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2 hours ago, w87r said:

Colts have plenty of money to sign anyone they want right now.

 

JB contract is not prohibiting that at all.

 

They have came out and said they want to see what our young DE's can do. That is why we didn't bring in Clowney or Griffen, not because of Brissett's contract.

 

Again, if there was a player we wanted, we could sign them.

 

Cam Newton is so cheap, and didn't get offered a contract earlier, because he couldn't come in for a physical and most likely was wanting $20m+ when he was released.

Nobody can definitely say we have  the money to sign anyone we want. Yes, there is a standard salary cap, but teams model their needs years out, and ofteplan to carry over for the coming years. We have some rook contracts coming up that won't be cheap. We have some key positions that will be FAs or perhaps retiring that will require new, and likely expensive FAs (the draft won't cover them all). Take a look at the below. We aren't really that rich given what's expiring over the next two years.

 

We have 108 for next year.

 

Rivers - could be 30 of next year's cap (taking it 78) if he does well.

 

Hilton - FA next year, so could be an extension (would be 15ish if he has a good year and we extend, taking it 63).

 

Houston - FA next year. If he plays well this year, we could see a short term extension for 13ish (now 50). 

 

Autry - should see a decent amount of snaps in both DE and DT this year. We don't have another flex player like him except maybe Lewis, who hasn't shown anything. He's making 6 now, and I can't see him taking much less (now 43).

 

Day and Stewart are both FAs next year, so our entire 2 deep at NT is up extension or replacement. Let's assume we spend at least 3M at DT. (now 40).

 

Hooker - If he bounces back, he'll likely command 10M. (now 30). Odum is also a FA and is 2nd depth.

 

Rhodes is a FA - We'll spend at least 3M on him or another CB to start (unless Rogers comes on strong).

 

Kelly is a FA - He'll command top 5 pay, so there's another 11 or 12M. (now 18).

 

Mack, Walker, Burton, MAC, Pascal, as well as others are all FAs too. 

 

That's just 2021. In 2022 Nelson, AC, Braden Smith, Glow are all up for contracts. Yes, 4 of our 5 OL. Nelson will set the market for OGs (between 15-20M). Smith will command a decent amount, at least 10M imo. Then we either have to replace or resign AC. Then add in Leonard who will likely get 20ishM. Turay is up to, and could be expensive if he emerges this year. If not, we'll need to pay someone regardless. And Hines is up too.

 

Again, we really don't have a lot of spare $$. Let's hope some of the draft picks really come on.

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19 hours ago, EastStreet said:

LOL, I'll never lose sleep over anything football. I sleep like a baby. Just saying, financially it's a negative that can preclude us from improving in other areas of obvious need. If you don't care about improving the roster, or at minimum having increased carryover for future contracts, OK. 

The Colts are still under the cap and they are not signing other players. 

The money they are paying JB is not stopping them.  The amount they gave JB was too much, but it did not affect the team, just the owners pockets.  

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On 7/2/2020 at 10:00 AM, Myles said:

The Colts are still under the cap and they are not signing other players. 

The money they are paying JB is not stopping them.  The amount they gave JB was too much, but it did not affect the team, just the owners pockets.  

See post above. 

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11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

See post above. 

Do you think that without giving JB the $$ they did, they would have extended contracts this year instead of next?

I suppose it is possible.   

Or maybe you think that Irsay told Ballard that he did not want to get near the cap no matter what and Ballard was ordered to be $24,000 under the cap no matter what.  

 

I don't know.   I just seen it as using cap space that wasn't going to be used.   I still thought it was a bad move.  I wonder if it was a "good faith" move.   Thinking that if JB did as well as some thought he would, it would be easier to extend him if he was.  JB is a good level headed and loyal guy and I think he would have opted to sign a reasonable contract rather than play free agency.

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25 minutes ago, Myles said:

Do you think that without giving JB the $$ they did, they would have extended contracts this year instead of next?

I suppose it is possible.   

Or maybe you think that Irsay told Ballard that he did not want to get near the cap no matter what and Ballard was ordered to be $24,000 under the cap no matter what.  

