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Yeah it is expensive and I'm generally against trading up in the draft, and I'm much more a fan of trading down, but as I've said before there is one exception for that rule. It's the QB. Like with many things QBs tilt the conversation on its head. Just the value if you hit is SO BIG, that you have to do it if you get the chance(and you love the QB sitting there of course). There is practically no bad trade value if you trade up for a QB and he hits. Also, about the hit rates of QBs. my opinion is that it's not just about the QB and his talent/drive/determination/work ethic. The environment, teammates, coaching, etc. play a big role in whether they succeed or fail. There are very few Andrew Lucks who will succeed no matter what garbage you throw at them(and he was thrown into one of the biggest piles of garbage in the league when it comes to GM-coach combo + the talent around him). For most QBs, even highly drafted, their talent needs to be guided and nurtured in the right direction. And in this line of thoughts - I think some of those QBs could have been successful in another environment and/or with a bit more luck(Darnold/Wentz), while others were probably doomed from the start because of their own failings(Rosen, Trubisky). And here is where I think we actually have somewhat of an advantage. I like our GM and our FO. I like our coach generally(even if I have some playcalling beefs with him). I like our roster and the foundations of our OLine. I think this situation gives better than average chance to a young QB to succeed. It's still no guarantee, but again... at some point you will have to make a move of some sort. We cannot keep rethreading the Rivers' of the world. At some point Ballard will have to trust his evaluation of a QB he loves and just do what it takes to get him. -
By NewColtsFan · Posted
Sorry, but no, our window is not closing. Almost all of Ballard's top players are still on their rookie contracts. This team is EARLY in it's window. There is still great opportunity for the Colts. Your viewpoint is a fan's viewpoint. It is not the view of how an NFL front office person thinks. There is still time. Patience can be your friend. -
By NewColtsFan · Posted
I can only think of one team that did that.... New Orleans traded their whole draft for Ricky Williams I think in the early 2000's. And I don't think it's been done since. Trading up that far is really, really expensive. There's good reason why he doesn't like the idea of trading up that far. First, it's incredibly expensive. Second, hitting on the right quarterback in in the first round, even high in the first round is roughly a 50-50 proposition. Look at Phily and the Rams. Both traded a bundle to move to the top of the first... picks 1 and 2 to take Goff and Wentz. Both have had a moments. And as of today, neither is comfortable in their job. Both are on the hot seat. Look at the top of the '18 draft. Mayfield and Allen are winners. Darnold and Rosen not so much. You gotta move down to the bottom of the first to add in Lamar Jackson... who would've thought he'd work out as well as he did. Props to Baltimore. But it's a huge gamble. It's hit and miss on the most scrutinized position in Pro Sports. -
My hope would be a GM is blinded by the volume and the headlines rather than the absolute value. We've seen teams do that trade in the past, where it's bad value-wise but it looks good on paper. Now the question is - are the Jets or MIA this easily fooled? Probably not but yeah... it's a fun hypothetical.
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I mean... hopefully we are not trading up Najee Harris or Travis Etienne. Then for SURE I don't want anything to do with it. But if you can get Wilson or Fields? I'd do that any day. I think people are weirded out by the number of picks rather than by the value. This whole Colts draft past R1 has worse value than an average additional 1st. https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp R2 Pick 54 - 360 pts R3 Pick 84 - 170 R4 Pick 117 - 60 R5 Pick 148 - 31 R6 Pick 180 - 18.2 R7 Pick 211 - 5.8 ----------------------------- The total value is 645, which is the equivalent to the 29th pick of the draft. My solution here would be to take our future 1st and trade it for late 1st or early 2nd this year.... then trade down a bunch of times to replenish the volume of picks for this year. Seattle has done similar things in recent years when they didn't have tons of picks. Example: Trade future 1st for no. 33... Trade 33(580) for 50(400) and 81(185) Trade 50(400) for 58(320) and 100(100) => pick at 58 Trade 81(185) for 92(132) and 124(48) => pick at 92 Trade 100(100) for 107(80) and 169(22.6) Trade 107(80) for 117(60) and 180(18.2) => pick at 117, pick at 124, pick at 169, pick at 180 So in essense for 21 and 2022 1st rounder you get... no.2 and your pick of a QB after Lawrence, 2nd rounder(58), 3d rounder(92), 2x 4th rounders(117 and 124) and 2x 6th rounders(169 and 180). That's just an example of what can be done.
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