prediction

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

colts vs tampa bay in super bowl!!!!! thoughts?

[Nate!]

Would prefer Ravens vs Bucs. Got Bucs at +3000 and Ravens at +1400.

 

No though, can’t see Colts making the super bowl.  Do anticipate them to be highly competitive and win the south though but not enough to make to the Bowl

[EastStreet]

Looking at the schedule, I could see us being 13-3 with a home win (tie breaker) over Baltimore. If we can somehow get a 1 seed in the playoffs, I like our chances. If we have to play (playoffs) in Balt, or especially KC, I don't see it happening.

[w87r]

58 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

colts vs tampa bay in super bowl!!!!! thoughts?

I will say I like the Colts chances more than the Bucs.

[w87r]

42 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Looking at the schedule, I could see us being 13-3 with a home win (tie breaker) over Baltimore. If we can somehow get a 1 seed in the playoffs, I like our chances. If we have to play (playoffs) in Balt, or especially KC, I don't see it happening.

Good thing about our team. The way I'm expecting us to play, dominate TOP and stop the run, travels well.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, w87r said:

Good thing about our team. The way I'm expecting us to play, dominate TOP and stop the run, travels well.

Didn't work out so well for SF... 

 

 

[Dogg63]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Didn't work out so well for SF... 

 

 

It took them to the SB...not exactly a lousy season.

[EastStreet]

18 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

It took them to the SB...not exactly a lousy season.

Didn't say it was lousy. Point is, TOP isn't always a winning recipe, especially when playing high flying O. SF needs more balance on O.

 

They did have a soft schedule though. 

 

I'd add that they lost to Baltimore too.

[w87r]

16 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

It took them to the SB...not exactly a lousy season.

Yeah, not to sure what he is talking about.

 

Thread literally about 2 teams making the SB.

 

He gives his reason for wanting HFA, because he is afraid of going on the road.

 

I give a reason why I think we travel well and can still get there.

 

He brings up a team that:

1. Made the SB(using our style)

2. Had HFA and didn't play a road game.(his biggest worry)

3.SB is neutral location, both teams travel(when they lost)

 

Idk?

[w87r]

27 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Didn't say it was lousy. Point is, TOP isn't always a winning recipe, especially when playing high flying O. SF needs more balance on O.

 

They did have a soft schedule though. 

 

I'd add that they lost to Baltimore too.

KC actually won TOP in the SB. 33:13 - 26:47 almost 7 minutes.

 

49ers led by 10pts until 6 minutes left in the game. 

 

They also gave up 100yds to D Williams. Stopping the run was the second part of that formula I was talking about.

 

When playing a high flying opponent. TOP is definitely the formula you want to go with. Keep them off the field as much as possible.

 

SF wasn't able to win the TOP like they wanted to, and were still in position to win the SB. I agree they need more balance. Saying that I believe the Colts will have great balance when needed.

 

They choked down the stretch.

 

If we want to beat KC, we better win the TOP. That's all I know. TOP is the winning recipe when playing high flying teams. That doesn't mean you have to pound the ball to control the clock. Rivers is actually one of the best at using up the clock, even while running a balance O.

 

Really wasn't even any reason to clap back in the first place though. I was just making a simple point, as to why we could still get there if we have to go on the road.

[Thunderbolt]

We have to hope our defense stays solid, not giving up big plays.  Our offense will hold their own with our offensive firepower.  Then, we'll be in the Big Dance.  Go Colts.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, not to sure what he is talking about.

 

Thread literally about 2 teams making the SB.

 

He gives his reason for wanting HFA, because he is afraid of going on the road.

 

I give a reason why I think we travel well and can still get there.

 

He brings up a team that:

1. Made the SB(using our style)

2. Had HFA and didn't play a road game.(his biggest worry)

3.SB is neutral location, both teams travel(when they lost)

 

Idk?

TOP is overrated. KC was 19th, and TN was 27th. KC was also 26th vs the run and TN is middle of the road.

