Talented QB or NON-QB Blue Chip player at a position of need? And go...

[FalseStart]

8 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

In the 3rd or 4th? are you kidding?

 

I'm assuming you want us to get rivers carr or brady?

I am happy to eat crow come May... I think JB will be better in 2020. I think Ballard and Reich like what he can do...just need to see more. FA is an option for sure... But our team needs another year to acquire quality depth. 2021 is the year to draft a replacement... Unless a quality FA is there for the taking...IMO...

[FalseStart]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

 

I agree there is balance to strike because at some point prioritizing QBs becomes overvaluing them. To me that point is not as simple as "is this player better than that player", though. A better receiver might give you worse value than a worse QB. Lets simplify this to the highest degree possible(this is not the reality of how the distribution of outcomes is, but for the sake of this discussion lets assume it goes something like this):

 

Lets assume Lamb has 60% of becoming a pro-bowler and 40% of becoming a bust(nothing in between for simplicity sake)

Lets assume Love has 50% chance of becoming a pro-bowler and 50% of becoming a bust(nothing in between for simplicity sake)

 

Who would you choose? To me the answer is clear as day - it's Love and it's not close. Because in the 50% of cases he becomes a pro-bowler he will return much more value than in the 60% of the cases Lamb becomes a pro-bowler. Pro-bowl receivers return about 1.0-1.2 WAR in the league. A pro-bowl QB returns 2.5-3.5 WAR. The 10% bust difference just cannot compensate for more than twice or three times the value a QB returns in his pro-bowl seasons compared to a WR. There is significant difference in positional value that might make you draft the worse player and still get better value. Now this is not the be all of stats so take with a grain of salt, but for illustration purposes it does the job. 

 

At some point of course the value of a worse QB becomes too low to pick above a better WR(or other position player). If you expect Love to turn into a pro-bowler just 5-10% of the cases, then by all means go with the better player. I'm not sure where exactly those values intersect paths, but that's why I use the caveat in all my discussions about QBs "if Ballard likes/loves a QB and thinks he can be a franchise QB". To me this caveat simply means - if Ballard thinks there is reasonable chance the guy can be a franchise QB. You don't draft Love or Herbert or whoever QB if you don't like him or don't think he can be a high level player in the league. 

 

No, the same cannot be said about 1st round QBs. 1st round QBs have much higher success rate than later round QBs. And yes, they can bust and they do bust but they bust about as often as any other position in the first round(in the general range of 50%). 

I’m taking BPA at a position of need to have a better team in 2020... Any drafted QB is going to sit...would rather have a Jeudy, Lamb Etc...who would make us a better team next year. One more year to evaluate Brissett. Good Debate though...

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, stitches said:

To me it's shocking how many people casually go over the fact that QB is:

1. the most important position in football by a huge margin

2. our worst position(except for kicking, but hopefully that has been fixed)

3. one of the positions least likely to give you a franchise player late in the draft.

 

So the solution is - don't address QB high. Don't get FA upgrade. Instead - let JB play again... and draft a player that is overwhelmingly likely to bust. 

 

What am I missing? I really don't get the rationale people have. 

 

There is no position more likely to give huge upgrade for this team than QB. You can get pro-bowlers at 13, 34 and 44 and still not get the upgrade in play that a franchise QB will give you. 

Agreed. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone some times. I might understand a bit if JB had a huge college career and people thought he might just need time to adjust, but that's totally not the situation. Very average college career on a very average team, and still struggling with the same things. The ceiling just isn't there. Great guy by all accounts, just not a franchise level talent.

[ztboiler]

16 hours ago, stitches said:

As long as you love the QB and think he can be a franchise QB it's the QB every time. I've posted this before here - the value a QB produces is so much higher than what even the most elite of players at other positions provide that it's not really a question.

 

With that said - if you don't love any of the QBs in the draft... go get the best blue chip player you can get. 

People only talk about drafting talent above QB talent when they either already have an elite QB or presuppose that the QB available to draft will fail.

