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DownHillRunner

Casserly Mock 1.0....No Love in the 1st, Lamb to the Colts

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This mock draft isn't as unrealistic as you may think. The one thing that surprised me when reading it is no Jordan Love in the first. It's hard to imagine Love not getting drafted in the 1st especially if he has a solid combine next week. Ballard would be smiling from ear to ear if Love fell out of the first round. Ceedee Lamb is there at 13 would you take him? Ballard wants playmakers, and Lamb is exactly that. Lamb, and if Campbell, and TY can stay healthy is a great 3 man receiver punch.  

 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102266/article/charley-casserlys-2020-nfl-mock-draft-10-herbert-to-chargers

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The blurb on the Colt's pick says....

 

Quote

D-line and wideout are the Colts' top needs. If they can solve their QB question in free agency, the aerial attack could take off in a hurry, given the immense talent at receiver in this draft class. A 1-2 punch of T.Y. Hilton and Lamb sounds pretty potent.

 

Regardless, I don't see Indy taking a WR in the first. Or second unless they solve for QB, iDL, and perhaps OT and DE in FA. IMO third or later is where Indy takes a WR (unless someone really good drops to 34 or 44).

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24 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

The blurb on the Colt's pick says....

 

 

Regardless, I don't see Indy taking a WR in the first. Or second unless they solve for QB, iDL, and perhaps OT and DE in FA. IMO third or later is where Indy takes a WR (unless someone really good drops to 34 or 44).

With how deep this WR class is and having two 2nd round picks, I would say the odds are better than 50% we take a WR in the 2nd round. I'm somewhat expecting it.

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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

With how deep this WR class is and having two 2nd round picks, I would say the odds are better than 50% we take a WR in the 2nd round. I'm somewhat expecting it.

I think the depth is exactly why we don't take one till after the 2nd.

There is much better value for WRs in the middle rounds than there is for other high needs (QB, iDL, OT). If we can address at minimum one of those in FA, I agree it might be 44. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think the depth is exactly why we don't take one till after the 2nd.

There is much better value for WRs in the middle rounds than there is for other high needs (QB, iDL, OT). If we can address at minimum one of those in FA, I agree it might be 44. 

After the first 10 picks, WR's will be going fast and furious. If Ballard waits til the third round, his guys may be gone. We'll see anyway, but I expect as high as 15-20 WR's to go before our third round pick at 75.

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40 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

After the first 10 picks, WR's will be going fast and furious. If Ballard waits til the third round, his guys may be gone. We'll see anyway, but I expect as high as 15-20 WR's to go before our third round pick at 75.

There are more than 25 WRs rated 6.0 or higher this year, so not really worried if the 15-20 are gone by 75. I think 15-20 is pretty unlikely as 20/75 would mean that 27% of all picks are WRs (WRs only make up 11% of starters).... I also think there will be several quality X WRs still available at 75, which IMO is our biggest WR need.

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

There are more than 25 WRs rated 6.0 or higher this year, so not really worried if the 15-20 are gone by 75. I think 15-20 is pretty unlikely as 20/75 would mean that 27% of all picks are WRs (WRs only make up 11% of starters).... I also think there will be several quality X WRs still available at 75, which IMO is our biggest WR need.

 

 6.0 = basically a solid, NFL player.

 

 Depending on how you define 'solid', is that really all the Colts need at WR ?

 

 With TY on the plus side of 30 (and heavily reliant on speed and quickness)

 and having proven at least a bit injury prone, an argument can be made that they

 need a kid who is at least a prospective WR-1A type (ala what Wayne became).

 

Not arguing to use #13 on a WR (though would be ok with it). But I also 

would wait past #44.

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8 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

This mock draft isn't as unrealistic as you may think. The one thing that surprised me when reading it is no Jordan Love in the first. It's hard to imagine Love not getting drafted in the 1st especially if he has a solid combine next week. Ballard would be smiling from ear to ear if Love fell out of the first round. Ceedee Lamb is there at 13 would you take him? Ballard wants playmakers, and Lamb is exactly that. Lamb, and if Campbell, and TY can stay healthy is a great 3 man receiver punch.  

 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102266/article/charley-casserlys-2020-nfl-mock-draft-10-herbert-to-chargers

FWIW, Love was ranked as the 69th best QB by PFF for 2019.  For comparison, QBs like Montez, Mond, Shea Patterson, etc, were ranked ahead of him.