 

I'd also point out that Balt is #1 in TOP, and #5 best vs the run (the team that was arguably the best combination of the two), and lost at home to a team that was 27th in TOP and middle of the road vs the run. 

 

Point is, you need balance. Also, you say "our style"... We were middle of the road in TOP last year (15th), and likely only that high because we totally changed our style because we had a poor and limited QB. We were 23rd in 2018 with Luck, and I'd assume we're going to be somewhere in the range of 15-20th this year wit.h Rivers.

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, w87r said:

KC actually won TOP in the SB. 33:13 - 26:47 almost 7 minutes.

 

49ers led by 10pts until 6 minutes left in the game. 

 

They also gave up 100yds to D Williams. Stopping the run was the second part of that formula I was talking about.

you just proved my point. A team that didn't have a TOP style or run stuffing style all year, beat a team and won time of possession against a team that did have the style of winning TOP and stopping the run.

Quote

 

When playing a high flying opponent. TOP is definitely the formula you want to go with. Keep them off the field as much as possible.

Absolutely, but a team that did it all year (SF), couldn't do it vs KC. They also lost TOP vs several of the good teams they played (their schedule wasn't all that great).

Quote

 

SF wasn't able to win the TOP like they wanted to, and were still in position to win the SB. I agree they need more balance. Saying that I believe the Colts will have great balance when needed.

 

They choked down the stretch.

They couldn't throw it when they needed.

Quote

 

If we want to beat KC, we better win the TOP. That's all I know. TOP is the winning recipe when playing high flying teams. That doesn't mean you have to pound the ball to control the clock. Rivers is actually one of the best at using up the clock, even while running a balance O.

 

Really wasn't even any reason to clap back in the first place though. I was just making a simple point, as to why we could still get there if we have to go on the road.

I'm all for winning the TOP, but it's not always needed to be a winning team. Like I said in the other post, KC was not good all year at TOP. They just happened to do it vs SF.

 

IMO, we need HFA. Beating a team like KC or Balt on the road (for many reasons) is a tall order. I like our chances against an NFC team on a neutral field.

[w87r]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Also, you say "our style"

I didnt put the style I expect us to play, like I did in my initial response.

 

Didn't think I needed to put all that again

1 hour ago, w87r said:

Good thing about our team. The way I'm expecting us to play, dominate TOP and stop the run, travels well.

 

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd also point out that Balt is #1 in TOP, and #5 best vs the run (the team that was arguably the best combination of the two),

This supports my point. They had the best record in the league, while having the combo.

 

They ran into Derrick Henry, they sure weren't stopping the run that day. Gave up 217 yards. Did win TOP though somehow? 

 

Again, not sure why you want to argue about it. Guess its just one of those days for me.

 

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

you just proved my point. A team that didn't have a TOP style or run stuffing style all year, beat a team and won time of possession that did have the style of winning TOP and stopping the run.

The only thing that proved is KC won the TOP and stopped the run better that day. Which was in fact the "winning formula". Whichever team did it all year doesnt matter. It is what won the game that day.

 

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

They couldn't throw it when they needed.

they clearly choked. I think we have a more balanced attack that can at the same time control the TOP.

 

7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

IMO, we need HFA. Beating a team like KC or Balt on the road (for many reasons) is a tall order. I like our chances against an NFC team on a neutral field.

 

Here's to that. I will be rooting for the same thing my fellow Colts fan.

 

Thanks for the interaction

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

I didnt put the style I expect us to play, like I did in my initial response.

 

Didn't think I needed to put all that again

 

This supports my point. They had the best record in the league, while having the combo.

 

They ran into Derrick Henry, they sure weren't stopping the run that day. Gave up 217 yards. Did win TOP though somehow? 

 

Again, not sure why you want to argue about it. Guess its just one of those days for me.

 

The only thing that proved is KC won the TOP and stopped the run better that day. Which was in fact the "winning formula". Whichever team did it all year doesnt matter. It is what won the game that day.