 

I don't know.   I just seen it as using cap space that wasn't going to be used.   I still thought it was a bad move.  I wonder if it was a "good faith" move.   Thinking that if JB did as well as some thought he would, it would be easier to extend him if he was.  JB is a good level headed and loyal guy and I think he would have opted to sign a reasonable contract rather than play free agency.

It's not really only about using cap space that wasn't going to be used. A whole lot of things factor, and honestly we just don't know what the financial modelers have planned. Carryover is probably getting more and more important looking ahead. What we do know, is that 2021 and 2022 will be years of either costly extensions, and/or FA turnover (which will likely be costly). 

 

Having 4 of 5 of our starting OL come up on FA in 2021 is pretty scary lol. And 5 of 5 in 20 and 21. With 4 of those likely getting top 5 or 10 at their positions. That, and having only Eason and Kelly under contract next year lol. 

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25 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It's not really only about using cap space that wasn't going to be used. A whole lot of things factor, and honestly we just don't know what the financial modelers have planned. Carryover is probably getting more and more important looking ahead. What we do know, is that 2021 and 2022 will be years of either costly extensions, and/or FA turnover (which will likely be costly). 

 

Having 4 of 5 of our starting OL come up on FA in 2021 is pretty scary lol. And 5 of 5 in 20 and 21. With 4 of those likely getting top 5 or 10 at their positions. That, and having only Eason and Kelly under contract next year lol. 

Yeah.   The good drafting of Ballard will bite us in the butt soon.   Too many will demand (rightfully so) lots of cash and difficult decision will need to be made.   I think Smith will get offered top dollar by many teams, same with Nelson, Leonard and several others.   I'm fine with Eason and Kelly being the only QB's under contract next season.   Not much cash invested there.   Eason could prove to be a starter talent.   But either way, with only about a million in QB cap hit, the team could bring a veteran in or resign Rivers.   I think Kelly is a free agent after this season.

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4 minutes ago, Myles said:

Yeah.   The good drafting of Ballard will bite us in the butt soon.   Too many will demand (rightfully so) lots of cash and difficult decision will need to be made.   I think Smith will get offered top dollar by many teams, same with Nelson, Leonard and several others.   I'm fine with Eason and Kelly being the only QB's under contract next season.   Not much cash invested there.   Eason could prove to be a starter talent.   But either way, with only about a million in QB cap hit, the team could bring a veteran in or resign Rivers.   I think Kelly is a free agent after this season.

 

Yup, drafting well bites you, but I'll take it.

 

On OL, Q will set the market for $. Smith will be paid top 5 at RT. Kelly top 5 or better at C. We'll either spend a boatload convincing AC to stay longer, use high draft capital, or spend big in FA for LT. Glow is aging, so hoping Pinter develops over the next two years. If so, that could be at least one cheap guy. If not, another FA. Depth is still pretty scary. 

 

At QB, I'm not worried about having Kelly and Eason under contract, as they cost little. I'm worried about not having anyone else lol. If Rivers does well, he'll get 30M next year. And he doesn't, we'll be shopping again, perhaps for a guy like Carr. I don't see Eason being ready after one year, especially a year when we have JB under contract, and Eason simply won't get snaps after a shortened pre-season.

 

All the other guys are a tad bit concerning too. I know it's part of the game, but outside of Buckner, Doyle, and Rock, we have like zero proven guys under contract for more than 2 years. 

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On 6/30/2020 at 8:54 PM, NewColtsFan said:

The $1 million is the base salary.   Reportedly,  there are reachable incentives to $7.5 million. 
 

 

Yes , I know he can earn up to 7.5 million. But that probably means he would be the starter for at least half the year ?  That is insane pay .... either way it's horrible.

 What I said was "he MIGHT be paid 1 million per year." This contract is almost embarrassing as it's so much under market value. What even decent back up not on his rookie contract makes around a million ?  I read somewhere that covid really hurt him as he couldn't work out for teams. 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Yup, drafting well bites you, but I'll take it.

 

On OL, Q will set the market for $. Smith will be paid top 5 at RT. Kelly top 5 or better at C. We'll either spend a boatload convincing AC to stay longer, use high draft capital, or spend big in FA for LT. Glow is aging, so hoping Pinter develops over the next two years. If so, that could be at least one cheap guy. If not, another FA. Depth is still pretty scary. 

