Daniel Jeremiah Conference Call Before the 2020 NFL Combine

[stitches]

https://nflcommunications.com/Pages/NFL-Network-Analyst-Daniel-Jeremiah-2020-NFL-Scouting-Combine-Conference-Call----Transcript-and-Audio.aspx

 

Thought some people might enjoy it. 

 

I am just starting to listen, no idea if it will be good but if there is something interesting Colts related or QB related, etc. I will post later in the thread. 

 

-QBs for him - tons of ability in this group but also some question marks. 

-WRs and CBs are deep in this draft. Phenomenal WR class. RB class is good too. 

-mentions Colts as potential QB spot among Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers, Raiders, Colts, Bucs...

-Jake Fromm - very impressive in person, very mature, engaging, you can see why he won over the locker room. The concern - arm-strength - ball dies on some throws

-some teams think Andrew Thomas might be RT

-Adam Trautman, Harrison Bryant and Cole Kmet are his top 3 TEs. Brycen Hopkins - 4th-5th round grade, developmental prospect, too many drops and needs to be better blocking

-He seems to like Austin Jackson much better than most people I've read. Says he might jump up boards after the combine. 

-teams are all over the map with Jacob Eason. One team Jeremiah has heard from has him as their QB2.  Big arm, bad habbits - trying to wheel out and turns his back to the defense when pressured. Needs to be a bit more of a playmaker instead of just being pure thrower. Needs to create some plays and extend some plays. R1 or R2. 

-Derrick Brown - same grade as Chase Young... closest thing to Ndamukong Suh

- Kevin Bowen question "How would you handle the QB dilemma for the Colts with #13 and the 2 2nd round picks?" - DJ answer: "I would start by signing Philip Rivers and I would try to make a run at it in the next couple of years because I think they are pretty close. I think Rivers will come in and give them an upgrade. And then you are picking at 13... and I know there is so much depth at WR, but if I'm the Colts I would be awfully tempted and see a Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, Henry Ruggs... if one of those 3 guys were there I think I'd go and pull the trigger right there. Now you change your offense completely - you have a good OLine, you pair what you have outside with one of those 3 receivers and Phillip Rivers, I think you will have the chance to be a really fun offense to watch. Now you go second round and you have other directions you can go... at that point if there is a QB you like... a developmental QB... you can go that route or you can just go DT that has some real twitch and some upside that can rush. Neville Gallimore from Oklahoma would make some sense there, he has some twitch and real pass rush ability. Jordan Elliot from Missouri  is another name that can come into the mix, another guy that can rush inside. They are in a great spot, I'm just curious to see what they do with the QB position first and foremost. If they decide to stick with JB and want to go towards the draft... at that point and time Jordan Love ... I don't think he's ready to play right away, but man.... that is a huge upside pick. You got a chance to let him develop and have a huge payoff. 

[John Hammonds]

14 minutes ago, stitches said:

and I would try to make a run at it in the next couple of years because I think they are pretty close.

And that is the major question behind all of the other decisions.  Just how close are we?  Do we keep "building for the future"?  Or do we decide "the future is now, let's go all in"?

[richard pallo]

55 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

And that is the major question behind all of the other decisions.  Just how close are we?  Do we keep "building for the future"?  Or do we decide "the future is now, let's go all in"?

Which leads you to how will the Colts handle the QB situation.  DJ likes signing Rivers if we are going all in.  I would prefer trading for Carr.  That's why I'm hoping the Raiders sign Brady then at least we have the opportunity to try and get him.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

What he says about rivers and picking a WR at 13 like jeudy is really enticing. But if it doesn’t work and in two years you still don’t have a future QB it really wastes time.  This WR class is just so deep I just don’t see it if the QB Ballard loves is right there at 13. We can get a very good WR at 34.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Something else I was thinking about. I think if they sign Rivers that probably means they draft a QB.  If they want to make a run right now I think a trade for Carr is probably the better answer. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

And that is the major question behind all of the other decisions.  Just how close are we?  Do we keep "building for the future"?  Or do we decide "the future is now, let's go all in"?

IMO Ballard is not the type to really go "all in". He will try to sustain success over long period of time, he won't really sacrifice the long-term success for a 1 year shot. He's been trying to build that roster for the long-term and his decisions both in the draft and in FA support that. 

