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Perspective: Through 6 games - Luck 2018 vs Rivers 2020


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Truth?

Luck threw a way better deep ball than Rivers. Rivers is way better at those short crossing routes than Luck ever was. 

 

I like focusing on what each QB does for the shoe....rather than what they dont do. :2c:

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the thing also about the number of picks is luck had two games throwing 60 times each .   if you look at passes per game luck was over 50 passes per game rivers is around 30 so on picks per throws rivers has more picks .    If you wanna know what really changed in 2018 it was the run game .   lucks passes per game dropped and the colts starting running the ball down teams throats which opened up throwing lanes for luck .   

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50 minutes ago, Riversrun said:

Not enough talent to compete with the elite teams sorry !! Either get a trade with elite WR or seasons a joke going forward .

the colts WR's are hurt they are coming back .  Paris cambell is a beast he gets crazy separation and runs a 4.22  he is the next tyreke hill .  Pittman is a vincett jackson clone .   If ty can go back to playing at a high level with cambell pittman and these 3 really good tight ends the colts are fine.    Give me a balanced team over a team stacked with skill players any day .   The colts need to get the defense back on track and the run game then they are fine .

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12 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

I touched on this before.

 

Things turned around while Luck was down 0-21 and then Frank opened it up and Luck started slinging even though we lost on a 4th down call to go down vs Texans to go 1-3 in 2018. Fast forward to 2020, once we got down 0-21 vs the Bengals, things started opening up. Frank has to stay ahead of the sticks and start calling for more passes on early downs. I hope we start using everyone on the roster that is a pass catcher and not wait on Campbell and Pittman, and when they come back it will be a bonus.

Yup. I'm not saying we need to go pass happy, but we need good balance, and creativity from the start. I always say 1st down should be 50 pass / 50 run downs. Never let them guess what you're doing. 2nd and short is a great down and distance to take a shot downfield. 2nd and long is always a great down to shoot the edge with a RB. Bottom line, like you said, stay ahead of the sticks. The only down that should be predictable, is 3rd and short, and with our OL, we should be able to pick that up running.

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8 hours ago, PrNum1 said:

 

Great post ! Thanks for sharing !

 

7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Great thread as usual @EastStreet, Luck did go 9-1 to finish the season though. Having said that I like Rivers and think we can go 10-6 again.

 

Thanks guys. Just found the perspective interesting. Sure the INTs concern me, but they did in 2018 as well. 

Not suggesting we're going to go 9-1, but every team on our schedule has shown itself vulnerable. If Luck can right the ship, no reason to believer Rivers can't play better as well down the stretch. 

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4 hours ago, atapcl said:

Luck team didn’t seem as talented especially on defense.

aside from the records, these are all O stats. 

See also the post above about supporting cast efficiency, and protection rate comparison stats.

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12 hours ago, Flash7 said:

One of the two was coming back from missing an entire year due to shoulder surgery.

 

No ones gonna mention that? Remember Brissett came in to throw a Hail Mary because Luck couldn’t?

 

Luck played horribly the first 5 games. Then he went on a tear! Let’s see how they stack up at The end of the season.

There's a lot of things I could mention. 

1. Rivers having a covid camp and not having preseason games

2. Luck having pre-existing chemistry with guys like TY and Doyle, but added new guys like Grant and Ebron.

3. Rivers with all new skill players, including 2 rooks, and another (PC) who is basically a rook. 

4. Luck missing Mack early 2018

 

There are a lot of obstacles for both.

 

BTW, you're being assumptive about the Hail Mary. IIRC, Reich came out immediately that week and said it wasn't because Luck couldn't throw it. And, I mean, Brissett does have a cannon, more than Luck ever did.

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12 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

Yes but if your comparing the two quarterbacks to say both are entering new systems is just pretty unfair to Luck

While there are similarities, 2020 Colts scheme with Reich is similar in some aspects, but very different than Reich in the LA days.

12 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

Can you do this again and throw Brisket's numbers in there? I'd be interested in seeing that (just for shiggles) 

I looked at JB's. Not going to post. It's what you'd expect. Low AVG, low INTs, low deep ball attempts, etc. 

It's also not a really good contrast. JB regressed as Ds figured him out as we know. Rivers and Luck's career #s have a ton of similarity. 

8 hours ago, stitches said:

We had the exact same thread last year but with Brissett... I will say today what I said back then - this is not a fair comparison for Rivers and this is not one he will win by the end of the season... because it ignores some very important distinctions. 

 

Luck had one of the worst OLs in the league in those first 5-6 games(both Smith and AC weren't playing in the beginning of the season - don't remember when exactly we put that OLine together but if I'm not mistaken it was about that time - week 5-6). Also, Luck was coming back from a career threatening shoulder injury and was obviously not comfortable making some of the more arm-strength demanding throws. Because of the lack of good pass-protection Reich was dialing up a dink and dunk game with TONS of passing but almost everything was short. In the long-term Rivers won't win that comparison. Week 6 is about where Luck started getting into his groove and trusting his arm again. He had a tremendous season by the end of it. I don't expect huge difference between Rivers weeks 1-6 and Rivers week 7-16. And I don't demand it. I think it's an unfair expectation and unfair comparison for Rivers. 

