Contract extension thoughts

[DoubleE Colt]

As we know the Colts have a great deal of players becoming free agents at the end of this season.....are there any that you think Ballard will extend this off-season realistically? The obvious one that jumps out to me I guess is Ryan Kelly....would be nice to secure him long-term as the o line is such a strength and it probably wouldn't cost much more on his cap hit this year which is £10 mill. 

[Myles]

 

It's quite a list.  I could only post a screenshot of half of them.

I wonder how they feel about Mo Cox?  It seems he could be looking at his best career season.   If they are sold on him, they could extend him cheap instead of waiting till his value rises.  

Hilton, Houston, Autry, Rohodes, Kelly, Day and Clark could be key pieces.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2021/all/indianapolis-colts/

 

[CheezyColt]

I still believe this year is kind of a one-off all in kind of deal. I could see us making a playoff run, potentially developing into outside SB contenders... but after the season we let most of these 1 year deal additions walk and try to rake in 2022 comp picks for when Eason or a QB-to-be-named-later takes over. Resigning our core pieces over the next 2 offseasons will take a very good chunk of cap space and it just looks like, to me, a good time to try and load up on future picks while maintaining the young core.

 

I'm sure I'm missing something that drags this theory to the ground, but it just makes sense to me.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Kelly and Walker. I still don’t put it past Mack getting one. He isn’t going to get what everyone thinks in the open market.

[stitches]

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

[Myles]

5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Kelly and Walker. I still don’t put it past Mack getting one. He isn’t going to get what everyone thinks in the open market.

Yeah, but taking up cap space with Mac, while having Taylor on the roster seems inefficient.   Probably would have to be around $5 million per season.   Wilkin is good through 2022 and is only set to make $241,000 in 2021 ans 2022.  Not saying he's the caliber of Mack, but the value is there.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

19 minutes ago, Myles said:

Yeah, but taking up cap space with Mac, while having Taylor on the roster seems inefficient.   Probably would have to be around $5 million per season.   Wilkin is good through 2022 and is only set to make $241,000 in 2021 ans 2022.  Not saying he's the caliber of Mack, but the value is there.

We are projected to have 123 million in cap space next year. If Mack has a good injury free season and the two heads monster is effective I don’t see why they wouldn’t pay him 6 million a year.  Wilkins is good but if Taylor goes down we lose our running game punch.  There is a lot of value to having both Mack and Taylor. Not even sure Wilkins makes the team this year.

[Myles]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

We are projected to have 123 million in cap space next year. If Mack has a good injury free season and the two heads monster is effective I don’t see why they wouldn’t pay him 6 million a year.  Wilkins is good but if Taylor goes down we lose our running game punch.  There is a lot of value to having both Mack and Taylor. Not even sure Wilkins makes the team this year.

I think some of that cap will be used in front loading contracts for Nelson, Leonard and Smith.  

I'm not against keeping Mack because I like him, it's just that I would prefer to only use RB's on rookie contracts and spend the cash someplace else.  

[Shive]

43 minutes ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

I think it'll all come down to his health this season. If he plays well (as he has) and stays healthy, I don't see why they wouldn't try to resign him (at a reasonable price).

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Shive said:

I think it'll all come down to his health this season. If he plays well (as he has) and stays healthy, I don't see why they wouldn't try to resign him (at a reasonable price).

The thing is... what is a reasonable price? OLinemen are starting to get paid serious money nowadays. Most new center contracts are over 10-11M... 

[Superman]

52 minutes ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

 

Reich has heaped praise on Kelly, calling him the best center in the league. Hyperbole, for sure, but the new regime likes him. If he stays healthy this year, I definitely value him over Smith or Glowinski. 

[stitches]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Reich has heaped praise on Kelly, calling him the best center in the league. Hyperbole, for sure, but the new regime likes him. If he stays healthy this year, I definitely value him over Smith or Glowinski. 

Meh, Reich said they "expect big things from Hooker" 2 hours before they refused his option. I will take with a grain of salt whatever Reich is saying on his players. It's only natural for him to praise his players. 

