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BleedBlue4Shoe86

What are the Odds?

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So, with the quarantine and not having a lot to do, I have really been listening to a lot of Colts Podcast and reading a lot of stories.  After doing this I am left with 1 Big Question.  What are the Colts gonna do about the long term future at QB?  Lets examine what is currently happening on the roster.

 

1.  Colts sign Rivers to a 1 year deal.  He is 38 and could be amazing or could drop off a cliff.  He says he feels he can play a few more years.  So lets say he plays 2 more years.

 

2.  Colts Cut Hoyer.

 

3.  It is reported that even though he has a large cap hit, they are gonna keep Brissett this year.  Is this so he can be the most expensive backup or is there something else to it.

 

4.  More and more reports are coming out that the Colts may forgo taking a QB at all in 2020 draft.

 

5.  Colts still have Kelly.

 

Okay, so now that we have what is being said and reported about the Colts QB situation, lets dive into what some of the conspiracy theories are.

 

1.  Colts still really like Brissett and might get him to rework his deal and remain as the backup.  My issue with this is that if you draft a QB in 2020-2021, you want him to be the backup to Rivers.  Heck even if you like Kelly, you want him being the backup.  If the Colts truly see no future in JB, then this is a dud of a theory.

 

2.  Colts may just let JB and Kelly walk at the end of 2020 season and look to draft a QB to eventually take over for Rivers.  My issue with this is that if Rivers does as well as everyone hopes, you are picking pretty late in the 1st round.  Odds are low that you get a great QB in the mid to late 20s.

 

So my overarching question is what is the future of the QB room?  Is it still Brissett?  Is is Kelly?  Is is a someone like a Justin Fields, Kellen Mond or Jamie Newman?

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Depends on how Rivers plays.  If he plays well, he might be here a few more years.

 

I doubt Brissett returns in 2021.

 

With no offseason training/practice in 2020, I doubt they draft a QB.  You couldn't get him ready anyway.  Just keep working with Kelly for a year and see what happens.  See what happens with him and see what happens in the 2021 draft.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, #12. said:

Depends on how Rivers plays.  If he plays well, he might be here a few more years.

 

I doubt Brissett returns in 2021.

 

With no offseason training/practice in 2020, I doubt they draft a QB.  You couldn't get him ready anyway.  Just keep working with Kelly for a year and see what happens.  See what happens with him and see what happens in the 2021 draft.

 

 


Agree with it all, except not drafting a QB. If you said ‘in the second round’ I’d probably agree to that too.  
 

Ballard may see a guy he could put on the PS in the later rounds, or even a third rounder to compete with Kelly.  We know he’ll at least pick up another arm for training camp, probably an UDFA.  

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I think it’s a 2021 QB. The one name I’m stuck on at the moment is Trey Lance, but you also have great options in Mond and Newman, all three of which I would rank over or in the same tier as Jordan Love. Next year’s class is stacked at QB, so it is great timing for us

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1 hour ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

1.  Colts sign Rivers to a 1 year deal.  He is 38 and could be amazing or could drop off a cliff.  He says he feels he can play a few more years.  So lets say he plays 2 more years.

I truly feel that Rivers could come play a good 3-4years here. With a great line and a coach thats committed to pounding the ball when need be. I see Rivers as the ultimate game manager. He should have less pressure on him(actual +mental). I think he is going to flourish in Indy. No homer, just true thoughts.

 

1 hour ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

 

3.  It is reported that even though he has a large cap hit, they are gonna keep Brissett this year.  Is this so he can be the most expensive backup or is there something else to it.

I think that the Colts would of loved to have traded him before we were on the hook for the Roster Bonus. Since that deadline has past we really dont have a pressing need to shed JB yet. We can set and wait for a trade or let him play out as backup at the $8.875m number( I know actually number is higher, $21m), all the other guaranteed money is gone and we are paying regardless. I think we are still hoping for a trade, if not keep and get comp pick next season.

 

Now if Clowney decides to come and we need the money, a trade or release would probably be imminent.

 

With the uncertainty of the moment though a QB with knowledge of the system(JB), is nice to have around with limited offseason workouts.

 

 

As far as how the rest plays out.

 

I think we will draft a QB this year if we are in striking range of a guy we really like.

 

I would suspect that if JB is traded it would be by draft, or during draft. Leaving a rookie to compete woth Kelly.

 

Who knows, some light should be shed shortly.