[AZColt11]

4 hours ago, ztboiler said:

People only talk about drafting talent above QB talent when they either already have an elite QB or presuppose that the QB available to draft will fail.

I'm squarely in that camp.  And why wouldn't I be?  If you look around at all of the websites and TV shows and then watch the tapes, you get a LOT of varying opinions and inconsistencies on the tapes.  I think what is scaring a lot of people like me off is the lack of cohesive opinions on these guys.  It seems very split on all but Burrow, and the problem with him (for me) is he only did it one season.  Any or all of these guys could go on to become studs, but would anybody here bet their mortgage money on it?  And if so, I'm curious to know what you are seeing or hearing that makes you so confident in them?

 

Do I hear or see the same inconsistencies about players like Derrick Brown or Isaiah Simmons or Jedrick Wills or Jeff Okudah?  No I don't.

[ztboiler]

5 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

I'm squarely in that camp.  And why wouldn't I be?  If you look around at all of the websites and TV shows and then watch the tapes, you get a LOT of varying opinions and inconsistencies on the tapes.  I think what is scaring a lot of people like me off is the lack of cohesive opinions on these guys.  It seems very split on all but Burrow, and the problem with him (for me) is he only did it one season.  Any or all of these guys could go on to become studs, but would anybody here bet their mortgage money on it?  And if so, I'm curious to know what you are seeing or hearing that makes you so confident in them?

 

Do I hear or see the same inconsistencies about players like Derrick Brown or Isaiah Simmons or Jedrick Wills or Jeff Okudah?  No I don't.

Right...so you presuppose failure, the prerogative of every decision maker...which necessitates drafting a player whereby you don’t suppose failure 

[AZColt11]

10 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Right...so you presuppose failure, the prerogative of every decision maker...which necessitates drafting a player whereby you don’t suppose failure 

Not really.  I just don't see the same percentage of success as someone like you.  That doesn't make either one of us right or wrong, it may just suggest more about our differing styles.  I would prefer someone with more likelihood of success THAT high in the draft, and you are willing to take more risk, which I fully admit could have more upside (or downside) depending on how it works out.

 

I see less risk in the players I mentioned than in a guy like Love.  Doesn't mean I don't like the guy or don't feel he can succeed.  Others like you will see it differently.  Nothing more than that.

 

I think this whole exercise says more about US than it probably does the players themselves. 

[ztboiler]

37 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

Not really.  I just don't see the same percentage of success as someone like you.  That doesn't make either one of us right or wrong, it may just suggest more about our differing styles.  I would prefer someone with more likelihood of success THAT high in the draft, and you are willing to take more risk, which I fully admit could have more upside (or downside) depending on how it works out.

 

I see less risk in the players I mentioned than in a guy like Love.  Doesn't mean I don't like the guy or don't feel he can succeed.  Others like you will see it differently.  Nothing more than that.

 

I think this whole exercise says more about US than it probably does the players themselves. 

All true

 

Not going to win a Super Bowl playing it safe at the QB position...but you can certainly assemble a competent playoff team if you draft and develop the rest of the team well.

 

Be interesting to see if it becomes Ballard’s Achilles heel or not.  Rolling the dice on a QB might be tough for one so principled.  I suspect we’ll learn a lot this off season.

[HerkeyHorseshoe]

Agree with what Stitches said 100%. JB is not the answer and am hoping Ballard sees something in drafting one of the available QBs. If not  I will be mightily disappointed but will  still root for whoever the QB is. Please Ballard make the right choice on our first round draft pick! Hopefully a future franchise QB!

 

[aaron11]

19 hours ago, FalseStart said:

Our kicking game was awful... we were at worst a 9-7 team... healthy JB, TY, etc...10-6. We got a good team. Just need to get 3 more BPAs at 13,34,44...go QB in third or fourth.