 

With that said I think we are closer than a lot of people give credit to this team. If we get good QB production and reasonable kicking we will be right back in the playoffs IMO. This was the best roster Luck was going to have and that's why it's such a shame he retired before he could realize this team's potential. I think we would have been a superbowl contender for the next several years had he stayed healthy and played at his regular level. 

[stitches]

here's the second half highlights:

 

-only information that comes out about Tua will be information teams want out. 

-teams are split about Herbert, some love him, some don't. DJ has Love ahead of Herbert. He thinks 2 QBs go between 5 and 7 and 1 QB goes between 12 and 14. 

-he thinks Henry Ruggs is in the mix for WR1. Says he's the closest thing to Tyreek Hill he's seen. 

[richard pallo]

38 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Something else I was thinking about. I think if they sign Rivers that probably means they draft a QB.  If they want to make a run right now I think a trade for Carr is probably the better answer. 

If they sign Rivers it most likely means they will sign a player that has a great chance to start at pick 13 even 34.  Since there is a good chance all the top QB prospects will be gone by pick 44 maybe Ballard doesn't pick a QB at all and goes with all field players in the draft and he rides it out with JB and Kelly behind Rivers.  Kelly is probably the better prospect behind the first 5 in the draft.  Just a thought.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

If they sign Rivers it most likely means they will sign a player that has a great chance to start at pick 13 even 34.  Since there is a good chance all the top QB prospects will be gone by pick 44 maybe Ballard doesn't pick a QB at all and goes with all field players in the draft and he rides it out with JB and Kelly behind Rivers.  Kelly is probably the better prospect behind the first 5 in the draft.  Just a thought.  

It all depends on how much he likes a QB. The dumbest move he can make is not taking a QB he is sold on.  You don’t delay it if sold. No one knows what next years draft brings. We have the extra pick this year to move up also. Rivers to me would only be brought in if they were going to draft a QB to be groomed. It doesn’t make sense to bring in a 38 yo QB and not be thinking of drafting a QB. If we trade for Carr that probably means he isn’t sold on a QB in the draft. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

29 minutes ago, stitches said:

here's the second half highlights:

 

-only information that comes out about Tua will be information teams want out. 

-teams are split about Herbert, some love him, some don't. DJ has Love ahead of Herbert. He thinks 2 QBs go between 5 and 7 and 1 QB goes between 12 and 14. 

-he thinks Henry Ruggs is in the mix for WR1. Says he's the closest thing to Tyreek Hill he's seen. 

That is some interesting stuff. I bet there will be teams that want TUA leaking stuff about how bad his medical is.  

 

I wont be shocked if Love goes before Herbert. He does things Herbert doesn’t do and has better anticipation and touch. Herbert still tries and guide the ball and thinks to much when throwing it. Love is just a natural. This is why we probably won’t get Love Lol.

[richard pallo]

18 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

It all depends on how much he likes a QB. The dumbest move he can make is not taking a QB he is sold on.  You don’t delay it if sold. No one knows what next years draft brings. We have the extra pick this year to move up also. Rivers to me would only be brought in if they were going to draft a QB to be groomed. It doesn’t make sense to bring in a 38 yo QB and not be thinking of drafting a QB. If we trade for Carr that probably means he isn’t sold on a QB in the draft. 

How many QBs do you think he is sold on in the draft?  It's common knowledge it's a weak class. Sold means he sees him as a Franchise QB prospect.  Could he be sold on just three or maybe four?  Out of 32 teams chances are many GMs who will have similar gradings because the class is so weak.  To me if he signs Rivers I can't see him moving up to take a QB.  Even taking one at 13.  If I'm Rivers I'm asking what are your plans to help me so we can win now? What are your backup QB plans?  I would want to know the answers before I signed.  Drafting a QB early instead of trying to get a starting caliber player would not be the answer I would be looking for.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

How many QBs do you think he is sold on in the draft?  It's common knowledge it's a weak class. Sold means he sees him as a Franchise QB prospect.  Could he be sold on just three or maybe four?  Out of 32 teams chances are many GMs who will have similar gradings because the class is so weak.  To me if he signs Rivers I can't see him moving up to take a QB.  Even taking one at 13.  If I'm Rivers I'm asking what are your plans to help me so we can win now? What are your backup QB plans?  I would want to know the answers before I signed.  Drafting a QB early instead of trying to get a starting caliber player would not be the answer I would be looking for.  

