Stats (Luck vs Rivers) and Poll (Rivers 2020)

[EastStreet]

Decided to finally take a look at Luck vs Rivers stats. I was surprised a little at some of things, but overall, they are very similar in most ways. The biggest thing (which we all know) to me is River's durability. Zero games missed due to injury, while be sacked a slightly higher rate. The other was that Rivers threw less attempts per game started (that surprised me a bit). TD and INT % are almost identical. Rivers has more yards per attempt, and higher air yards (I did not post the adv stats) in general. Another thing that surprised me was River's higher passer rating. QBR average wasn't available, but guessing it would have been similar looking at the individual years. I've bolded the individual stats that stuck out to me.

 

Stat Name                          Luck                 Rivers
Pro Years                            7                      16
Years as QB1                      7                      14
Reg Sea Injury Games      26 (23%)          0 (0%)
Pro Bowls                           4                       8
Reg Sea Rec (win%)          53-33 (62%)    123-101 (55%)
Playoff Rec (win%)            4-4 (50%)        5-6 (45%)
Completion %                    60.8%               64.7% 
Atts/Game Started             38.3                  33.9  
TD%                                    5.2%                  5.2%
INT%                                   2.5%                  2.6%
Fumbles (Fum/Game)      44 (0.51)          109 (0.48)
Yards/Game                        275.2                 260
Yards/Attempt                   7.2                     7.8
AY/A                                     7.1                      7.7
NY/A                                    6.51                   7.04
ANY/A                                  6.42                   6.92
Yards/Completion              11.8                  12.1
Passer Rating                     89.5                   95.1
Sack %                                 5.0%                   5.5%

 

Luck Awards
4× Pro Bowl (2012–2014, 2018)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2018)
NFL passing touchdowns leader (2014)

 

Rivers Awards
8× Pro Bowl (2006, 2009–2011, 2013, 2016–2018)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2013)
NFL completion percentage leader (2013)
NFL passing yards leader (2010)
NFL passing touchdowns leader (2008)
NFL passer rating leader (2008)

[w87r]

Over

Under

Over

 

Expecting good things.

 

 

Those numbers are pretty similar. I like that 0% missed games.

[csmopar]

53 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Decided to finally take a look at Luck vs Rivers stats. I was surprised a little at some of things, but overall, they are very similar in most ways. The biggest thing (which we all know) to me is River's durability. Zero games missed due to injury, while be sacked a slightly higher rate. The other was that Rivers threw less attempts per game started (that surprised me a bit). TD and INT % are almost identical. Rivers has more yards per attempt, and higher air yards (I did not post the adv stats) in general. Another thing that surprised me was River's higher passer rating. QBR average wasn't available, but guessing it would have been similar looking at the individual years. I've bolded the individual stats that stuck out to me.

 

Stat Name                          Luck                 Rivers
Pro Years                            7                      16
Years as QB1                      7                      14
Reg Sea Injury Games      26 (23%)          0 (0%)
Pro Bowls                           4                       8
Reg Sea Rec (win%)          53-33 (62%)    123-101 (55%)
Playoff Rec (win%)            4-4 (50%)        5-6 (45%)
Completion %                    60.8%               64.7% 
Atts/Game Started             38.3                  33.9  
TD%                                    5.2%                  5.2%
INT%                                   2.5%                  2.6%
Fumbles (Fum/Game)      44 (0.51)          109 (0.48)
Yards/Game                        275.2                 260
Yards/Attempt                   7.2                     7.8
AY/A                                     7.1                      7.7
NY/A                                    6.51                   7.04
ANY/A                                  6.42                   6.92
Yards/Completion              11.8                  12.1
Passer Rating                     89.5                   95.1
Sack %                                 5.0%                   5.5%

 

Luck Awards
4× Pro Bowl (2012–2014, 2018)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2018)
NFL passing touchdowns leader (2014)

 

Rivers Awards
8× Pro Bowl (2006, 2009–2011, 2013, 2016–2018)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (2013)
NFL completion percentage leader (2013)
NFL passing yards leader (2010)
NFL passing touchdowns leader (2008)
NFL passer rating leader (2008)

Way to jinx him...

[Dogg63]

Under, under, under.

 

I think the stud OL + the incredibly strong run game will lower the number of passes, which will lower his totals across all 3 of those categories (along with sack%, fumbles/game, int%). For the same reason, I think his QBR will go up along with most other passing efficiency stats (ay/a, ny/a, TD%, etc) because it'll be easier for him to get completions due to having more time to throw, when needed. 

 

I think this is a really good thing!

[Lucky Colts Fan]

Cool thread @EastStreet!  

 

I voted Under for all 3.  I just don't think we're going to be relying on Rivers' arm to win games for us, so he probably won't be putting up video game numbers.

 

I think our running game is going to set the tone early in games, and be used to effectively close out games when we have a lead.  I can see Rivers having something like 3200 yds, 24 TDs, 8 ints.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

Cool thread @EastStreet!  

 

I voted Under for all 3.  I just don't think we're going to be relying on Rivers' arm to win games for us, so he probably won't be putting up video game numbers.

 

I think our running game is going to set the tone early in games, and be used to effectively close out games when we have a lead.  I can see Rivers having something like 3200 yds, 24 TDs, 8 ints.