 

We know that within a month we will have some answers. Unlike most other things in our lives.

 

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Rivers could play 2-3 more years.  If it doesn't work out we will have a lot of cap space again, and probably draft someone too

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First of all, I would like to dispel what I see as a myth....the idea that the Colts are going to off Jacoby, draft a QB high, and roll with Rivers Kelly, and ? Ain't gonna happen. 

 

As far as taking a QB? I think they will either take one...likely later...that or snag one off someone's squad after cut downs for development. 

 

36 minutes ago, w87r said:

I truly feel that Rivers could come play a good 3-4years here. With a great line and a coach that is committed to pounding the ball when need be. I see Rivers as the ultimate game manager. He should have less pressure on him(actual +mental). I think he is going to flourish in Indy. No homer, just true thoughts.

This is quite likely. Injuries is of course, the ultimate factor here, but by year  two or three, I see someone beginning to step up to replace him. Exciting!

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2 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

So, with the quarantine and not having a lot to do, I have really been listening to a lot of Colts Podcast and reading a lot of stories.  After doing this I am left with 1 Big Question.  What are the Colts gonna do about the long term future at QB?  Lets examine what is currently happening on the roster.

 

1.  Colts sign Rivers to a 1 year deal.  He is 38 and could be amazing or could drop off a cliff.  He says he feels he can play a few more years.  So lets say he plays 2 more years.

 

2.  Colts Cut Hoyer.

 

3.  It is reported that even though he has a large cap hit, they are gonna keep Brissett this year.  Is this so he can be the most expensive backup or is there something else to it.

 

4.  More and more reports are coming out that the Colts may forgo taking a QB at all in 2020 draft.

 

5.  Colts still have Kelly.

 

Okay, so now that we have what is being said and reported about the Colts QB situation, lets dive into what some of the conspiracy theories are.

 

1.  Colts still really like Brissett and might get him to rework his deal and remain as the backup.  My issue with this is that if you draft a QB in 2020-2021, you want him to be the backup to Rivers.  Heck even if you like Kelly, you want him being the backup.  If the Colts truly see no future in JB, then this is a dud of a theory.

 

2.  Colts may just let JB and Kelly walk at the end of 2020 season and look to draft a QB to eventually take over for Rivers.  My issue with this is that if Rivers does as well as everyone hopes, you are picking pretty late in the 1st round.  Odds are low that you get a great QB in the mid to late 20s.

 

So my overarching question is what is the future of the QB room?  Is it still Brissett?  Is is Kelly?  Is is a someone like a Justin Fields, Kellen Mond or Jamie Newman?

 

There are several QBs younger than Rivers set to become FAs next year.  Mahommes and Watson will most definitely get franchise tagged.  Andy Dalton (if he's not let go after they likely draft a QB w/ pick #1), Mitch Trubisky (he hasn't lived up to the expectation of the #2 pick, but maybe a coach like Reich could help him), then of course Jacoby and Rivers are set to be FAs (if Rivers plays well and looks like he's got another year or 2 in him, won't be shocked if we bring him back).  Then  you've got DeShone Kizer set to become a FA... it'll be interesting to see what Gruden does there... between Kizer, Mariotta, and Carr, I'd expect they'll wind up releasing or trading Carr (there were already a lot of rumors about Carr to the Colts this year).   

 

27 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

First of all, I would like to dispel what I see as a myth....the idea that the Colts are going to off Jacoby, draft a QB high, and roll with Rivers Kelly, and ? Ain't gonna happen. 

 

As far as taking a QB? I think they will either take one...likely later...that or snag one off someone's squad after cut downs for development. 

 

This is quite likely. Injuries is of course, the ultimate factor here, but by year  two or three, I see someone beginning to step up to replace him. Exciting!

 

I hope we're not snagging someone off another team's practice squad with high expectations that he'll become our franchise QB (also, the only way to take a player from another team's practice squad is to put them on our active roster, we can't just take them and move them to our PS -- so with Rivers, Brissett, Kelly already in the mix, I doubt this is a viable option this year).  I get the feeling that is who Kelly already is for us.  Wouldn't mind seeing Kelly on the active roster this year (if he stays out of off-field trouble, I'd think someone else will take him from our PS if he has a good preseason) and stashing another QB on our practice squad to develop as a possible back-up.  

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I believe their hope is Rivers has a good enough year to where they will either tag him or re-sign to another 1 year deal. 
 

