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Malik Hooker and a pick(s) for Jamal Adams?

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On the surface that looks like a trade that could work for both teams.  Somehow I don't see Ballard making the initial call.

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Hooker is a free safety.    Adams is a strong safety.     So it’s not a natural fit. 
 

In addition, the number of high picks the Jets would want would stun most here.

 

Also, we’d be rendering Willis as a part-time status.    So we’d be blowing up our entire safety line while hurting our future building because of the loss of the high draft picks we’d have to include.

 

Ballard would want no part of this deal. 

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The Jets have stated they will not trade him despite his request. It's a no for me. You know who cost Ballard a total of $3 million over 4 years? Julian Blackmon! This kid is going to be better than people think. The Jets are going to want a Khalil Mack type package in return for Adams and Ballard wouldn't even entertain the idea of acquiring him. 

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Pass -- I think I would be more comfortable with Ballard keeping the draft pick or picks. Plus the money always inters the picture.

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Maybe they would take Hooker, Marcus Johnson and a 2nd.  The more I think about it if Buckner was worth our 13th this year Adams could be worth our 1st next year assuming it will be at least in the mid 20's.   

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I'd happily give up Khari and a 2nd rounder. Maybe Khari and 2nd rounder, and a little more.

 

Keep in mind that the Jets (Greg Williams) uses Adams a bit differently than we would.  While the Jet's use a C2 or T2 scheme, they get real exotic on 3rd down. Adams had like 10 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. Only one INT though. Would Eberflus, who was one of the least exotic 3rd down callers in the league, really get the most out of Adams. Would Adams do as well staying in C2/T2 instead of blitzing or staying in the box on 3rd? Or would Flus change things up.

 

Regardless, he'd be a stone cold awesome upgrade to Khari, just not sure we'd utilize him to his strengths. That might be why he didn't list us. I also think we drafted a pretty good SS this year (I know many think he'll end up at FS), and just need to be patient for rehab.

 

I also don't like the idea of 1st round pick (or more) for a SS. SSs are a bit devalued in today's NFL. I'd rather use next year's 1st on a non-devalued position like DE, OT, etc. Or at worst, turn our 1st in multiple picks... I have a feeling our 1st next year will be a very late rounder :-)

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On 6/19/2020 at 11:11 AM, richard pallo said:

Maybe they would take Hooker, Marcus Johnson and a 2nd.  The more I think about it if Buckner was worth our 13th this year Adams could be worth our 1st next year assuming it will be at least in the mid 20's.   

 

With the addition of Blackmon, we have far bigger needs than safety come next offseason. We need depth at OT and DE, and most likely another starter at TE and CB.

 

I dont wanna pay Adams as a top flight safety when we have a capable strong safety in Willis, and a talented cover safety in Blackmon for the future. If Blackmon shows struggle or lack of progress, then I may consider making a move to add a safety next to Willis for the future. 

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No dice! Keep draftting good replacements.....We're almost there, no need for distractions and chemistry imbalance at this time....Stay the course...

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9 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

With the addition of Blackmon, we have far bigger needs than safety come next offseason. We need depth at OT and DE, and most likely another starter at TE and CB.

 

I dont wanna pay Adams as a top flight safety when we have a capable strong safety in Willis, and a talented cover safety in Blackmon for the future. If Blackmon shows struggle or lack of progress, then I may consider making a move to add a safety next to Willis for the future. 

S is probably a top 2 or 3 weak spot for us currently though. Regardless of how you feel about Hooker, Willis struggled in coverage big time last year, and Blackmon is a total wildcard even if you ignore the injury/rehab. Even if Blackmon is able to compete mid season like CB projects, our depth is limited to Odum and Milligan early. An injury bug at S would be awful.

 

I'm not interested in paying Adams big dollars, or giving up significant draft capital to get him (I don't think he'd have the same results in our system), but I do have concerns about depth. If Geathers is still hanging around later, I'd pick him up for a team friendly short term deal just for depth.

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You want CB to trade picks away, then sign Adams to a big deal. So what about the big pay days coming for Leonard, and Big Q? Plus we will be out of picks after trading them away for Adams. Nope not buying. 

