The Herd with Ballard & General Thoughts

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I understand that some positions aren't high priority in this defense. But I don't think good/great players are disposable at any position. There's a cost/benefit analysis to be made, and while a big part of that is based on the importance of the position, an even bigger element is how good the player is. Look at Leonard's physical/athletic profile, and look at his rare statistical production. He's not just 'a linebacker.' He's pretty freakin' good.

 

I wouldn't draft a CB or a NT in the first round for this defense. Maybe not a LB. That doesn't mean that if you draft and develop a really good player, that you shouldn't give him a good second contract.

 

(Side point: I'm not sure we've seen what "this defense" actually is yet. Everyone is assuming they want to be the old Tampa defense, but I think there are other flavors they're going to bring out as they get more of their guys in place. Matter of fact, basically every corner they've added seems like more of a man corner than a zone corner.)

 

And it seems like you're really hung up on that $20m/year figure. What if it's more like $16-17m/year? Are we good then? Because the effective average of a "$20m/year" new money deal for Leonard will be more like $16.5m/year, if it's done a year early ($80m over four years, but through 2025; $82.3m over five years, adding in the last year of his rookie deal). And that's like 7.5% of the expected salary cap in 2021. 

 

When Brian Urlacher signed his big deal with the Bears in 2008, it came out to 7.5% of the cap. When Derrick Brooks signed his big deal with the Bucks in 2000, it was 8-9% of the cap. Lavonte David's contract signed in 2015 was about 7% of the cap. All Dungy defense LBs.

 

Also, there's a strong possibility that the cap shoots way up in 2021. Early report were $240m. With the pandemic, maybe that gets delayed until 2022, depending on revenue. And new TV/streaming deals are coming up, so the cap will continue to rise dramatically.  This $16-17m/year might be 7-8% of the cap in the first year or two of the deal. For a foundational player who will be 26 years old, still in the height of his prime. If you can't figure out the other 92% of the cap because you have a highly paid and highly productive LB in a Tampa 2 defense, you have bigger issues than what you're paying the LB. 

 

Remember, I'm a big cap management, positional value, maximize resources kind of guy. I think I get where you're coming. But this is all just a long-winded way of me saying: 1) I don't know if you just set hard and fast rules about not paying players at specific positions, and 2) I think you're overstating the impact that "$20m/year" would actually have on the team in 2021 and beyond.

Good points. 

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I understand that some positions aren't high priority in this defense. But I don't think good/great players are disposable at any position. There's a cost/benefit analysis to be made, and while a big part of that is based on the importance of the position, an even bigger element is how good the player is. Look at Leonard's physical/athletic profile, and look at his rare statistical production. He's not just 'a linebacker.' He's pretty freakin' good.

 

I wouldn't draft a CB or a NT in the first round for this defense. Maybe not a LB. That doesn't mean that if you draft and develop a really good player, that you shouldn't give him a good second contract.

 

(Side point: I'm not sure we've seen what "this defense" actually is yet. Everyone is assuming they want to be the old Tampa defense, but I think there are other flavors they're going to bring out as they get more of their guys in place. Matter of fact, basically every corner they've added seems like more of a man corner than a zone corner.)

 

And it seems like you're really hung up on that $20m/year figure. What if it's more like $16-17m/year? Are we good then? Because the effective average of a "$20m/year" new money deal for Leonard will be more like $16.5m/year, if it's done a year early ($80m over four years, but through 2025; $82.3m over five years, adding in the last year of his rookie deal). And that's like 7.5% of the expected salary cap in 2021. 

 

When Brian Urlacher signed his big deal with the Bears in 2008, it came out to 7.5% of the cap. When Derrick Brooks signed his big deal with the Bucks in 2000, it was 8-9% of the cap. Lavonte David's contract signed in 2015 was about 7% of the cap. All Dungy defense LBs.

 

Also, there's a strong possibility that the cap shoots way up in 2021. Early report were $240m. With the pandemic, maybe that gets delayed until 2022, depending on revenue. And new TV/streaming deals are coming up, so the cap will continue to rise dramatically.  This $16-17m/year might be 7-8% of the cap in the first year or two of the deal. For a foundational player who will be 26 years old, still in the height of his prime. If you can't figure out the other 92% of the cap because you have a highly paid and highly productive LB in a Tampa 2 defense, you have bigger issues than what you're paying the LB. 

 

Remember, I'm a big cap management, positional value, maximize resources kind of guy. I think I get where you're coming. But this is all just a long-winded way of me saying: 1) I don't know if you just set hard and fast rules about not paying players at specific positions, and 2) I think you're overstating the impact that "$20m/year" would actually have on the team in 2021 and beyond.

Honest question. So u think that Leonard is in the class of Urlacher and Brooks? If not, do u think he has the skill set to eventually get there?

[crazycolt1]

14 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honest question. So u think that Leonard is in the class of Urlacher and Brooks? If not, do u think he has the skill set to eventually get there?

Brian Urlacher- 

   Rookie season- 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble and 98 solo tackles

   2nd season- 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles and 91 solo tackles

Derrick Brooks- 

   Rookie season-0 interceptions, 2 forced fumble and 60 solo tackles

   2nd season- 1 interception, 1 forced fumble and 92 solo tackles

Darius Leonard

   Rookie season-2 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles and 111 solo tackles

   2nd season- 5 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles and 71 solo tackles ( after missing three games) 

  

So the numbers show that the Maniac is better than Urlacher and Brooks were in their first two seasons.  

 

 

[Superman]

33 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honest question. So u think that Leonard is in the class of Urlacher and Brooks? If not, do u think he has the skill set to eventually get there?

 

I'm not projecting anyone to be a HOFer. I used those guys because of their status, just to point out that top notch LBers get paid in this defense. So if Leonard is "top notch," then I think the conversation needs to be about more than base positional value.

 

I think both were better tacklers than he is. For a guy that makes so many stops, he isn't an imposing tackler. He's less physical at the point of attack. I don't know how he'll hold up over the next couple of seasons. But he's faster and has more length than both of them. The game has changed, so everyone is faster, but Leonard stands out even among his peers. It's silly how many plays he gets in on, simply because of his range. His production has been insane.

 

So I don't know if he has to be a future HOFer to justify a top of market contract. But if he continues making plays like he has in his first two years, I think his status as a foundational player for the Colts will be well established.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

With Buckner here now Leonard is going to be even more free. He isn’t going to have to shed as many blocks.