Did Ballard possibly make a mistake?

[BProland85]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

[EastStreet]

only time will tell.

 

right now, bird in hand. 

 

all in on 2020

[Smonroe]

Time alone will tell.  

[twfish]

It's a big gamble, dont forget Kinlaws health issues. Remember when Henry Anderson was a future DPOY?

[NannyMcafee]

Only if Buckner doesn't pan out. Otherwise just because both teams do well doesn't mean a mistake was made. 

[Yoshinator]

18 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

Even if Kinlaw does very well, it'll only be a small mistake IMO. Buckner is an all-pro, and his bust probability is extremely low. So IMO, it's either a small mistake or the right move by a huge margin. You don't get opportunities to get guys like Buckner every day.

[PrincetonTiger]

No

[RollerColt]

It's a win for both teams. The 49ers get a ROI in the future, and we have someone to contribute right now. With this year, it's basically go big or go home. 

[Yoshinator]

Here's the real-life comparison, I'll put it to you like this in my case.

 

I'm 33 and the Buckner girl is 26 and a 9 in the looks department. We are completely compatible with our personalities. She also likes sports and video games.

 

The Kinlaw girl is 22 years old and also a 9 in the looks department. However, I have no idea if we're compatible or if she shares any of the same likes or dislikes as I do. A complete mystery.

 

The Buckner girl is a few years older, but completely safe and equally as attractive right now

 

The Kinlaw girl is younger and equally attractive with more long-term potential, but you don't know what you're getting until you choose her.

 

Who do you go with? I think I know. I'm choosing Buckner! 

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Here's the real-life comparison, I'll put it to you like this in my case.

 

I'm 33 and the Buckner girl is 26 and a 9 in the looks department. We are completely compatible with our personalities. She also likes sports and video games.

 

The Kinlaw girl is 22 years old and also a 9 in the looks department. However, I have no idea if we're compatible or if she shares any of the same likes or dislikes as I do. A complete mystery.

 

The Buckner girl is a few years older, but completely safe and equally as attractive right now

 

The Kinlaw girl is younger and equally attractive with more long-term potential, but you don't know what you're getting until you choose her.

 

Who do you go with? I think I know. I'm choosing Buckner! 

Best case is you invite both over, have a couple cocktails, and see if they like each other too.

[Fluke_33]

8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Here's the real-life comparison, I'll put it to you like this in my case.

 

I'm 33 and the Buckner girl is 26 and a 9 in the looks department. We are completely compatible with our personalities. She also likes sports and video games.

 

The Kinlaw girl is 22 years old and also a 9 in the looks department. However, I have no idea if we're compatible or if she shares any of the same likes or dislikes as I do. A complete mystery.

 

The Buckner girl is a few years older, but completely safe and equally as attractive right now

 

The Kinlaw girl is younger and equally attractive with more long-term potential, but you don't know what you're getting until you choose her.

 

Who do you go with? I think I know. I'm choosing Buckner! 

Either way you'll trade them in for your second wife once they age a little.  lol.

 

 

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Best case is you invite both over, have a couple cocktails, and see if they like each other too.

 

2 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Either way you'll trade them in for your second wife once they age a little.  lol.

 

 

Good stuff boys! 

[ColtStrong2013]

10 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Here's the real-life comparison, I'll put it to you like this in my case.

 

I'm 33 and the Buckner girl is 26 and a 9 in the looks department. We are completely compatible with our personalities. She also likes sports and video games.

 

The Kinlaw girl is 22 years old and also a 9 in the looks department. However, I have no idea if we're compatible or if she shares any of the same likes or dislikes as I do. A complete mystery.

 

The Buckner girl is a few years older, but completely safe and equally as attractive right now

 

The Kinlaw girl is younger and equally attractive with more long-term potential, but you don't know what you're getting until you choose her.

 

Who do you go with? I think I know. I'm choosing Buckner! 

It’s about opportunity cost. We bring an aged veteran qb in, do you want an immature 22 year old with potential over the alternative option? Uh, no. 
 

We want the stud that is going to wreck an offense and take the identity of this defense to the next level... and we want him now. 
 

No mistake was made here.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

It’s about opportunity cost. We bring an aged veteran qb in, do you want an immature 22 year old with potential over the alternative option? Uh, no. 
 

We want the stud that is going to wreck an offense and take the identity of this defense to the next level... and we want him now. 
 

No mistake was made here.

Exactly what I said.

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Exactly what I said.

I quoted yours because I agreed with it. I liked the comparison. It’s about opportunity cost with a 26 year old female vs 22 year old. The maturity difference is the same in that scenario as it is in the National Football League. With a roster that is ready now, and with an aging qb that came here to be protected well and win, we want the mature leader that is ready to wreck havoc and take us to the next level. Kinlaw could and maybe would be that in the future, but he isn’t the player that Buckner is, and in my opinion, he isn’t even the player that Buckner was coming out of college. 

[B~Town]

Kinlaw according to reports is not even going to be a starter so I would say no .