Well none of us know how many he is sold on. No it’s not common knowledge it’s a weak class. I actually think it’s a pretty good one and there are analysts that think so too. We aren’t privy to what they think. So all we can do is trust what they do as far as the QB situation. We are never going to get the number one or two pick. You can’t jusy keep passing on a QB because you don’t have the one it two pick. You will never find the guy if you do that.

 

We will get players in FA that will help right now and quicker then the draft.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

It all depends on how much he likes a QB. The dumbest move he can make is not taking a QB he is sold on.  You don’t delay it if sold. No one knows what next years draft brings. We have the extra pick this year to move up also. Rivers to me would only be brought in if they were going to draft a QB to be groomed. It doesn’t make sense to bring in a 38 yo QB and not be thinking of drafting a QB. If we trade for Carr that probably means he isn’t sold on a QB in the draft. 

No fans know what next years draft is like.   But NFL scouts do.  A year ago scouts had already pegged the 2020 wide receiver draft class as near historically good.  And they said offense was better than defense. 

All 32 teams have a feel for next year already.  Part of the job.  Sometimes it helps make decisions about the current year easier to make. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Well none of us know how many he is sold on. No it’s not common knowledge it’s a weak class. I actually think it’s a pretty good one and there are analysts that think so too. We aren’t privy to what they think. So all we can do is trust what they do as far as the QB situation. We are never going to get the number one or two pick. You can’t jusy keep passing on a QB because you don’t have the one it two pick. You will never find the guy if you do that.

 

We will get players in FA that will help right now and quicker then the draft.

ESPN recently had a story with the anonymous viewpoints of about 10-12 GMs.   A premium story so most here didn’t see it.

 

The view was this is not a great class of QBs.   It’s not a terrible class, but last years was much better.   And so was the 18 class as well.   This year, with what looks like only one sure Day One starter and the rest likely needing a redshirt year...   not so much. 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

ESPN recently had a story with the anonymous viewpoints of about 10-12 GMs.   A premium story so most here didn’t see it.

 

The view was this is not a great class of QBs.   It’s not a terrible class, but last years was much better.   And so was the 18 class as well.   This year, with what looks like only one sure Day One starter and the rest likely needing a redshirt year...   not so much. 

 

I will agree that it’s not a deep class. Once you get past five or six there isn’t much there. It’s not smart for Ballard to pass on a QB if he is sold and just say wait until next year. What if we are drafting lower and don’t have that extra high pick like this year.This is the year to draft a QB if he is sold on one this year. Every year he delays it.the core of the team is getting older. By getting one this year they would be ready in 2021. Wait until next year your probably wasting another year.

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I will agree that it’s not a deep class. Once you get past five or six there isn’t much there. It’s not smart for Ballard to pass on a QB if he is sold and just say wait until next year. What if we are drafting lower and don’t have that extra high pick like this year.This is the year to draft a QB if he is sold on one this year. Every year he delays it.the core of the team is getting older. By getting one this year they would be ready in 2021. Wait until next year your probably wasting another year.

I’m not disputing what you say here...   only the concept that nobody know anything about next year.   They do.

 

One other thing I meant to mention...  ESPN last week also put out a premium story about what to expect at the 2021 Combine.   And to the surprise of everyone, next years WR class also looks very, very good.  Perhaps not 2020 good,  but much better than one might expect.  It’s not often you get a great class at a position in back to back years.   It happens, but not that often.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I’m not disputing what you say here...   only the concept that nobody know anything about next year.   They do.

 

One other thing I meant to mention...  ESPN last week also put out a premium story about what to expect at the 2021 Combine.   And to the surprise of everyone, next years WR class also looks very, very good.  Perhaps not 2020 good,  but much better than one might expect.  It’s not often you get a great class at a position in back to back years.   It happens, but not that often.  

What if fields and Lawrence decide to stay their senior years. That is the thing that can’t be predicted.  You can have a idea what might be there but it’s just a guess. Everything is such a unknown next year as far as QB. We do know what’s there right now though in this draft.  I think after the draft we will get a better idea what Ballard was thinking if he selects  a QB in the first round when he holds his post draft presser.

