[PFF] The PFF Analytics Mock Draft 1.0

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So... this is the mock of the analytics department of PFF. It's different than their regular analysts mocks. There are a ton of off-the-wall picks that you don't see in many drafts and they are analytics-driven. They explain their reasoning in the article you can find here along with the mock:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-the-pff-analytics-mock-draft-1-0

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The PFF Analytics Mock Draft 1.0

 

This is the mock that your general manager told you not to worry about because there is no way that your GM will pass up the generational run-stuffing interior lineman that you so desperately need in order to go from five wins to the Super Bowl. If you're looking for a running back in the first round, you might as well just exit right now, and while one of us was a run-blocking tight end in college, our ilk will be greatly disappointed in us if they wanted to see the next Kyle Brady on this list.

 

Let's explain the methodology. We're not trading any picks and we're not attempting to predict what will actually happen (we'll give our opinion on some draft props later). We're simply giving the players who we think should be taken in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. How are we making the picks? (Insert snide, witty comments here) We are relying primarily on two components:

 

1. Positional value: Our goal isn't to pick the eventual Rookie of the Year; it's to win a Super Bowl. Saquon Barkley is awesome at his job, but his job doesn't contribute to winning nearly as much as that of his quarterback. Players who impact the passing game have the most value, and that is reflected here.

 

2. Our college-to-pro projections: We take into account how each player grades in different situations in college and train algorithms to project performance into a set of NFL situations. We also take into account the prospects' athletic profiles with respect to each facet of play. Here is a more in-depth look at these projections for stud playmaker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson, for example.

 

We also consider team needs when there is a close call between two equally valuable picks. However, football is a war of attrition, so the need is abundant for most teams. Prepare your trigger fingers. Let's mock.

 

 

You can see the full mock on the link above but here's the Colts' pick:

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13. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS — WR LAVISKA SHENAULT, COLORADO

EE: With Eric Ebron leaving and 2019 draft pick Parris Campbell a bit slow to come on as a complement to T.Y. Hilton, the Colts are in need of a receiver who can play a very effective No. 2 role but can still have games in which he puts up No. 1-like numbers — a player like Robert Woods of the Los Angeles Rams, for example. Luckily, Woods is one of Shenault's comps at the next level.

 

 

[Defjamz26]

I know it’s analytics based but that’s awful. Shenault isn’t a top 15 player.

[danlhart87]

What an absolutely horrendous pick

[Thunderbolt]

No dice! Focus on the QB.

[chad72]

Every time I hear Laviska Shenault, for some reason, I am reminded Mike Myers saying "Mariska Hargitay" in The Love Guru 

[FalseStart]

They had us selecting this guy at one point too...

[EastStreet]

They need to either update their analytics, or the geeks building them.

 

And it goes against some of their other stuff they put out this last weekend. JB  worst in the league in terms of uncatchable passes, and worst in the league in clean pocket passer rating. Wouldn't their analytics tell them to take a QB instead of a very questionable WR.

[Cynjin]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

They need to either update their analytics, or the geeks building them.

 

And it goes against some of their other stuff they put out this last weekend. JB  worst in the league in terms of uncatchable passes, and worst in the league in clean pocket passer rating. Wouldn't their analytics tell them to take a QB instead of a very questionable WR.

 

I would agree with you, unless their analytics say that the QBs, other than Burrow & Tua, are not going to be very good pros.

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12 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

They need to either update their analytics, or the geeks building them.

 

And it goes against some of their other stuff they put out this last weekend. JB  worst in the league in terms of uncatchable passes, and worst in the league in clean pocket passer rating. Wouldn't their analytics tell them to take a QB instead of a very questionable WR.

They don't like any QB but Tua and Burrow in the first. Their projections don't like Herbert and Love(their projections don't show them as NFL starters so they say they would prefer a starter at WR(or other positions) over a player that's not going to play). For Love it's understandable since the projections are stat-based and he didn't have the best season, but I'm a bit surprised by Herbert not making R1. 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

They don't like any QB but Tua and Burrow in the first. Their projections don't like Herbert and Love(their projections don't show them as NFL starters so they say they would prefer a starter at WR(or other positions) over a player that's not going to play). For Love it's understandable since the projections are stat-based and he didn't have the best season, but I'm a bit surprised by Herbert not making R1. 

Thanks. Haven't had a chance to read it yet, but it's on my list this evening :-)

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6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Thanks. Haven't had a chance to read it yet, but it's on my list this evening :-)

They explain more in their podcasts/videos on youtube.

 

This is the episode of their analytics podcast/show where they talk about it(they start talking about their mock about half-way through 28:00?):

 

 

One of their analytics guys was a guest on their draft podcast/show too and he explained some of their picks: