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Marlon Mack Contract Situation: Stats, Poll, & Discussion

Marlon Mack Contract Situation: Stats, Poll, & Discussion  

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This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. In general, what are your thoughts about Mack's contract situation

    • We should extend early
    • We don't need to extend now, re-sign after the season
    • Don't extend/re-sign. Replace via draft or FA.
    • I'm indifferent on the situation, things will work themselves out
  2. 2. Assuming we extend/re-sign, how long?

    • Additional 2 years (through 2022)
    • Additional 3 years (through 2023)
    • Additional 4 years (through 2024)
  3. 3. Mack's new salary (average per year) should be?

    • Top 5 (at least $8.3M)
    • 6th - 10th range ($5.0-8.0M)
    • 11th-15th range ($4.0-4.9M)
    • 16-20th range (M3.0-3.9M)

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  • Poll closed on 02/19/2020 at 05:00 AM

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2 hours ago, Dogg63 said:

Spotrac projects Carlos Hyde at $3mil/year (he got $2.8mil last year from Houston after Miller shredded his knee). He ran for over 1000 yards last season. If he got $2.8mil when they were in a pickle, and projects at $3mil by Spotrac for next year, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers for Mack?

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/carlos-hyde-14467/market-value/

 

Carlos Hyde is a 30 year old journeyman at a position where most players don't reach 30 with any free agent value. He's not a comp. 

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Just now, EastStreet said:

I said there is only one RB making 15M. He's the one.

I also listed his salary above.

 

You said TG. Either way, that's the top of the market. Gurley is close. Bell and Johnson are within shouting distance; Johnson's contract is two years old, and Bell was 27 when he signed, not 24 like Mack.

 

All kind of irrelevant to the point. There's no reasonable option for paying Mack $6-7m a year is what I'm saying. It's a false choice. If that's your number then you're deciding to let him walk. 

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8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

What calculation are you using where Elliott doesn't make $15m/year? 

Sorry, just realized I typed TG in one of the posts.

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10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Carlos Hyde is a 30 year old journeyman at a position where most players don't reach 30 with any free agent value. He's not a comp. 

Good point, thanks.

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12 hours ago, Superman said:

 

You said TG. Either way, that's the top of the market. Gurley is close. Bell and Johnson are within shouting distance; Johnson's contract is two years old, and Bell was 27 when he signed, not 24 like Mack.

 

All kind of irrelevant to the point. There's no reasonable option for paying Mack $6-7m a year is what I'm saying. It's a false choice. If that's your number then you're deciding to let him walk. 

 

If you bump up his contract next season by $4M...I think it would be reasonable to buy out 2-3 FA years for $6-7M/year. Mack's agent probably disagrees...but the Colts have all the leverage here.

 

Paying him $10M...even with the cap increases...seems way out there IMO. 

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17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Not saying you did, just pointing out Williams poor AVG vs Houston isn't really something to hang your hat on.

He was top 10 in attempts per game, IIRC, 6th. Not sure what your point is on this.

EE also averaged 500 yards receiving per year in 18/19

I didn't say he was as good as Mack. He does has better hands though. I do think he's better than Wilkins in terms of being well rounded. He certainly blocks better than Wilkins, and is certainly better after first contact. As far as his history, his first year was post foot surgery (Bills). He stood little chance with Saints with both Ingram and Kamara there, not to mention the Taysom Hill packages.

Williams may have very well had 200+ as well had he played the whole game. We'll never know.

I'm not basing my opinion on just Houston, or Jax. I watched him play in college, and thought he was good there, even in their RB by committee. He would have went higher than 5th had he not missed his last season and had foot surgery. IMO, he should have returned for his SR season. He was tagged a "sleeper" by a lot of folks.


I get that he didn’t beat out Kamara or Ingram but he also didn’t beat out Dwayne Washington either who was the 3rd rb on that depth chart.
 

 

 

 

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Mack is only 23  soon to be 24. I don’t get why anyone would want to create a problem that isn’t there. You keep what’s working. 

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7 mil per year should be the max for him

 

if you look at that link i posted, 8 million or more would be paying him top 5 RB money.  i dont think he has the leverage to push for top 5 money 

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1 hour ago, USFfan said:


I get that he didn’t beat out Kamara or Ingram but he also didn’t beat out Dwayne Washington either who was the 3rd rb on that depth chart.

Washington is more of a scat back / APB, so I doubt they were competing against each other for a spot. That would be similar to comparing Hines to Williams.

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Mack is only 23  soon to be 24. I don’t get why anyone would want to create a problem that isn’t there. You keep what’s working. 

I love Mack, but like you saw in my previous reply, the great majority of production at RB is coming from those on rookie contracts. Mack is 10ish in rushing, but just 15ish in yards from scrimmage. 13 out of the top 20 were rooks. Only 6 of the top 20 were making 5M or more, and only 2 in the the top 10 (and both are rooks).

 

Point is, there's a line. Most teams that gave big contracts to non-rook RBs are now sitting with non-top 10 production. Elliot is the only non-rook RB paid in the top 10, AND performing in the top 10. The Rams (TG), Cards (DJ), and Jets (Bell) are all effectively over paying right now, and likely kicking themselves. You can add a few other too.

 

I'd love to have Mack back, but if he's asking for 10 or more, I would absolutely let him walk. A lot of mid round rook RBs and FAs can look good behind our OL.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Washington is more of a scat back / APB, so I doubt they were competing against each other for a spot. That would be similar to comparing Hines to Williams.

Dude cmon. Dwayne Washington is 6’1” 223. Jonathon Williams is 6’ 217. Nyheim Hines is 5’ 9” 196.