 

Methinks professional scouts see things differently than the fans do here, but we'll see what happens come draft day.  Love also did not have a great Senior Bowl, mixed results and opinions.

 

Ballard may have been following Love all of this time as a developmental prospect to learn behind a starter.  Maybe a 4th round prospect.  Nothing says that CB thinks of him as a 1st or 2nd rounder, AFAIK.

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2 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

I don't like the pick. Colts can wait to 34 to get WR.

 I’m hoping for a DT at 13, QB at 34 (if Love or Fromm are there) and WR at 44.

 If AC retires, that changes everything.

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If we did, I would want Jeudy instead. The first 2 things scouts say is he always gets separation and he is the best route runner in the draft.  If we run with JB next year, we need someone always open. 

 

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Lamb in R1 and Love at 34 would be nice. Unfortunately I don't expect Love to last until 34. 

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Even if Love doesn’t get taken in the first 15 picks he is not getting past the Saints or NE. I just saw a rumor titans were the leader to land Brady. If that is the case they might even be looking to draft a QB. Rumor was they also like Love.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

FWIW, Love was ranked as the 69th best QB by PFF for 2019.  For comparison, QBs like Montez, Mond, Shea Patterson, etc, were ranked ahead of him.

 

Methinks professional scouts see things differently than the fans do here, but we'll see what happens come draft day.  Love also did not have a great Senior Bowl, mixed results and opinions.

 

Ballard may have been following Love all of this time as a developmental prospect to learn behind a starter.  Maybe a 4th round prospect.  Nothing says that CB thinks of him as a 1st or 2nd rounder, AFAIK.

PFF hates Love. Don’t take them serious on that.

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I wouldn't mind getting a Jeudy or Lamb, but would prefer a slight trade down first. WRs could slide a little only because of the depth this year. 

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10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

PFF hates Love. Don’t take them serious on that.

Contrary to some urban myths,  a professional organization doesn't harbor inherent hatred for someone.  IOW, if they hate him, they probably have a good reason to. 

 

Another organization may see that objective criteria a different way.  Difference of opinions, not hate, IMO.

 

But my main point was that we hear how CB or the Colts have been interested in Love, and that the interest some how gets automatically elevated into CB thinking he is a 1st or 2nd rounder, when I don't believe there has been any reasonable correlation between CBs interest and the desire to draft him high.  Again, AFAIK.

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7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

PFF hates Love. Don’t take them serious on that.

he didnt really deserve a high pff grade based on this year. 

 

scouts and analysts go by potential, pff goes by what they saw 

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Ballard wold have witnessed several highly rated players that played with Love.
I think there is a better chance we end up with one of them over Love.

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24 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Contrary to some urban myths,  a professional organization doesn't harbor inherent hatred for someone.  IOW, if they hate him, they probably have a good reason to. 

 

Another organization may see that objective criteria a different way.  Difference of opinions, not hate, IMO.

 

But my main point was that we hear how CB or the Colts have been interested in Love, and that the interest some how gets automatically elevated into CB thinking he is a 1st or 2nd rounder, when I don't believe there has been any reasonable correlation between CBs interest and the desire to draft him high.  Again, AFAIK.

 

 

You're afaik!!!

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8 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

 

You're afaik!!!

What does that mean?

 

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Just now, DougDew said:

What does that mean?

 

 

You're a fake? Idk what AFAIK means but you keep using it. I was just being sarcastic. 

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Just now, NannyMcafee said:

 

You're a fake? Idk what AFAIK means but you keep using it. I was just being sarcastic. 

AFAIK.  As Far As I Know.

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37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Contrary to some urban myths,  a professional organization doesn't harbor inherent hatred for someone.  IOW, if they hate him, they probably have a good reason to. 

 

Another organization may see that objective criteria a different way.  Difference of opinions, not hate, IMO.

 

But my main point was that we hear how CB or the Colts have been interested in Love, and that the interest some how gets automatically elevated into CB thinking he is a 1st or 2nd rounder, when I don't believe there has been any reasonable correlation between CBs interest and the desire to draft him high.  Again, AFAIK.

They simply don’t like players that’s only have upside. They said they would take Fromm over Love. 

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1 minute ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

You're a fake? Idk what AFAIK means but you keep using it. I was just being sarcastic. 

