1Q 2020: Offensive Stats, Snaps, Grades + Poll

[EastStreet]

Doing a two, maybe three part (STs) look at stats, ranks, ets. Part 2 (Defense) will be posted tomorrow. It's done, but too tired to format.

Part 1 - 1Q Offense
A. Grades
B. Offensive Unit ranks, and opponent's oppoiste unit rank
C. Misc Offensive Stats
D. Individual PFF, Snaps, and Key Stats

Note: I realize some don't like PFF. It's not perfect, but is generally directionally correct. In short, save the anecdotal "PFF sucks" stuff, and provide stats or factual data if you disagree.

Red = bad, decline, etc.

Green = good, improvement, etc.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

East Street's Offensive Grades (based on the below)
OL: B-
QB: C+
TE: B+
WR: C+
RB: C+
Coaching: D+

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offensive Unit Ranks and Stats  (showing each opponent's D unit rank JX/MN/NYJ/CHI)
YPG: 19th (23/29/18/8 - avg 19.5)
Pass YPG: 18th (24/29/15/9 - avg 19.3)
Rush YPG: 15th (26/24/22/16 - avg 22)
Points PG: 17th (23/26/30/7 - avg 21.5)
Sacks (least): 3rd (most 31/23/25/18 - avg 24.3)
RZ Offense: 28th (16/2/14/1 - avg 8.3) 
3rd Down O: 30th (23/2/24/3 - avg 13)

 

Comments:
1. Yards and Points are average, RZ and 3rd down we're awful. We all know this lol.
2. Only surprise to me is that MN's RZ and 3rd Down D is top 5 given all the other ranks. Talk about bending a lot, and not breaking. 
3. In terms of improving, I think passing a bit more, would open up the run game, and both passing and rushing would improve. 
4. Our predictable play calling is the biggest reason for our RZ and 3rd down woes.
5. Someone tell me why we threw it all over the yard against the worst run D team (Jax) we've played thus far? SMH game plan.
6. Opponent strength is poor

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Misc Offensive Team Stats/Ranks
OL Rank PFF (WK3): 6th
Pressure % Allowed: 3rd (best)
Batted Balls: tied for 4th (4)
Blitzed: 32nd
QB Hits: Tied for 18th-23rd
Score%: 9th
Turnover%: 25th
Plays per Drive: 4th
Time per Drive: 2nd
Net Yards Per Drive: 13th
Points per Drive: 23rd
Yards Per Play: 23rd
Yards Per Passing Attempt: 6th
ANY/A: 11th
Yards per Rushing Attempt: 32nd
Fumbles Lost (least): 1st
INTs (least): Tied 14th-21st
FGs Made: 1st
TDs: 22nd
Passing Attempts: 26th
Rushing Attempts: 4th
Rush TDs: 22nd
Pass TDs: 29th
Play action attempts: 28th
RPO attempts: 24th
Penalties: 13th (most)
Penalty Yards: 4th most

Comments:
1. Why so many batted balls, while at the same time 3rd lowest pressures. 
2. Top 10 in score %, just need to change FGs to TDs.
3. Very good ANY/A stats. Need more passing.
4. We're wonderful at using clock
5. LOL, nobody wants to blitz us. Can you say playing the run.
6. Boooooo.... Way too many penalties and penalty yards. Tied for third most O holding.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Player Specific - PFF, Snaps, and Stats (good and bad highlight)

 

The Player Grading Scale:
100-90  Elite
89-85    Pro Bowler
84-70    Starter
69-60    Backup 
59-0       Replaceable

 

Player - 2020 PFF (2019 and 2018 if avail) / snap % (2019 and 2018 if avail)

 

Quarterback
Rivers - 77.0 (74.3, 90.8) / 95% (98%)
-4th in completion %
-4th in Time to Throw (lowest)
-14th in INT%
-17th in QB Rating and QBR
-6th in NY/A
-11th ANY/A
-11th in YAC/Completion
Brissett - 70.2 (59.2, 57.8) / 5% (88%)

 

 

PFF Comments - Rivers is comfortably in the "starter" zone from PFF despite the 3 INTs (one which was clearly not on him). Pretty good given he's new to the team, no pre-season, breaking in a rook RB, musical chairs at both WR and TE, and being in the bottom 1/3 of the league on attempts.