 

I am so excited for the draft. We have so much money we can spend in FA and some very high draft picks. We should come out of it vastly improved even if we don’t take a QB. The only thing that will disappoint me is us signing rivers and not getting the future.

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, richard pallo said:

How many QBs do you think he is sold on in the draft?  It's common knowledge it's a weak class. Sold means he sees him as a Franchise QB prospect.  Could he be sold on just three or maybe four?  Out of 32 teams chances are many GMs who will have similar gradings because the class is so weak.  To me if he signs Rivers I can't see him moving up to take a QB.  Even taking one at 13.  If I'm Rivers I'm asking what are your plans to help me so we can win now? What are your backup QB plans?  I would want to know the answers before I signed.  Drafting a QB early instead of trying to get a starting caliber player would not be the answer I would be looking for.  

Weak? Have you compared it to the 5 previous years.

 

For the fun of it, let's gauge "good" by # of QBs taken in the first round. Depth is pretty irrelevant (beyond the 1st) as teams aren't looking for their franchise guy in the second and beyond (sure they'll take a shot at a developmental guy, but they aren't all in). And then, let's look at how they did last year ranking wise. I'll use PFF's ranking to keep it simple, listed in parens (JB was ranked 29th BTW)

 

2019- 3 first rounders, none performing in the top half of the league

Murray 1 (PFF25)

Jones 6 (PFF24)

Haskins 15 NR

 

2018 - 5 first rounders, on performing in the top half of league

Mayfield 1 (PFF18)

Darnold 3 (PFF28)

Allen 7 (PFF26)

Rosen 10 NR

Jackson 32 (PFF5)

 

2017 - 3 first rounders, 2 performing in top half and top 10 of league

Trubisky 2 (PFF27)

Mahomes 10 (PFF2)

Watson 12 (PFF9)

 

2016 - 3 first rounders, 1 barely performing in the top half of league

Goff 1 (PFF19)

Wentz 2 (PFF16)

Lynch 26

 

2015 - 2 first rounders, none performing in top half of league

Winston 1 (PFF21)

Mariotta 2

 

2020 will have at minimum 3 QBs (Burrow/Tua/Herber) taken in the 1st (probably 3 top 10), likely a 4th (Love) 1st rounder though, and possibly 5 or 6 (Eason and Fromm). And that's in a year with incredible talent in FA. So not sure I'd call it weak. It'll have as many or more QBs taken early as 4 out of 5 years, likely more.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If Love is the 4th QB taken in the top 15 I can easily see Eason also going before the end of the first round. Fromm is a wildcard. He could go to a team like NE. So 5 QB could go in the first and maybe 6. 

[WoolMagnet]

8 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

What he says about rivers and picking a WR at 13 like jeudy is really enticing. But if it doesn’t work and in two years you still don’t have a future QB it really wastes time.  This WR class is just so deep I just don’t see it if the QB Ballard loves is right there at 13. We can get a very good WR at 34.

Its starting to look like Fromm and Eason may be the best available at #13.  I could easily see Burrow, Tua, Herbert, and Love gone by #13.   A bummer on one hand, but pushes more top players, like WR and DT , down to us.

  I think he was saying Rivers is a 2 year (3 max) shot at a run.  He still expects a QB added , to develop, in 2020 or 2021 i would think.  
  If Ballard “loves” a QB at 13, i would think he does it, the problem is, theres gonna be a run, with trades.  You just get that feeling .

  

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Weak? Have you compared it to the 5 previous years.

 

For the fun of it, let's gauge "good" by # of QBs taken in the first round. Depth is pretty irrelevant (beyond the 1st) as teams aren't looking for their franchise guy in the second and beyond (sure they'll take a shot at a developmental guy, but they aren't all in). And then, let's look at how they did last year ranking wise. I'll use PFF's ranking to keep it simple, listed in parens (JB was ranked 29th BTW)

 

2019- 3 first rounders, none performing in the top half of the league

Murray 1 (PFF25)

Jones 6 (PFF24)

Haskins 15 NR

 

2018 - 5 first rounders, on performing in the top half of league

Mayfield 1 (PFF18)

Darnold 3 (PFF28)

Allen 7 (PFF26)

Rosen 10 NR

Jackson 32 (PFF5)

 

2017 - 3 first rounders, 2 performing in top half and top 10 of league

Trubisky 2 (PFF27)