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Adams is a really good player. I don't want to pay $17-20m/year for him (his reported asking price), and I don't want to add in premium picks on top of that. For the value, no thanks.

 

Then there's his attitude. I have no problem with a player wanting a new contract, even after Year 3, or wanting to be traded, or both. I don't even have a problem with a player being upset because there were reportedly trade discussions previously. Whatever his issues are with the Jets, it's his prerogative to be upset.

 

But he comes across as being very self-centered, to me. Somewhat unyielding and unreasonable. I don't think he would be good for chemistry.

 

And, he named eight teams to which he would like to be traded. The Colts weren't on that list. 

 

I'd pass on him. 

 

Also, we just gave up a first rounder for a fourth year player. I like that trade, based on the player, positional value, and the team's needs. But I don't want to give up our first rounder in consecutive years, even if I liked the player and value and it lined up perfectly with team needs. 

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On 6/21/2020 at 12:23 AM, EastStreet said:

S is probably a top 2 or 3 weak spot for us currently though. Regardless of how you feel about Hooker, Willis struggled in coverage big time last year, and Blackmon is a total wildcard even if you ignore the injury/rehab. Even if Blackmon is able to compete mid season like CB projects, our depth is limited to Odum and Milligan early. An injury bug at S would be awful.

 

I'm not interested in paying Adams big dollars, or giving up significant draft capital to get him (I don't think he'd have the same results in our system), but I do have concerns about depth. If Geathers is still hanging around later, I'd pick him up for a team friendly short term deal just for depth.

 

I don't want to pay for Adams either. The only S I would consider making a Buckner-esque move (trade and sign) would be Derwin James. He is a transcendent player.

 

But I do agree that S is a position that will need some investments over the next year or two...especially if they let Hooker go.

 

Right now, Blackmon is a question mark...we just don't know if he will return to good form...let alone make the transition to NFL S (after one year in college).

 

It doesn't get talked about a lot...but S was a weakness for this team last year...at least in the passing game. Hooker and (especially) Willis were not good in coverage. This scheme allows for a higher completion percentage...but it needs to be far less accommodating. Teams just attack the middle of the field in the passing game:

 

158291352_ColtsDefenseMiddle-min(1).thumb.JPG.adcffd52250d1bdcda0f9ab8ae74c709.JPG

 

Not only do teams have a higher percentage of success attacking the middle...but teams are also getting more yards/per play (until they get to the red zone...where the defense fortunately tightens up).

 

Here's another scary stat:

 

- Colts were #1 in completions (29) that traveled 21+ air yards. That equates to 9% of pass completions traveling 21+ yards...also worst in the NFL. This is where sound tackling becomes paramount...but you would prefer to not have completions traveling that far to begin with. The CBs are part of that...namely Desir and Rock...but Hooker has the highest DADOT of any DB on the team...so he is a big culprit.

 

Here's a visualization of passer rating by depth and target zone:

 

image.thumb.png.30031067d6568b5bb7aa2aa04605e79b.png

 

Needless to say...teams have a lot of success attacking the middle of the field...as well as the S position. Okereke could be a key next season at MLB...but the S play has to improve big time in the passing game.

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8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

I don't want to pay for Adams either. The only S I would consider making a Buckner-esque move (trade and sign) would be Derwin James. He is a transcendent player.

 

But I do agree that S is a position that will need some investments over the next year or two...especially if they let Hooker go.

 

Right now, Blackmon is a question mark...we just don't know if he will return to good form...let alone make the transition to NFL S (after one year in college).

 

It doesn't get talked about a lot...but S was a weakness for this team last year...at least in the passing game. Hooker and (especially) Willis were not good in coverage. This scheme allows for a higher completion percentage...but it needs to be far less accommodating. Teams just attack the middle of the field in the passing game:

 

158291352_ColtsDefenseMiddle-min(1).thumb.JPG.adcffd52250d1bdcda0f9ab8ae74c709.JPG

 

Not only do teams have a higher percentage of success attacking the middle...but teams are also getting more yards/per play (until they get to the red zone...where the defense fortunately tightens up).

