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Ballard just said he wants more picks in the draft

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43 minutes ago, indykmj said:

  Amazes me how many still seem to think that Higgins is going in the 1st 

  round (or at least prior to #34)....

Higgins has played every WR postion for Clemson. Moved all over from Z to X to Slot. He's not blazing fast (only 4.5s), but that's enough given his burst and ball control. Is he a first rounder, IDK, but he's been very productive which is why folks will look at him early. He was also doubled a ton yet still manged over a 1000 last year.

 

Personally, I like Claypool and Pittman better as pure Xs, but Higgins is more flexible position wise.

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Higgins has played every WR postion for Clemson. Moved all over from Z to X to Slot. He's not blazing fast (only 4.5s), but that's enough given his burst and ball control. Is he a first rounder, IDK, but he's been very productive which is why folks will look at him early. He was also doubled a ton yet still manged over a 1000 last year.

 

Personally, I like Claypool and Pittman better as pure Xs, but Higgins is more flexible position wise.

I think it is also important for the wr's ability to block.  I think people r over looking that trait when looking at this positon.  Reich wants a top 5 running game and that is not solely on the RB and/or O line.

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18 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I think it is also important for the wr's ability to block.  I think people r over looking that trait when looking at this positon.  Reich wants a top 5 running game and that is not solely on the RB and/or O line.

 

 And I think that Reich is misguided. But that's a whole different topic...

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On 4/17/2020 at 11:51 PM, NewColtsFan said:

One way way to get a third 2nd round pick is to offer next years 1st round pick.   
 

I don’t see that happening.

 

Another way is to offer our 3 and 4 and see if that gets us into the bottom of the 2nd round.   But that’s a 2-for-1 trade where we lose a pick,  not gain one.

 

So I don’t see that happening.
 

Odds are high that Ballard wants to collect another 4 and 5 by moving down ever so slightly on picks 34 and 44.


That would give us multiple picks in rounds 4, 5, and 6.   That feels like a Ballard-like thing to do. 

 

One of the trades I'd be OK to do is with the Falcons, getting No.47 and No.78 if they want to move badly up to No.34. Gives us an extra 3rd rounder, and still maintains all our 2nd round picks within the top half of Round 2. 

 

Again, sounds cliched, but if they have rated just about 20 players as blue chippers, and you are already out of that range, and you have your eyes on plenty of 2nd rounders that you think will contribute in the same manner (emphasis - role for your team, not for another team), moving back should not be an issue at all.

 

We stood pat with Rock-Ya-Sin, and then you can always bring up names of other 2nd rounders drafted after him that played a bigger role for their teams than RYS. That doesn't matter to the Colts but the casual fan may go down the path of ifs and buts, whether we trade down or stand pat. If you believe in your coaching and scouting that you can get just as much productivity out of a player drafted at No.47 as you would at No.34, just do it. That is how I look at it. 

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19 minutes ago, indykmj said:

 

 And I think that Reich is misguided. But that's a whole different topic...

Right or wrong.  What I do like about Reich is that you know in what direction he wants team to go.

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30 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

One of the trades I'd be OK to do is with the Falcons, getting No.47 and No.78 if they want to move badly up to No.34. Gives us an extra 3rd rounder, and still maintains all our 2nd round picks within the top half of Round 2. 

 

Again, sounds cliched, but if they have rated just about 20 players as blue chippers, and you are already out of that range, and you have your eyes on plenty of 2nd rounders that you think will contribute in the same manner (emphasis - role for your team, not for another team), moving back should not be an issue at all.

 

We stood pat with Rock-Ya-Sin, and then you can always bring up names of other 2nd rounders drafted after him that played a bigger role for their teams than RYS. That doesn't matter to the Colts but the casual fan may go down the path of ifs and buts, whether we trade down or stand pat. If you believe in your coaching and scouting that you can get just as much productivity out of a player drafted at No.47 as you would at No.34, just do it. That is how I look at it. 

The issue isn’t with the Colts doing that deal.   We’d do it in a heart beat.

 

Moving down, we’d give up 130 points. But the Falcons pick 78 is worth 200 points.   So the big issue is with Atlanta.  It’s highly doubtful they’d give up 70 additional points.  Way too lopsided.  We’d have to give them our 4 and the points would still favor the Colts. 
 

Coming close to matching up deals can be really hard. 

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I have a feeling we are all going to be scratching are heads after the draft. We won’t get any popular names at 34 or 44. We will just be like MEH. We may take a tackle at 34 and trade 44 for more picks. Lol. It is probably going to be uneventful.

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32 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

The issue isn’t with the Colts doing that deal.   We’d do it in a heart beat.

 

Moving down, we’d give up 130 points. But the Falcons pick 78 is worth 200 points.   So the big issue is with Atlanta.  It’s highly doubtful they’d give up 70 additional points.  Way too lopsided.  We’d have to give them our 4 and the points would still favor the Colts. 
 

Coming close to matching up deals can be really hard. 


The pick at No.34 might be something the Falcons might want badly enough to move up, there’s always a chance. Draft value charts are just guidelines anyways, not steadfast rules. 
 

Plus, the Falcons also have an additional second rounder, which might help them with the thought process of moving up. 

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On 4/17/2020 at 6:50 PM, Blueblood23 said:

Take the best player with your pick. Missing a player trading down is a lack of confidence. Trading down if it doesn’t work out then it’s not as big a mistake. Colts need difference makers not just volume. Ballard can get volume on undrafted  free agents.

I'd feel more comfortable with this move if we were still building a contending roster but right now I feel we are a few difference makers away from Tampa.  Trading down just reduces the odds of a real difference maker that I believe can be had with 34/44!!!  These two Picks with such a deep draft can be a dream come true that only happens a time or two in a lifetime!

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some gms are so afraid of drafting a high pick bust that they miss out on gamechangers, a gm dosent look so bad if a fourth rounder does not cut it, but he looks great if he finds a pro bowler there

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47 minutes ago, BornHoosier said:

I'd feel more comfortable with this move if we were still building a contending roster but right now I feel we are a few difference makers away from Tampa.  Trading down just reduces the odds of a real difference maker that I believe can be had with 34/44!!!  These two Picks with such a deep draft can be a dream come true that only happens a time or two in a lifetime!

just hope ballard is not afraid of drafting a bust

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11 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

just hope ballard is not afraid of drafting a bust

Cant really draft a bust at 34/44 Defense, can you?  Take best player avail at both picks and lay your head down to sleep before your remaining picks should do the trick right?

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2 minutes ago, BornHoosier said:

Cant really draft a bust at 34/44 Defense, can you?  Take best player avail at both picks and lay your head down to sleep before your remaining picks should do the trick right?

yes busts are in every  round, but a lot larger in the higher rounds

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1 hour ago, BornHoosier said:

I'd feel more comfortable with this move if we were still building a contending roster but right now I feel we are a few difference makers away from Tampa.  Trading down just reduces the odds of a real difference maker that I believe can be had with 34/44!!!  These two Picks with such a deep draft can be a dream come true that only happens a time or two in a lifetime!

This. We should be able to get some really good difference makers with these picks. We need to keep both.  This doesn’t happen often. If we keep trading down your just getting people to replace the ones you drafted the year before. We don’t need depth anymore. We need difference makers.  The only way this could be good is where there are a couple players you like and you  move down a couple spots and get a additional later pick.  This is what happened last year. We moved down and still got the player we wanted.

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Ballard has had so much luck with trading down I just hope it don't back fire on him this season. 

I understand he wants more players but where is the line where he steps over a very talented player to get two sup par players in later rounds?

Honestly, I don't know. 

Odds are it's bound to happen. His batting average is very high for a GM who is still pretty new in the big picture. 

 

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2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Ballard has had so much luck with trading down I just hope it don't back fire on him this season. 

I understand he wants more players but where is the line where he steps over a very talented player to get two sup par players in later rounds?

Honestly, I don't know. 

Odds are it's bound to happen. His batting average is very high for a GM who is still pretty new in the big picture. 

 

Yes Crazycolt, he has had some success but we all feel this isn't the draft to perform superhuman duties of the Indianapolis Colts.  Doesn't mean if he does throw on the cape that he is wrong, just the odds or smell test doesn't pass is all.  I wouldn't bet against CB or his staff no matter how strong my armchair GM thoughts say!

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On 4/17/2020 at 5:20 PM, Superfly said:


Agreed!

 

I’m really hoping the Colts stay put at 34 and 44. The risk of potentially losing out on a solid player, isn’t worth it to me.

 

I didn’t mind the trade down last season and getting Rock, but that pick could have been Montez Sweat and he quietly had a very good rookie season. 
 

 

 

Ballard has said prior to last year's draft that he looks several years ahead in drafts.  He said over a year ago that the 2020 draft is loaded with WR talent (which it is).  I also imagine aside from scouting the players in the draft that Ballard and his staff look very closely at other teams' needs.  Last year, I think Ballard had a very high grade on Ya-Sin and also had a good level of confidence that he'd be around at 34 when he decided to trade back based on the needs of other teams prior to that pick.  

 

Of course, every draft is different and weird runs often happen with certain positions.  I tend to doubt Ballard will make a trade prior to being on the clock and seeing who's available and what teams behind 34 are in need of.  We all know WR is a priority in this draft.  Unless something odd (some freak injury or major discipline/character issues arise) happens, we can say with confidence that CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III will be off the board before we pick.  Several mock drafts have up to 7 WRs going in the first round (Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Raegor, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabriel Davis, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault II, and Denzel Mims are the names that get thrown into the first round in some mocks).  

 

Chances are out of that second group, several will be available at 34.  Other teams have other needs at positions which are thinner than WR in this draft.  We also have a need for a couple OL in this draft (1, a back-up plan for Castonzo, 2, overall depth after losing Haeg and Andrews).  We don't know who will be on the board at 34/44 yet. If a stud drops, sure pull the trigger.  If not,  chances are several out of Austin Jackson (OT USC), Josh Jones (OT Houston), Isiah Wilson (OT UGA), Prince Tega Wanogho (OT Auburn), Ezra Cleveland (OT Boise), Matt Peart (OT UCONN), Trey Adam (OT Washington) will be around then.  Same with OGs, a lot of guys projects 1-2 or 2-3 rounds.  

