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Bengals at Colts: Quick look at unit matchup stats/ranks


EastStreet

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Bengals Offense vs (Colts Defense)
YPG: #26 vs (#1)
PassYPG: #22 vs (#1)
RushYPG: #23 vs (#3)
PPG: #29 vs  (#2)

 

Comments:
1. Mixon vs the Colts is considered the worst RB vs D matchups (favorable Colts).
2. Bengals OL are #3 in most pressures allowed.
3. Burrow, who looked horrible last week behind arguably the worst OL in the league, played a team (Balt), that blitzes 59% of the time. The Colts blitz only 12.4% of the time. I have a feeling Burrow will look a lot better this week.
4. Colts do not have a DE in the top 10 DE Pass Rush Win Rate stat, nor do they a DT in the DT Pass Rush Win Rate. That's pretty underwhelming for a supposed top D.
5. Autry is ranked 7th in DE Run Stop Win Rate, while Buckner is 10th in DT Run Stop Win Rate.
6. Burrow has the 3rd worst QBR in the league.
7. Burrrow's AVG is 29th, and 11th best time to throw (can you say quick and short throws).
8. Boyd is a very good WR, but Green has been very limited, and Higgins is a rook. They're TEs are nothing special.
9. Mixon's AVG is 3.7

 

Bengals Passing O vs Colts Passing D
Burrow is a competent passer, but has a horrible OL. Our pass rush should have more success vs a garbage OL, but doubt we look that great with Burrow's low time to throw. It would be a nice game to blitz more, but doubt we do. It would be a nice game to press more, but doubt we do. I'd guess that Cinci looks good, or at least decent, throwing the ball short in the first half, much like Minshew and Mayfield looked in their first halves. 

 

Bengals Rush O vs Colts Rush D
Mixon is a talented guy, but he's not had a great year thus far. Not sure about Bernard's injury, but this is a game I would expect to see him a bit if not injured. Regardless this should not be a huge challenge for our D. Mixon might have a little success, but doubt he goes for a 100 or more. If Burrow starts working us though in the passing game, Mixon could end up having more yards than expected.

 

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Bengals Defense vs (Colts Offense)
YPG:  #23 vs (#23)
PassYPG:  #9 vs (#18)
RushYPG:  #30 vs (#20)
PPG: #16  vs (#17)

 

Comments
1. Lawson (DE) is really their only legit sack threat. Hubbard, who ranked #1 in Run Stop Win Rate, is OUT for this weekend.
2. Bates (FS) is their best DB and PDer by far. He has the highest S grade in the NFL. 
3. They're passing D YPG is a bit misleading. They've faced three teams that are bottom 10 passing, plus Tyrod Taylor and Minshew.
4. They don't have a ton of INTs, and LBs have more than DBs. Still, bad game to throw deep to Bate's side of the field.
5. As far as QB vs D matchups, Colts QB vs Cinci's D is the 9th best mismatch (favorable Colts) this week.
6. As far as RB vs D matchup, Colts RB vs Cinci's D is 2nd best mismatch (favorable Colts)
7. Nelson is #5 in Guard Pass Block Win Rate. No other Colts OL was top 10, which is underwhelming given all the OL hype.
8. Nelson is #2 in Guard Run Block Win Rate, but no other OL made the top 10. 

 

Bengals Passing D vs Colts Passing O
Aside from Lawson (DE) and Bates (FS), Bengals aren't a very good passing D team. Jackson (CB) is good, but not great.  Their pass YPG rank is misleading. Still, our OL hasn't played great pass blocking, so Lawson could have some success. Hopefully AC is back and Lawson can't tee off on Clark. Not a game though to throw ducks to Bate's side of the field. There are a couple DBs to pick on. I have a feeling they're going to call a bunch of plays again to Burrow. Yawn. Colts should be able to throw at will vs Alexander or Bell, or any of the LBs. Doubt we'll throw much though.