 

they clearly choked. I think we have a more balanced attack that can at the same time control the TOP.

 

 

Here's to that. I will be rooting for the same thing my fellow Colts fan.

 

Thanks for the interaction

Not trying to be a butthead. I just think TOP is overrated. A team like KC who won all year without winning TOP (because of quick strike O) can win TOP when they need to even though it's not their style. To me, it's simply about scoring (fast or slow), but more importantly, moving the chains. And you have to be able to do it by both running and passing. Personally, I like having a quick strike team in the 1st half, and then punishing run game killing TOP the 2nd half while we're up a couple TDs.

 

I'd also point out it has a lot to do with matchups.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Prediction, yes prediction 

[w87r]

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Not trying to be a butthead. I just think TOP is overrated. A team like KC who won all year without winning TOP (because of quick strike O) can win TOP when they need to even though it's not their style. To me, it's simply about scoring (fast or slow), but more importantly, moving the chains. And you have to be able to do it by both running and passing. Personally, I like having a quick strike team in the 1st half, and then punishing run game killing TOP the 2nd half while we're up a couple TDs.

 

I'd also point out it has a lot to do with matchups.

It's all good. I think we want the same result.

 

I agree your offense needs to be balanced and be able to attack both running and passing.(SF was to 1 dimensional) I anticipate being able to do both very well. Chargers were 12th in TOP despite the fact they really didnt have much of a running game. That is because Rivers is great at using up the clock. Even in no huddle situations, he rushes to the line but still uses most of the play clock.

 

But if we play KC and they win TOP and are able to run on us, we are screwed because you know the pass game is going to be doing something. 

 

Have to stop the run and keep them off the field as much as possible.

 

There is always a chance that on that given day it might not be enough, but I like the chances better the other way.

[w87r]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Personally, I like having a quick strike team in the 1st half, and then punishing run game killing TOP the 2nd half while we're up a couple TDs.

I like this plan as well.

[RollerColt]

Not sure about the Bucs to be honest. On paper they’re legit. Got plenty of offensive weapons and a decent defense. But I feel this coming season is the Saints to lose.

 

In fact, I’m gonna go ahead and say Colts vs. Saints. Rematch from 2009 and Rivers vs. Brees. What a story that would be!

[2006Coltsbestever]

I think AFC Title Game will be Colts at Ravens, NFC Title Game Bucs at Seahawks. Talk about different. Repeating is tough so Chiefs won't do it IMO. Not sure on the SB yet.

[EastStreet]

33 minutes ago, w87r said:

It's all good. I think we want the same result.

 

I agree your offense needs to be balanced and be able to attack both running and passing.(SF was to 1 dimensional) I anticipate being able to do both very well. Chargers were 12th in TOP despite the fact they really didnt have much of a running game. That is because Rivers is great at using up the clock. Even in no huddle situations, he rushes to the line but still uses most of the play clock.

 

But if we play KC and they win TOP and are able to run on us, we are screwed because you know the pass game is going to be doing something. 

 

Have to stop the run and keep them off the field as much as possible.

 

There is always a chance that on that given day it might not be enough, but I like the chances better the other way.

I just want to be top 10 in passing and rushing (top 5 total O), and top 10 vs the run, and top 15 vs the pass (top 10 total D). If we can do all that, I like our chances. Well rounded to me is the key. 

 

IMO, our pass D needs to improve a bunch if we want to improve our TOP. Our soft zone bend don't break, bent way to much last year. Can't continue to play that far off the LOS>

[w87r]

38 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think AFC Title Game will be Colts at Ravens, NFC Title Game Bucs at Seahawks. Talk about different. Repeating is tough so Chiefs won't do it IMO. Not sure on the SB yet.

I went with:

Colts vs Chiefs 

+

Vikings vs Saints

 

In the postseason thread, I think? 

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, w87r said:

KC actually won TOP in the SB. 33:13 - 26:47 almost 7 minutes.

