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[Rollins] Justin Herbert is the Next NFL Draft BUST

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I agree he’ll be a bust. I like Jordan Love better, but only if he gets a full year to learn to read defenses and improve upon his pocket presence. 

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19 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Thanks for the video. Agree 100%. Been telling people he'll bust for about a month now. Rollins explained it better than I could.

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Also, heard Herbert enjoys snowboarding in his free time. 
 

That’s a red flag for me. 

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19 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Thanks for the video. Agree 100%. Been telling people he'll bust for about a month now. Rollins explained it better than I could.

For the record I do NOT agree. A big problem with such broad declarative statements is that Rollins takes him for what he is and doesn't seem to allow for any development. Those are young players with weaknesses that can be worked on and improved and their ability to improve on various areas of their game is what will determine if they become busts or not. 

 

I think Herbert is a prospect with high level traits that needs work, just like most highly drafted players that come into the league. 

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With Frank and the way he wants to play football, with this O-line and running game, there's a low chance he would be a bust.  If  a few plays go differently, they make the playoffs with Brissett.  Herbert is considerably more talented than Brissett.  

 

In the wrong locale, practically any QB could be a bust, but with Frank scheming things up and Ballard providing the framework, it's unlikely.  

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16 minutes ago, Superfly said:

 

Also, heard Herbert enjoys snowboarding in his free time. 
 

That’s a red flag for me. 

Brady likes to jump off cliffs...is that a red flag?

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8 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Brady likes to jump off cliffs...is that a red flag?


Bad comparison! 

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9 minutes ago, stitches said:

For the record I do NOT agree. A big problem with such broad declarative statements is that Rollins takes him for what he is and doesn't seem to allow for any development. Those are young players with weaknesses that can be worked on and improved and their ability to improve on various areas of their game is what will determine if they become busts or not. 

 

I think Herbert is a prospect with high level traits that needs work, just like most highly drafted players that come into the league. 

Fair enough. However, players with his specific sort of skills in college have ended up being busts. It's a guessing game with development and a limited sample size, but history says his bust chances are high. I'd rather have Burrow, Love or Gordon. Tua too, but he scares me because of injury concerns, not because of his ability to play football.

 

Honestly, I have Herbert rated below Eason with Fromm. Not every QB will hit. Would you bet your GM job on Herbert being the one? That might be the case with Ballard if he busts.

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25 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Fair enough. However, players with his specific sort of skills in college have ended up being busts. It's a guessing game with development and a limited sample size, but history says his bust chances are high. I'd rather have Burrow, Love or Gordon. Tua too, but he scares me because of injury concerns, not because of his ability to play football.

 

Honestly, I have Herbert rated below Eason with Fromm. Not every QB will hit. Would you bet your GM job on Herbert being the one? That might be the case with Ballard if he busts.

 

I'd rather bet my job on Herbert than on Jacoby or most QBs that come into the draft every year. But fair enough. If you don't like him better than Gordon or Eason or Fromm, it's natural to not bet on him. 

 

I guess... with where we are likely to be drafting in the next several years, I kind of don't feel like it will be easy to be in position to draft the premier talent that has no or few warts. In the teens and twenties you are always going to be drafting players with question marks, especially QBs. At some point Ballard will have to make his bet and it won't be anywhere close to a surefire pick. He will just have to evaluate what the QB brings and what our coaching staff can develop in him from what he's missing. 

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

 

I'd rather bet my job on Herbert than on Jacoby or most QBs that come into the draft every year. But fair enough. If you don't like him better than Gordon or Eason or Fromm, it's natural to not bet on him. 

 

I guess... with where we are likely to be drafting in the next several year, I kind of don't feel like it will be easy to be in position to draft the premier talent that has no or few warts. In the teens and twenties you are always going to be drafting players with question marks, especially QBs. At some point Ballard will have to make his bet and it won't be anywhere close to a surefire pick. He will just have to evaluate what the QB brings and what our coaching staff can develop in him from what he's missing. 