 

Others say the Colts could use a QB in this draft.  Based on Ballard's comments, I don't think we'll take one.  However, other teams behind us also have a need.  The Chargers at pick 37 need a QB, for sure.  The Dolphins at 39 need a QB for sure (a lot say they'll go Tua in Round 1, but we don't know that).  Sounds like the Panthers at 38 are going with Bridgewater as their starter, but they could be a team wanting a QB.  A lot of negative stuff going on in CLE with Baker Mayfield, they're picking 41 (sounds like a lot of players, including OBJ) are not happy with Mayfield.  Pittsburgh at 49 needs a QB to replace Roethlisberger.  If a guy like Love or Herbert falls to 34, and if Ballard is comfortable with our current QB situation (sounds like he is based on him saying he wants Rivers to play 2 years here) and the FA and Draft class of 2021, there are several teams we could drop back a few spots with, knowing they'll likely take a QB at 34 (or 44 with the Steelers for their 49) and with confidence that at least a few of the above WRs and OL will still be available.  

 

Others say we need a CB.  Several guys have 1-2 or 2-3 round projections who seem to fit Ballard's mold.  CJ Henderson (Florida 6'1" 204, 4.39 forty), Damon Arnette (6'0 195 4.5 forty Ohio State), Trevon Diggs (Alabama 6'1 205, 4.5 forty), Cameron Dantzler (Miss. State, 6'2 188 4.6 forty), Kristian Fulton (LSU 6'0 197, 4.46 forty), Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn 5'10 198, 4.48 forty), AJ Terrell (Clemson, 6'1, 2195, 4.42 forty), Jaylon Johnson (6'0" 193, 4.5), Jeff Gladney (TCU 5'10" 191, 4.48) are all guys that have a good chance of being around come pick 34, with several being around at 44 and later.  

 

Others say we need a TE.  This draft has no real 'stud' from day 1 TEs (IMO).  But chances are that Kmet (ND), Trautman (Dayton), Thad Moss (LSU), Colby Parkinson (Stanford), Albert okwuegbunam (Mizzou), Hunter Bryant (Washington), Stephen Sullivan (LSU), Dalton Keene (Va Tech), and Brycen Hopkins (Purdue) will all be on the board at 34, most of them at 44, and several late in 2nd or in 3rd and 4th rounds.  

 

Then there are studs at other positions who may fall.  Reading Ballard's comments about Hooker's 5th year option, when he said he'll reevaluate things after the draft... the first guy that jumps to mind is Grant Delpit from LSU.  If he's on the board at 34, it may be too good to pass up.  

 

Then you have a bunch of talented WRs who are likely to be available in round 3-5 (some mentioned above, almost all those guys are bigger guys which I think we need and I think is what Ballard wanted from Funchess)... but there are other guys  like KJ Hamler (PSU, 5'9, 178, 4.4 forty) who will likely be available in the late second or 3rd -- a lot of people compare him to DeSean Jackson and TY (he could also be like a Dorsett), Lynn Bowden (Kentucky, 5'11, 204, 4.49 compared to Randall Cobb).. and other bigger guys like Tyler Johnson (Minnesota, 6'2" 200 4.54), COllin Johnson (Texas, 6'5" 221, 4.55) and about 10-12 others with freakish physical traits who will be almost for sure available in the 3rd. 

 

You have OL, like Yasir Durant (Mizzou, 6'6, 331) Terrenece Steele (Texas Tech, 6'6 312), Charlie Heck (6'7 309, UNC), Hakeem Adeniji (Kansas, 6'4 302 who can play G or T), and Lucas Niang (TCU 6'6 315) along with a few others who should be on the board in rounds 3-5.  

 

I would not mind at all if we traded back from 34 and picked up one of the WRs in the first list, got an extra 3rd rounder and got KJ Hamler (TY's eventual replacement, who should be able to contribute from day 1), plus a TE and one of the OL mentioned above.

 

FYI -- my source here is mainly Walter Football -- https://walterfootball.com/draft2020OT.php https://walterfootball.com/draft2020CB.php https://walterfootball.com/draft2020TE.php (they have them for every position).

 

On 4/18/2020 at 7:49 AM, ThinBlueLineColts said:

I think it will depend on who is off the board and who remains and their thoughts on said player. For those that watched last season’s With the next pick series they didn’t accept the trade until they were on the clock. My hope is that a WR they really really like is still available that they have a 1st/2nd round grade on. If not I believe they will look for a trade back to get more 2nd/3rd round picks.
 

If I’ve learned anything it’s expect the unexpected with Ballard. I remember couple years ago being like who in the world is Darius Leonard. I look his tape up and see he’s not only pretty good but find out Ballard had him rated as his top remaining linebacker. This group of scouts, GM, assistant GM don’t leave no stone unturned. I think the only disagreement I have with them is their excitement with performances at the Senior Bowl. I view that game as a glorified scrimmage. 

 

Ballard has done a very good job at doing what the Colts need instead of what the media or this forum wants/expects.  The whole world seemed to bash him for Leonard who is a 2x All-Pro after 2 years.  

 

They are getting solid talent from smaller schools, too.  EJ Speed, who I think still has a lot of upside came from Tarleton State.  I really like Camron Lewis from that same school -- ran a 4.28 forty, benched 225 12x, had a 10'9 broad jump and good shuttle times at his pro day.  He's 6'1" 185 and has very freakish athletic ability from a small school.  Would love to see Ballard grab him as a UDFA or with a 5-7 round pick.

 

Also, I like that they use the Senior Bowl.  I get it, the game itself is kind of like a scrimmage (or Pro Bowl).  I don't think they put a ton of stock into the game itself.  I think they put more stock into seeing how these guys practice with NFL coaches (e.g., the 2020 senior bowl was coached by Detroit Lions and Cinci Bengals coaching staffs).  It's also in practice with one-on-one drills where they can evaluate small school guys.  It's very difficult to tell from tape how good a kid from a school like Wyoming (e.g., Logan Wilson, LB), Dayton (e.g., Adam Trautman, TE), Portland State (e.g., Charlie Taumoepeau), Liberty (e.g., Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR), or a lot of other small schools who put up great numbers can compete with guys from Alabama, Auburn, USC, etc... from watching their game tape against the competition they played against.  You can get a very good sense of how athletic, tough, disciplined, strong, etc. the guys from smaller schools are when you see them go head to head against guys from big conferences.  