As

Far

As

I

Know

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

AFAIK.  As Far As I Know.

 

Why thank you. I recant my last statement. You're a good person! Lol

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

FWIW, Love was ranked as the 69th best QB by PFF for 2019.  For comparison, QBs like Montez, Mond, Shea Patterson, etc, were ranked ahead of him.

 

Where who was ranked by PFF last year is completely irrelevant because all 3 of those guys will be late round or undrafted guys. At worst, Love will be a 2nd round guy.

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10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

They simply don’t like players that’s only have upside. They said can they would take Fromm over Love. 

They simply judge how a player has played any given week, (which can be subjective based upon situations) then sort of wrap that up into a season.  If the subjective parts are applied consistently, then its a pretty objective way to compare the play of one QB to the next.

 

As far as Fromm vs Love, we all know that each QB had a down year in 2019 relative to 2018.  I guess what they are saying is that the situations Fromm was placed in plays a greater role in his statistical dropoff compared to what Love did with what he had to deal with at the time.  I don't think there is any love or hate for either QB that would make them look at those situations differently.  They get paid to be as accurate as possible, and predetermined hate would pretty much throw off that accuracy quite badly.

 

If PFF does a mock draft, and I haven't seen one, I assume they are going to weigh their own work they did rather than throw it aside to look at potential.  As I said before, FWIW.

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This is hard for me to gage at this point.  They need a WR, but if Brown or Kinlaw is there they would be tough to pass on, especially how deep the WR appears to be.  Then again, if Castonzo doesn't come back then T could come into play.  But IF Castonzo comes back and IF the top 2 DT's are gone, I wouldn't be opposed to getting one of the top 2 WR's and adding him to Hilton & Co.

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13 minutes ago, DougDew said:

They simply judge how a player has played any given week, (which can be subjective based upon situations) then sort of wrap that up into a season.  If the subjective parts are applied consistently, then its a pretty objective way to compare the play of one QB to the next.

 

As far as Fromm vs Love, we all know that each QB had a down year in 2019 relative to 2018.  I guess what they are saying is that the situations Fromm was placed in plays a greater role in his statistical dropoff compared to what Love did with what he had to deal with at the time.  I don't think there is any love or hate for either QB that would make them look at those situations differently.  They get paid to be as accurate as possible, and predetermined hate would pretty much throw off that accuracy quite badly.

 

If PFF does a mock draft, and I haven't seen one, I assume they are going to weigh their own work they did rather than throw it aside to look at potential.  As I said before, FWIW.

They have done a bunch of mocks. You can see them on YouTube. I get what they do and the reasoning. It’s just not a good way to determine who will be successful.

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37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Contrary to some urban myths,  a professional organization doesn't harbor inherent hatred for someone.  IOW, if they hate him, they probably have a good reason to. 

 

Another organization may see that objective criteria a different way.  Difference of opinions, not hate, IMO.

 

But my main point was that we hear how CB or the Colts have been interested in Love, and that the interest some how gets automatically elevated into CB thinking he is a 1st or 2nd rounder, when I don't believe there has been any reasonable correlation between CBs interest and the desire to draft him high.  Again, AFAIK.

Agree with your greater point. I don't think they are biased against him or haters or anything like that. I think they are really afraid of the low end of the possible outcomes for Love. I recognize that low end possibility too... I'm just not as averse to it as they seem to be. They seem to value high floor a lot higher than high ceiling. IMO that's the exact wrong thing to value in a QB prospect. High floor if not accompanied with high ceiling translates into mediocre QB in the league, that will lose you half a decade in no mans land. I'm just OK with the boom or bust nature of Love. If he's not going to be great, I'd rather learn it as quick as possible so we can move on. 

 

About your Ballard point - IMO GMs don't schedule a travel 1500 miles on a random November weekend during NFL season to watch Utah State vs Boise state for a mid-late round prospect. IMO there are a lot of legitimate indications that the Colts are considering him much higher than what you are suggesting. Now maybe they consider him and they think he's not worth it, or they don't like him enough at the end(very possible), but IMO it's been plenty clear to the whole NFL that Love is a R1 or R2 prospect and that seems to be the way they are approaching him. That's why you won't find a mock anywhere without him being taken at the very least in the second round. He got an evaluation from the draft advisory board and I really doubt as the youngest QB in this draft he would have declared if they didn't give him a high grade. 