I would rather bet on Herbert than Brissett, but as an armchair GM, all I can do is watch the tape and look at his type historically. I've seen this song and dance before and want no part of it.

 

Andrew Luck's personality without the football ability, that's just scary lol.

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Put me on the list of Herbert NOT busting

 

The kid has all the needed physical tools AND is smart

 

Is he a lock?........ Nope

 

Is he a safer pick than ALL of the other QBs not named Tua or Burrows?

 

YES

 

Love has a higher ceiling, but he is riskier to bust 

 

 

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Players don’t bust when they go to the right team/scheme fit, don’t have injuries, and keep their head on straight off the field. As Chris Carter once said “Less than 5 players in the NFL could be good anywhere. They’re all system players” The whole thing is worth watching but go to the 4:25 second mark 

 


This is especially true of QBs. They have to go to the right situation. That’s why I’m not really scared of Herbert or Love busting with us.

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I think with his IQ and his athletic skills he will be fine. The only reason I want Love over Herbert is Love throws with anticipation. Herbert doesn’t have a knack for that. He seems to need guys open to throw to them. That could make it difficult for him in the NFL. Sounds a lot like Brissett.

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25 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Put me on the list of Herbert NOT busting

 

The kid has all the needed physical tools AND is smart-agreed

 

Is he a lock?........ Nope-agreed

 

Is he a safer pick than ALL of the other QBs not named Tua or Burrows?

 

YES-NO! LOL. There's nothing safe about Herbert, he's an absolute project. Can't read defenses, can't read coverages, never taken a snap under Center. He'll have to sit a year minimum.

 

Love has a higher ceiling, but he is riskier to bust Love has a much higher ceiling and floor. He was surrounded by inferior talent in Utah State and lost his entire offense and coaching staff last year. Love can't overcome an inferior college team. He'll do better in the NFL because the talent will allow him too succeed. He's already that good.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Can't read defenses, can't read coverages

Interesting that you say this.  NFL.com and Walter Football both say the opposite.

 

NFL.com:

Quote

Big, talented full-field scanner able to find the right read and sling it around the yard from the pocket or on the move....He trusts his protection while working through coverages and route development

 

Walter Football:

Quote

Strengths:

Field vision

Good decision-making

 

At the same time, the video and NFL.com say he needs to improve his touch on his throws whereas Walter Football says "On top of power, Herbert shows a nice ability to loft in touch passes and throw receivers open"

 

Three different sources say three different (sometimes contradictory) things about the same prospect.  That's why evaluating prospects and scouting is so difficult and is more an art than a science.  At the end of the day, the only important thing is how Ballard, the scouts, and the coaches feel about him.

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9 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

Interesting that you say this.  NFL.com and Walter Football both say the opposite.

 

NFL.com:

 

Walter Football:

 

At the same time, the video and NFL.com say he needs to improve his touch on his throws whereas Walter Football says "On top of power, Herbert shows a nice ability to loft in touch passes and throw receivers open"

 

Three different sources say three different (sometimes contradictory) things about the same prospect.  That's why evaluating prospects and scouting is so difficult and is more an art than a science.  At the end of the day, the only important thing is how Ballard, the scouts, and the coaches feel about him.

Fair enough, I disagree. Would any mainstream site actually rate a projected first-round pick as a possible bust? Of course not. They all say each one is a hit. It's not until the third round where sites will have differing opinions. Half of the first round will bust, and everyone will wonder why. Herbert is the top guy to bust, said it for a month.

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2 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

 

You quoted me with an absolute. You quoted me with an “LOL”

 

I have had no personal experience  with Herbert, I bet you don’t either.

 

There are 32 teams that have scouting departments that interview players and watch hours and hours of tape.

 

Much more hours of tape than you and I do. And.... I guarantee you more than the writer of the article

 

They are trained to sniff out busts..... and THEY get it wrong on QBs at least 50%

 

MOST people view Herbert as a  decent pro prospect. Not blue chip, not a lock, but someone that they would take a chance on

 

I can’t predict what the weather will be tomorrow 

 

I bet you can’t either 

 

Be careful with the absolutes........ 