 

Snap Count Comments - NA

 

General Comments - Rivers needs more attempts. His quality stats are fine. His accuracy and AVG are very good. Need to take some pressure off the run game. Despite a bad start with 2 INTs, his performance against Chicago, while also criticized, was by far the highest QBR and QB rating by any QB to play them so far this year.

 

 

Running Back
Mack - 72.6 (69.5, 68.6) / 4% (47%, 39%)
Taylor - 69.0 (NA) / 47% (NA)
-Tied for 1st in catch % (all positions)
-2nd in YAC/R (all positions)
-21st in yards from scrimmage (all positions)
Wilkins - 76.4 (69.8, 63.4) / 17% (16%, 17%)

 

All Purpose Back
Hines - 61.6 (63.3, 71.6) / 34% (32%, 44%)
-7th in catch % (all positions)

 

PFF Comments - Taylor, while still raw and timid, is already at Mack's 2018 and 2019 PFF levels. Very unfortunate to lose Mack. Wilkins has improved his standing over the last two years. Hines's use this year is a headscratcher. He's an APB, not a guy meant to run between the tackles as much as he is. The blueprint is there from 2018, which was his highest PFF so far, and also a higher snap rate.

 

Snap count -  Taylor's snap counts are similar to Mack's last year (both 47%). Mack however was 62% of carries in 2019, while Taylor is 55%.  Hines however is running 5.75 times per game this year, compared to 3.25 last year. Wilkins carries per game are up as well, 6.75 vs 3.18.

 

General Comments: Didn't realize Taylor was this good on the passing side of things. Taylor just needs patience, and perhaps some more from the pass game to relieve the pressure. Hines needs to used as a satellite guy, not up the gut.

 

 

Tight End
Doyle - 54.5 (69.2, 72.5) / 47% (74%, 29%)
*40% slots snap rate (only 1 game sample)
Alie-Cox - 93.1 (67.3, 73.3) / 53% (33%, 21%)
*12% slot snap rate (first 3 games)
-6th in yards/reception (all positions)
-4th in yards/target (all positions)
-12 in YAC/R (all positions)
Burton - 59.8 (49.2, 69.4) / 13% (26%, 80%)
-1 Drop
Togiai - 48.5 (NA) / 19% (NA)
-1 Drop

Bonus - Ebron is 9th in drop %

 

PFF Comments - Mo is boss, grading out as elite on PFF. Doyle is down from 2019, but wouldn't read to much into that. Burton is still an enigma head scratcher to me. 

 

Snap Count Comments - I understand they may want to use Burton in a bully slot role, especially with Campbell gone from slot, and with Pascal having to move back more to X with Pittman out, but would like to see them work Burton back in gradually. Too many first read plays for him last week. No need to upset the balance/chemistry, or take significant snaps away from Mo or Doyle, or even WRs.

 

General Comments: More Mo. That is all.

 

 

Wide Receiver 
Hilton - 67.7 (75.1, 86.6) / 67% (44%, 67%)
*11% slot snap rate (3 games)
-1 Drop
Pascal - 64.7 (73.7, 60.9) / 77% (74%, 46%)
*49% slot snap rate (3 games)
Campbell - 72.8 (54.7) / 23% (18%)
*95% slot snap rate
Pittman - 61.3 (NA) / 51%
*5% slot snap rate (3 games)
Fountain - 66.1 (NA) / 18%
*11% slot snap rate (1 game)
Dulin - 67.3 (NA) / 13% (9%)
*24% slot snap rate
Johnson - 65.3 (59.8, 61.1) / 12% (38%, 8%)

 

PFF Comments - with as little as we have passed the last 3 games, not really putting a lot of stock into the WR PFFs yet. When we have passed, the separation has been pretty good, as has the YAC/R as seen in the advanced stats. Regardless, it's hard to ignore the regression of TY's PFF the last 3 years. 2019 can certainly be explained by Brissett to an extent, but we need to see him trend up here pretty soon. 

