silly "right now"?

 

1) JT is outperforming Mack's first year significantly, and at the same time, being asked to do much more (running and catching).

AVG 3.8 vs 4.1

RunYPG 25.6 vs 61.2

RcvYPG 16.1 vs 27.0

 

2) JT currently has the same AVG as Elliot, and a better AVG than McCaffery, Jacobs, and Mixon all highly regarded.

3) In terms of first years, Taylor is doing better than McCaffery, And is doing better than year 2 of Gurley

4) Our scheme/play calling doesn't help Taylor at all, and actually hurts him. That will change if Reich keeps things open.

5) JT is learning a new system. His vision will come as he learns our zone blocking scheme.

 

JT isn't getting the Brissett treatment this year. Brissett wasn't a rookie last year, didn't have an amazing and proven track record at a big school, etc., JB performed the way he's always performed since college, so folks defending him didn't really know his past, or have realistic expectations of his ceiling. He was still struggling with the exact same things he struggled with in college. 

 

The case is not the same for JT. JT has a higher ceiling, a proven track record at a big school, just needs time to adjust, and is already outperforming his predecessor while doing more at the same time.

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4 hours ago, Nickster said:

You just basically repeated what I’ve been saying for weeks about Wisco.  Thanks.

 

beng from Wisco is a negative predicter of an effective nfl rusher too.

LOL, just like being a Wisconsin QB is a negative predictor...Hello Russell Wilson. 

4 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

it is also my dispassionate analysis that this years line is quite. Bit better than the one Mack stated behind and that his 3.8 almost certainly would have been better with a better line.

Your dispassionate analysis fails to consider we were running an Air Coryell system that year, which is hugely beneficial to RBs. It spreads out the entire D, and does not allow for tight fronts or stacked boxes. It's an incredible benefit to RBs. Indy on the other hand, is a dink and dunk, which actually promotes Ds to play up and congest the box.