Mahomes 10 (PFF2)

Watson 12 (PFF9)

 

2016 - 3 first rounders, 1 barely performing in the top half of league

Goff 1 (PFF19)

Wentz 2 (PFF16)

Lynch 26

 

2015 - 2 first rounders, none performing in top half of league

Winston 1 (PFF21)

Mariotta 2

 

2020 will have at minimum 3 QBs (Burrow/Tua/Herber) taken in the 1st (probably 3 top 10), likely a 4th (Love) 1st rounder though, and possibly 5 or 6 (Eason and Fromm). And that's in a year with incredible talent in FA. So not sure I'd call it weak. It'll have as many or more QBs taken early as 4 out of 5 years, likely more.

 

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Weak? Have you compared it to the 5 previous years.

 

For the fun of it, let's gauge "good" by # of QBs taken in the first round. Depth is pretty irrelevant (beyond the 1st) as teams aren't looking for their franchise guy in the second and beyond (sure they'll take a shot at a developmental guy, but they aren't all in). And then, let's look at how they did last year ranking wise. I'll use PFF's ranking to keep it simple, listed in parens (JB was ranked 29th BTW)

 

2019- 3 first rounders, none performing in the top half of the league

Murray 1 (PFF25)

Jones 6 (PFF24)

Haskins 15 NR

 

2018 - 5 first rounders, on performing in the top half of league

Mayfield 1 (PFF18)

Darnold 3 (PFF28)

Allen 7 (PFF26)

Rosen 10 NR

Jackson 32 (PFF5)

 

2017 - 3 first rounders, 2 performing in top half and top 10 of league

Trubisky 2 (PFF27)

Mahomes 10 (PFF2)

Watson 12 (PFF9)

 

2016 - 3 first rounders, 1 barely performing in the top half of league

Goff 1 (PFF19)

Wentz 2 (PFF16)

Lynch 26

 

2015 - 2 first rounders, none performing in top half of league

Winston 1 (PFF21)

Mariotta 2

 

2020 will have at minimum 3 QBs (Burrow/Tua/Herber) taken in the 1st (probably 3 top 10), likely a 4th (Love) 1st rounder though, and possibly 5 or 6 (Eason and Fromm). And that's in a year with incredible talent in FA. So not sure I'd call it weak. It'll have as many or more QBs taken early as 4 out of 5 years, likely more.

What are you trying to say?  You just listed 16 QBs drafted in the 1st rd. since 2015 and according to your analysis 4 are performing in the top half of the league and one of those is barely making it.  And that's your measure of being good being drafted in the 1st Rd.  And this year we are going to be blessed with 3 maybe 4 or 5 first rounders.  Sorry not excited.   So it looks like the odds are not looking good right now for a 1st rd pick this year.  If you believe your numbers that is.  I think it looks like we might be better off signing one of the incredibly talented FAs (your own words) or making a trade than REACHING for one of these rookies.  It looks like that's what GMs have been doing the last five years.  Reaching.  No thank you.  After looking at those numbers Kelly is starting to look pretty good as a developmental QB.  Maybe he could make it after all. 

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

 

What are you trying to say?  You just listed 16 QBs drafted in the 1st rd. since 2015 and according to your analysis 4 are performing in the top half of the league and one of those is barely making it.  And that's your measure of being good being drafted in the 1st Rd.  And this year we are going to be blessed with 3 maybe 4 or 5 first rounders.  Sorry not excited.   So it looks like the odds are not looking good right now for a 1st rd pick this year.  If you believe your numbers that is.  I think it looks like we might be better off signing one of the incredibly talented FAs (your own words) or making a trade than REACHING for one of these rookies.  It looks like that's what GMs have been doing the last five years.  Reaching.  No thank you.  After looking at those numbers Kelly is starting to look pretty good as a developmental QB.  Maybe he could make it after all. 

You commented that it was common knowledge that this was a weak class. Common knowledge to who, and compared to what?

 

You made a very anecdotal and subjective comment, so I put some objective criteria around it. Based on number of QBs expected to go in the 1st, it will be one of the stronger classes. Call it reaching or whatever you want, but frankly all players at all positions have risk in the draft. 42% of QBs taken in the 1st round experience a pro-bowl year, and 40% of QBs taken in the 1st round are "busts" (link to 25 year study below). And then you have that 18ish% in the middle. 