 

Snap Count Comments - No real surprises here given what's happened with injuries. 

 

General Comments - Would love to see Fountain and Johnson get more time on the outside, and Dulin more time inside from slot. Teams are still doubling TY, and seems we still have perhaps too many first read plays to both him and Pascal. I'd also love to see Patmon. We heard a lot about him from camp, yet we've promoted two WRs up from the PS and given them snaps, while Patmon hasn't got a shot.

 

 

Offensive Line
Castonzo - 63.6 (81.3, 77.7) / 96% (100%, 66%)
Nelson - 72.0 (91.2, 79.7) / 98% (97%, 100%)
Kelly - 66.6 (73.0, 74.5) / 98% (95%, 68%)
Glow - 70.9 (60.5, 77.7) / 100% (100%, 53%)
Smith - 60.3 (79.8, 73.3) / 100% (100%, 75%)
Pinter - 62.8 (NA) / 8%
Clark - 68.8 (NA, 67.6) / 4% (NA, 32%)
Green - 54.3 (NA) / 2% (NA, 24%)

 

PFF Comments - I wish I was surprised by the drops, but I'm not. I have to believe it's a product of play calling (being predictable, Hines up the gut, the run/pass mix, etc.). It's obvious the run grades are dragging us down given Rivers is the least sacked QB in the league. Better mix please, less predictable please, less Hines up the gut please. 

 

Snap Count Comments - nothing suprising, but nice seeing some of the reserves are getting a chance, and giving the starters a little rest.

 

General Comments - Everybody's favorite punching bag (Glow) is sitting with the 2nd best PFF rating lol. I've been saying for while now, he's one of the best weak links in the NFL.

[OffensivelyPC]

At the end of the day, we've put up enough points to put us at 3-1 and there is reason for optimism. We've run the ball well before with the same OL.

 

Rivers has been able to move the ball. I believe two interceptions were not on Rivers, cuz didn't both TY and Mo drop well thrown passes that ended up being picked off? Pretty sure only the pick 6 was 100% on him though and that was almost entirely to blame for that loss. Defense was bad overall that day too.

 

I'd like to see us hang in a shootout or shut down an elite offense. But I believe we are playing playoff football well enough for a run. Just have a few questions we need answered and the rest of our schedule can provide answers.

[CurBeatElite]

16 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Doing a two, maybe three part (STs) look at stats, ranks, ets. Part 2 (Defense) will be posted tomorrow. It's done, but too tired to format.

Part 1 - 1Q Offense
A. Grades
B. Offensive Unit ranks, and opponent's oppoiste unit rank
C. Misc Offensive Stats
D. Individual PFF, Snaps, and Key Stats

Note: I realize some don't like PFF. It's not perfect, but is generally directionally correct. In short, save the anecdotal "PFF sucks" stuff, and provide stats or factual data if you disagree.

Red = bad, decline, etc.

Green = good, improvement, etc.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

East Street's Offensive Grades (based on the below)
OL: B-
QB: C+
TE: B+
WR: C+
RB: C+
Coaching: D+

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offensive Unit Ranks and Stats  (showing each opponent's D unit rank JX/MN/NYJ/CHI)
YPG: 19th (23/29/18/8 - avg 19.5)
Pass YPG: 18th (24/29/15/9 - avg 19.3)
Rush YPG: 15th (26/24/22/16 - avg 22)
Points PG: 17th (23/26/30/7 - avg 21.5)
Sacks (least): 3rd (most 31/23/25/18 - avg 24.3)
RZ Offense: 28th (16/2/14/1 - avg 8.3) 
3rd Down O: 30th (23/2/24/3 - avg 13)