 

 

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54 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Ballard has said prior to last year's draft that he looks several years ahead in drafts.  He said over a year ago that the 2020 draft is loaded with WR talent (which it is).  I also imagine aside from scouting the players in the draft that Ballard and his staff look very closely at other teams' needs.  Last year, I think Ballard had a very high grade on Ya-Sin and also had a good level of confidence that he'd be around at 34 when he decided to trade back based on the needs of other teams prior to that pick.  

 

Of course, every draft is different and weird runs often happen with certain positions.  I tend to doubt Ballard will make a trade prior to being on the clock and seeing who's available and what teams behind 34 are in need of.  We all know WR is a priority in this draft.  Unless something odd (some freak injury or major discipline/character issues arise) happens, we can say with confidence that CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III will be off the board before we pick.  Several mock drafts have up to 7 WRs going in the first round (Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Raegor, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabriel Davis, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault II, and Denzel Mims are the names that get thrown into the first round in some mocks).  

 

Chances are out of that second group, several will be available at 34.  Other teams have other needs at positions which are thinner than WR in this draft.  We also have a need for a couple OL in this draft (1, a back-up plan for Castonzo, 2, overall depth after losing Haeg and Andrews).  We don't know who will be on the board at 34/44 yet. If a stud drops, sure pull the trigger.  If not,  chances are several out of Austin Jackson (OT USC), Josh Jones (OT Houston), Isiah Wilson (OT UGA), Prince Tega Wanogho (OT Auburn), Ezra Cleveland (OT Boise), Matt Peart (OT UCONN), Trey Adam (OT Washington) will be around then.  Same with OGs, a lot of guys projects 1-2 or 2-3 rounds.  

 

Others say the Colts could use a QB in this draft.  Based on Ballard's comments, I don't think we'll take one.  However, other teams behind us also have a need.  The Chargers at pick 37 need a QB, for sure.  The Dolphins at 39 need a QB for sure (a lot say they'll go Tua in Round 1, but we don't know that).  Sounds like the Panthers at 38 are going with Bridgewater as their starter, but they could be a team wanting a QB.  A lot of negative stuff going on in CLE with Baker Mayfield, they're picking 41 (sounds like a lot of players, including OBJ) are not happy with Mayfield.  Pittsburgh at 49 needs a QB to replace Roethlisberger.  If a guy like Love or Herbert falls to 34, and if Ballard is comfortable with our current QB situation (sounds like he is based on him saying he wants Rivers to play 2 years here) and the FA and Draft class of 2021, there are several teams we could drop back a few spots with, knowing they'll likely take a QB at 34 (or 44 with the Steelers for their 49) and with confidence that at least a few of the above WRs and OL will still be available.  

 

Others say we need a CB.  Several guys have 1-2 or 2-3 round projections who seem to fit Ballard's mold.  CJ Henderson (Florida 6'1" 204, 4.39 forty), Damon Arnette (6'0 195 4.5 forty Ohio State), Trevon Diggs (Alabama 6'1 205, 4.5 forty), Cameron Dantzler (Miss. State, 6'2 188 4.6 forty), Kristian Fulton (LSU 6'0 197, 4.46 forty), Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn 5'10 198, 4.48 forty), AJ Terrell (Clemson, 6'1, 2195, 4.42 forty), Jaylon Johnson (6'0" 193, 4.5), Jeff Gladney (TCU 5'10" 191, 4.48) are all guys that have a good chance of being around come pick 34, with several being around at 44 and later.  

 

Others say we need a TE.  This draft has no real 'stud' from day 1 TEs (IMO).  But chances are that Kmet (ND), Trautman (Dayton), Thad Moss (LSU), Colby Parkinson (Stanford), Albert okwuegbunam (Mizzou), Hunter Bryant (Washington), Stephen Sullivan (LSU), Dalton Keene (Va Tech), and Brycen Hopkins (Purdue) will all be on the board at 34, most of them at 44, and several late in 2nd or in 3rd and 4th rounds.  

 

Then there are studs at other positions who may fall.  Reading Ballard's comments about Hooker's 5th year option, when he said he'll reevaluate things after the draft... the first guy that jumps to mind is Grant Delpit from LSU.  If he's on the board at 34, it may be too good to pass up.  

 

Then you have a bunch of talented WRs who are likely to be available in round 3-5 (some mentioned above, almost all those guys are bigger guys which I think we need and I think is what Ballard wanted from Funchess)... but there are other guys  like KJ Hamler (PSU, 5'9, 178, 4.4 forty) who will likely be available in the late second or 3rd -- a lot of people compare him to DeSean Jackson and TY (he could also be like a Dorsett), Lynn Bowden (Kentucky, 5'11, 204, 4.49 compared to Randall Cobb).. and other bigger guys like Tyler Johnson (Minnesota, 6'2" 200 4.54), COllin Johnson (Texas, 6'5" 221, 4.55) and about 10-12 others with freakish physical traits who will be almost for sure available in the 3rd. 