 

Here's another scary stat:

 

- Colts were #1 in completions (29) that traveled 21+ air yards. That equates to 9% of pass completions traveling 21+ yards...also worst in the NFL. This is where sound tackling becomes paramount...but you would prefer to not have completions traveling that far to begin with. The CBs are part of that...namely Desir and Rock...but Hooker has the highest DADOT of any DB on the team...so he is a big culprit.

 

Here's a visualization of passer rating by depth and target zone:

 

image.thumb.png.30031067d6568b5bb7aa2aa04605e79b.png

 

Needless to say...teams have a lot of success attacking the middle of the field...as well as the S position. Okereke could be a key next season at MLB...but the S play has to improve big time in the passing game.

Hey where'd you get the first set of charts. I know the directionals come from Sharp, but don't recall the checkerboards. 

 

But yes, agree on all of it. What I do believe though is lack of pass rush was a big part of it. We were 6th lowest in blitz %, and bottom 10 in QB pressure. A C2 just doesn't see a lot of success without a better pressure %. 

 

Hoping we see more man this year along with a higher % of blitz and pressures. Hooker needs to roam more in C1 especially on 3rd down. Willis is best when he's in the box. I have zero ideal where Blackmon shakes out, but my gut says SS. Just not sure he'll have the range for FS, and a bit skeptical of him in general playing zone given he's coming from a heavy man D.

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10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Hey where'd you get the first set of charts. I know the directionals come from Sharp, but don't recall the checkerboards. 

 

But yes, agree on all of it. What I do believe though is lack of pass rush was a big part of it. We were 6th lowest in blitz %, and bottom 10 in QB pressure. A C2 just doesn't see a lot of success without a better pressure %. 

 

Hoping we see more man this year along with a higher % of blitz and pressures. Hooker needs to roam more in C1 especially on 3rd down. Willis is best when he's in the box. I have zero ideal where Blackmon shakes out, but my gut says SS. Just not sure he'll have the range for FS, and a bit skeptical of him in general playing zone given he's coming from a heavy man D.


All of those graphs and stats are from Sharp. The first one is under “Defense” and then “Efficiency/Success” and “Team Defensive Success.” I changed it to IND and just pass plays.

 

I agree that the lack of pass rush really exposed the pass coverage last year. If that improves...I hope to see that completion % decrease...as well as the deep pass plays. But overall, the Ss and MLB have to improve in pass coverage as well.

 

As for S...I think Willis will continue to play closer to the LOS. I think he could become a liability deep. And I like the idea of Blackmon playing SS as well. I think he will get a shot at FS...because Ballard thinks he can play there...but we just don’t know if he can play that type of S. If he can’t...then they still need a rangy FS type...and if that’s not Hooker...I wouldn’t mind seeing Tell get a shot. Good chance though that this player is not on the roster...and another early draft pick will be a S.

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10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Hey where'd you get the first set of charts. I know the directionals come from Sharp, but don't recall the checkerboards. 

 

But yes, agree on all of it. What I do believe though is lack of pass rush was a big part of it. We were 6th lowest in blitz %, and bottom 10 in QB pressure. A C2 just doesn't see a lot of success without a better pressure %. 

 

Hoping we see more man this year along with a higher % of blitz and pressures. Hooker needs to roam more in C1 especially on 3rd down. Willis is best when he's in the box. I have zero ideal where Blackmon shakes out, but my gut says SS. Just not sure he'll have the range for FS, and a bit skeptical of him in general playing zone given he's coming from a heavy man D.


Just realized the 21+ air yard completions was defaulted to 2017 (damn Sharp). Please neglect that stat.

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9 hours ago, shasta519 said:


All of those graphs and stats are from Sharp. The first one is under “Defense” and then “Efficiency/Success” and “Team Defensive Success.” I changed it to IND and just pass plays.

10-4. I thought so. Just never saw the first set. Appreciate it!

9 hours ago, shasta519 said:

I agree that the lack of pass rush really exposed the pass coverage last year. If that improves...I hope to see that completion % decrease...as well as the deep pass plays. But overall, the Ss and MLB have to improve in pass coverage as well.

Yup. It's REALLY easy to pick apart a zone D with a bad pass rush. It's really just a matter of time and IIRC, we gave up way too much time-to-throw for opposing QBs.