 

Be careful hearing one or two opinions and making it your own

(sort of like buying stocks)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In a normal year I could see Ballard drafting a QB at 13 or maybe even moving up to get one but this is not a normal year.  With the exception of Burrows all of the other QBs have question marks.  Many of them could bust.  With all of the veteran QB options out there I would think Ballard would be more inclined to try to acquire a veteran that could step right in and be an improvement over JB.  I am still having a hard time seeing Ballard spending big money on Rivers for one or two years.  I could see him trying to trade for Carr, Stafford or Foles to name a few.  Or signing Bridgewater, Tannehill or Mariotta at a more reasonable cost.  And the way they handled CK last year tells me they like him a lot too.  Some how I don't see Ballard getting caught up in a QB drafting frenzy when the draft arrives.  I still think it's more likely he goes the veteran path and not the older QB either.  He is so frugal as we know.  In any event we should have a better handle on the veteran path pretty soon.  

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16 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

In a normal year I could see Ballard drafting a QB at 13 or maybe even moving up to get one but this is not a normal year.  With the exception of Burrows all of the other QBs have question marks.  Many of them could bust.  With all of the veteran QB options out there I would think Ballard would be more inclined to try to acquire a veteran that could step right in and be an improvement over JB.  I am still having a hard time seeing Ballard spending big money on Rivers for one or two years.  I could see him trying to trade for Carr, Stafford or Foles to name a few.  Or signing Bridgewater, Tannehill or Mariotta at a more reasonable cost.  And the way they handled CK last year tells me they like him a lot too.  Some how I don't see Ballard getting caught up in a QB drafting frenzy when the draft arrives.  I still think it's more likely he goes the veteran path and not the older QB either.  He is so frugal as we know.  In any event we should have a better handle on the veteran path pretty soon.  

Huh. This year is no different. Colt fans are just spoiled and don’t want a QB Unless they have the number one pick. 5 QB might go in the first round. That is more then the usual.

 

If Ballard loves one of these top 4 QB especially Love or Herbert he will do what it takes to try and get them. He would rather go this route then a veteran. He wants his own. If he doesn’t get Love or Herbert that means he didn’t like them enough to move up or spend the 13 pick on them. Or somebody beat us to them.

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Huh. This year is no different. Colt fans are just spoiled and don’t want a QB Unless they have the number one pick. 5 QB might go in the first round. That is more then the usual.

 

If Ballard loves one of these top 4 QB especially Love or Herbert he will do what it takes to try and get them. He would rather go this route then a veteran. He wants his own. If he doesn’t get Love or Herbert that means he didn’t like them enough to move up or spend the 13 pick on them. Or somebody beat us to them.

Huh.  It's ridiculous the number of veteran FA QBs that are available this year as well as the number that could be available in trade.  That's not normal.  There are always QBs drafted early every year.  That's what's normal.  Now that I know that Ballard has told you that he would rather draft a rookie than obtain a veteran I guess we can all thank you for your inside information.  lol

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2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Huh.  It's ridiculous the number of veteran FA QBs that are available this year as well as the number that could be available in trade.  That's not normal.  There are always QBs drafted early every year.  That's what's normal.  Now that I know that Ballard has told you that he would rather draft a rookie than obtain a veteran I guess we can all thank you for your inside information.  lol

Ballard has always talked about building within. His first choice will always be to draft a QB to groom. Now he might go get a guy like Rivers to help groom a kid.  The only way he goes after a guy like Carr is going to be if he doesn’t like the QB in the draft.  Just listen to ballard. He tells you what he thinks and he clearly wants to build a team from within from the draft.

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 All of these QB's have flaws (except for Burrow who's main flaw is doing it only 1 season) , which is why I don't advocate for trading up for one .  But IMHO, Herbert is no more bust potential than Love.