 

bpa wont win the division with the 30th ranked passing QB

 

we have a good rushing team but so does everyone else in the division, especially the titans 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wu36]

21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

3rd or 4th? lol... Why would you not want to try to immediately improve the worst performing unit (by far). JB has been average to bad his entire career since college and he's been in the league years now. He has the same exact deficiencies he had at NC State. You can't expect to win a NASCAR race with a 4 cylinder by adding new tires, new carb, spoiler, etc..  You might qualify, but you're never going to win it all.

 

I've asked this before, but I'll ask it again. Short of all the planets aligning in perfect harmony, please explain the path to win the Superbowl without making a legit move at QB (early draft or legit FA)

Who says Ballard loves any of these qbs to enough to follow your plan? 

[Moosejawcolt]

20 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Finding a way to get Love without losing so much draft capital is absolutely essential.

 

Getting him at 13 without losing any picks would be fantastic but if Love turns out as good as I expect him to be I would be fine even losing 21' 1st rounder in the process.

 

Do you think the Chiefs care they lost a 1st Rounder to the Bills for Mahomes?

 

No cause they just won a SB.

They went out got their guy no matter the cost and it paid off big time.

 

Have u scouted Love??

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, Wu36 said:

Who says Ballard loves any of these qbs to enough to follow your plan? 

And who says he doesn't lol.... There's certainly enough smoke with Ballard and scouts following QBs, and enough rumor about FA interests. Who knows what will happen, but there's a lot less folks that think we stand pat, than those that think we make a change. I doubt Ballard cares much about what people think in terms of running a team, but it is his job to care about tickets sales and fan interest. And that will factor into things.

[runthepost]

Don’t really get the hype on Love. He isn’t near Mahomes or Watson in terms of skill when they both came out. Reminds me of Blake Bortles more than anyone and has the same staring down a target that JB does.

[aaron11]

13 hours ago, Wu36 said:

Who says Ballard loves any of these qbs to enough to follow your plan? 

 

no way to know if he loves them or not, but we do know he has spent a lot of time watching love.  that tells me he is interested enough to draft him somewhere.  who knows where though 

[Wu36]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

And who says he doesn't lol.... There's certainly enough smoke with Ballard and scouts following QBs, and enough rumor about FA interests. Who knows what will happen, but there's a lot less folks that think we stand pat, than those that think we make a change. I doubt Ballard cares much about what people think in terms of running a team, but it is his job to care about tickets sales and fan interest. And that will factor into things.

Yes he does need to factor ticket sales and fan interest. I’m not sold on JB either. I just don’t see him being all in on Love while letting the entire league know.

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, Wu36 said:

Yes he does need to factor ticket sales and fan interest. I’m not sold on JB either. I just don’t see him being all in on Love while letting the entire league know.

I have zero clue if he's sold on Love or not. He's tracked him for a while though, so we know at least there's interest. 

[WifiGuy]

On 3/5/2020 at 1:05 AM, stitches said:

To me it's shocking how many people casually go over the fact that QB is:

1. the most important position in football by a huge margin

2. our worst position(except for kicking, but hopefully that has been fixed)

3. one of the positions least likely to give you a franchise player late in the draft.

 

So the solution is - don't address QB high. Don't get FA upgrade. Instead - let JB play again... and draft a player that is overwhelmingly likely to bust. 

 

What am I missing? I really don't get the rationale people have. 

 

There is no position more likely to give huge upgrade for this team than QB. You can get pro-bowlers at 13, 34 and 44 and still not get the upgrade in play that a franchise QB will give you. 

So here is my thoughts.   I don't think anyone is casually go over the fact about a QB. I know I am not .  Do we need an upgrade yes.

 

Is that upgrade available at 13?   If Burrow and Tua are gone I say no.  

 

I know a lot of you think Love is the answer, I don't.

 

Herbert, Maybe but doubt he will be there.

 

TBH my thinking is that Chad Kelly is as good as Love is and he is already on the team.  I am not a Chad Kelly to start fan either.  

 

So IMO there are 3 options.   