[Jackie Daytona]

Yeah, no mistake was made.  Buckner is the Big Q type impact for the DL and this scheme is the hope.  And I'd say with his history, there's about a 75% chance he has a similar level impact there.  

 

That said, Kinlaw has a few concerns, and the likelihood he would have a Big Q style impact on the DL in this no-offseason year, is about 15%..... Only about 40% he would ever have that level of impact here. Not many players do to that extent.

 

Now, will Kinlaw do very well in SF? That I put higher like 60% plus probability.... He's not the focal point of the DL and is surrounded by pro bowlers, if he stays healthy hell do well for them.  They couldn't pay Buck, and they get a 60% shot at a cheap replacement for four years vs. nothing... No brainier for both teams in my mind.

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, B~Town said:

Kinlaw according to reports is not even going to be a starter so I would say no .

Mind sharing the reports. He's been listed as the #1 on every depth chart and projection/prediction I've seen. 

 

Not saying you're incorrect, but I'd like to read it.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Here's the real-life comparison, I'll put it to you like this in my case.

 

I'm 33 and the Buckner girl is 26 and a 9 in the looks department. We are completely compatible with our personalities. She also likes sports and video games.

 

The Kinlaw girl is 22 years old and also a 9 in the looks department. However, I have no idea if we're compatible or if she shares any of the same likes or dislikes as I do. A complete mystery.

 

The Buckner girl is a few years older, but completely safe and equally as attractive right now

 

The Kinlaw girl is younger and equally attractive with more long-term potential, but you don't know what you're getting until you choose her.

 

Who do you go with? I think I know. I'm choosing Buckner! 

She’s a “9...and likes video games and sports”? I thought you said this was a real life comparison.

 

To add to it...she would also be much much more expensive to date...and while you have a good income...it’s still finite...and you would have to sacrifice in other areas.

 

But I would choose Buckner as well...mainly because Kinlaw was never even a guarantee to be available.

[PeterBowman]

hmmm Buckner is the close to a sure thing, just hit his prime, has a proven track record on field and in the locker room. Also appears to be the missing piece for the defense to take it to the next level. 

 

Kinlaw could be all that too but is not proven yet. 

 

If Kinlaw pans out then it'll be a win win for both teams. 

[PrincetonTiger]

2 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

hmmm Buckner is the close to a sure thing, just hit his prime, has a proven track record on field and in the locker room. Also appears to be the missing piece for the defense to take it to the next level. 

 

Kinlaw could be all that too but is not proven yet. 

 

If Kinlaw pans out then it'll be a win win for both teams. 

[CurBeatElite]

40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Mind sharing the reports. He's been listed as the #1 on every depth chart and projection/prediction I've seen. 

 

Not saying you're incorrect, but I'd like to read it.

 

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2020/08/18/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-draft-javon-kinlaw-training-camp/

 

https://ninernoise.com/2020/08/26/49ers-training-camp-javon-kinlaw-develop/

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/26/49ers-mailbag-how-does-javon-kinlaw-injured-starters-look-as-camp-closes/

 

A lot of teammates have commented that the guy is huge... but he admits himself he's been off to a poor start.  He also has health issues (I believe his knee mainly) which may make being so large a bad thing long term for him.  Buckner has been very durable (15 games as a rookie, 16 games the past 3 years) so even though he's a few years older, it seems like he's probably healthier.  Also, I think Buckner fits what Ballard wants in this D more than Kinlaw (Kinlaw seems like a space eater, which we hopefully have in Grover Stewart, but from accounts of training camps he's not winning one on one matchups or showing ability to get to the passer -- Buckner, on the other hand has 19.5 sacks over the past 2 regular seasons).

 

 

[MFT5]

it was a no brainer. Buckners 26. hes good NOW. this team can win a Championship now. En 3 years when Kinlaw is closer to his potential, we'll have had 2 rookie draft classes to augment the Trade.

[B~Town]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Mind sharing the reports. He's been listed as the #1 on every depth chart and projection/prediction I've seen. 

 

Not saying you're incorrect, but I'd like to read it.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/2430-face-49ers-kinlaw-isnt-ready-nfl/

 

[Myles]

This was discussed when the trade happened.  Ballard used the pick on a proven player in his prime.   Kinlaw has had health issues.   If Kinlaw has a long great career, perhaps and argument can be made that the decision was wrong, but not a strong argument.  Buckner is easily the better player now.  

[dw49]

6 minutes ago, Myles said:

This was discussed when the trade happened.  Ballard used the pick on a proven player in his prime.   Kinlaw has had health issues.   If Kinlaw has a long great career, perhaps and argument can be made that the decision was wrong, but not a strong argument.  Buckner is easily the better player now.  

 

How do we even know if Kinlaw would have been our pick at 1.13 ? Not only may he not have been at the top of Ballard's board but we could have traded down even if he was....

[Yoshinator]

Just now, dw49 said:

 

How do we even know if Kinlaw would have been our pick at 1.13 ? Not only may he not have been at the top of Ballard's board but we could have traded down even if he was....