 

49ers led by 10pts until 6 minutes left in the game. 

 

They also gave up 100yds to D Williams. Stopping the run was the second part of that formula I was talking about.

 

When playing a high flying opponent. TOP is definitely the formula you want to go with. Keep them off the field as much as possible.

 

SF wasn't able to win the TOP like they wanted to, and were still in position to win the SB. I agree they need more balance. Saying that I believe the Colts will have great balance when needed.

 

They choked down the stretch.

 

If we want to beat KC, we better win the TOP. That's all I know. TOP is the winning recipe when playing high flying teams. That doesn't mean you have to pound the ball to control the clock. Rivers is actually one of the best at using up the clock, even while running a balance O.

 

Really wasn't even any reason to clap back in the first place though. I was just making a simple point, as to why we could still get there if we have to go on the road.

No need to scheme against a high-flying team...just be the high-flying team.

[shasta519]

49 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I just want to be top 10 in passing and rushing (top 5 total O), and top 10 vs the run, and top 15 vs the pass (top 10 total D). If we can do all that, I like our chances. Well rounded to me is the key. 

 

IMO, our pass D needs to improve a bunch if we want to improve our TOP. Our soft zone bend don't break, bent way to much last year. Can't continue to play that far off the LOS>

Haha...just? A team like that is easily one of the top 2-3 overall teams in the NFL...a SB favorite heading into the playoffs.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Not trying to be a butthead. I just think TOP is overrated. A team like KC who won all year without winning TOP (because of quick strike O) can win TOP when they need to even though it's not their style. To me, it's simply about scoring (fast or slow), but more importantly, moving the chains. And you have to be able to do it by both running and passing. Personally, I like having a quick strike team in the 1st half, and then punishing run game killing TOP the 2nd half while we're up a couple TDs.

 

I'd also point out it has a lot to do with matchups.

It’s all about explosive plays. That was basically the stated offseason goal of the offense...more explosive plays. They don’t want to grind out games with TOP. That’s not to say they won’t be run heavy with a lead at times...but they are going to try to put points on the board often. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

28 minutes ago, w87r said:

I went with:

Colts vs Chiefs 

+

Vikings vs Saints

 

In the postseason thread, I think? 

Actually I think I may have went Vikings  . I love the Vikings this year, Captain Kirk , this flip flopping I do

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

Haha...just? A team like that is easily one of the top 2-3 overall teams in the NFL...a SB favorite heading into the playoffs.

Well, we already check two of those boxes last year. We were 7th rushing, and 7th against the run. Rivers, even with his horrible OL, was 6th in passing. So that's a realistic 3 out of 4 already......

 

So the pass D is the only outlier.... I said we need to be top 15 vs the pass. We were 23rd last year and had almost zero pass rush and a good amount of injury to our DBs. In 2018, we were only one off at 16th and didn't have the best pass rush either. We've added Buckner, so that should buy us a couple ticks up. If we have good health, Hooker returns to form, and Rhodes rebounds, top 15 is not so crazy.

 

Very doable IMO

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

It’s all about explosive plays. That was basically the stated offseason goal of the offense...more explosive plays. They don’t want to grind out games with TOP. That’s not to say they won’t be run heavy with a lead at times...but they are going to try to put points on the board often. 

YUP

 

Like I said above. I want to be explosive and score quickly in the 1st half, and punish teams with the run in the 2nd.

[shasta519]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Well, we already check two of those boxes last year. We were 7th rushing, and 7th against the run. Rivers, even with his horrible OL, was 6th in passing. So that's a realistic 3 out of 4 already......

 

So the pass D is the only outlier.... I said we need to be top 15 vs the pass. We were 23rd last year and had almost zero pass rush and a good amount of injury to our DBs. In 2018, we were only one off at 16th and didn't have the best pass rush either. We've added Buckner, so that should buy us a couple ticks up. If we have good health, Hooker returns to form, and Rhodes rebounds, top 15 is not so crazy.