 

1. Bring in a FA like Rivers/Foles/Carr with JB as the backup cut Hoyer keep working on Kelly and draft BPA at 13 34 ad 44

 

2. Keep JB as the starter and draft Gordon in 2nd/3rd, Cut Kelly and draft BPA at 13 34 and hopefully 44.

 

3. Start JB  and see where he is at if he fails put in Kelly in.  The fans will get somewhat what they want and that is to see the wonder boy.  Keep Hoyer

 

 

Without the off season background stuff.   Tell me how Love is that much better than Kelly?

 

And also is Love at 13 worth more than Kelly and Okudah/Brown/Kinlaw/Jeudy at 13

 

I don't think anyone is saying the QB situation doesn't need addressed (maybe I'm wrong there) I think some just don't see the Love, Herbert as a franchise QB idea and don't want to draft a QB just for the sake of making a change.

[stitches]

51 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

So here is my thoughts.   I don't think anyone are casually go over the fact about a QB.  Do we need an upgrade yes.

 

Is that upgrade available at 13?   If Burrow and Tua are gone I say no.  

I'm just going to stop you here and ask you what do you mean by "upgrade available at 13"? Are you looking for immediate upgrade? Like... for the 2020 season? Because if you are looking for it in the draft you might not find it. It's very possible even the Tuas and Burrows of the world are not better QBs than Brissett right away. Rookie QBs are rarely great. This is NOT what the goal of drafting a QB is. You do NOT draft a QB for his rookie season... you draft him for the next 10-15 years hopefully. 

 

Quote

I know a lot of you think Love is the answer, I don't.

 

Herbert, Maybe but doubt he will be there.

 

TBH my thinking is that Chad Kelly is as good as Love is and he is already on the team.  I am not a Chad Kelly to start fan either.  

CK might be better player right now than Love. He's not better prospect and doesn't have a better chance to be a franchise QB. 

 

But if you don't like Love or Herbert or don't think they have reasonable chance of becoming a franchise QB, I understand that. The question is  -- if you don't think they have a good chance to be franchise players why do you think Anthony Gordon does? 

 

Quote

 

So IMO there are 3 options.   

 

1. Bring in a FA like Rivers/Foles/Carr with JB as the backup cut Hoyer and draft BPA at 13 34 ad 44

 

2. Keep JB as the starter and draft Gordon in 2nd/3rd, Cut Hoyer and draft BPA at 13 34 and hopefully 44.

 

3. Start JB  and see where he is at if he fails put in Kelly in.  The fans will get somewhat what they want and that is to see the wonder boy.  Cut Hoyer

 

IMO IF you don't like any of the QBs high in the draft, the best path is none of those 3. To me, we don't have a franchise QB right now and until we find one the priority no. 1 with no close second priority should be finding a franchise QB. My commentary on your options:

 

1. Rivers/Foles/Carr are not it IMO(for different reasons each of them). I don't mind Rivers/Foles/Carr as better than Jacoby bridge QBs with higher chance to get us to the playoffs while we find our franchise QB, though.

2. I don't mind Jacoby as a bridge starter either. I'd be good with drafting Gordon in the 3d... but this won't be with the expectation that he will be our franchise QB. This will be a wild shot at a QB. 

3. Sure... go for it. Hopefully it results in a high pick next year. 

 

Here's my preferred course of action if we don't like any of the QBs in this draft or can't get into position to draft the ones that we like - trade back for future picks. Or trade out of some picks for future picks. Until you acquire the next franchise QB, you need to stack up with assets that will help you get the future QB. I don't really care much about who starts next year either way. This is not important in the grand scheme of things... I would prefer we get a short-term upgrade, but it's not a deal breaker for me. It's much more important who's the QB for the next 10-15 years. 

 

 

Quote

 

Without the off season background stuff.   Tell me how Love is that much better than Kelly?

We've gone through this. I'm sorry I don't feel like repeating the same old things. You can search old posts where I've made the comparison. I don't think it's close. Love is a much better prospect. The chance of Kelly becoming a franchise QB is close to zero. The chance of Love becoming one is orders of magnitude higher. 