Jacoby is gone after this year when his contract ends. They then draft a guy they really like early next year to sit behind Rivers a year as the backup. 
 

Kelly right now to me is just someone they are hanging onto just in case someone offers a trade for Jacoby they just can’t resist. Kelly  then steps in as the backup. I personally don’t believe he’s in their long term plans. 

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I really have no idea what so ever why anyone would want the Colts to draft a later round "developmental" QB   None. makes zero sense.  We already have one of those in Kelly?  No idea why people want a mid round QB either.  Are they going to turn into a franchise QB? about a 70% chance they wont (pulled that number out of my *)   So WHY waste a pick on another QB that is going to do nothing. When there will be UDFA that could fill a PS spot.

 

I just don't get it and I haven't read one argument on here to make me even consider changing my mind.

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Rivers - will get extended if he plays well. TBD

 

Brissett - will be gone next year unless he accepts back up duties and takes a pay cut

 

Kelly - who knows, but his PS time has an expiration. If the Colts carry him as a 3rd QB this year, likely tells you they like him more than folks think. Half the teams carry 3, half 2. Teams get two extra roster spots this year, one limited to OL. It'll be interesting. 

 

2020 Draft - interested to see what happens. If Love falls to 34, I'd hope they would take a shot. Doubt he falls. I think it'll be interesting to see if they pick up another later. I really hope they don't take a guy like Fromm in the 2nd. I'd be somewhat OK with Eason, but would probably prefer a guy like Gordon later if at all. 

 

2021 Draft - we're basically going to be in a similar position next year roster wise, but likely have worst draft position. More or less out of the running for the top 2 or tier 1 guys. So same old question... can you realistically move up for one of those, or do you take a shot at traits.

 

2021 FA - the FA market next year will be worse than this year. The good QBs available are mostly CO's, and the ones that won't be will either get re-signed or franchised. Sure there might be some surprise entrances, or other guys made available, but I really doubt the market is better than this year.

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11 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

I really have no idea what so ever why anyone would want the Colts to draft a later round "developmental" QB   None. makes zero sense.  We already have one of those in Kelly?  No idea why people want a mid round QB either.  Are they going to turn into a franchise QB? about a 70% chance they wont (pulled that number out of my *)   So WHY waste a pick on another QB that is going to do nothing. When there will be UDFA that could fill a PS spot.

 

I just don't get it and I haven't read one argument on here to make me even consider changing my mind.

All depends on how they view Kelly. Unfortunately, we have little idea. 

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20 minutes ago, ThinBlueLineColts said:

I believe their hope is Rivers has a good enough year to where they will either tag him or re-sign to another 1 year deal. 
 

Jacoby is gone after this year when his contract ends. They then draft a guy they really like early next year to sit behind Rivers a year as the backup. 
 

Kelly right now to me is just someone they are hanging onto just in case someone offers a trade for Jacoby they just can’t resist. Kelly  then steps in as the backup. I personally don’t believe he’s in their long term plans. 

If Rivers turns out to be So good that the Colts have to tag him, the Chargers will look like *s for letting him walk.

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

All depends on how they view Kelly. Unfortunately, we have little idea. 

Fair enough.  They could be keeping him in case they can't find his replacement in the draft.  If not they keep him.  

 

But not finding the future franchise QB of the Colts 

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Kelly - who knows, but his PS time has an expiration. If the Colts carry him as a 3rd QB this year, likely tells you they like him more than folks think. Half the teams carry 3, half 2. Teams get two extra roster spots this year, one limited to OL. It'll be interesting. 

Do you think it is possible that the QB room is Rivers, JB and Kelly in 2020.  We don't draft anyone obviously, in 2020 draft.  Rivers plays well and we bring him back in 2021.  So the QB room is Rivers, Kelly and late round draft pick.  Then you allow Kelly to develop and work with Rivers and he takes over in 2022, since Rivers will be 40.

 

Just curious your thoughts?

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2 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Do you think it is possible that the QB room is Rivers, JB and Kelly in 2020.  We don't draft anyone obviously, in 2020 draft.  Rivers plays well and we bring him back in 2021.  So the QB room is Rivers, Kelly and late round draft pick.  Then you allow Kelly to develop and work with Rivers and he takes over in 2022, since Rivers will be 40.

 

Just curious your thoughts?