 

Comments:
1. Yards and Points are average, RZ and 3rd down we're awful. We all know this lol.
2. Only surprise to me is that MN's RZ and 3rd Down D is top 5 given all the other ranks. Talk about bending a lot, and not breaking. 
3. In terms of improving, I think passing a bit more, would open up the run game, and both passing and rushing would improve. 
4. Our predictable play calling is the biggest reason for our RZ and 3rd down woes.
5. Someone tell me why we threw it all over the yard against the worst run D team (Jax) we've played thus far? SMH game plan.
6. Opponent strength is poor

 

 

 

Great post ES!

 

Thanks for putting in all that work.  I voted 'mixed feelings and c+'.

 

I think I may have an answer to your 5th point there...  Mack went down with a busted achilles and I don't think Reich fully trusted Taylor yet.

 

Our first drive went "Pass for 8 yards, pass for 21 yards, Mack run for 8, Mack run for 3, Hines run for 12 yard TD".

 

Our second drive went "Pass for 18 (screen to Campbell), Pass for 19 (screen to Mack), Mack run for 18 yards, Incomplete, Pass for 6, Hines run for 3, Hines stuffed on 4th and 1 at Jax 3"

 

Third drive: Rivers threw a pick (ESPN's play by play broke for a minute -- the drive started with a 20 yard pass to TY, then 3 plays later Rivers threw a pick)

 

Fourth Drive: Mack for -3 yards, 6 yard pass, 17 yard pas, 3 yard pass to Mack -- Mack tore achilles, out for remainder of game and season.

 

We were actually fairly balanced right up to that point.  Reich seemed to basically abandon the run afterwards.  Other than his 2 INTs, Rivers had a very good game overall, he had a high completion % and we were for the most part moving the ball at will (save for getting stuffed on 4th and short on, you probably guessed it, Hines up the middle).

 

Also, it was week 1, so we didn't know the Jags would have such a bad run D at that point in time.

 

[EastStreet]

17 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

At the end of the day, we've put up enough points to put us at 3-1 and there is reason for optimism. We've run the ball well before with the same OL.

 

Rivers has been able to move the ball. I believe two interceptions were not on Rivers, cuz didn't both TY and Mo drop well thrown passes that ended up being picked off? Pretty sure only the pick 6 was 100% on him though and that was almost entirely to blame for that loss. Defense was bad overall that day too.

 

I'd like to see us hang in a shootout or shut down an elite offense. But I believe we are playing playoff football well enough for a run. Just have a few questions we need answered and the rest of our schedule can provide answers.

One of the 3 INTs were definitely not him (to Mo). The one to TY is debatable. The DB that had been staying with his man up until then, peeled off to help with TY while Rivers was in the motion. TY's attempt at the ball was as week as I've seen TY. The other was all on Rivers.

 

The loss though, I put that 80-90% on coaching. We should have been running a lot more vs Jax (who has a bad rush D), and should have never opened up the Covid season tossing it all over the yard. And yes, agreed, the pass D especially was soft as hell, and made Minshew look like surgeon. 

[DontEverGiveUp]

20 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

At the end of the day, we've put up enough points to put us at 3-1 and there is reason for optimism. We've run the ball well before with the same OL.

 

Rivers has been able to move the ball. I believe two interceptions were not on Rivers, cuz didn't both TY and Mo drop well thrown passes that ended up being picked off? Pretty sure only the pick 6 was 100% on him though and that was almost entirely to blame for that loss. Defense was bad overall that day too.

 

I'd like to see us hang in a shootout or shut down an elite offense. But I believe we are playing playoff football well enough for a run. Just have a few questions we need answered and the rest of our schedule can provide answers.

I don't recall that.  Maybe getting some games mixed up?

 

Other than that, I agree with your overall synopsis.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I went Mixed and C+ which is still respectable. Luckily our defense gets a B+ IMO and our SP Teams gets an A IMO.