 

Quote

 

And also is Love at 13 worth more than Kelly and Okudah/Brown/Kinlaw/Jeudy at 13

If you think Love has a good chance of becoming a franchise QB - yes. By a ton! If not - no. That's why I've been saying Ballard should only draft him(or another QB) if he really likes him and thinks he can be a franchise QB and if not - he should go with BPA at another position or trade back. 

 

Quote

I don't think anyone is saying the QB situation doesn't need addressed (maybe I'm wrong there) I think some just don't see the Love, Herbert as a franchise QB idea and don't want to draft a QB just for the sake of making a change.

 

Fair enough. 

[WifiGuy]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

I'm just going to stop you here and ask you what do you mean by "upgrade available at 13"? Are you looking for immediate upgrade? Like... for the 2020 season? Because if you are looking for it in the draft you might not find it. It's very possible even the Tuas and Burrows of the world are not better QBs than Brissett right away. Rookie QBs are rarely great. This is NOT what the goal of drafting a QB is. You do NOT draft a QB for his rookie season... you draft him for the next 10-15 years hopefully. 

 

CK might be better player right now than Love. He's not better prospect and doesn't have a better chance to be a franchise QB. 

 

But if you don't like Love or Herbert or don't think they have reasonable chance of becoming a franchise QB, I understand that. The question is  -- if you don't think they have a good chance to be franchise players why do you think Anthony Gordon does? 

 

 

IMO IF you don't like any of the QBs high in the draft, the best path is none of those 3. To me, we don't have a franchise QB right now and until we find one the priority no. 1 with no close second priority should be finding a franchise QB. My commentary on your options:

 

1. Rivers/Foles/Carr are not it IMO(for different reasons each of them). I don't mind Rivers/Foles/Carr as better than Jacoby bridge QBs with higher chance to get us to the playoffs while we find our franchise QB, though.

2. I don't mind Jacoby as a bridge starter either. I'd be good with drafting Gordon in the 3d... but this won't be with the expectation that he will be our franchise QB. This will be a wild shot at a QB. 

3. Sure... go for it. Hopefully it results in a high pick next year. 

 

Here's my preferred course of action if we don't like any of the QBs in this draft or can't get into position to draft the ones that we like - trade back for future picks. Or trade out of some picks for future picks. Until you acquire the next franchise QB, you need to stack up with assets that will help you get the future QB. I don't really care much about who starts next year either way. This is not important in the grand scheme of things... I would prefer we get a short-term upgrade, but it's not a deal breaker for me. It's much more important who's the QB for the next 10-15 years. 

 

 

We've gone through this. I'm sorry I don't feel like repeating the same old things. You can search old posts where I've made the comparison. I don't think it's close. Love is a much better prospect. The chance of Kelly becoming a franchise QB is close to zero. The chance of Love becoming one is orders of magnitude higher. 

 

If you think Love has a good chance of becoming a franchise QB - yes. By a ton! If not - no. That's why I've been saying Ballard should only draft him(or another QB) if he really likes him and thinks he can be a franchise QB and if not - he should go with BPA at another position or trade back. 

 

 

Fair enough. 

I'll cut it short .  

 

I don't think Love will become a franchise QB.

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, WifiGuy said:

I'll cut it short .  

 

I don't think Love will become a franchise QB.

I’ll cut it short.

 

I know Brissett is not a franchise QB and would gladly take J. Love in the 1st Rd. 

[WifiGuy]

Just now, Superfly said:

I’ll cut it short.

 

I know Brissett is not a franchise QB and would gladly take J. Love in the 1st Rd. 

I never said JB was a franchise QB .    I see love as a RG3.    So I wouldn't waste a 13 pick on a QB that I didn't think would be the franchise QB.   Other ways to upgrade the position

[WifiGuy]

Just want to throw this out there for all of the Love supporters.

 

Chad Kelly > Jordan Love.   More passing yds per game, more TD's per game and more rushing yards per game.  And played a much harder schedule and he beat the big boys of college football. 