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So let me get this straight. Bright kid, not a single character issue, born leader, all the physical tools, strong and accurate arm, 4.6 speed, a 4:1 td to int ratio. Yea that screams bust to me. :facepalm:

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Another stat that I didn’t see till today

 

Counting games against top 25 college teams the past 2 years Herbert is 5-2 Love is 0-4 in same time period 

 

Love may end up being better in the long run than Herbert but don’t discount Herbert as a NFL prospect

 

just remember it’s a crap shoot

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First, it takes a lot of guts to put your name out there with film study and extrapolate to Herbert being a potential bust here. Lots of analysts do play it safe and no one likes people that sway to the extremes (though our country loves it for its leaders, go figure) for the fear of being totally wrong. So, I will give props to Alex Rollins here. Like a poster said in the comments "this video would either be infamous or legendary". 

 

One thing he is right about is throwing with anticipation. That is what got Baker Mayfield drafted No.1, his ability to anticipate Mark Andrews and other guys he threw to at Oklahoma. Throwing with anticipation is a BIG part of playing QB, and another guy I'd like Alex Rollins to review on that front would be Anthony Gordon, who does a very good job there. It is a 50-50 shot, getting your QB right, when you are picking outside the Top 2, IMO. However, with the not so burdensome rookie contracts, we do have recourse to cut bait in 2-3 years, should things not turn out the way we want it while still building a solid team.

 

Herbert may be OK, may be great, but he looked pretty darn good to me in all his drills. But then, JaMarcus Russell did as well, however he did play prior to 2011 when Cam Newton was the first QB drafted under the new rookie contract rules. That is also the incentive for rookie QBs to work their tail off to prove their worth because they haven't proved anything yet. I think the circumstances are different enough for rookie QBs nowadays that teams are not trying to put square pegs into round holes and trying to tailor offenses towards the QB's strengths, so chances are Herbert will be drafted into a situation that accentuates his strengths, same for most rookie QBs. No QB, including veteran QBs, are without flaws, and everyone has to work to improve on something every year in their NFL career. 

 

In other words, current rookie QBs have a greater chance for being average and not elite, than being a bust. Work ethic and exorbitant rookie contracts played a big part in Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell being busts. Actually, it does the rookie QB a favor if they are drafted outside the Top 10, IMO, because chances are, they are going to a good enough team. 

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On 3/8/2020 at 6:49 AM, stitches said:

 

 

 

Its a small sample size. I'm not ready to crown this guy a bust yet. Didn't people say the same thing about Wentz? Wentz has an All Pro on his resume. 

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4 hours ago, chad72 said:

First, it takes a lot of guts to put your name out there with film study and extrapolate to Herbert being a potential bust here. Lots of analysts do play it safe and no one likes people that sway to the extremes (though our country loves it for its leaders, go figure) for the fear of being totally wrong. So, I will give props to Alex Rollins here. Like a poster said in the comments "this video would either be infamous or legendary". 

 

 

 

The Goal of articles is to get read.......

 

The vast majority of articles are positive about Herbert.......

 

To even be opened.....  an article must be against the grain, or say something different than the herd....

 

Would this even get a thread, if it were another positive article?

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Love people playing the guessing game and masking it with their "expert" analysis. Just because you may have called busts or gems in the past doesn't mean you have any idea what you're talking about. It's a guess that even the professionals get right only a fraction of the time. 

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3 minutes ago, TheMose said:

Love people playing the guessing game and masking it with their "expert" analysis. Just because you may have called busts or gems in the past doesn't mean you have any idea what you're talking about. It's a guess than even the professionals get right only a fraction of the time. 

 

I wish I could like this post a thousand times.

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On 3/8/2020 at 12:26 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

Fair enough, I disagree. Would any mainstream site actually rate a projected first-round pick as a possible bust? Of course not. They all say each one is a hit. It's not until the third round where sites will have differing opinions. Half of the first round will bust, and everyone will wonder why. Herbert is the top guy to bust, said it for a month.

 

To be fair Walterfootball usually closer to the draft comes out with a list at every position which includes a "most likely to bust" category.  

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33 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

To be fair Walterfootball usually closer to the draft comes out with a list at every position which includes a "most likely to bust" category.  