 

In short, drafting a QB should be know different than drafting other positions. If your left tackle is bad (bottom 3rd), do you not address it in the draft because you're afraid of a bust? No, you scout, and make the most educated decision you can. If Ballard is good, he's capable of picking the right 42%. Even 42% is probably better odds than JB suddenly being able to make progressions, pre-snap reads, and be accurate.

 

Also, the FA class of QBs has been the talk of just about every mainstream sports show/site. If you disagree, please feel free to list all the years in the last 10 that were better.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

If Love is the 4th QB taken in the top 15 I can easily see Eason also going before the end of the first round. Fromm is a wildcard. He could go to a team like NE. So 5 QB could go in the first and maybe 6. 

 

Just a few more "maybe's" and you'll quickly have all 32 teams taking a QB in the first round!

 

[Hoose]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Just a few more "maybe's" and you'll quickly have all 32 teams taking a QB in the first round!

 

Ha! I can see Eason sneaking into the first round. Not Fromm. 

[indykmj]

17 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Ha! I can see Eason sneaking into the first round. Not Fromm. 

 

  Not sure that Fromm even goes in the 2nd....

[richard pallo]

7 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You commented that it was common knowledge that this was a weak class. Common knowledge to who, and compared to what?

 

You made a very anecdotal and subjective comment, so I put some objective criteria around it. Based on number of QBs expected to go in the 1st, it will be one of the stronger classes. Call it reaching or whatever you want, but frankly all players at all positions have risk in the draft. 42% of QBs taken in the 1st round experience a pro-bowl year, and 40% of QBs taken in the 1st round are "busts" (link to 25 year study below). And then you have that 18ish% in the middle. 

 

In short, drafting a QB should be know different than drafting other positions. If your left tackle is bad (bottom 3rd), do you not address it in the draft because you're afraid of a bust? No, you scout, and make the most educated decision you can. If Ballard is good, he's capable of picking the right 42%. Even 42% is probably better odds than JB suddenly being able to make progressions, pre-snap reads, and be accurate.

 

Also, the FA class of QBs has been the talk of just about every mainstream sports show/site. If you disagree, please feel free to list all the years in the last 10 that were better.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

All you have to do is read NCFs post earlier in this thread about the ESPN premium article concerning the QBs in this class.  This is not a great class and there have been other articles as well saying the same thing.  Of course all picks carry a risk that's common knowledge.  Each year some position groups are stronger than others and some are weaker.  This years QB class is one of the weaker ones this year.  Sorry your first rd analysis did nothing to convince me otherwise. 

[stitches]

46 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

All you have to do is read NCFs post earlier in this thread about the ESPN premium article concerning the QBs in this class.  This is not a great class and there have been other articles as well saying the same thing.  Of course all picks carry a risk that's common knowledge.  Each year some position groups are stronger than others and some are weaker.  This years QB class is one of the weaker ones this year.  Sorry your first rd analysis did nothing to convince me otherwise. 

I disagree. This class has some great talent at the top and some great depth to it, too. It has some very intriguing project QBs too. Burrow and Tua would be in the running for no.1 pick pretty much every year(if Tua was healthy). Herbert is much better prospect than the likes of Daniel Jones or Josh Allen. I think Love is too, but with him it's more of a projection and more of my personal opinion... then you have Eason, Fromm, Gordon, Hurts, Morgan, Luton... all different flavors of QBs that might not be for everyone, but I can see different teams falling in love with any of them.

 

'83 class has the record on most QBs taken in the 1st with 6(John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly , Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). The only years with 5 QBs taken are 2018(Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Lamar) and 1999(Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith,  Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown). This current class is very likely to be another 5 QBs in the 1st class, but even if it's 4, IMO it's still a pretty good class. 

[MikeCurtis]

I think Fromm, Eason, Gordon,  and Love can improve their draft position by having a strong combine and interview well

 

If Fromm shows a stronger arm than what he showed in the season, he might move to the top of 2nd round

 

All of these kids have been working with specialists to lessen their weaknesses and add to their strengths

 

It doesn’t make a 6th round pick a 1st, but a person can jump 10-20 spots

[chad72]

To me, Burrow, Tua and Herbert are Round 1 worthy and the rest can either wait or are at the behest of the eyes of the beholder if they want to move back into Round 1 for the 5th year option. 