 

At QB, I'm not worried about having Kelly and Eason under contract, as they cost little. I'm worried about not having anyone else lol. If Rivers does well, he'll get 30M next year. And he doesn't, we'll be shopping again, perhaps for a guy like Carr. I don't see Eason being ready after one year, especially a year when we have JB under contract, and Eason simply won't get snaps after a shortened pre-season.

 

All the other guys are a tad bit concerning too. I know it's part of the game, but outside of Buckner, Doyle, and Rock, we have like zero proven guys under contract for more than 2 years. 

I guess it's a good problem.   So much talent that you cannot afford to keep it all.   We'll have to trust that Ballard can continue to draft/sign good talent.   Not sure what your thoughts on Moore are, but at least we have him for the next 4 years.   

 

I like Kelly, but I am not as much as a fan as most are.  I'd be fine if he was the one who we replaced as opposed to Nelson or Smith.  It would be horrible to lose him though.   

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2 hours ago, Myles said:

I guess it's a good problem.   So much talent that you cannot afford to keep it all.   We'll have to trust that Ballard can continue to draft/sign good talent.   Not sure what your thoughts on Moore are, but at least we have him for the next 4 years.   

 

I like Kelly, but I am not as much as a fan as most are.  I'd be fine if he was the one who we replaced as opposed to Nelson or Smith.  It would be horrible to lose him though.   

Good catch, I forgot about Moore. I love Moore. I think some might over hype him, but he's a top 5-10 NB without a doubt. And we play a whole lot of nickel.

 

I like Kelly, but I agree priorities should be Nelson, LT, Smith, Kelly, and RG. I know all the talk about Pinter is at RG, but I'd like to see him try C as well. I think he could play any of the interior within a year or two, and even T in a pinch.

 

And yes, it's better to have the problem, than not have it lol. It just seems like we have a very large amount of guys coming up. More than I can remember.

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NE got a bargain in Cam, more so than what we have in JB, something is wrong with this picture.  "1" Mil compare to 20 mil.  Yikes.

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1 hour ago, Thunderbolt said:

NE got a bargain in Cam, more so than what we have in JB, something is wrong with this picture.  "1" Mil compare to 20 mil.  Yikes.

The value is pretty incredible. Would anyone really be shocked if Cam started and did well? Nope.

 

I think Bill Belichick got tired of hearing all the Brady/TB chatter, and said.... "OK guys, watch this" lol. 

 

I'll be hoping that both TB and NE have horrible seasons lol

 

Strange times.

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On 7/3/2020 at 11:21 AM, EastStreet said:

It's not really only about using cap space that wasn't going to be used. A whole lot of things factor, and honestly we just don't know what the financial modelers have planned. Carryover is probably getting more and more important looking ahead. What we do know, is that 2021 and 2022 will be years of either costly extensions, and/or FA turnover (which will likely be costly). 

 

Having 4 of 5 of our starting OL come up on FA in 2021 is pretty scary lol. And 5 of 5 in 20 and 21. With 4 of those likely getting top 5 or 10 at their positions. That, and having only Eason and Kelly under contract next year lol. 

 

They probably overshot their mark with the JB deal, by quite a bit. I always agreed with the cap strategy fo extending him, but I thought they'd give him something like $12m for an extra year, not $28m. They probably also could have gotten away with a different guarantee structure that didn't lock them in for most of that money. Worst case scenario, cap-wise, is he lights it up in 2019 and they tag him for $28m anyway. I don't think he had a market to justify that extension. 

 

They also considered some intangibles, like the locker room and culture, and paying JB after Luck's retirement was probably a good move. But I didn't think they had to give him that much. 

 

Even still, let's split the difference and say they could have gotten him in two years, $20m. We're talking about an extra $10m to work with. 

 

With Covid, that extra $10m might be an issue. Last thing I read was the league is preparing for revenue to decrease by $2-4bm each year over the next two seasons. That might mean a cap reduction of $60m/year. They're talking with the NFLPA about ways to spread that out over several seasons, which is what they did after the 2011 CBA. So maybe it's a year reduction of $30m, that lasts for four seasons. Either way, while teams were preparing for a 2021 cap between $210-240m (based on projections of increased revenue and a higher split to the players), that might be as little as $180m in 2021. But probably more like $200m, assuming there is a 2020 season.

