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Did Ballard possibly make a mistake?


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Hard to say.  Colts may have the 3T that helps this defense make the next step.  Have the need and the cap room so it made sense.  
 

49ers could not keep an entire defensive line full of blue chip first rounders together without sacrificing other parts of the team.  They may have filled the void with a player with 70% the skill that could greatly improve at a fraction of the cost.   Or Kinlaw could just be a solid player that flashes first round potential at times but that’s all that is needed on their line to stay great.  
 

Seems like a win win for both clubs.  

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3 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Hard to say.  Colts may have the 3T that helps this defense make the next step.  Have the need and the cap room so it made sense.  
 

49ers could not keep an entire defensive line full of blue chip first rounders together without sacrificing other parts of the team.  They may have filled the void with a player with 70% the skill that could greatly improve at a fraction of the cost.   Or Kinlaw could just be a solid player that flashes first round potential at times but that’s all that is needed on their line to stay great.  
 

Seems like a win win for both clubs.  

 

Agreed.  Imagine having to give QB money to your entire defensive line.  From the 49ers perspective they could not invest another $20m on another elite D lineman, so the 13th pick was acceptable compensation.  

 

On the other end of the spectrum, in the not too distant future, the Colts might face a similar problem retaining its superb O Line, and Ballard would be forced to replace veterans with rookies too.  Thankfully guards and centers demand lower salaries but there is no denying that Q will reset the value system in place as his salary will exceed all-pro LT money.  Both Castonzo and Kelly are the highest paid at their positions, and Braden Smith will demand top RT money.  The investment it is going to require to keep this unit intact is going to be grossly disproportionate to the entire roster, granted Castonzo will retire within a couple seasons offering much needed cap room.  Hopefully Ballard secures a future LT sooner rather than later.  Sounds like the 49ers will have to groom Kinlaw.

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6 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:

 

Agreed.  Imagine having to give QB money to your entire defensive line.  From the 49ers perspective they could not invest another $20m on another elite D lineman, so the 13th pick was acceptable compensation.  

 

On the other end of the spectrum, in the not too distant future, the Colts might face a similar problem retaining its superb O Line, and Ballard would be forced to replace veterans with rookies too.  Thankfully guards and centers demand lower salaries but there is no denying that Q will reset the value system in place as his salary will exceed all-pro LT money.  Both Castonzo and Kelly are the highest paid at their positions, and Braden Smith will demand top RT money.  The investment it is going to require to keep this unit intact is going to be grossly disproportionate to the entire roster, granted Castonzo will retire within a couple seasons offering much needed cap room.  Hopefully Ballard secures a future LT sooner rather than later.  Sounds like the 49ers will have to groom Kinlaw.


Most definitely will have to make choices on the OL.  Probably best they keep 2 of the 5 positions on rookie or journeyman contracts.  I also think this is why they will let Anthony Walker and Malik Hooker test free agency.  They are average to above average players depending on the game, but we have cheaper/promising options behind them on the depth chart in Okereke and Blackmon.  I wonder if any of these Dlineman will command starter type 2nd contracts.  So far none of the young guys have stepped up. Hopefully this is the year.  

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On 9/4/2020 at 8:11 AM, NannyMcafee said:

Only if Buckner doesn't pan out. Otherwise just because both teams do well doesn't mean a mistake was made. 

Right.  If both guys do well it's even money.  It's not like DeFo is 30.  He's still a young "buck" himself.  

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On 9/4/2020 at 6:53 AM, BProland85 said:


The thread title is comically off base. 
 

1. Neither has played a game for their new team which makes the idea of a “mistake” now completely pointless. 
 

2. If Buckner is the player he is thought to be for Indy, it matters not one iota what Kinlaw does. 
 

3. We don’t even know if Kinlaw was the player Indy would have taken at 13. 
 

 

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Buckner will be elite. He is elite. Take it from someone who has presumably followed him closely longer than anyone else on this board. 2011 for me. Him and Armstead came to Oregon in the same class, with Armstead being the 5* guy from Cali and Buckner the 4* from Hawaii.  Buck outplayed him since the first game their freshman seasons. AA left a year early and Buckner had one last amazing season playing almost 90 snaps a game as a Sr.  He's a workhorse. He's a leader. And a hell of a talent. He'll be a fan favorite. 