[chad72]

10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

Looking at the rate of interior OL, it is no co-incidence both Ryan Kelly and Big Q have been great picks for us. Yet, some people griped at a guard being taken at No.6. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think Fromm is one that might be able to increase his stock thr most. He will blow the interviews out of the water. If he shows some more arm strength by using his lower body more so his ball doesn’t die he could move up quite a bit. He has all the intangibles.

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I disagree. This class has some great talent at the top and some great depth to it, too. It has some very intriguing project QBs too. Burrow and Tua would be in the running for no.1 pick pretty much every year(if Tua was healthy). Herbert is much better prospect than the likes of Daniel Jones or Josh Allen. I think Love is too, but with him it's more of a projection and more of my personal opinion... then you have Eason, Fromm, Gordon, Hurts, Morgan, Luton... all different flavors of QBs that might not be for everyone, but I can see different teams falling in love with any of them.

 

'83 class has the record on most QBs taken in the 1st with 6(John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly , Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). The only years with 5 QBs taken are 2018(Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Lamar) and 1999(Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith,  Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown). This current class is very likely to be another 5 QBs in the 1st class, but even if it's 4, IMO it's still a pretty good class. 

There is no doubt there will be quite a few QBs taken in the 1st rd.  That doesn't make it a good class talent wise.  It's the most important position on the team and teams will draft them earlier than they should because of that and they have the need.  As eaststreet pointed out there are only 4 QBs taken in the 1st rd over the last five years that are ranked in the top half of the league.   There is a difference between quality and quantity in the 1st rd.  If the talent of the QBs are rated high than your chance of success is higher.  If the talent is rated avg or low I wouldn't expect great results.  JMO.  

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

There is no doubt there will be quite a few QBs taken in the 1st rd.  That doesn't make it a good class talent wise.  It's the most important position on the team and teams will draft them earlier than they should because of that and they have the need.  As eaststreet pointed out there are only 4 QBs taken in the 1st rd over the last five years that are ranked in the top half of the league.   There is a difference between quality and quantity in the 1st rd.  If the talent of the QBs are rated high than your chance of success is higher.  If the talent is rated avg or low I wouldn't expect great results.  JMO.  

So if draft position is not indicative of what the league thinks of the QB class, then what is? I mean, it's not like QB became the most important position this year. It's been like this since forever and teams have been overdrafting QBs since forever. IMO it's reasonable to assess how highly the league sees this QB class by the position they draft them at.

 

Also - it's normal to have few QBs ranked in the top  from recent drafts - those are young QBs that are yet to approach their prime. QBs take time to develop and the recent ones have entered into a league with some great veteran talent at QB(although we are kind of witnessing the passing of the baton...). And still, we have the two most recent MVPs being drafted at 10 and 32.

 

 

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

So if draft position is not indicative of what the league thinks of the QB class, then what is? I mean, it's not like QB became the most important position this year. It's been like this since forever and teams have been overdrafting QBs since forever. IMO it's reasonable to assess how highly the league sees this QB class by the position they draft them at.

 

Also - it's normal to have few QBs ranked in the top  from recent drafts - those are young QBs that are yet to approach their prime. QBs take time to develop and the recent ones have entered into a league with some great veteran talent at QB(although we are kind of witnessing the passing of the baton...). And still, we have the two most recent MVPs being drafted at 10 and 32.

 

 

Like you said teams have been over drafting QBs forever.  This year will be no exception.  It just happens because it is the most important position and biggest need for any team.  They will take chances and hope they hit.  These are bad teams drafting at the top of the draft.  Good chance they need a QB.  They get pushed up be need.  JMO. 

[chad72]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Like you said teams have been over drafting QBs forever.  This year will be no exception.  It just happens because it is the most important position and biggest need for any team.  They will take chances and hope they hit.  These are bad teams drafting at the top of the draft.  Good chance they need a QB.  They get pushed up be need.  JMO. 

 

You have to understand the Top 50 players in most Big Board scenarios aren't necessarily the Top 50 drafted, or even the Top 40 drafted because there are always outliers on boards. A QB ranked in the Top 30 may go in the Top 10, and an OL/DL (or any position) ranked in the Top 50 may go in the Top 30, that is just how it is. 