 

You have OL, like Yasir Durant (Mizzou, 6'6, 331) Terrenece Steele (Texas Tech, 6'6 312), Charlie Heck (6'7 309, UNC), Hakeem Adeniji (Kansas, 6'4 302 who can play G or T), and Lucas Niang (TCU 6'6 315) along with a few others who should be on the board in rounds 3-5.  

 

I would not mind at all if we traded back from 34 and picked up one of the WRs in the first list, got an extra 3rd rounder and got KJ Hamler (TY's eventual replacement, who should be able to contribute from day 1), plus a TE and one of the OL mentioned above.

 

FYI -- my source here is mainly Walter Football -- https://walterfootball.com/draft2020OT.php https://walterfootball.com/draft2020CB.php https://walterfootball.com/draft2020TE.php (they have them for every position).

 

 

Ballard has done a very good job at doing what the Colts need instead of what the media or this forum wants/expects.  The whole world seemed to bash him for Leonard who is a 2x All-Pro after 2 years.  

 

They are getting solid talent from smaller schools, too.  EJ Speed, who I think still has a lot of upside came from Tarleton State.  I really like Camron Lewis from that same school -- ran a 4.28 forty, benched 225 12x, had a 10'9 broad jump and good shuttle times at his pro day.  He's 6'1" 185 and has very freakish athletic ability from a small school.  Would love to see Ballard grab him as a UDFA or with a 5-7 round pick.

 

Also, I like that they use the Senior Bowl.  I get it, the game itself is kind of like a scrimmage (or Pro Bowl).  I don't think they put a ton of stock into the game itself.  I think they put more stock into seeing how these guys practice with NFL coaches (e.g., the 2020 senior bowl was coached by Detroit Lions and Cinci Bengals coaching staffs).  It's also in practice with one-on-one drills where they can evaluate small school guys.  It's very difficult to tell from tape how good a kid from a school like Wyoming (e.g., Logan Wilson, LB), Dayton (e.g., Adam Trautman, TE), Portland State (e.g., Charlie Taumoepeau), Liberty (e.g., Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR), or a lot of other small schools who put up great numbers can compete with guys from Alabama, Auburn, USC, etc... from watching their game tape against the competition they played against.  You can get a very good sense of how athletic, tough, disciplined, strong, etc. the guys from smaller schools are when you see them go head to head against guys from big conferences.  

 

 

WOW, what a thought out post but what I can't rap my head around is what if CB and Staff trade back & miss out on real pro bowl talent that was there at 34/44?  In this draft, there are pro bowl talent at 34/44 but can not say the same after that as the later the pick the more questions there are.  It would be quite the gamble for this staff to trade back & still get the quality of picks.  Remember, this Colts Team is not rebuilding but just a few difference makers from representing the AFC so why GAMBLE?

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5 minutes ago, BornHoosier said:

WOW, what a thought out post but what I can't rap my head around is what if CB and Staff trade back & miss out on real pro bowl talent that was there at 34/44?  In this draft, there are pro bowl talent at 34/44 but can not say the same after that as the later the pick the more questions there are.  It would be quite the gamble for this staff to trade back & still get the quality of picks.  Remember, this Colts Team is not rebuilding but just a few difference makers from representing the AFC so why GAMBLE?

 

Ballard didn't trade back last year until we were on the clock and he had a good idea of what would be on the board when it came time for us to pick.  I doubt he'll make a major trade before he's on the clock or a few picks away from being on the clock this year.  If he's got 3-5 WRs ranked pretty similarly at 34 (easy to imagine with Mims, Pittman, Claypool, Gabriel Davis, Reagor, etc.), he can trade back to pick 37 or 38 with 100% confidence that at least one of them will still be on the board when he gets to pick.  In doing so, he can also acquire a 3rd or 4th round pick and there will still be talent there which he can use to either build depth at OL, WR, TE, CB or other positions of need.  

 

If, for some reason, there is a major run at WR and only 1 of those guys is available, trading back might not be a good idea.  If a high quality OL, DB, edge guy falls to 34, it might also not make sense to trade back.  

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2 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Ballard didn't trade back last year until we were on the clock and he had a good idea of what would be on the board when it came time for us to pick.  I doubt he'll make a major trade before he's on the clock or a few picks away from being on the clock this year.  If he's got 3-5 WRs ranked pretty similarly at 34 (easy to imagine with Mims, Pittman, Claypool, Gabriel Davis, Reagor, etc.), he can trade back to pick 37 or 38 with 100% confidence that at least one of them will still be on the board when he gets to pick.  In doing so, he can also acquire a 3rd or 4th round pick and there will still be talent there which he can use to either build depth at OL, WR, TE, CB or other positions of need.  

 

If, for some reason, there is a major run at WR and only 1 of those guys is available, trading back might not be a good idea.  If a high quality OL, DB, edge guy falls to 34, it might also not make sense to trade back.  

Imagine the risk and the eventual wr pick was a bust, TY gets injured and our Colts are 8-8 again because a difference maker was there at 34 but we traded back???  THERE is no way were taking the chance at trading down at 34 for the reasons mentioned above!

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Just now, BornHoosier said:

Imagine the risk and the eventual wr pick was a bust, TY gets injured and our Colts are 8-8 again because a difference maker was there at 34 but we traded back???  THERE is no way were taking the chance at trading down at 34 for the reasons mentioned above!