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17 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Where who was ranked by PFF last year is completely irrelevant because all 3 of those guys will be late round or undrafted guys. At worst, Love will be a 2nd round guy.

He probably will, but that doesn't mean the Colts are one of those teams.

 

Despite CB showing interest in watching Love,  I haven't seen any of those even speculative rumor mill things like  "sources say to not expect Love to get passed the Colts at 13 or 34" that are sometimes said about players.

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Just now, stitches said:

Agree with your greater point. I don't think they are biased against him or haters or anything like that. I think they are really afraid of the low end of the possible outcomes for Love. I recognize that low end possibility too... I'm just not as averse to it as they seem to be. They seem to value high floor a lot higher than high ceiling. IMO that's the exact wrong thing to value in a QB prospect. High floor if not accompanied with high ceiling translates into mediocre QB in the league, that will lose you half a decade in no mans land. I'm just OK with the boom or bust nature of Love. If he's not going to be great, I'd rather learn it as quick as possible so we can move on. 

 

About your Ballard point - IMO GMs don't schedule a travel 1500 miles on a random November weekend during NFL season to watch Utah State vs Boise state for a mid-late round prospect. IMO there are a lot of legitimate indications that the Colts are considering him much higher than what you are suggesting. Now maybe they consider him and they think he's not worth it, or they don't like him enough at the end(very possible), but IMO it's been plenty clear to the whole NFL that Love is a R1 or R2 prospect and that seems to be the way they are approaching him. That's why you won't find a mock anywhere without him being taken at the very least in the second round. He got an evaluation from the draft advisory board and I really doubt as the youngest QB in this draft he would have declared if they didn't give him a high grade. 

Couple points:  I don't think this offense needs a "high ceiling" QB.  I think it needs a high floor guy who simply has quicker mental processing and better accuracy than JB does, and right now.  The QBs who probably possess those traits immediately are the top 3 guys, and Fromm over Love as the 4th.  Gordon may even be higher ranked than Love in those terms.  That might not equate to draft position, but PFF rank tends to correlate with high floors as opposed to high ceilings, as you said.

 

I'm simply saying that many are wanting that high ceiling QB, and I'm not sure that CB or Reich has ever expressed that as a need or a want.  

 

IMO, we have gotten more mileage out of our high picks that had high floors coming in, Nelson, Leonard, and Smith,....Kelly then we have with guys who needed work immediately but had higher ceilings; Hooker, Wilson, Lewis....TJ Green, DJoun Smith.  

 

I'm pretty leery of looking at the QB position in a high ceiling way, especially since the current QB we have is playing at a pretty low floor level.

 

 

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I don’t want just a high floor guy. I want a guy that can be a playmaker and compete with the Watson and Mahomes. I trust Reich that he can bring out the best in a QB like Love. Love has already said he needs to play smarter. 

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I don't think that Love falling out of the first round is all that unreasonable. People on this board have an insanely inflated value of all QBs just because we don't want to be stuck with Brissett again and want a shiny new toy to watch on the field. Love is a fringe first round caliber player, but forum members projecting him at 13 all of the time has really made everyone assume that he is an early round 1 player.

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1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

 

You're afaik!!!

 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

What does that mean?

 

 

1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

You're a fake? Idk what AFAIK means but you keep using it. I was just being sarcastic. 

 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

AFAIK.  As Far As I Know.

 

1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

Why thank you. I recant my last statement. You're a good person! Lol

This made me laugh a lot.

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Boy, the way that draft fell, if Castonzo retired, I'd have taken Wirfs, otherwise, I may be looking to trade back a little.

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10 hours ago, indykmj said:

 

 6.0 = basically a solid, NFL player.

 

 Depending on how you define 'solid', is that really all the Colts need at WR ?

 

 With TY on the plus side of 30 (and heavily reliant on speed and quickness)

 and having proven at least a bit injury prone, an argument can be made that they

 need a kid who is at least a prospective WR-1A type (ala what Wayne became).

 

Not arguing to use #13 on a WR (though would be ok with it). But I also 

would wait past #44.

What's funny is that TY was a late 3rd rounder, who was seen as a very limited WR. They basically said he was a "deep threat" only type of WR and didn't have the skills to be successful short to intermediate.