 

Very doable IMO

DVOA puts both the run and pass defense at #19. The only top 10 unit was rush offense.

 

They could certainly improve like that...but a top 10 defense with a top 5 offense is a Super Bowl team. 
 

 

[EastStreet]

41 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

DVOA puts both the run and pass defense at #19. The only top 10 unit was rush offense.

 

They could certainly improve like that...but a top 10 defense with a top 5 offense is a Super Bowl team. 

Take DVOA with a grain of salt. As far as rush D goes....

We gave up the 3rd least rushing TDs

We gave up the 7th least amount of rushing yards.

We were 11th best against rushing 1st downs (we were horrible passing 1st downs). 

 

Please let me know how that translates to 19th in DVOA...

 

Rivers was top 10 in both yards and DVOA passing.... 

 

So again, IMO, it'll be all about pass D... And our new O will actually help with that, as much, or more than adding Buckner.

[shasta519]

12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Take DVOA with a grain of salt. As far as rush D goes....

We gave up the 3rd least rushing TDs

We gave up the 7th least amount of rushing yards.

We were 11th best against rushing 1st downs (we were horrible passing 1st downs). 

 

Please let me know how that translates to 19th in DVOA...

 

Rivers was top 10 in both yards and DVOA passing.... 

 

So again, IMO, it'll be all about pass D... And our new O will actually help with that, as much, or more than adding Buckner.

 

The way I understand it...DVOA just looks at success of each individual play vs what an average team would do in that scenario...and creates an index. The Colts were one of the least rushed against teams in the NFL last year...so right away...we can't really look at net yardage and TDs. 

 

There was also some adjustment for schedule as well. So if I had to guess why the rush defense indexed lower than half the league...it was because of a schedule adjustment and because of 3rd down conversion rate...which was 6th worst in the NFL. A good number of those 3rd down conversions were likely runs...which have stronger weight than other run plays.

 

The overall rushing 1st downs were 11th fewest...but the rush attempts were the 6th fewest. So they probably under-indexed in this area.

 

But even at #19, the Colts were still above an average run defense...it just so happens that 3/4 of the league was as well. Using the eye test...#19 is probably too high...they are likely in that #10-15 range.

[EastStreet]

18 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

The way I understand it...DVOA just looks at success of each individual play vs what an average team would do in that scenario...and creates an index. The Colts were one of the least rushed against teams in the NFL last year...so right away...we can't really look at net yardage and TDs. 

 

There was also some adjustment for schedule as well. So if I had to guess why the rush defense indexed lower than half the league...it was because of a schedule adjustment and because of 3rd down conversion rate...which was 6th worst in the NFL. A good number of those 3rd down conversions were likely runs...which have stronger weight than other run plays.

 

The overall rushing 1st downs were 11th fewest...but the rush attempts were the 6th fewest. So they probably under-indexed in this area.

 

But even at #19, the Colts were still above an average run defense...it just so happens that 3/4 of the league was as well. Using the eye test...#19 is probably too high...they are likely in that #10-15 range.

I look at AVG honestly most of all. The Colts were top 10 in AVG (lowest average gain per rush).

 

I'm familiar with what DVOA is, and follow FO frequently. I'd point out that they ranked the Colts 4th in rush D DVOA in 2018, while rating the pass D 20th. 

 

In 2019, given our anemic O, soft zone D, and success against the run (both past and present), why wouldn't everyone throw more against us lol... 

 

In short, rationally, you don't go from 4th to 19th in a year without substantial injury or personnel turnover. We only fell from 6th to 9th in AVG from 2018 to 2019. This is why I say take it with a grain of salt.

[Fluke_33]

On 5/31/2020 at 4:59 PM, DEFENSE said:

colts vs tampa bay in super bowl!!!!! thoughts?

I love Arians making it but hate Brady making it. As long as colts are there(and win). I’d be stoked!

[AZColt11]

0-16!