 

Yea, we won't know that until pick 34 rolls around.  There's a risk of a bust at every pick.  Ballard, Ed Dodds, Reich are all very smart guys.  They also have, which I love, Brian Decker a former Lieutentant Colonel for the US Special Forces and overseer of talent acquisition strategy for the Green Berets, who does intense mental/character evaluations of all players they may be interested in.  IMO, that greatly reduces the chance of a bust because all the players we draft are high character, highly motivated guys.  

 

What if all 5 of the guys I mentioned in my previous post (Reagor, Pittman Jr., Mims, Claypool, Gabriel Davis) are on the board at 34 and we draft one of them who busts and another goes on to be a pro-bowler somewhere else?  That's something that'll take a few years to figure out. 

 

We, as fans, know nothing close to what Ballard and his crew do about these kids.  Say Ballard and Co. have almost the exact same grade on these kids (physically, mentally, and character-wise), what is there to lose if we trade back 3 spots and grab one of those kids, acquire an additional pick, and use that to get another top quality WR or 2 with later picks.  We then double our odds of having at least one of them being successful at the NFL level.

 

Right now it's all hypotheticals.  Ballard and his team of pro scouts and professional development experts have put a lot more time into this process than any of us.  So far, Ballard has a very solid track record in terms of the draft.  I'll trust him until he gives me a reason not to.  Even then, I'll still trust him over myself or anyone on this board.

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1 minute ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Yea, we won't know that until pick 34 rolls around.  There's a risk of a bust at every pick.  Ballard, Ed Dodds, Reich are all very smart guys.  They also have, which I love, Brian Decker a former Lieutentant Colonel for the US Special Forces and overseer of talent acquisition strategy for the Green Berets, who does intense mental/character evaluations of all players they may be interested in.  IMO, that greatly reduces the chance of a bust because all the players we draft are high character, highly motivated guys.  

 

What if all 5 of the guys I mentioned in my previous post (Reagor, Pittman Jr., Mims, Claypool, Gabriel Davis) are on the board at 34 and we draft one of them who busts and another goes on to be a pro-bowler somewhere else?  That's something that'll take a few years to figure out. 

 

We, as fans, know nothing close to what Ballard and his crew do about these kids.  Say Ballard and Co. have almost the exact same grade on these kids (physically, mentally, and character-wise), what is there to lose if we trade back 3 spots and grab one of those kids, acquire an additional pick, and use that to get another top quality WR or 2 with later picks.  We then double our odds of having at least one of them being successful at the NFL level.

 

Right now it's all hypotheticals.  Ballard and his team of pro scouts and professional development experts have put a lot more time into this process than any of us.  So far, Ballard has a very solid track record in terms of the draft.  I'll trust him until he gives me a reason not to.  Even then, I'll still trust him over myself or anyone on this board.

Great Post here for sure but I'm with you that ALL my TRUST is in this STAFF to make the right decisions!!!  We Armchair GM's can all speculate but our butts are not on the line lol!

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22 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Yea, we won't know that until pick 34 rolls around.  There's a risk of a bust at every pick.  Ballard, Ed Dodds, Reich are all very smart guys.  They also have, which I love, Brian Decker a former Lieutentant Colonel for the US Special Forces and overseer of talent acquisition strategy for the Green Berets, who does intense mental/character evaluations of all players they may be interested in.  IMO, that greatly reduces the chance of a bust because all the players we draft are high character, highly motivated guys.  

 

What if all 5 of the guys I mentioned in my previous post (Reagor, Pittman Jr., Mims, Claypool, Gabriel Davis) are on the board at 34 and we draft one of them who busts and another goes on to be a pro-bowler somewhere else?  That's something that'll take a few years to figure out. 

 

We, as fans, know nothing close to what Ballard and his crew do about these kids.  Say Ballard and Co. have almost the exact same grade on these kids (physically, mentally, and character-wise), what is there to lose if we trade back 3 spots and grab one of those kids, acquire an additional pick, and use that to get another top quality WR or 2 with later picks.  We then double our odds of having at least one of them being successful at the NFL level.

 

Right now it's all hypotheticals.  Ballard and his team of pro scouts and professional development experts have put a lot more time into this process than any of us.  So far, Ballard has a very solid track record in terms of the draft.  I'll trust him until he gives me a reason not to.  Even then, I'll still trust him over myself or anyone on this board.

I'd like to play Devils Advocate here and what if CB & Staff get no real difference makers in this draft after trading back?  What if they get a bunch of good players but none make a real difference that helps this team get over the hump?  Are we really going for it this yr or still building?  Too much of WHAT IF for this staff to let known talent walk away when were so close to contending!  How would you like to be CB and whiff on later picks when his team was so close to being contenders but he * it all away???  At some point, the MONSTER you built is ready now and wont be for very long in this league so dont * it away!!!

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1 minute ago, BornHoosier said:

I'd like to play Devils Advocate here and what if CB & Staff get no real difference makers in this draft after trading back?  What if they get a bunch of good players but none make a real difference that helps this team get over the hump?  Are we really going for it this yr or still building?  Too much of WHAT IF for this staff to let known talent walk away when were so close to contending!  How would you like to be CB and whiff on later picks when his team was so close to being contenders but he * it all away???  At some point, the MONSTER you built is ready now and wont be for very long in this league so dont * it away!!!

 

If you were our GM, we'd draft players from the 15th ranked Notre Dame every pick.  That's pretty clear.