 

6.0 is simply a threshold I use to gauge the overall depth of WR. The ratings are directionally correct, but not the end all be all. The league is literally littered with high 6s that aren't WR1s, and sub 6s that are WR1s. Like TY, did you know Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder. He was predicted to go undrafted... Last year was one of the better years for rookie production based on NFL.com's ratings, but half or more of the guys rated above 6.0 failed to attain 500 or more yards.

 

Did you know that Parris Cambell was tied for 2nd in last years grading (graded out at a 6.7), only behind AJ Brown? So if you're looking for a highly graded guy that has the ability to take over WR1, he has all the measurables and grading. I doubt the FO is giving up on his potential due to a bunch of unrelated (and some freak) injuries. 

 

On that note, and assuming they aren't giving up on PC, CB and FR were both on record saying last year that they were starting him inside but had plans to gradually work him outside. That likely means Z (as he's not an X type WR), and probably means they viewed him as the eventual successor to TY. IMO, their intention might be to end up with PC at Z, and move TY in to slot to extend his career as he slows a bit. Then you also have Fountain that likely ends up in the Z/slot space (he might be able to handle speed/little X (but would not be a primary X IMO)

 

If the above is the case, that might signal that their biggest need is at traditional X, and if that's the case, there will be plenty 6.0+ to chose from in the middle rounds (Xs normally stay on the board longer). Check out the list of Xs and "guys that could project at any position" in the below thread. And even then, if they re-sign Funch (which they said they wanted to), that need might not be huge.

 

 

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10 hours ago, stitches said:

Agree with your greater point. I don't think they are biased against him or haters or anything like that. I think they are really afraid of the low end of the possible outcomes for Love. I recognize that low end possibility too... I'm just not as averse to it as they seem to be. They seem to value high floor a lot higher than high ceiling. IMO that's the exact wrong thing to value in a QB prospect. High floor if not accompanied with high ceiling translates into mediocre QB in the league, that will lose you half a decade in no mans land. I'm just OK with the boom or bust nature of Love. If he's not going to be great, I'd rather learn it as quick as possible so we can move on. 

 

About your Ballard point - IMO GMs don't schedule a travel 1500 miles on a random November weekend during NFL season to watch Utah State vs Boise state for a mid-late round prospect. IMO there are a lot of legitimate indications that the Colts are considering him much higher than what you are suggesting. Now maybe they consider him and they think he's not worth it, or they don't like him enough at the end(very possible), but IMO it's been plenty clear to the whole NFL that Love is a R1 or R2 prospect and that seems to be the way they are approaching him. That's why you won't find a mock anywhere without him being taken at the very least in the second round. He got an evaluation from the draft advisory board and I really doubt as the youngest QB in this draft he would have declared if they didn't give him a high grade. 

Ummm....just a stretch here but  do actually think Ballard may have flown 1500 miles to look at Curtis Weaver who plays for Boise State???

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I did a comparison on Jeudy and Lamb and Jeudy is more explosive than Lamb if you watch his tape; but Lamb is the better route runner. I don't expect Ballard to reach for either player especially when the draft class is deep. 

 

 

Some 2nd 3rd round options are Mims, Jefferson, and Aiyuk. 

 

 

 

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On 2/21/2020 at 10:51 AM, WarGhost21 said:

I don't think that Love falling out of the first round is all that unreasonable. People on this board have an insanely inflated value of all QBs just because we don't want to be stuck with Brissett again and want a shiny new toy to watch on the field. Love is a fringe first round caliber player, but forum members projecting him at 13 all of the time has really made everyone assume that he is an early round 1 player.

Agreed 100 percent and that's exactly why in professional mocks I more often than not am seeing Love get passed on by the Colts. And when did that start? After the Senior Bowl where he showed some good, but also some of the same bad he showed on tape. The combine and his pro day could help his draft stock, but I think pundits are starting to wise up to hype behind Love. His issues last season are no small thing, and I can care less if the dude knows he needs to play smarter. Saying and doing are different things. Everyone understands his upside, it's really a question of how much we are willing to overlook the negatives, or maybe we think there is a good reason for the regression. Personally I watched the highlights of all his interceptions this past season and yikes... I would rather get more of a sure thing at 13, but the kid does have some great arm talent. And he did seem to make better decisions last season, so who knows how he'll turn out. I don't know if I'm a fan of the risk, though.

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