We don't know, but we can at least assume Ballard was after a DT as that's what he was he was trading for in Buckner. He probably correctly assumed that Brown wouldn't fall, and that created the decision between trading for Buckner or taking Kinlaw at 13. I'm guessing he liked Buckner better, and the knee arthritis issues from Kinlaw only complicated things. So Buckner was the easy choice.

[Myles]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

We don't know, but we can at least assume Ballard was after a DT as that's what he was he was trading for in Buckner. He probably correctly assumed that Brown wouldn't fall, and that created the decision between trading for Buckner or taking Kinlaw at 13. I'm guessing he liked Buckner better, and the knee arthritis issues from Kinlaw only complicated things. So Buckner was the easy choice.

I agree.  The only other option would have been taking a WR at that spot (Jeudy, Lamb).  But with the amount of good WR's in this draft, he would have been better off trading down.   Taking a stud DL in Buckner with the pick was the smart move.

[Four2itus]

You could insert every single GM in the league into this sentence.

 

"Did ___________ possibly make a mistake?"         The answer for every single one would be yes.

 

 

But for my own team wants....I'll take the man hwo has produced in the league... over the youth. 

[CurBeatElite]

30 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

it was a no brainer. Buckners 26. hes good NOW. this team can win a Championship now. En 3 years when Kinlaw is closer to his potential, we'll have had 2 rookie draft classes to augment the Trade.

 

If Kinlaw makes it to his potential.  I think that was a major issue with him when he was being scouted.  Buckner has had essentially no health related issues in his 4 years in the league.  Kinlaw missed 5 games as a sophomore in college, 2 as a junior and played all 12 as a senior.  That said, knee arthritis is a pretty serious issue for anyone relying on their legs to play sports.  It's compounded being a 320 lbs guy who has to carry all that weight on the knees, plus the weight of the OL whose blocks you're trying to shed on top of that... and on top of that, I think Buckner is almost exactly what Ballard was after, a true 3 tech who can really disrupt the pocket.  It sounds like, from 49er training camp notes that Buckner is having a very hard time getting passed a single blocker, whereas Buckner's proved time and again he can get through 2 blockers.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, B~Town said:

https://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/2430-face-49ers-kinlaw-isnt-ready-nfl/

 

This looks like one of those fan authored pieces. I mean OK, but this goes against what Williams is saying.

Quote

 

The 49ers traded away a Pro Bowl defensive tackle, DeForest Buckner, for the first-round draft pick that would become rookie defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw. San Francisco left tackle Trent Williams thinks the 49ers made a good move.

Williams said he’s been blown away by how well Kinlaw has played in his rookie training camp.

“Luckily I haven’t had to go against him in a one-on-one setting, him and [Laken Tomlinson] have some pretty epic battles, but I’ve had to block him in team play and he’s a ton man, he’s a lot to deal with,” Williams said on KNBR, via NBCSportsBayArea.com. “Even when he’s pulling off his rush, you still feel that power, you still feel that size. You can’t really teach that, you can’t really coach that. I tell him all the time he’s got Defensive Player of the Year written all over him. Getting with the D-line coach they have, [Kris] Kocurek is probably the best in the land, I honestly feel like he’s going to turn him into a nightmare in this NFL.”

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/

[CanuckColt]

6 hours ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

GMs make mistakes all the time... is not an exact science.

The really good GMs correct their mistakes quickly and move on.

The poor GMs are ego *s and cling to their bad decisions and refuse to admit their poor, costly, dumb moves.

[Scott Pennock]

7 hours ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

Robert Windsor has been given kudos during camp for being good too.....just sayin

You never pass up an ALL PRO talent that is already established over a maybe.....

I ride with Buckner all day over Kinlaw!

[CR91]

7 hours ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

 

Mel Kiper called Jamarcus Russell the next John Elway. You never know what a rookie will become.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Nope was the right move!

[krunk]

No mistake because Ballard was not guaranteed of Kinlaw being there.   He could have gone earlier than our pick very easily.  We needed a dominant 3 technique bad enough that he just went out bought us one.  He's always said he would do that if the fit was right. 

[atapcl]

12 hours ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

Not really a mistake. There was no guarantee Kinlaw would be there if we kept the pick.

[Imgrandojji]

12 hours ago, BProland85 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/04/trent-williams-thinks-rookie-javon-kinlaw-is-a-future-defensive-player-of-the-year/
 

Just wanted to pass this along, for what it’s worth. 

Every GM makes mistakes every hour of the day of the week of the year.  Good GMs make fewer of them.  But nobody makes none.

[ColtStrong2013]

34 minutes ago, atapcl said:

Not really a mistake. There was no guarantee Kinlaw would be there if we kept the pick.

true. Also true is that Ballard thought he’d go much higher (or maybe thought he wasn’t worth a first altogether) so dealing the first in a sure deal on a proven guy ahead of the draft was well worth the money (and not losing any extra picks)

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Imgrandojji said:

Every GM makes mistakes every hour of the day of the week of the year.  Good GMs make fewer of them.  But nobody makes none.

Now THIS is a good post.   Thank you.