 

So the Colts have this long line of FAs in 2021, plus third year guys eligible for extensions, and while they thought they'd have over $100m to work with, it might be something like $70m. An extra $10m might have come in handy. But it's not really going to change the shape of the team, or the team's trajectory.

 

But in late August 2019, no one was expecting our present reality. I'm also not suggesting it's ever okay to blow $10m in player salary. Just saying that I don't think that overpaying JB is a disaster.

 

Realistically, they're going to keep Hilton, R. Kelly, and maybe Rivers and Walker in 2021, and everyone else is going to have to find a new team (with some small exceptions). And then between 2021 and 2022, they're going to make sure Nelson and Leonard get extended. Smith and Glowinski have a long way to go before they earn extensions, IMO. It would be nice if Turay and Lewis are foundational pieces at that point, but right now they are not. 

 

We're going from having no one to pay to having a lot of guys to pay, and that means some good players will leave. That's what happens when you draft well over multiple years. The pandemic might add to that pain. Overpaying JB by $10m or so isn't going to be a major factor. Maybe it costs us another year of Justin Houston, when he's 33 years old. It won't cost us one of our young star players. 

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35 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

They probably overshot their mark with the JB deal, by quite a bit. I always agreed with the cap strategy fo extending him, but I thought they'd give him something like $12m for an extra year, not $28m. They probably also could have gotten away with a different guarantee structure that didn't lock them in for most of that money. Worst case scenario, cap-wise, is he lights it up in 2019 and they tag him for $28m anyway. I don't think he had a market to justify that extension. 

 

They also considered some intangibles, like the locker room and culture, and paying JB after Luck's retirement was probably a good move. But I didn't think they had to give him that much. 

 

Even still, let's split the difference and say they could have gotten him in two years, $20m. We're talking about an extra $10m to work with. 

 

With Covid, that extra $10m might be an issue. Last thing I read was the league is preparing for revenue to decrease by $2-4bm each year over the next two seasons. That might mean a cap reduction of $60m/year. They're talking with the NFLPA about ways to spread that out over several seasons, which is what they did after the 2011 CBA. So maybe it's a year reduction of $30m, that lasts for four seasons. Either way, while teams were preparing for a 2021 cap between $210-240m (based on projections of increased revenue and a higher split to the players), that might be as little as $180m in 2021. But probably more like $200m, assuming there is a 2020 season.

 

So the Colts have this long line of FAs in 2021, plus third year guys eligible for extensions, and while they thought they'd have over $100m to work with, it might be something like $70m. An extra $10m might have come in handy. But it's not really going to change the shape of the team, or the team's trajectory.

 

But in late August 2019, no one was expecting our present reality. I'm also not suggesting it's ever okay to blow $10m in player salary. Just saying that I don't think that overpaying JB is a disaster.

 

Realistically, they're going to keep Hilton, R. Kelly, and maybe Rivers and Walker in 2021, and everyone else is going to have to find a new team (with some small exceptions). And then between 2021 and 2022, they're going to make sure Nelson and Leonard get extended. Smith and Glowinski have a long way to go before they earn extensions, IMO. It would be nice if Turay and Lewis are foundational pieces at that point, but right now they are not. 

 

We're going from having no one to pay to having a lot of guys to pay, and that means some good players will leave. That's what happens when you draft well over multiple years. The pandemic might add to that pain. Overpaying JB by $10m or so isn't going to be a major factor. Maybe it costs us another year of Justin Houston, when he's 33 years old. It won't cost us one of our young star players. 

It's definitely not end-of-world type stuff, but it is an impact. Even the loss of a solid DE like Houston for a year could be a major impact when we have zero proven DEs right now besides him. Like I said, we don't know what the financial modeling looks like for the next couple years, but eating 10M stinks lol. I was OK with the extension too, just not the total amount, and not the guarantees. I would have loved to see some incentive based elements that could bring him up where he is had he succeeded. Oh well. Sheet happens.

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