 

There is plenty of depth at several positions of need for us in this draft.  Ballard will do what he and his staff deem best.  In the scenarios I laid out above, I have repeatedly said, I doubt Ballard will trade back for the sake of trading back.. but if he feels like he can move back a few slots, get more picks, and still gets who he wants, why wouldn't he do that?

 

We'll have no idea for 2-4 years after this draft if he did the 100% right thing drafting as late as we are.  The "Build the Monster" was a Grigs thing, and I (with probably 100% support of fans) are glad Grigs isn't our GM anymore.  #CmonMan

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1 minute ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

If you were our GM, we'd draft players from the 15th ranked Notre Dame every pick.  That's pretty clear.

 

There is plenty of depth at several positions of need for us in this draft.  Ballard will do what he and his staff deem best.  In the scenarios I laid out above, I have repeatedly said, I doubt Ballard will trade back for the sake of trading back.. but if he feels like he can move back a few slots, get more picks, and still gets who he wants, why wouldn't he do that?

 

We'll have no idea for 2-4 years after this draft if he did the 100% right thing drafting as late as we are.  The "Build the Monster" was a Grigs thing, and I (with probably 100% support of fans) are glad Grigs isn't our GM anymore.  #CmonMan

Only in this yrs draft I have been outspoken about Claypool, Kmet and the sudden rise of Troy Pride Jr who I think will be a steal of the 2020 draft!  I've watched every game the 574 had to offer and I can tell you hands down that both Claypool & Kmet are undervalued because of their INEPT qb that got a case of the deer in the headlights in his second season!  Both these players tested off the charts at the combine & would've been top 15 if they went to Clemson or Bama but the WORLD is getting a STEAL that ND continues to fail at getting all their ducks in a row to compete!  Their CB, TPJ was misused in the D they ran and it was no coincidence that during the SR Bowl that his skill set was off the charts!!!  Local sports radio just had a segment that TPJ (Troy Pride Jr), could be the first ND player off the board in the 2020 draft, which will be no surprise here!!!  Claypool & Kmet will both be future pro bowlers no doubt in my mind but hey I'm glad that CB & Staff see better talent later in the draft!  Grigson couldn't build a MONSTER if we spotted him the M O N S T E R!

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1 hour ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Yea, we won't know that until pick 34 rolls around.  There's a risk of a bust at every pick.  Ballard, Ed Dodds, Reich are all very smart guys.  They also have, which I love, Brian Decker a former Lieutentant Colonel for the US Special Forces and overseer of talent acquisition strategy for the Green Berets, who does intense mental/character evaluations of all players they may be interested in.  IMO, that greatly reduces the chance of a bust because all the players we draft are high character, highly motivated guys.  

 

What if all 5 of the guys I mentioned in my previous post (Reagor, Pittman Jr., Mims, Claypool, Gabriel Davis) are on the board at 34 and we draft one of them who busts and another goes on to be a pro-bowler somewhere else?  That's something that'll take a few years to figure out. 

 

We, as fans, know nothing close to what Ballard and his crew do about these kids.  Say Ballard and Co. have almost the exact same grade on these kids (physically, mentally, and character-wise), what is there to lose if we trade back 3 spots and grab one of those kids, acquire an additional pick, and use that to get another top quality WR or 2 with later picks.  We then double our odds of having at least one of them being successful at the NFL level.

 

Right now it's all hypotheticals.  Ballard and his team of pro scouts and professional development experts have put a lot more time into this process than any of us.  So far, Ballard has a very solid track record in terms of the draft.  I'll trust him until he gives me a reason not to.  Even then, I'll still trust him over myself or anyone on this board.

I guess most don't feel the need to try and hit on an unknown when our team is literally a piece or two away from representing the AFC!  I feel were in good shape if we hit on 34/44 alone and both spots should render difference makers that most drafts wouldn't have the same odds!  Can you say the same for picks 68 or 88??  I get that CB and Staff are great at their ART but what were all trying to say here is the ODDS are not in this great staff's favor!!!  NOBODY IS RIGHT OR WRONG UNTIL AT LEAST 2022!

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I don’t understand the logic of Ballard whiffing on a pro bowler if he trades back from 34.  He already has his  board set. Remember, he weeds out guys from the get go that aren’t Colts guys or if there are medical issues. At 34, his  guy may be available later on so why not get an extra pick. Your issue with Ballard really lies in his board. Maybe the difference maker some of you want is not a Colts guy and he is going to bypass him anyway. 

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29 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

I don’t understand the logic of Ballard whiffing on a pro bowler if he trades back from 34.  He already has his  board set. Remember, he weeds out guys from the get go that aren’t Colts guys or if there are medical issues. At 34, his  guy may be available later on so why not get an extra pick. Your issue with Ballard really lies in his board. Maybe the difference maker some of you want is not a Colts guy and he is going to bypass him anyway. 

I think it is a legitimate concern but not an issue, if that makes sense. 

Personally I trust Ballard and his whole draft crew just from their shear amount of work they put in. All I have is word of mouth and what the media puts out. I don't follow college football much at all so to do any more research it's on my time. And I sure don't have the time or the manpower that is at Ballard disposal. 

So many fans use players highlight reels and come to conclusions they think they will be great in the NFL. They don't look at the total reality of the step between college and the pros. Ballard seems to be real good at finding those players who have what it takes to be a success in the NFL even when they don't make the Colts roster. 