 

B+ for the defense because of the Jags game to clarify that grade.

[DougDew]

I'm a run first and take care of the ball guy and not really a QB hero-ball guy, so I'm probably a little happier with the O than most here.  Not a Hines fan other than as a gadget 3rd down back/ punt returner, so I agree with all comments made about him.  To be fair, he's probably been thrust into more of Mack's role since Mack is injured.  Why can't JT or Wilkins get those carries?  Reich may be putting JT on a play count at this point in his career, and Hines might be the best at taking care of the ball in the red zone.  Still no excuse for running him in a power play.

 

JAG talent at WR (on the field playing).  A consistent theme for years.  If young guys Pittman and Campbell could play, my guess is that the passing stats would improve, as would the Oline stats. 

 

I look for MAC to return to earth, as defensive coordinators begin to notice him more.

 

[lollygagger8]

Great post Easy!

 

Mixed Feelings for sure.

 

Great that they extend drives and eat up clock. They can't expect to win a bunch of games kicking FG's though. 

Redzone play calling has got to get more creative 

The constant forcing Hines up the middle has got to change. He's good in space, not between the tackles - we all know this

They've lost Mack, Campbell(again), Pittmann, Burton just came back - that's a lot to overcome

 

I believe Colts rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.52) - that's pathetic, esp with the O-Line we have.

 

I agree with Easy, more passing would certainly open up the run game. Rivers is light years better than Brisket, but he needs to to do more. 200 yards a game is leaning on the run game. He's called a few plays at the line to get us in a good situation, but he (didn't change the play) and ran the RB into stacked boxes as well. 

 

 

[chad72]

Mixed feelings seems to be the consensus. Yes, the heavyweight part of our schedule in November and December will provide more answers. Numbers don't lie.

 

I do feel our OL has not played its best ball yet. Our YPC is low and maybe they’ll use the pass to set up the run as Rivers’ comfort level goes up too. Mack going down has forced JT into a bigger role than the coaches were willing to thrust him into and we’ll see some bumps in the road during that learning curve.

 

Our coaching and play calling has been relatively conservative given how well our D has done. Would like to see how we’re going to do with all our pass catchers healthy at the same time.

[Valpo2004]

6 hours ago, chad72 said:

Mixed feelings seems to be the consensus. Yes, the heavyweight part of our schedule in November and December will provide more answers. Numbers don't lie.

 

I do feel our OL has not played its best ball yet. Our YPC is low and maybe they’ll use the pass to set up the run as Rivers’ comfort level goes up too. Mack going down has forced JT into a bigger role than the coaches were willing to thrust him into and we’ll see some bumps in the road during that learning curve.

 

Our coaching and play calling has been relatively conservative given how well our D has done. Would like to see how we’re going to do with all our pass catchers healthy at the same time.

 

Our YPC has been extremely disappointing this year.  We have a great OL, why can't we get more yards per carry?  

 

Feels like this offense has the capability of being so much better then it is.  

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

Our YPC has been extremely disappointing this year.  We have a great OL, why can't we get more yards per carry?  

 

Feels like this offense has the capability of being so much better then it is.  

 

I wish I had an answer. Our OL is normally better than this. Part of it is Mack going down early in the season and JT still learning to hit the holes right, plus Hines running into walls by the red zone doesn't help either.  Mack had 4 carries for 26 yards vs Jaguars before going down, JT had 9 carries for 22. I don't think we really hit 5 YPC overall even against the weaker Jets' run D. 

 

I do think that unless Rivers/Frank show they are capable of beating a team with the passing game consistently with a less then prime TY and Pascal to go with him along with the TEs and RBs, teams are going to give us crowded boxes. Browns' DL front is good vs the run, so they may not need to crowd the box as much so that they can protect the secondary and LBs with numbers, I feel that is how it is going to turn out. 

 

We hopefully connect on a few long yardage plays to soften them up and then run enough to put up enough points to win. Crossing routes 15-20 yards down the field should be available, IMO.