 

                                                      Chad Kelly                      Jordan Love

Pass Yards per game .                   254                                    239

Pass TD per gam                           1.85                                    1.66

INT per game .                               .81                                       .81

Passer Ratio .                                 150.5                                 138.1

 

Rushing  per game                        36                                        11

Rush TD per game                        .60                                       .23

 

 

Just saying .   There is a player on the team right now that is better than Love if he can keep his head on straight and keep his nose clean.  But that is the million dollar question.  Can he do it

 

[coltsfanatic24]

It always depends on what players are on the board.  If Jerry Juedy and Jordan  Love are on the board at 13 what would the Colts do?

 

This team obviously need a QB but we also need a #1 WR that can consistently get open and get first downs. It’s going to be very interesting to see if both Juedy and Love are there at 13 and what direction Ballard will go with. 

[Four2itus]

Lol at using one specific example as reasoning to trade up in the draft....like Mahomes. Hell, if one example works, why not wait till the 6th round and draft a Brady. Worked for the Patriots!

[WifiGuy]

37 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Lol at using one specific example as reasoning to trade up in the draft....like Mahomes. Hell, if one example works, why not wait till the 6th round and draft a Brady. Worked for the Patriots!

But but but Love won't be there in the 6th   we have to trade our next 5 1st rounders to make sure we get him

[FalseStart]

On 3/5/2020 at 6:33 PM, aaron11 said:

 

bpa wont win the division with the 30th ranked passing QB

 

we have a good rushing team but so does everyone else in the division, especially the titans 

 

 

 

 

 

It (30th ranked passing) almost won the division this year... special teams and injuries certainly cost us. Like Ballard said in his end of year interview... “I’m just * that I did not get this team enough quality depth.” He’s going BPA. 

[FalseStart]

3 hours ago, coltsfanatic24 said:

It always depends on what players are on the board.  If Jerry Juedy and Jordan  Love are on the board at 13 what would the Colts do?

 

This team obviously need a QB but we also need a #1 WR that can consistently get open and get first downs. It’s going to be very interesting to see if both Juedy and Love are there at 13 and what direction Ballard will go with. 

WR1 > QB4 every time...

[WifiGuy]

Just now, FalseStart said:

WR1 > QB4 every time...

Beautiful!!!!!  HAHAHA

[aaron11]

6 minutes ago, FalseStart said:

It (30th ranked passing) almost won the division this year... special teams and injuries certainly cost us. Like Ballard said in his end of year interview... “I’m just * that I did not get this team enough quality depth.” He’s going BPA. 

third place isnt almost winning it to me

 

 the texans and titans almost won a couple more games too for that matter

[CoachLite]

On 3/4/2020 at 11:05 PM, stitches said:

To me it's shocking how many people casually go over the fact that QB is:

1. the most important position in football by a huge margin

2. our worst position(except for kicking, but hopefully that has been fixed)

3. one of the positions least likely to give you a franchise player late in the draft.

 

So the solution is - don't address QB high. Don't get FA upgrade. Instead - let JB play again... and draft a player that is overwhelmingly likely to bust. 

 

What am I missing? I really don't get the rationale people have. 

 

There is no position more likely to give huge upgrade for this team than QB. You can get pro-bowlers at 13, 34 and 44 and still not get the upgrade in play that a franchise QB will give you. 

The term "best", as in Best Player Available, depends on context. Need is part of the context, as is scheme, strategy, fit, position impact, etc. It isn't just a hypothetical rating. Given all those variables, a team will develop a rating rubric to use as a guide - not a mandate.

[LockeDown]

These debates are fueled by the Jordan Love champions who just want to draft this particular guy. I have a hard time believing they would want to  trade up for Herbert or Eason the same way if Love were not in this draft. 

[FalseStart]

7 hours ago, LockeDown said:

These debates are fueled by the Jordan Love champions who just want to draft this particular guy. I have a hard time believing they would want to  trade up for Herbert or Eason the same way if Love were not in this draft. 

Might be a Russian Love BOT... ha

[FalseStart]

17 minute mark... gets interesting