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7 hours ago, BornHoosier said:

I'd like to play Devils Advocate here and what if CB & Staff get no real difference makers in this draft after trading back?  What if they get a bunch of good players but none make a real difference that helps this team get over the hump?  Are we really going for it this yr or still building?  Too much of WHAT IF for this staff to let known talent walk away when were so close to contending!  How would you like to be CB and whiff on later picks when his team was so close to being contenders but he * it all away???  At some point, the MONSTER you built is ready now and wont be for very long in this league so dont * it away!!!

Absolutely NO prospect is a known talent in the NFL.  Not even Joe Burrow or Chase Young.  The staff have their board.  If they have several players graded similarly and they get an offer that lets them get more picks while still being in range for one of their targets, they're going to make that move.  They've spoken about how exclusive their board is in a normal year (not sure about this year) because they have personality and character so high on their priorities.  Nothing we can do but sit back and enjoy.  I'm a big proponent of trading back most years, and this year is no different, unless there's a target you REALLY want.  More darts the better (within reason.  No sense trading back continuously until you end up with 12 day 3 picks, haha)

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5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

I think it is a legitimate concern but not an issue, if that makes sense. 

Personally I trust Ballard and his whole draft crew just from their shear amount of work they put in. All I have is word of mouth and what the media puts out. I don't follow college football much at all so to do any more research it's on my time. And I sure don't have the time or the manpower that is at Ballard disposal. 

So many fans use players highlight reels and come to conclusions they think they will be great in the NFL. They don't look at the total reality of the step between college and the pros. Ballard seems to be real good at finding those players who have what it takes to be a success in the NFL even when they don't make the Colts roster. 

I don’t know anymore than anybody else. Some on here are are pretty knowledgeable about the prospects and watch tape. I watch the games and listen to what Ballard says.

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19 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

The issue isn’t with the Colts doing that deal.   We’d do it in a heart beat.

 

Moving down, we’d give up 130 points. But the Falcons pick 78 is worth 200 points.   So the big issue is with Atlanta.  It’s highly doubtful they’d give up 70 additional points.  Way too lopsided.  We’d have to give them our 4 and the points would still favor the Colts. 
 

Coming close to matching up deals can be really hard. 

Tell them they can have our 7th round pick LOL

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My hopeful scenario is that Ballard trades down a few spots, picks up an extra early 4th round pick, and is still able to land CB Trevon Diggs with an early 2nd round pick. Rhodes is no sure thing, and we need our long term starter opposite Rock on the outside. Moore is best suited for the slot. 

 

Then address WR with the later 2nd rounder. Someone like Michael Pittman or Jalen Reagor. We do need to come away with 2 quality WRs in this draft in my opinion because we need to start planning for life after TY Hilton. 

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If Ballard chooses to trade down, he'll get anywhere from "good" to "bend over and grab your ankles" value.  This may be the case at #34, which is like a 1st rounder any other year.  

 

The other posters here have made good arguments in both directions.  I'm about to sit back and enjoy April 20 knowing full well that no matter what Ballard does this weekend it will be the best decision at the time.  That's easy living right there folks.  

 

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I think we're to the point that we should go the other way and try to find four or five players who could start or at least be in a rotation and focus on getting as many picks as we can in rounds two through four.

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On 4/17/2020 at 11:50 PM, Blueblood23 said:

Take the best player with your pick. Missing a player trading down is a lack of confidence. Trading down if it doesn’t work out then it’s not as big a mistake. Colts need difference makers not just volume. Ballard can get volume on undrafted  free agents.

So you want volume from UNDRAFTED low skill players rather than getting volume in draft worthy players??

 

542cqp4lmhk31.jpg

 

Wasn't Leonard grabbed from an acquired pick?

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1 hour ago, Narcosys said:

So you want volume from UNDRAFTED low skill players rather than getting volume in draft worthy players??

 

542cqp4lmhk31.jpg

 

Wasn't Leonard grabbed from an acquired pick?

If you really believe that is going to happen very often then good luck. That pick was a fluke and when it was made it was highly questionable. 

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9 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

If you really believe that is going to happen very often then good luck. That pick was a fluke and when it was made it was highly questionable. 

Fluke or not, questionable or not, the fact is we got him because we had the picks to draft him and other skilled players. Furthermore, do you think hitting on undrafted picks wouldn't be a fluke??

 

542cqp4lmhk31.jpg

 

 

Recap 2018 and all our trade backs:

We got Quenton Nelson and Braden smith (Jets got Darnold), Turray, Lewis, and Wilkins from trading back (Philly picked Dallas Goedert), We got Cain and Fountain from trading back (Browns got Muarice Hurst).

 

Seems like trading back benefited us more than if we would have stayed put.

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1 hour ago, Narcosys said:

Fluke or not, questionable or not, the fact is we got him because we had the picks to draft him and other skilled players. Furthermore, do you think hitting on undrafted picks wouldn't be a fluke??

 

542cqp4lmhk31.jpg

 

 

Recap 2018 and all our trade backs:

We got Quenton Nelson and Braden smith (Jets got Darnold), Turray, Lewis, and Wilkins from trading back (Philly picked Dallas Goedert), We got Cain and Fountain from trading back (Browns got Muarice Hurst).

 

Seems like trading back benefited us more than if we would have stayed put.

You don’t know who the Colts would have selected had they stayed put.

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51 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

You don’t know who the Colts would have selected had they stayed put.

Simple, they would have taken Nelson.

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This trade talk about Hooker is gaining momentum, many sources have been talking about this. I really wonder that if we trade him what kind of compensation could we expect?  a 3rd round seems to be the best scenario 

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