 

(BTW, for the record - I was pretty worried for Luck in the first 5-6 games of that season... I was starting to have my doubts about whether his arm is shot now and whether he will ever be the same again... it was a pretty bad stretch for him at the time)

Our OL was actually not bad early 2018. Did we give up some sacks? Yes, but we also played some good pass Ds, and good individual sack guys (WA, HOU, PHI). We still gave up multiple sacks in games later in the year as well (HOU again, Jax). But it is true the OL was in flux early. Smith started game 5 IIRC. Glow took over in game 6, and AC was back in game 6 as well.

 

I disagree though on Luck taking off after week 6. Luck actually played pretty well in week 1, and also had a very good game in week 4. He also had some duds late in the season like in Jax and Dallas. As far as dink and dunks go, Riech's O is a dink and dunk O with occasional deep shot. 

 

In short, both guys had things going against them, and for them. And as far as INTs, Luck had 83 INTs in 86 starts. Rivers has 204 INTs in 230 starts. Both guys had their share of INTs.

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We have played jax, min, jets, bears, browns, and Bengals.  We all knew we had a really easy start to the season up to the bye week.  Most of us predicted 5-1 or 6-0

 

Next 9 games are lions, ravens, titans, packers, titans, texans, raiders, texans, steelers.... not an easy stretch to close out the season

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https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/
Going to post this here. He played way better in 2019 then any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. He was 11TD’s and 3INT the first 6 games of 2019. He played through a leg injury, but was still our best option at QB that season. Very disrespectful for some of you to leave this out. 

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24 minutes ago, a06cc said:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/
Going to post this here. He played way better in 2019 then any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. He was 11TD’s and 3INT the first 6 games of 2019. He played through a leg injury, but was still our best option at QB that season. Very disrespectful for some of you to leave this out. 

Respect don't enter the mind when a scape goat is needed. 

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5 hours ago, Kyle said:

We have played jax, min, jets, bears, browns, and Bengals.  We all knew we had a really easy start to the season up to the bye week.  Most of us predicted 5-1 or 6-0

 

Next 9 games are lions, ravens, titans, packers, titans, texans, raiders, texans, steelers.... not an easy stretch to close out the season

I had us 4-2 actually, so we are right where I thought. I had us losing to Vikings and Browns. We lost to the Jags instead but beat the Vikings. I think we beat Detroit. My 10-6 prediction is still alive.

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18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

While there are similarities, 2020 Colts scheme with Reich is similar in some aspects, but very different than Reich in the LA days.

I looked at JB's. Not going to post. It's what you'd expect. Low AVG, low INTs, low deep ball attempts, etc. 

It's also not a really good contrast. JB regressed as Ds figured him out as we know. Rivers and Luck's career #s have a ton of similarity. 

Our OL was actually not bad early 2018. Did we give up some sacks? Yes, but we also played some good pass Ds, and good individual sack guys (WA, HOU, PHI). We still gave up multiple sacks in games later in the year as well (HOU again, Jax). But it is true the OL was in flux early. Smith started game 5 IIRC. Glow took over in game 6, and AC was back in game 6 as well.

 

I disagree though on Luck taking off after week 6. Luck actually played pretty well in week 1, and also had a very good game in week 4. He also had some duds late in the season like in Jax and Dallas. As far as dink and dunks go, Riech's O is a dink and dunk O with occasional deep shot. 

 

In short, both guys had things going against them, and for them. And as far as INTs, Luck had 83 INTs in 86 starts. Rivers has 204 INTs in 230 starts. Both guys had their share of INTs.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/

JB didn’t regress and I’d have to disagree with your take here. Deon Cain drew PI’s when JB targeted him. We also lacked depth at WR last season. The deep throws where there. Defense knew after week 9 he couldn’t step into his throws. JB couldn’t push the ball downfield. Had guts to play through an injury. Still through 6 games he out performed any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. 11TD and only 3INT. He also had multiple games of 300 yards.  In 2019 we were also one of the worst teams for dropped passes. Again unfair assessment of JB. 

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7 hours ago, a06cc said:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/
Going to post this here. He played way better in 2019 then any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. He was 11TD’s and 3INT the first 6 games of 2019. He played through a leg injury, but was still our best option at QB that season. Very disrespectful for some of you to leave this out. 

The title was through 6 games, and Luck vs Rivers.

 

If you want to add JB into it, JB had some real duds in the first 6 games. Even in some of the team wins. He had 3 sub 50 QBR games, including two that were sub 40. Just because a team gets a W, doesn't mean a QB played well. Just like a L doesn't equate necessarily to a QB playing bad. And those were all pre-injury.

 

There's no disrespect. Simple stats and discussion. 

