Dak Prescott will get 35M+ IMO. This is not the eyebrow raising thing here. The eyebrow raiser is that Dallas will let him go. They won't. Unless his injury is really really REALLY bad and he's on the verge of retiring Dallas will 1. try to re-sign him or 2. if not able to re-sign him, they will franchise tag him. One thing I'm almost certain about is - they won't let him go for nothing. If you want him, you will have to pay and very likely more than you will have to pay for Stafford.
Well by those 3rd and 4th year he will be 35 and 36yrs old not sure I would be wanting to pay that much at that time. $25m sounds about right, maybe closer to $30m but wouldn't approach $36m, IMO.
$36m would be a top 3 QB contract right now. Might not be in 3yrs but still would be high IMO.
So, you don't think (say based on your example) $20 mil., $28 mil., $36 mil., $36 mil. for $120 mil. over 4 years (Colts portion) would be a fair market value with increasing QB contracts?? You still think we should be paying him the Rivers rate of $25 mil. even when the cap gets back to what it was after 2021, if I am reading your post right??