 

I value Smith more than Kelly. But I agree on Glowinski. 

[NewColtsFan]

55 minutes ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

For what it’s worth.....
 

Ballard has already publicly said the Colts plan to pick up the 5th year option. 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth.....
 

Ballard has already publicly said the Colts plan to pick up the 5th year option. 

They have already picked that option. The 5th year option is picked the year before it comes into effect. He will be playing on his 5th year option this year. The question is do they extend him now? Or let him play on that option? And then whether they let him walk or give him a new contract? 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

Kelly is one of the best centers in the league. Are you crazy.  Ballard values trenches so much I can see him putting the money into the oline.

[DoubleE Colt]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

Nelson and Smith are on their rookie contracts for at least the next few years and this coincides with the end of AC contract and I really can't see him playing on after this I think he'll retire most probably and this will leave that 17 mill or so Oline money free and possibly Glow will be replaced then too as I think he's probably the weakest in that group. In short if they want to tie Kelly down along with Nelson and Smith in a few years I can't see there being an issue. Also after next year our QB room won't be as expensive one way or another and likely won't be as high as it is now for years to come so there plenty of wiggle room. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

36 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think some of that cap will be used in front loading contracts for Nelson, Leonard and Smith.  

I'm not against keeping Mack because I like him, it's just that I would prefer to only use RB's on rookie contracts and spend the cash someplace else.  

We have a while on Nelson because he was a first round pick. Leonard and smith though are both going to need knew contracts at the same time. Maybe one gets done after this year and they let the other wait until the following year so they can front load both.

[NewColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, stitches said:

They have already picked that option. The 5th year option is picked the year before it comes into effect. He will be playing on his 5th year option this year. The question is do they extend him now? Or let him play on that option? And then whether they let him walk or give him a new contract? 

Thanks for the correction.   I don’t know when the team will extend him? But I’d guess later rather than sooner to protect themselves against a bad injury. 
 

But baring anything unforeseen, I’d be stunned if we didn’t eventually extend him.  Well run organizations keep good players, even if they were drafted by a different GM.   Badly run organizations cut players simply because another GM drafted them.

 

Its one thing if a new regime comes in and they run a new system and the player is no longer a scheme fit.  That happens.   But Kelly fits what we do.  His salary is the cost of doing business. You can’t build a top-5 OL that drives your offense and then not re-sign a player because he gets pricey.  It’s counter-productive.  
 

Other than injury, I’d be beyond stunned stunned if Kelly is not re-signed. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, DoubleE Colt said:

Nelson and Smith are on their rookie contracts for at least the next few years and this coincides with the end of AC contract and I really can't see him playing on after this I think he'll retire most probably and this will leave that 17 mill or so Oline money free and possibly Glow will be replaced then too as I think he's probably the weakest in that group. In short if they want to tie Kelly down along with Nelson and Smith in a few years I can't see there being an issue. Also after next year our QB room won't be as expensive one way or another and likely won't be as high as it is now for years to come so there plenty of wiggle room. 

Smith has two more years like Leonard. We get the extra fifth year with Nelson. I could see them doing smith or Leonard after their third year then doing the other after they finish that fourth year to front load things.

 

This is why we need a QB actually playing on a rookie contract. Instead of paying a vet 25 million. We will lose rivers and Brissett big contracts here eventually. That will free up a ton of money. Don’t forget AC contact will be gone in a couple also with most likely a rookie contract on the oline. We will have plenty of money.

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Kelly is one of the best centers in the league. Are you crazy.  Ballard values trenches so much I can see him putting the money into the oline.

I don't really disagree, he's one of the better cerners in the league, but we will still have to pick and choose who to sign and who to let go as more and more players become extension eligible. Both Braden and Quenton become extension eligible after this year(if I'm not mistaken). AC is the highest paid OT in the league. It's possible Ballard just decides to let Kelly go and replace him with a much cheaper option from the draft.  