9 hours ago, shasta519 said:

As for S...I think Willis will continue to play closer to the LOS. I think he could become a liability deep. And I like the idea of Blackmon playing SS as well. I think he will get a shot at FS...because Ballard thinks he can play there...but we just don’t know if he can play that type of S. If he can’t...then they still need a rangy FS type...and if that’s not Hooker...I wouldn’t mind seeing Tell get a shot. Good chance though that this player is not on the roster...and another early draft pick will be a S.

Willis was absolutely a liability when in simple C2 and T2. I've posted the target/completions and grades. Teams certainly preferred to target him over Hooker. IF we get more pass rush, and IF we play more C1, then yes, I agree Willis will play more in the box. 

 

I think Blackmon will get a look at FS (precisely for the reason you imply - because Ballard sees him there), but I think ultimately it's a big ask all things considered. I do think he'd make a great SS with the ability to play up and back far better than Willis.

 

And agreed, our long term FS may not be on the roster. I do think Hooker will rebound this year, especially if the pass rush improves and we play more man (allowing him to roam). He'd be the guy I see as come-back POY.

 

Personally I hope Tell sticks at CB. I wouldn't complain if he emerged as a FS though. I just don't think he'd physical enough. As one of the talking heads said about him, "he's almost always the nail, not the hammer" lol.

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9 hours ago, shasta519 said:


Just realized the 21+ air yard completions was defaulted to 2017 (damn Sharp). Please neglect that stat.

Yup, I was just going to question that now that I'm in the right spot. 

 

Sharp defaults are strange. Some default latest, some earliest.

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14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Willis was absolutely a liability when in simple C2 and T2. I've posted the target/completions and grades. Teams certainly preferred to target him over Hooker. IF we get more pass rush, and IF we play more C1, then yes, I agree Willis will play more in the box. 

 

 

This is my angle. I could be wrong, but I feel they want to play more Cover 1 and Cover 3 variations than they have the last two years. Even if you have a great pass rush, you have to vary your coverages. Any Cover 2 is easy to confirm post-snap, so you throw hot and average 7 yards/attempt, control the clock and win with 24 points. You can do that with 6 blockers all game long.

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20 hours ago, Superman said:

This is my angle. I could be wrong, but I feel they want to play more Cover 1 and Cover 3 variations than they have the last two years. Even if you have a great pass rush, you have to vary your coverages. Any Cover 2 is easy to confirm post-snap, so you throw hot and average 7 yards/attempt, control the clock and win with 24 points. You can do that with 6 blockers all game long.

Flus did say the wanted to play more man or C1 when they drafted Rock. Just didn't really happen for one reason or the other. Except for the KC game, seemed like we were in C2 most of the time. 

 

This year, we play some decent QBs, so I really hope we can vary more. We play Big Ben, Rodgers, Jackson, Cousins, Carr, and Stafford out of conference, while playing Watson and Tannehill both twice. I know Tannehill didn't toss it a lot last year, but he was highly effective (and will likely have a bigger role this year). And Jackson is just a unicorn of sorts.

 

Even some of the QBs that are rooks, or on lesser teams like Burrow, Mayfield, Minshew x2, and Darnold, have the capacity to throw it all over the field. The only "bad" QB we play IMO is Trubisky, and he could be replaced by Foles.

 

Given our schedule, a Charmin soft zone like last year could be painful. It'll take a pass D that is more varied like you suggest. At least our O is more capable this year.

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San Fran is the front runner. How do these teams keep signing these high priced guys and never have major cap hits? I thought they were in cap hell, that's why they traded Forester to us? I guess your only in cap hell until another high priced guy is available..

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48 minutes ago, ColtJax said:

San Fran is the front runner. How do these teams keep signing these high priced guys and never have major cap hits? I thought they were in cap hell, that's why they traded Forester to us? I guess your only in cap hell until another high priced guy is available..

I think they have about 10-15M available compared to our 23ish.

I guess they're willing to spend every last dime, and we're saving for a rainy day lol.

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On 6/18/2020 at 5:55 PM, FalseStart said:

Malik Hooker and a pick(s) for Jamal Adams?  Thoughts...

Never gonna happen.. 

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