 

[EastStreet]

15 hours ago, DougDew said:

I'm a run first and take care of the ball guy and not really a QB hero-ball guy, so I'm probably a little happier with the O than most here.  Not a Hines fan other than as a gadget 3rd down back/ punt returner, so I agree with all comments made about him.  To be fair, he's probably been thrust into more of Mack's role since Mack is injured.  Why can't JT or Wilkins get those carries?  Reich may be putting JT on a play count at this point in his career, and Hines might be the best at taking care of the ball in the red zone.  Still no excuse for running him in a power play.

agree on all of this..

15 hours ago, DougDew said:

 

JAG talent at WR (on the field playing).  A consistent theme for years.  If young guys Pittman and Campbell could play, my guess is that the passing stats would improve, as would the Oline stats. 

Disagree here. The completion %, AVG, ANY/A, YAC, etc all suggest the pass catchers as a whole are fine. All those numbers are top 10ish. OL is suffer from predictable play calling, and imbalance. 

15 hours ago, DougDew said:

I look for MAC to return to earth, as defensive coordinators begin to notice him more.

Maybe a little, but our scheme in general is good at scheming TEs open. MAC was running some WRish routes two weeks ago when Rivers connected with him on a few sail routes. At the end of the day, we have enough pass catching weapons (WR, TE, RB) to make Ds pick their poison. 

[EastStreet]

15 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

Great post Easy!

 

Mixed Feelings for sure.

 

Great that they extend drives and eat up clock. They can't expect to win a bunch of games kicking FG's though. 

Redzone play calling has got to get more creative 

The constant forcing Hines up the middle has got to change. He's good in space, not between the tackles - we all know this

They've lost Mack, Campbell(again), Pittmann, Burton just came back - that's a lot to overcome

 

I believe Colts rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.52) - that's pathetic, esp with the O-Line we have.

 

I agree with Easy, more passing would certainly open up the run game. Rivers is light years better than Brisket, but he needs to to do more. 200 yards a game is leaning on the run game. He's called a few plays at the line to get us in a good situation, but he (didn't change the play) and ran the RB into stacked boxes as well. 

Thanks LG8. And I'm not really asking for air raid stuff, just a better balance. I don't want Rivers having to play hero ball or trying to win from behind. I do want him to be empowered though to make changes and call no-brainer plays when necessary. And I do want to keep Ds off balance. Seems like we've went run heavy as soon as we got the lead. Vs Jax, we abandoned the run too early. Just really not happy with the mix, and opponent specific balances.  

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

I wish I had an answer. Our OL is normally better than this. Part of it is Mack going down early in the season and JT still learning to hit the holes right, plus Hines running into walls by the red zone doesn't help either.  Mack had 4 carries for 26 yards vs Jaguars before going down, JT had 9 carries for 22. I don't think we really hit 5 YPC overall even against the weaker Jets' run D. 

While the Jets run D may have regressed this year, it was #2 in the league last year. They are still pretty decent. Their problem is they have the worst/32nd ranked O in the league, and their D is on the field way too much (3rd worst time of possession). IMO, our YPC is 80% playcalling/imbalance, and 20% timid rook.

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

I do think that unless Rivers/Frank show they are capable of beating a team with the passing game consistently with a less then prime TY and Pascal to go with him along with the TEs and RBs, teams are going to give us crowded boxes. Browns' DL front is good vs the run, so they may not need to crowd the box as much so that they can protect the secondary and LBs with numbers, I feel that is how it is going to turn out. 

Team's really haven't blitzed us or crowded all that much. IMO they've stayed in base a lot, with simply a mindset of looking for the run-first as the game progresses. Given our completion % and AVG/ANYA rank, just seems like we've been able to throw when we've wanted to throw. We just haven't.

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

We hopefully connect on a few long yardage plays to soften them up and then run enough to put up enough points to win. Crossing routes 15-20 yards down the field should be available, IMO.

More sail routes for MAC please.