[Myles]

1 unknown his how Ballard really feels about cap space.   So far he has made it a point to stay well under the cap.  He may be doing it to make sure he can sign Colts players, but maybe he just really values the cushion.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't really disagree, he's one of the better cerners in the league, but we will still have to pick and choose who to sign and who to let go as more and more players become extension eligible. Both Braden and Quenton become extension eligible after this year(if I'm not mistaken). AC is the highest paid OT in the league. It's possible Ballard just decides to let Kelly go and replace him with a much cheaper option from the draft.  

AC is going to retire here within the next two to three years. His contract will eventually be replaced by a rookie contract. I think we are fine. Not to mention 45 million eventually off the books for the big rivers and Brissett contracts. We need to get a young QB ready to start as soon as possible so we don’t have to pay a vet QB. We have the fifth year on Nelson so he can be delayed a little bit.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

 

  Gonna be interesting to see if Ballard does the Belichek thing and let several higher priced FA's hit the market at the same time to get back those 3rd and 4th rd comp picks. When you feel very strongly about your vetting of prospects, those higher comp picks have to sound really good.
 Pinter will be worked at center too i bet. That is an interesting young man.

[Myles]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't really disagree, he's one of the better cerners in the league, but we will still have to pick and choose who to sign and who to let go as more and more players become extension eligible. Both Braden and Quenton become extension eligible after this year(if I'm not mistaken). AC is the highest paid OT in the league. It's possible Ballard just decides to let Kelly go and replace him with a much cheaper option from the draft.  

I agree except that Nelson has the extra year since he was a first round pick.   Chloe corrected me on that earlier in this thread.  

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  Gonna be interesting to see if Ballard does the Belichek thing and let several higher priced FA's hit the market at the same time to get back those 3rd and 4th rd comp picks. When you feel very strongly about your vetting of prospects, those higher comp picks have to sound really good.
 Pinter will be worked at center too i bet. That is an interesting young man.

IMO this is exactly what he's doing this year. Just take a look at all the players in last year of their contract right now. There are a ton of them. Not sure anyone will get contract big enough for a 3d round comp pick, but I bet there will be several 4th and 5th round comp picks on the books for 2022. 

 

Brissett

Rivers

TY Hilton

Justin Houston

Denico Autry

Malik Hooker

Ryan Kelly

Xavier Rhodes

Marlon Mack

Grover Steward

Anthony Walker

Sheldon Day

Al-Quadin Muhammad

George Odum

Mo Alie-Cox

Zach Pascal

Le'Raven Clark

Trey Burton

Roosevelt Nix

TJ Carrie

Rolan Milligan

Chad Kelly

 

Just look at that list. There are like... 11-12 starters here with expiring contracts. Not all of them will leave but IMO enough will that we will get some comp picks. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

They can also do Braden and Leonard in separate years. Get Leonard extended after his third year. Then let Braden finish his contract and extend him after his fourth. That should help some with bonuses ect and having parts of the cap hit in different years.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

IMO this is exactly what he's doing this year. Just take a look at all the players in last year of their contract right now. There are a ton of them. Not sure anyone will get contract big enough for a 3d round comp pick, but I bet there will be several 4th and 5th round comp picks on the books for 2022. 

I think a lot of the one year contracts we signed this year will eventually be replaced by draft picks. I don’t think he will be looking to replace guys like Kelly. When you have pride in your oline you try and keep them together. We can do them all at different times to help. Getting a young QB starting so we don’t need a vet will also help. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I would say Glow is the one that could get replaced if they want to save money on the oline.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Ballard is not BB either. I think BB is awful how he treats players. Ballard will reward his own. 

[richard pallo]

Ryan Kelly is the obvious one to me.  He resigned AC and next up should be Kelly.  They picked up his option so they clearly value him long term.  Considering his cap hit is already 10M this is really a great time to do a new contract and not hurt our current cap space materially.  

[Myles]

14 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Ballard is not BB either. I think BB is awful how he treats players. Ballard will reward his own. 

That's true, but he'll still have to pick and choose.  

I think we would need to guess on how much each of the free agents would cost and the cap space that is affected.  