 

Thanks LCF. Purely my opinion, but I think we'll pass plenty. Maybe less than 2018, but significantly more than 2019. It'll likely be a nice balance. I'm hoping we pass early, get up on teams, which will set up the run later when we want to salt away the game.

[NannyMcafee]

I could see him having more than 28 TDs. I could see the Colts passing more in the red zone, inflating his TD numbers. He will not have 4000 yards. 

[EastStreet]

To all the under 4000 crowds, Luck averaged 4000+, as did Rivers, in his career. 

 

Since 2011, about a 3rd (top 10-11 QBs each year) of the starting QBs in the NFL have hit the 4000 mark each year.

 

Now that we have WRs, it would surprise me a bit if we didn't use them.

[Bolts2Colts]

Thank you so much for the comparison stats and insights.  

 

What do you say to the haters who argue that Rivers is washed and his arm is gone, even though Mike Williams led the league in YPC while being #50 in YAC?  Rivers threw some real stinkers in primetime.  

 

He's never had anything close to an elite offensive line combined with a rushing attack that could be one of the best in the league.  That's one reason I think his total yards will be closer to Martyball days (~3400).

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Bolts2Colts said:

Thank you so much for the comparison stats and insights.  

 

What do you say to the haters who argue that Rivers is washed and his arm is gone, even though Mike Williams led the league in YPC while being #50 in YAC?  Rivers threw some real stinkers in primetime.  

 

He's never had anything close to an elite offensive line combined with a rushing attack that could be one of the best in the league.  That's one reason I think his total yards will be closer to Martyball days (~3400).

 

You're more than welcome. Glad you enjoy.

 

I watched a few games of Rivers on NFL Networks replays. His arm isn't gone IMO. What I personally saw was a guy trying to make a comeback some of the time, and a guy under a lot of pressure (his OL was ranked 28th last year) other times. He certainly wasn't perfect, but in no way do I see a washed up guy. I also think the chip on his shoulder due to being more or less cut, plus the washed up talk, will give him an injection of youth, so to speak.

 

Now, he has likely the best OL he's ever had, and likely has the best 1-2-3 punch (counting Hines as the catching APB) of RBs he's had. If TY and Campbell stay healthy, he's got some great weapons to go along with Pittman, which should be a dangerous 1-2-3 at WR. He could make Pittman a star as rook.

 

I certainly think we'll be a great running team, but I don't think Reich wants to be one dimensional. Balance helps open up both sides of the O, and I think we'll see plenty of both. Keep the Ds guessing is my prediction of what Reich will do. We have the capability to punish the weakness of any D, and we play several games/teams that were among the 10 worst at passing D. Look for Rivers to have good days both games against Houston, both games against TN, vs Detroit, and Raiders. Wouldn't shock me if he had a big game vs Baltimore if our D can't slow Jackson.

 

I do think he eclipses 4000, but wouldn't be shocked to see him at 3600ish.

[Lancer1]

I chose under, under & over.  Due to the Colts' defense, running game & skilled O-line, I would expect this team to play with a lead the majority of the time and although Philip is capable of slinging it for 4,000 yards every year, I think the offense will be balanced and he won't need to throw as much, or take as many chances so he probably won't throw for as many yards, or as many picks but the touchdowns will be there, due to shootouts or opportunities to put teams away.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I went under 4000, over 14 INT's. I know that sounds negative but he will still be good. I have him at around 3800 yards and around 16 INT's = above average to good. I think we are going to be a run first team is why I have him slightly below 4000, 16 INT's isn't bad and better than the 20 he threw last season. I do have him over 28 TD's, I will say he throws 30. So I have 3800 yards, 30 TD's, 16 INT's as of now which is good if we are in the top 5 running the ball. I can see us being in the top 5 rush yards wise.

[Myles]

I think Hines is the X factor.   He could be used to catch allot of basses in the backfield which will essentially be rushing yards but they will show up as passing yards.    

[EastStreet]

14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I went under 4000, over 14 INT's. I know that sounds negative but he will still be good. I have him at around 3800 yards and around 16 INT's = above average to good. I think we are going to be a run first team is why I have him slightly below 4000, 16 INT's isn't bad and better than the 20 he threw last season. I do have him over 28 TD's, I will say he throws 30. So I have 3800 yards, 30 TD's, 16 INT's as of now which is good if we are in the top 5 running the ball. I can see us being in the top 5 rush yards wise.

With PR going from the 28th ranked OL to 3rd, the overall speed of our pass catchers, and the great balance our run game will bring.....I'm going to predict he picks Ds apart and has 10 or less INTs.  Could be totally wrong, I just think it's the area he'll be most conscious of, and works the hardest on. Not to mention he won't have the literal (OL) or figurative (having to win games on his own) pressure holding him back.

5 hours ago, Myles said:

I think Hines is the X factor.   He could be used to catch allot of basses in the backfield which will essentially be rushing yards but they will show up as passing yards.    

Hines could have a huge year if they keep him involved in the passing game. His 2018 was incredible. His return skills in 2019 were fantastic. I know some think we'll be a run first team, but I think we have way too many pass catching weapons this year not to use them... The O could be special.