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    • If I had to guess, Rivers will be back on the books.
    • Typically to be a HOFer you have to be dominant for ~a decade.  Leonard and Q are ~2.5 years into their careers (about a quarter of the way there).  Leonard has not played 16 games in a season yet, which is somewhat concerning to me.  This year, while he and Q both look very good, I don't think either is deserving of an all-pro award.     So yes, very impressive that Q has been 1st team all-pro 2x and Leonard has a 1st and 2nd team all-pro under his belt.  That is very rare (Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus are the only other 2 teammates who made 1st team all-pro as rookies).  In no way am I knocking Q or Leonard, they're both critical pieces to this team and at the elite level in the NFL at their respective positions.  Labeling them as HOFers this early into their career is a bit of a stretch, though -- let's give them another 3.5-4 years to see if they're still healthy and performing at an all-pro level.  They're certainly off to a good start, but there are a lot of players who have made 2 all-pro teams in their career and are not HOFers (heck, LeRoy Butler was a 4x 1st-team all-pro and has been eligible for HOF induction for ~15 years and isn't in, Steve Wisniewski was 2x 1st team, 6x 2nd team and not in, etc.).  Also, the vast majority of HOFers were not first team all-pro as rookies.  These 2020 rookies are in perhaps the strangest year of the modern era, with limited training camps, no pre-season games, missing games due to COVID (see Taylor), etc.... Pittman, Taylor, Blackmon have all shown flashes of excellence and all have had their own obstacles on top of a weird off-season as rookies (Blackmon coming off injury getting thrown into starting line-up due to HOoker going down, Taylor having Mack go down and now missing a game on the COVID list, and Pittman with compartment syndrome).   No reason to expect any of them to be HOFers, but also no reason why if they stay healthy and continue improving that we don't start talking about them being at the HOF level in 4-5 more years.     In all honesty, it is way too early to tell if this class will stack up to the 2018 class.  We really won't know for another 4-5 years when we see which guys from the 2018 draft are given/not given contract extensions and when the current class is at the same point.      As far as just judging by rookie season alone, it's not unreasonable to think it won't be another >30 years before we see rookie teammates on the first team all-pro squad together (believe Butkus and Sayers was 1965).  That said, aside from Q and Leonard we got solid contributions from Smith and Hines on O, saw solid ST contributions from Franklin and Adams (with Franklin playing a minimal D role as a fill-in starter 2 games and Adams basically invisible on D), got very little from Turay and Lewis and basically nothing from Fountain, Cain.  Wilkins was OK as a 3rd RB and OK as a kick returner and our only UDFA who did anything noteworthy wad Odum as a solid STer and with a couple decent starts when he was needed due to injury.   Overall we had 4 of 11 picks (or 4 of 12 rookies who contributed) who really didn't do much as rookies (33% vs. 66% percent who contributed significantly in some aspect of the game).     So in short, the 2018 class as rookies had 2 studs (Q and Leonard), 2 guys who contributed solidly on O (Hines and Smith), 4 solid ST contributors (Odum, Adams, Franklin, Wilkins), 4 guys who really did nothing (Turay, Lewis, Cain, Fountain).   Three years later, we still have 2 studs (Q and Leonard), 1 very solid RT (Smith),  2 guys who are doing well in a RB rotation (Hines and Wilkins), 2 unknowns on the DL (Lewis and Turay - by far Lewis' best year, but he hasn't really been great), and 3 solid STers (Odum, Franklin, Adams and 4 if you count Hines).   Then we have Cain (gone) and Fountain (still pretty much doing nothing).  Again, about 2/3 of these guys are still contributing solidly in some way on the team, with the other 1/3 still unknown or not doing much (Turay started to come on last year and Lewis is recently coming on this year, so if they both continue, we may see 83% of that class as solid contributors moving forward).     The 2020 class as rookies -- we have 1 borderline stud (Blackmon), 2 very solid  O contributors (Taylor and Pittman), 3 very solid ST contributors (Rodgers, Glasgow, Blankenship), 1 guy who has been OK in a pinch as a backup or extra lineman (Pinter), 1 guy who has made the active roster after mostly being on the PS (Windsor - IMO, he's about as valuable to this year's team as Lewis was at the same point in 2018), 1 guy who has been very solid the past few weeks (Harris) and 2 guys (Eason and Patmon) who have been on the roster but inactive.  That puts us at 7 or 8 guys who have been solid contributors out of 11 as rookies (63% or 72%) and 3 or 4 guys (Eason, Patmon, Windsor, maybe Pinter) for a total of 27-36% of rookies who are not doing much at this point of the season (this could change moving forward if Pinter has to fill in for Kelly for a while and/or if Windsor takes on a bigger role down the stretch, it is not coincidence to me that he was activated the week we cut Day).  So right now, we're looking at 30-40% of our rookies not producing too much, but this could change to 20% (assuming Eason and Patmon don't play this year and Pinter and Windsor see increasing roles).     Overall, Ballard is >60% in both drafts in terms of having productive players as rookies.  It is very unlikely we'll see any team have 2 first team all-pros as rookies again in the near future (or ever).  We may see a DROY from the 2020 draft class like we saw in the 2018 draft class on this team.  Both Leonard and Blackmon have been criticized for being picked too early, etc... Ballard has proven those doubters wrong.     When we look back in a few years, if Eason is a franchise QB and Pittman and Patmon are a solid WR duo (perhaps Harris is still performing well), Taylor is a bellcow >1,200 yard rusher, Blackmon is an all-pro, Pinter is a starter (RG or RT), Rodgers is giving us a TD or more per year as a return guy, Glasgow is a solid STer, Hot Rod is a probowl K, and Windsor is still in the DL rotation and this draft could be better than the 2018 draft.  Again, too early to tell.  If we want to consider Buckner a part of the 2020 draft (the 13th pick), I think there's a good argument that the 2020 draft will exceed the 2018 draft.   Also, something to keep in mind -- our team was in very bad shape when Ballard took over.  In 2017, he was drafting for a team with a coach we pretty much all knew was going to be gone in a year.  In 2018, it was a lot easier to get significant playing time on the roster (at least IMO) because it was so bad.  In a short time, Ballard has put a lot of solid pieces together and this team is a much more difficult team to make the final roster, let alone get significant playing time as a rookie.     I agree with you on your Blackmon assessment.  It'd be cool if he got DROY... and he has made several key plays at critical times (e.g., forced fumble in OT last week)... but he's not perfect.  TBH, I think it was kind of disappointing that the long ball from Rodgers to MVS was not broken up near the end of the 4th quarter.  Blackmon was a step or two behind, but I think most very high end safeties would have broken that play up.     McDaniels dissing Ballard may have actually made Ballard's job easier.  I think Reich was the right guy for this team and after seeing Patricia fired from DET, and looking at stats of Belichick's coordinators who went on to head coaching jobs, they have a pretty poor track record.     Yes, I think Q and Leonard's play has been solid this year, but I don't think either of them deserve to be all-pros (at least not 1st team).  Won't be shocked if Q gets selected though, mainly because of his name and the fact Baldy and other reporters like to really focus on his positive plays.  He's been beaten more this year than I can remember (which is still not a lot) and has more holds than I remember in his first 2 years.     Agree, the most deserving of all-pro on this roster is Buckner (though, I can't see him getting the nod due to lack of stats and the fact that Donald and other interior DL in the league are playing at very high levels).  Second most deserving, IMO, is Hot Rod -- he's likely to be leading the league in points scored after tomorrow's game.  Just hit a big game winner.  Has a solid chance of ending the season >90% FG made and leading the league in points scored -- it'd be hard to vote against him for at least 2nd team K if he finishes the year >90% FG made and leads league in points.
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