Currently here is how I feel about these players.  Some of the "want him back" responses means if a decent deal can be reached. 

 

Brissett - Bye bye

Rivers - Might need/want for another year

TY Hilton - Want him back

Justin Houston - Want him back

Denico Autry - Want him back

Malik Hooker - Will be gone

Ryan Kelly - Want him back

Xavier Rhodes - Not sure

Marlon Mack - He'll be gone

Grover Steward - Not sure

Anthony Walker - Want him back

Sheldon Day - Want him back

Al-Quadin Muhammad - Not sure

George Odum - Not sure

Mo Alie-Cox - Want him back

Zach Pascal - Want him back

Le'Raven Clark - Want him back

Trey Burton - Not sure

Roosevelt Nix - Not sure

TJ Carrie - Not sure

Rolan Milligan - Not sure

Chad Kelly - Not sure

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Kelly is a remnant from the previous regime, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if they just let him walk after this year. There is just so much resources you can pour into the OLine. AC is expensive, Quenton and Braden will be expensive soon enough, I can see a situation where they let him walk for the compensatory pick and trying to find replacement in the draft. 

 

I fully had expected them to draft Cush when he was there. 

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I fully had expected them to draft Cush when he was there. 

Someone mentioned Pinter above. It's an interesting discussion. I wonder if they try him at C(because of short arms). I think Ballard mentioned him being possible C. He has some great athletic traits and he can learn behind Kelly for a year and if he looks good in practice they might decide to give him the starting spot and save the money.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

Someone mentioned Pinter above. It's an interesting discussion. I wonder if they try him at C(because of short arms). I think Ballard mentioned him being possible C. He has some great athletic traits and he can learn behind Kelly for a year and if he looks good in practice they might decide to give him the starting spot and save the money.

Or he could be the replacement for Glow. Ballard said center guard.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

29 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Ryan Kelly is the obvious one to me.  He resigned AC and next up should be Kelly.  They picked up his option so they clearly value him long term.  Considering his cap hit is already 10M this is really a great time to do a new contract and not hurt our current cap space materially.  

This is a great point. His contract won’t even be more of a cap hit then it is now. So it doesn’t even really figure in that much.

[Four2itus]

The only thing that would keep Kelly from being re-signed, is injury.

[shasta519]

The "keep your own" approach is more platitude than practical...how do you think the Colts ended up with Buckner? 

 

And once Ballard decided to get and pay Buckner...the need for prudence ratcheted up even more.

 

Because unless Buckner is released two years into his deal...Ballard is going to have ~$60M tied up into THREE players very soon...Buckner, Nelson and Leonard. And that doesn't factor into having to pay a QB.

 

So he will have to be very selective about how he proceeds...and guys like Mack, Walker, Hooker, even Kelly...have to be weighed heavily.

 

 

[CR91]

I made a note that 2021 would be a busy off-season for the colts, however with over 120 mil in cap next year, the colts could easily bring back everyone they want.

[shasta519]

25 minutes ago, stitches said:

Someone mentioned Pinter above. It's an interesting discussion. I wonder if they try him at C(because of short arms). I think Ballard mentioned him being possible C. He has some great athletic traits and he can learn behind Kelly for a year and if he looks good in practice they might decide to give him the starting spot and save the money.

 

That could be an option...although he is probably at least a year (if not more) away from even learning the position...let alone playing it at the NFL level. 

 

I do think Ballard will look to be more efficient on the OL. Whether that's Kelly or Smith...it's going to be very difficult to keep all of them together...with Nelson likely being one of the highest paid OL players in the NFL...not to mention having to replace AC eventually.

[shasta519]

Just now, CR91 said:

I made a note that 2021 would be a busy off-season for the colts, however with over 120 mil in cap next year, the colts could easily bring back everyone they want.

 

They really can't though...unless everyone they want is a couple of guys. That cap space will go very fast if they start extending a bunch of players. 

 

I think we might see Ballard follow the BAL and NE models of letting guys walk and collecting comp picks...or potentially trade them if the value is there.