 

Everything prior to the draft is far more speculative than what happens on draft day. The draft pick is a certainty. Our gauge of a draft class quality is still subjective and will always remain subjective years after the draft is done, the only objective quantifiable means is the draft position. 

 

People are tagged throughout their lives based on their draft position, a draft class is gauged based on draft position, Tannehill's stigma went with him till he had a shot at redemption with the Titans. So, @stitches means for a draft class evaluation based on draft position is definitely far more objective than our subjective Big Board and draft class quality evaluation in foresight or hindsight. That is not as debatable as you and I would like to think they are, draft positions determining draft quality. The more reaches you have that do not materialize, the draft quality suffers and results in a worse grade for a draft class.

[EastStreet]

14 hours ago, richard pallo said:

All you have to do is read NCFs post earlier in this thread about the ESPN premium article concerning the QBs in this class.  This is not a great class and there have been other articles as well saying the same thing.  Of course all picks carry a risk that's common knowledge.  Each year some position groups are stronger than others and some are weaker.  This years QB class is one of the weaker ones this year.  Sorry your first rd analysis did nothing to convince me otherwise. 

So one ESPN guy's opinion? lol... 

The post said 2019 was better (look at 2019's class and their impact last year lol). 2018 may very well be better, but I'm betting they are using a lot of hindsight instead of reflecting back on how they viewed 2018 at the time. I'll remind you that they are likely placing great emphasis on Jackson's performance last season, when in fact he went in the late round, and most projected him a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Out of the 4 top 10 picks, none are performing in the top half of the league, and one isn't even playing. 

 

Please share "all" the articles. I think you're projecting your opinion. I've read a ton on this class. While it may not be seen as great (like WRs and CBs this year), it's not seen as poor either. If it were so poor, why are all the experts projecting more QBs taken in the first round than 4 out of the last 5 years? Especially with the abundance of FAs available. But go ahead and continue to defy simple math and basics of projected demand.

[EastStreet]

12 hours ago, chad72 said:

Looking at the rate of interior OL, it is no co-incidence both Ryan Kelly and Big Q have been great picks for us. Yet, some people griped at a guard being taken at No.6. 

In general, most teams don't want to take an OG in the 1st, and I understand why. That said, Q was seen as a generational guy, so is an outlier. I'm a huge ND fan, so I was very happy. He'll be a top performer in the league for 10 years, and I'm not going to complain about that. Plus, he's funny AF.

[WifiGuy]

22 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

So one ESPN guy's opinion? lol... 

The post said 2019 was better (look at 2019's class and their impact last year lol). 2018 may very well be better, but I'm betting they are using a lot of hindsight instead of reflecting back on how they viewed 2018 at the time. I'll remind you that they are likely placing great emphasis on Jackson's performance last season, when in fact he went in the late round, and most projected him a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Out of the 4 top 10 picks, none are performing in the top half of the league, and one isn't even playing. 

 

Please share "all" the articles. I think you're projecting your opinion. I've read a ton on this class. While it may not be seen as great (like WRs and CBs this year), it's not seen as poor either. If it were so poor, why are all the experts projecting more QBs taken in the first round than 4 out of the last 5 years? Especially with the abundance of FAs available. But go ahead and continue to defy simple math and basics of projected demand.

Experts?  Oh do tell

 

I promise you if Luck were still our QB this board would be talking about how crazy some of these QB needy teams will be reaching for any of these QB's other than Burrows or Tua.   And all the talk would be about WR's and defense.  

 

[EastStreet]

55 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

Experts?  Oh do tell

 

I promise you if Luck were still our QB this board would be talking about how crazy some of these QB needy teams will be reaching for any of these QB's other than Burrows or Tua.   And all the talk would be about WR's and defense.  

Just about very mainstream football show or news site has 3 QBs being taken in the top 10, and 4-5 taken in the 1st. 

 

Do tell? Done told...

 

By the way, many said KC was reaching for Mahomes who they saw as a system QB. Many said Baltimore was reaching for Jackson even though he was late 1st round. QBs taken very high (even highest) bust all the time. Like I said earlier, 42% of all QBs taken in the 1st have a PB year, and 40% are bust. Many "no-brainers" bust. Many "reaches" prove good.

[Four2itus]

Teams overreach for QB's every single year.