IDK, there's simply so many possibilities. I do like River's chances of getting extended though. I simply have no gut feel for Kelly right now. I know he has talent to warrant a substantial look and time to develop, just not sure if the FO will ever trust him. If they never plan to trust him, just wish they'd cut him and be done. JB is simply in limbo due to his being a high end back up, plus being an overpaid back up.... I could see the team rolling with him if they are going somewhat all in for this year, or simply cutting him if Love somehow drops to 34, or if they want to take shot at someone else. 

 

In short, after Rivers, the rest is a crap shoot. I'd prefer to keep JB, but not at his contract amount. Wish they could re-negotiate. On Kelly, they need to either sheet, or get off the pot at some point.

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26 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

Fair enough.  They could be keeping him in case they can't find his replacement in the draft.  If not they keep him.  

 

But not finding the future franchise QB of the Colts 

Like I just said in another response, I just wish they sheet or get off the pot with Kelly. If he's checked the behavior box the last two years, and you still don't trust him, you're never going to trust him. He's got the traits to warrant consideration and development, but it's simply a waste if they're incapable of ever trusting him. I still half way think this is all half favor to Uncle Jim, and half emergency only back up.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Like I just said in another response, I just wish they sheet or get off the pot with Kelly. If he's checked the behavior box the last two years, and you still don't trust him, you're never going to trust him. He's got the traits to warrant consideration and development, but it's simply a waste if they're incapable of ever trusting him. I still half way think this is all half favor to Uncle Jim, and half emergency only back up.

Agree

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I can assure you that Philip is very serious about coaching his sons in high school. Let's just call that one "non-negotiable".

 

That's why he said shortly after the season that he wanted to play 2 more years max. His older son will start high school right after those next 2 years. However, after these recent weeks, and as well as everything has gone in his initial talks and meetings with the Colts, he is more excited about playing right now than he has been in at least several years (if that's possible).

 

So that 2 year max, if things go well, may get extended. But with coaching his boys having been, literally, a life-long plan of his, I don't see it being extended more than another year. True, none of us knows what the future holds, and he doesn't even know, either. But I'd put it at well over 99% that he plays at the very most 3 more years. And still most likely just 2.

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my guess is we draft Jacob Eason in the second round (not at 34) and have him third string this year and hope we can develop him into what we need.

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Realistically there are three options because of the percentage of the cap tied up with Rivers and Brissett:

 

1) Rivers, Brissett, Kelly - Brissett released next offseason

2) Rivers, Brissett, Kelly/draftee - developmental QB competes for the third string slot with Kelly, likely to be a 3rd round pick or later

3) Rivers, draftee, Kelly - if somebody trades for Brissett we may pick a QB in round 2 or 3

 

Can't see any other likely scenarios and still think option 1 is the most likely.

 

How we proceed next offseason depends on how Rivers does, if he does well we'll try to retain him, if not we are probably looking at a first or second day pick next year.

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2 hours ago, ThinBlueLineColts said:


 

Kelly right now to me is just someone they are hanging onto just in case someone offers a trade for Jacoby they just can’t resist. Kelly  then steps in as the backup. I personally don’t believe he’s in their long term plans. 

You may be right about Kelly......

 

But..

 

I believe that they see something in the kid

 

They saw him in camp, and in practice this year... They have observed him away from the field

 

They had a HUGE opportunity, during the year, to just cut the guy

 

They needed the roster spot as we had a pile of injured players

 

But...... they used it on Chad Kelly

 

I would LOVE to see the Colts bring in a rookie QB.... let them compete for the backup role with CK.......

 

Another way to look at it..... JB is in the way, so to speak, of giving developmental snaps to a potential future starter

 

 

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28 minutes ago, IkeAramba said:

Realistically there are three options because of the percentage of the cap tied up with Rivers and Brissett:

 

1) Rivers, Brissett, Kelly - Brissett released next offseason

2) Rivers, Brissett, Kelly/draftee - developmental QB competes for the third string slot with Kelly, likely to be a 3rd round pick or later

3) Rivers, draftee, Kelly - if somebody trades for Brissett we may pick a QB in round 2 or 3

 

Can't see any other likely scenarios and still think option 1 is the most likely.

 

How we proceed next offseason depends on how Rivers does, if he does well we'll try to retain him, if not we are probably looking at a first or second day pick next year.

We paid a bonus for Brissett that was 1/3 of his annual cap hit

 

He is now, not as expensive for a team trade.

 

Maybe we get a 5th or 6th........  I would TAKE IT

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