Yeah someone here turned me on to them, so I will be following what they have to say about the draft picks since they have been right the most of late.  What I don't know is how they have done with their bust list.  Anybody know?

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25 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

Yeah someone here turned me on to them, so I will be following what they have to say about the draft picks since they have been right the most of late.  What I don't know is how they have done with their bust list.  Anybody know?

I don't agree with Walters sometimes, but I give them credit for seeing things their way, rather than restating what everyone else is writing. They are definitely not cookie cutter journalism. 

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On 3/8/2020 at 10:52 AM, Jared Cisneros said:

Fair enough. However, players with his specific sort of skills in college have ended up being busts. It's a guessing game with development and a limited sample size, but history says his bust chances are high. I'd rather have Burrow, Love or Gordon. Tua too, but he scares me because of injury concerns, not because of his ability to play football.

 

Honestly, I have Herbert rated below Eason with Fromm. Not every QB will hit. Would you bet your GM job on Herbert being the one? That might be the case with Ballard if he busts.

Are you referring to their college careers as the limited sample size? If so, wasnt Herbert a 3-4 year starter? Compared to Burrow who really had 1? 

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On 3/8/2020 at 8:06 AM, BProland85 said:

I agree he’ll be a bust. I like Jordan Love better, but only if he gets a full year to learn to read defenses and improve upon his pocket presence. 

I get it that Herbert may bust.  However if u think Hetbert can bust how can u not think Love has a higher percentage of busting than Herbert,??? Love has way more question marks.

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22 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

Yeah someone here turned me on to them, so I will be following what they have to say about the draft picks since they have been right the most of late.  What I don't know is how they have done with their bust list.  Anybody know?

 

Actually he just QB's and WR's!

 

https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2020positionreview.php

 

Cool thing is that he keeps a running track of what he said so you can review it.

 

For QB's he put Love as the most likely to bust.

 

Previously he has had

 

2019. Murray

2018. Rudolph

2017. Trubinski

2016 Cook

2015 Hundley

2014 Manziel

2013 Glennon

 

Oddly enough in 2017 he put Mahomes as the safest QB pick.  

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19 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

Actually he just QB's and WR's!

 

https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2020positionreview.php

 

Cool thing is that he keeps a running track of what he said so you can review it.

 

For QB's he put Love as the most likely to bust.

 

Previously he has had

 

2019. Murray

2018. Rudolph

2017. Trubinski

2016 Cook

2015 Hundley

2014 Manziel

2013 Glennon

 

Oddly enough in 2017 he put Mahomes as the safest QB pick.  

Here are their bust predictions on offense:

2014 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2014bustsoffense.php

2015 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2015bustsoffense.php

2016 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2016bustsoffense.php

2017 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2017bustsoffense.php

2018 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2018bustsoffense.php

2019 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2019bustsoffense.php

 

 

And their defensive picks for busts:

2014 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2014bustsdefense.php

2015 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2015bustsdefense.php

2016 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2016bustsdefense.php

2017 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2017bustsdefense.php

2018 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2018bustsdefense.php

2019 - https://walterfootball.com/draft2019bustsdefense.php

 

 

They have some nice hits(Johnny Manziel, Mariota), but they also have some bad misses like Deshaun Watson being their QB pick to bust in 2017. I kind of don't consider R3 or later QB picks as busts, simply because the expected hit rate for those is low to begin with and I consider most of them flyers or taking wild shots at the position. 

 

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I disagree with this take. I very well maybe the only one here that thinks Herbert will be a better pro than Burrow. 

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2 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

Actually he just QB's and WR's!

 

https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2020positionreview.php

 

Cool thing is that he keeps a running track of what he said so you can review it.

 

For QB's he put Love as the most likely to bust.

 

Previously he has had

 

2019. Murray

2018. Rudolph

2017. Trubinski

2016 Cook

2015 Hundley

2014 Manziel

2013 Glennon

 

Oddly enough in 2017 he put Mahomes as the safest QB pick.  

Not too bad on the QB's.  The only one so far that would be a miss would be Murray but the jury is still out on him.

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