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On 9/4/2020 at 5:53 AM, BProland85 said:

I thought Kinlaw was a player that the Colts were targeting in the draft.  I thought they would have traded up into the top 10.  I heard rumours there were some concerns with Kinlaws health. I liked Kinlaw a lot coming out of college. Thought he was a perfect fit and he was there at 13, which shocked me. I think it was for medical reasons why the Colts didnt go after him. They figured that Derek Brown would have cost to much and Kinlaw was not worth the risk. So, therefore they made the move for Buckner.It is very similar to the DT coming out of Alabama a couple years ago.  I cant recall his name.  There were concerns bout his shoulders and he slid to back end of the 1st.  He has been a stud for Washington and they probably have the best D line in football. Colts passed on Sweat last year and he looks like a stud. If Sweat and Kinlaw become all pros, then yes u can question Ballards decsion making. 

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On 9/4/2020 at 6:13 AM, Jared Cisneros said:

Even if Kinlaw does very well, it'll only be a small mistake IMO. Buckner is an all-pro, and his bust probability is extremely low. So IMO, it's either a small mistake or the right move by a huge margin. You don't get opportunities to get guys like Buckner every day.

I disagree about it being a small mistake.   U get Kinlaw at 20 years of age with a team friendly contract with the 13th pick. He performs well and u sign him to a second contract. U have him for say a good a 8 years. U sign Buckner at 24 for a 100 million dollar contract and have him for  a good 4 years.  DT's have a short shelf life I beleive in terms of elite production

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On 9/4/2020 at 10:18 AM, EastStreet said:

Mind sharing the reports. He's been listed as the #1 on every depth chart and projection/prediction I've seen. 

 

Not saying you're incorrect, but I'd like to read it.

He has been listed as a backup on the official depth chart. 

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I could care less really.  If Buck comes out and performs, and this team wins because of it, it was a good deal IMHO.  If they are really trying to win with Philip Rivers, then you HAVE to have a guy who is ready NOW, not in 2 or 3 years.  Rivers doesn't have that kind of time.  To me, it's sort of indifferent to Kinlaw who is a rookie.  Buck is an All-Pro NOW.  Kinlaw has "potential" and we all know how that can play out.  The Niners can afford to wait because they have other studs there that are proven.  Other than Houston who is on the wrong side of 30, we don't.

 

Me?  I still would have preferred Brown anyway.  I think he's gonna be a problem.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/4/2020 at 11:07 AM, CurBeatElite said:

 

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2020/08/18/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-draft-javon-kinlaw-training-camp/

 

https://ninernoise.com/2020/08/26/49ers-training-camp-javon-kinlaw-develop/

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/26/49ers-mailbag-how-does-javon-kinlaw-injured-starters-look-as-camp-closes/

 

A lot of teammates have commented that the guy is huge... but he admits himself he's been off to a poor start.  He also has health issues (I believe his knee mainly) which may make being so large a bad thing long term for him.  Buckner has been very durable (15 games as a rookie, 16 games the past 3 years) so even though he's a few years older, it seems like he's probably healthier.  Also, I think Buckner fits what Ballard wants in this D more than Kinlaw (Kinlaw seems like a space eater, which we hopefully have in Grover Stewart, but from accounts of training camps he's not winning one on one matchups or showing ability to get to the passer -- Buckner, on the other hand has 19.5 sacks over the past 2 regular seasons).

 

 

 

And while still a small sample size, Kinlaw seems to be showing some nice flashes - per Baldy:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

 

And while still a small sample size, Kinlaw seems to be showing some nice flashes - per Baldy:

 

 

Kinlaw is gonna be good it looks like. Very good. But Buckner already is good.  This trade was a win for both teams massively. There is no mistake by either team, at least at this point.

 

there is no sure thing in the draft. Not at all. The closest thing to a sure thing was Buckner and he was available. I would make this trade again, 7 days a week, twice on Sundays.  At least based on the very small sample size we have seen of Kinlaw and Buckner with their new teams. 
 

Let’s play Devils advocate, Ballard balls at giving up the first for Buckner. Okay fine, we have 13 still. Kinlaw goes 12th. Now what? You take Love at 13? Trade down?  Either way, you’d missed at at least one all pro In Buckner and from the looks of it, a blooming  second all pro in Kinlaw?

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4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Kinlaw is gonna be good it looks like. Very good. But Buckner already is good.  This trade was a win for both teams massively. There is no mistake by either team, at least at this point.

 

there is no sure thing in the draft. Not at all. The closest thing to a sure thing was Buckner and he was available. I would make this trade again, 7 days a week, twice on Sundays.  At least based on the very small sample size we have seen of Kinlaw and Buckner with their new teams. 
 

Let’s play Devils advocate, Ballard balls at giving up the first for Buckner. Okay fine, we have 13 still. Kinlaw goes 12th. Now what? You take Love at 13? Trade down?  Either way, you’d missed at at least one all pro In Buckner and from the looks of it, a blooming  second all pro in Kinlaw?