 

Bengals Rushing D vs Colts Rushing O
You have to think with Hubbard out, the Colts will run more than throw. They should regardless of Hubbard's status anyway. The Cinci front 7 has zero guys rated in the 70s or above. LB crew is very very meh. Anyway, should be a big game for Taylor. Bengals #30 rush D should be exploited. If we can't run the ball all over the place, our OL stinks with or without AC playing. Our right side has been arguably better at run blocking since last year anyway. It should also be a great game to exploit the edge. I could also see Wilkins going off late in the game as the D is worn down.

 

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Misc Team Rankings
PFF Power Rankings - Colts #14,  Bengals #26
PFF Defense Ranking - Colts #3, Bengals #10
Pass Rush Win Rate - Colts #18, Bengals #28
Run Stop Win Rate - Colts #3, Bengals #22
Pass Block Win Rate - Colts #12, Bengals #27
Run Block Win Rate - Colts #7, Bengals #15

 

Comments:
Not buying the #10 rank from PFF for Cinci's D rank. Over inflated due to Pass YPG. It's very disappointing we're ranked in the bottom half in Pass Rush Win Rate, especially playing some bad OLs pre-Cleveland. 

 

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Score Prediction
Colts 31
Bengals 20
 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

Bengals Offense vs (Colts Defense)
YPG: #26 vs (#1)
PassYPG: #22 vs (#1)
RushYPG: #23 vs (#3)
PPG: #29 vs  (#2)

 

Comments:
1. Mixon vs the Colts is considered the worst RB vs D matchups (favorable Colts).
2. Bengals OL are #3 in most pressures allowed.
3. Burrow, who looked horrible last week behind arguably the worst OL in the league, played a team (Balt), that blitzes 59% of the time. The Colts blitz only 12.4% of the time. I have a feeling Burrow will look a lot better this week.
4. Colts do not have a DE in the top 10 DE Pass Rush Win Rate stat, nor do they a DT in the DT Pass Rush Win Rate. That's pretty underwhelming for a supposed top D.
5. Autry is ranked 7th in DE Run Stop Win Rate, while Buckner is 10th in DT Run Stop Win Rate.
6. Burrow has the 3rd worst QBR in the league.
7. Burrrow's AVG is 29th, and 11th best time to throw (can you say quick and short throws).
8. Boyd is a very good WR, but Green has been very limited, and Higgins is a rook. They're TEs are nothing special.
9. Mixon's AVG is 3.7

 

Bengals Passing O vs Colts Passing D
Burrow is a competent passer, but has a horrible OL. Our pass rush should have more success vs a garbage OL, but doubt we look that great with Burrow's low time to throw. It would be a nice game to blitz more, but doubt we do. It would be a nice game to press more, but doubt we do. I'd guess that Cinci looks good, or at least decent, throwing the ball short in the first half, much like Minshew and Mayfield looked in their first halves. 

 

Bengals Rush O vs Colts Rush D
Mixon is a talented guy, but he's not had a great year thus far. Not sure about Bernard's injury, but this is a game I would expect to see him a bit if not injured. Regardless this should not be a huge challenge for our D. Mixon might have a little success, but doubt he goes for a 100 or more. If Burrow starts working us though in the passing game, Mixon could end up having more yards than expected.

 

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Bengals Defense vs (Colts Offense)
YPG:  #23 vs (#23)
PassYPG:  #9 vs (#18)
RushYPG:  #30 vs (#20)
PPG: #16  vs (#17)

 

Comments
1. Lawson (DE) is really their only legit sack threat. Hubbard, who ranked #1 in Run Stop Win Rate, is OUT for this weekend.
2. Bates (FS) is their best DB and PDer by far. He has the highest S grade in the NFL. 
3. They're passing D YPG is a bit misleading. They've faced three teams that are bottom 10 passing, plus Tyrod Taylor and Minshew.
4. They don't have a ton of INTs, and LBs have more than DBs. Still, bad game to throw deep to Bate's side of the field.
5. As far as QB vs D matchups, Colts QB vs Cinci's D is the 9th best mismatch (favorable Colts) this week.
6. As far as RB vs D matchup, Colts RB vs Cinci's D is 2nd best mismatch (favorable Colts)
7. Nelson is #5 in Guard Pass Block Win Rate. No other Colts OL was top 10, which is underwhelming given all the OL hype.
8. Nelson is #2 in Guard Run Block Win Rate, but no other OL made the top 10. 