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5 hours ago, a06cc said:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/

JB didn’t regress and I’d have to disagree with your take here. Deon Cain drew PI’s when JB targeted him. We also lacked depth at WR last season. The deep throws where there. Defense knew after week 9 he couldn’t step into his throws. JB couldn’t push the ball downfield. Had guts to play through an injury. Still through 6 games he out performed any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. 11TD and only 3INT. He also had multiple games of 300 yards.  In 2019 we were also one of the worst teams for dropped passes. Again unfair assessment of JB. 

That's a very convenient narrative lol.

 

JB still had plenty of targets. Luck's #2 WR in 2018 was Rogers.... Yes, Rogers. TY missed games in 2018, and was gimpy an played in several. Luck was without Doyle for 10 games. Luck got huge production out of Hines.

 

JB had Rogers all year but was incapable of throwing to the seam to him, slots, RBs, TEs, or really just anyone running the seam. JB has River's #2 (Pascal) all year. Rivers had Ebron and Doyle most of the year until late. JB had Hines all year. Sure Indy had issues with pass catcher health in 2019, but they had the same issues in 2018 as well (also 2019). The difference is, Luck, and Rivers, can do more with less. 

 

JB going deep? Wut? JB was 26th in deep ball attempts. JB was 29th in air yards. JB was 23rd in deep throw accuracy. 

 

Dropped balls? JB was 29th in accuracy.. You don't think that had anything to do with dropped balls. Add in his lack of touch and it's not a mystery. JB's pass catchers were also ranked 10th in separation, so the silly narrative that he had nobody getting open is LOL. Also, we weren't one of the worst teams in dropped passes. We were middle of the road (#14). 

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6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

That's a very convenient narrative lol.

 

JB still had plenty of targets. Luck's #2 WR in 2018 was Rogers.... Yes, Rogers. TY missed games in 2018, and was gimpy an played in several. Luck was without Doyle for 10 games. Luck got huge production out of Hines.

 

JB had Rogers all year but was incapable of throwing to the seam to him, slots, RBs, TEs, or really just anyone running the seam. JB has River's #2 (Pascal) all year. Rivers had Ebron and Doyle most of the year until late. JB had Hines all year. Sure Indy had issues with pass catcher health in 2019, but they had the same issues in 2018 as well (also 2019). The difference is, Luck, and Rivers, can do more with less. 

 

JB going deep? Wut? JB was 26th in deep ball attempts. JB was 29th in air yards. JB was 23rd in deep throw accuracy. 

 

Dropped balls? JB was 29th in accuracy.. You don't think that had anything to do with dropped balls. Add in his lack of touch and it's not a mystery. JB's pass catchers were also ranked 10th in separation, so the silly narrative that he had nobody getting open is LOL. Also, we weren't one of the worst teams in dropped passes. We were middle of the road (#14). 

We lost Devin Funchess last season. Parris Campbell was injured. So I’m glad you acknowledge the fact this team on offense was injured. Yeah Chester Rogers the world beater who still on this team... You’re nuts thinking JB had weapons to work with last season. Nuts for even bringing Rogers into this discussion.  I wonder why Ballard made it a mission to add pieces to the offense during the draft. He know we were stagnant on offense. Also again JB was playing through a leg injury last season. Impossible to step into his throws. He was still our best option at QB in 2019. 

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6 minutes ago, a06cc said:

We lost Devin Funchess last season. Parris Campbell was injured. So I’m glad you acknowledge the fact this team on offense was injured. Yeah Chester Rogers the world beater who still on this team... You’re nuts thinking JB had weapons to work with last season. Nuts for even bringing Rogers into this discussion.  I wonder why Ballard made it a mission to add pieces to the offense during the draft. He know we were stagnant on offense. Also again JB was playing through a leg injury last season. Impossible to step into his throws. He was still our best option at QB in 2019. 

Point is, Rogers was Luck's #2, and you want to talk about stagnant lol. No, Rogers is not a world beater, but he beat a lot better when he had Luck lol. JB couldn't even find him. Each year, 18, 19, and 20, the WR core has suffered from injury. You keep harping on leg injury. The topic is the first six games. JB had duds in the first 6 games pre-injury, as did Luck and Rivers. As far a Ballard goes, WR was stagnant in 2018 when Luck was here. Grant? Inman? Rogers? None of those guys are doing much now. Not saying JB wasn't the best option. He was really the only option though. But bottom line, he's just not that good, even pre-injury. If you want to ignore his struggles with reads, progressions, time to throw, touch, accuracy, etc., that's fine.

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On 10/21/2020 at 5:23 PM, a06cc said:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/players/game-log/2019/1877247/jacoby-brissett/

JB didn’t regress and I’d have to disagree with your take here. Deon Cain drew PI’s when JB targeted him. We also lacked depth at WR last season. The deep throws where there. Defense knew after week 9 he couldn’t step into his throws. JB couldn’t push the ball downfield. Had guts to play through an injury. Still through 6 games he out performed any of the QB’s mentioned in this thread. 11TD and only 3INT. He also had multiple games of 300 yards.  In 2019 we were also one of the worst teams for dropped passes. Again unfair assessment of JB. 

I wonder why nobody is banging on the Colts' door trying to get Brissett.

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