Exactly, well said. Meanwhile it's fun to keep an eye on Kinlaw - especially if he continues to show flashes and perhaps break through in a big way.

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10 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Exactly, well said. Meanwhile it's fun to keep an eye on Kinlaw - especially if he continues to show flashes and perhaps break through in a big way.

Yep, we'll have to keep an eye on his career.  I know there are injury concerns.  

Also remember that he got dropped into a great D-line which will help him excel quicker.   He would have had to be "the guy" in Indy and that may have taken a couple years.  

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I suppose comparing stats every few games could give us an idea.

 

Kinlaw (3 games)

Pass defended - 1

Sacks - 0

Tackles - 5

TFL - 0

QB hits - 0

Safeties - 0

 

Buckner (3 games)

Passes defended - 0

Sacks - 1.5

Tackles - 15

TFL - 2

QB hits - 5

Safeties - 1

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Myles said:

I suppose comparing stats every few games could give us an idea.

 

Kinlaw (3 games)

Pass defended - 1

Sacks - 0

Tackles - 5

TFL - 0

QB hits - 0

Safeties - 0

 

Buckner (3 games)

Passes defended - 0

Sacks - 1.5

Tackles - 15

TFL - 2

QB hits - 5

Safeties - 1

 

 

 

 

Yeah, instant return vs potential, I’d take the instant in this case. Now if we had a DL like the 49ers, id be saying the opposite. But we dont

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40 minutes ago, Myles said:

Yep, we'll have to keep an eye on his career.  I know there are injury concerns.  

Also remember that he got dropped into a great D-line which will help him excel quicker.   He would have had to be "the guy" in Indy and that may have taken a couple years.  

To be fair, he did drop into a great DL, but 2 of those guys Solomon Thomas and Joey Bosa are out for the year.

 

Still very happy to have Buckner. Kinlaw was never a certainty. As mentioned could of very went 12th if we stayed put, or someone trading up in front of us to get him. 

 

Buckner is going to be setting the tone for years here in Indy and couldn't be happier about that.

 

Be interesting to watch Kinlaws progress however, even more now that he will have to be a more prominent presence with Bosa and Thomas out.

 

Hope he stays healthy.

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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Yeah, instant return vs potential, I’d take the instant in this case. Now if we had a DL like the 49ers, id be saying the opposite. But we dont

I feel the same.  the 49ers are sustaining their good D-line for the future.  We are trying to get to the point of having a good D-line.  Gotta starts somewhere and with a stud like Buckner to show his skill and help change the attitude of the others, we are well on our way.  Still a long way to go.

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I viewed the trade as being about acquiring a sure thing rather than taking another risk on a rookie to fill a position of need.  Risk because of possible development slowness as with any rookie, and injury concern specific to Kinlaw.

 

And I don't think that SF was necessarily taking the opposite position, in accepting the down side risk for upside opportunity.  I believe the thinking was that SF had salary cap issues and resigning Buckner was odd man out in the big picture since they could draft another high performing rookie DL and put him on a rookie contract and save cap for other re-signs.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I viewed the trade as being about acquiring a sure thing rather than taking another risk on a rookie to fill a position of need.  Risk because of possible development slowness as with any rookie, and injury concern specific to Kinlaw.

 

And I don't think that SF was necessarily taking the opposite position, in accepting the down side risk for upside opportunity.  I believe the thinking was that SF had salary cap issues and resigning Buckner was odd man out in the big picture since they could draft another high performing rookie DL and put him on a rookie contract and save cap for other re-signs.

agreed.  This very well could go down as one of the rare trades that works for BOTH teams. 

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2 hours ago, Myles said:

I suppose comparing stats every few games could give us an idea.

 

Kinlaw (3 games)

Pass defended - 1

Sacks - 0

Tackles - 5

TFL - 0

QB hits - 0

Safeties - 0

 

Buckner (3 games)

Passes defended - 0

Sacks - 1.5

Tackles - 15

TFL - 2

QB hits - 5

Safeties - 1

 

 

 

 

 

To be fair safeties is probably not a fair individual stat to post because that's very situational.  However Buckner has clearly been producing.  

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20 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

To be fair safeties is probably not a fair individual stat to post because that's very situational.  However Buckner has clearly been producing.  

 Agree.   Does a safety also count as a sack?

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14 minutes ago, Myles said:

 Agree.   Does a safety also count as a sack?

Yes, where in which I'm pretty sure Buckner should have 2.5 sacks then, no?

 

Nvm, Houston got the safety yesterday.

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