 

Bengals Passing D vs Colts Passing O
Aside from Lawson (DE) and Bates (FS), Bengals aren't a very good passing D team. Jackson (CB) is good, but not great.  Their pass YPG rank is misleading. Still, our OL hasn't played great pass blocking, so Lawson could have some success. Hopefully AC is back and Lawson can't tee off on Clark. Not a game though to throw ducks to Bate's side of the field. There are a couple DBs to pick on. I have a feeling they're going to call a bunch of plays again to Burrow. Yawn. Colts should be able to throw at will vs Alexander or Bell, or any of the LBs. Doubt we'll throw much though.

 

Bengals Rushing D vs Colts Rushing O
You have to think with Hubbard out, the Colts will run more than throw. They should regardless of Hubbard's status anyway. The Cinci front 7 has zero guys rated in the 70s or above. LB crew is very very meh. Anyway, should be a big game for Taylor. Bengals #30 rush D should be exploited. If we can't run the ball all over the place, our OL stinks with or without AC playing. Our right side has been arguably better at run blocking since last year anyway. It should also be a great game to exploit the edge. I could also see Wilkins going off late in the game as the D is worn down.

 

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Misc Team Rankings
PFF Power Rankings - Colts #14,  Bengals #26
PFF Defense Ranking - Colts #3, Bengals #10
Pass Rush Win Rate - Colts #18, Bengals #28
Run Stop Win Rate - Colts #3, Bengals #22
Pass Block Win Rate - Colts #12, Bengals #27
Run Block Win Rate - Colts #7, Bengals #15

 

Comments:
Not buying the #10 rank from PFF for Cinci's D rank. Over inflated due to Pass YPG. It's very disappointing we're ranked in the bottom half in Pass Rush Win Rate, especially playing some bad OLs pre-Cleveland. 

 

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Score Prediction
Colts 31
Bengals 20
 

We should be able to get plenty of pressure on Burrow if the Ravens game was any indication last week. I see it as a low scoring game the more I look at it. Going to say Buckner has his big breakout game for the Colts (I know he's elite already), and we manage to control time of possession. This is a must win game IMO.

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Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

We should be able to get plenty of pressure on Burrow if the Ravens game was any indication last week. I see it as a low scoring game the more I look at it. Going to say Buckner has his big breakout game for the Colts (I know he's elite already), and we manage to control time of possession. This is a must win game IMO.

See comment #3

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5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

We should be able to get plenty of pressure on Burrow if the Ravens game was any indication last week. I see it as a low scoring game the more I look at it. Going to say Buckner has his big breakout game for the Colts (I know he's elite already), and we manage to control time of possession. This is a must win game IMO.

It is a must win, I agree because of our future schedule. I have us winning 27-24. I think we got this. :thmup:

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is a must win, I agree because of our future schedule. I have us winning 27-24. I think we got this. :thmup:

If we go 4-2 before the bye, we are still alive IMO. Then we can get some guys back from injuries and possibly win some game against tough opponents. Have to play this game like our season depends on it though. I hope Reich tells the team that we have a brutal schedule the rest of the way, and we need this one heading into the bye week.

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8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Wow, that's terrible. Based on that, I want Eberflus gone at the end of the year if those %'s don't go up. He's killing us.

Everything about both sides of the ball are vanilla and conservative. 

 

Give me some more blitz, and more press. Not saying go crazy, but it stinks being on the low end of the NFL.

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