 

Dwayne Washington has 13 receptions in 4 years. He’s not a scat back. He also isn’t a a good rb.

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33 minutes ago, USFfan said:

Dude cmon. Dwayne Washington is 6’1” 223. Jonathon Williams is 6’ 223. Nyheim Hines is 5’ 9” 196.

 

Dwayne Washington has 13 receptions in 4 years. He’s not a scat back.

 

Guessing you aren't familiar with Washington. Below is from his NFL.com's combine profile. He's exactly what I said he is. And is the reason why they weren't competing for the same type of spot.

 

Quote

 

40-yard dash: 4.44 seconds (would have been #2 for RBs in last year's combine)
Vertical: 37 inches (would have been #4 for RBs in last year's combine)
Broad jump: 10 feet, 7 inches (would have been #3 for RBs in last year's combine)
Short shuttle: 4.24 seconds (would have been #3 for RBs in last year's combine)
3-cone: 6.9 seconds (would have been #2 for RBs in last year's combine)
Bench: 21 reps of 225 pounds

 

STRENGTHS

 Possesses rare combination of size and speed. Flashes the juice once he hits it onto second level. Has a rush of 68 yards or more in each of his three seasons despite limited carries. Has enough early wiggle. Has athletic traits that cannot be ignored. Former wide receiver with ability to destroy linebackers matched up on him out of the backfield. Able to threaten the seam as pass catcher.

 

BOTTOM LINE

 Long, leggy scat­back who can hit the turbo in a straight line, but who lacks creativity, ball security and power. Washingtons history of choppy production and injuries make him an NFL long ­shot, but his size, speed and ability to impact a game as a pass catcher should create plenty of intrigue amongst NFL teams who covet traits.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/dwayne-washington?id=2556118

 

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46 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Guessing you aren't familiar with Washington. Below is from his NFL.com's combine profile. He's exactly what I said he is. And is the reason why they weren't competing for the same type of spot.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/dwayne-washington?id=2556118

 

I am very familiar with him. He was drafted by DET and showed nothing with them, waived then signed with NO.

 

The "scout" you quoted also claimed Mack was a scat back. So maybe he just likes the word...

 

"Scat back with decent size and blazing getaway speed. Mack has plenty of wiggle to bounce from run lane to run lane and make tacklers miss, but he has a penchant for looking to break runs way outside when the interior becomes too trafficked and he won't be able to get away with that against NFL speed. Mack is a complementary runner who can hit big runs against defenses who have been worn down..."

 

Long story short Jonathon Williams is closer to a Jonas Gray than a Chris Carson type.

 

Edit: I will say, the way I define a scat back is a small elusive RB that gets a very small amount of rushes and some catches i.e. Theo Riddick. You're definition might be different.

 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I love Mack, but like you saw in my previous reply, the great majority of production at RB is coming from those on rookie contracts. Mack is 10ish in rushing, but just 15ish in yards from scrimmage. 13 out of the top 20 were rooks. Only 6 of the top 20 were making 5M or more, and only 2 in the the top 10 (and both are rooks).

 

Point is, there's a line. Most teams that gave big contracts to non-rook RBs are now sitting with non-top 10 production. Elliot is the only non-rook RB paid in the top 10, AND performing in the top 10. The Rams (TG), Cards (DJ), and Jets (Bell) are all effectively over paying right now, and likely kicking themselves. You can add a few other too.

 

I'd love to have Mack back, but if he's asking for 10 or more, I would absolutely let him walk. A lot of mid round rook RBs and FAs can look good behind our OL.

 

Let's say McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook and Henry all sign long term deals this off-season. What range do you expect them to sign for?

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5 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

If you bump up his contract next season by $4M...I think it would be reasonable to buy out 2-3 FA years for $6-7M/year. Mack's agent probably disagrees...but the Colts have all the leverage here.

 

Paying him $10M...even with the cap increases...seems way out there IMO. 

 

The Colts have the most leverage. But all Mack has to do is say no, and then it's up to the Colts to make a decision. I think we can all conclude that we're not tagging him after 2020, right? So either the Colts offer Mack what he thinks his value is, or he waits them out and hits the market. 

 

I don't think it's remotely reasonable to expect Mack to sign a year early for a below market deal. Jerick McKinnon has never been especially productive, but two years ago he signed for $7.5m/year. Now, we're gonna get Mack for $7m?

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7 minutes ago, USFfan said:

I am very familiar with him. He was drafted by DET and showed nothing with them, waived then signed with NO.

 

The "scout" you quoted also claimed Mack was a scat back. So maybe he just likes the word...

 

"Scat back with decent size and blazing getaway speed. Mack has plenty of wiggle to bounce from run lane to run lane and make tacklers miss, but he has a penchant for looking to break runs way outside when the interior becomes too trafficked and he won't be able to get away with that against NFL speed. Mack is a complementary runner who can hit big runs against defenses who have been worn down..."

 

Long story short Jonathon Williams is closer to a Jonas Gray than a Chris Carson type.

Point is, Washington wasn't looked at as an every down back, which Williams was. That was the original point and still is. It likely was never a Williams vs Washington conversation as to who to keep (which is what you implied), with Kamara and Ingram already both there.

 

On Mack, many questioned his ability between the tackles. That's why he wasn't taken till mid rounds. And that's why some still question if he'd be near as effective without a top 5 line. I love Mack, but I also think he'd be very mediocre on a lot of other teams. I also think a lot of mid round RBs and a few FAs could perform just as good.

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16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Point is, Washington wasn't looked at as an every down back, which Williams was. That was the original point and still is. It likely was never a Williams vs Washington conversation as to who to keep (which is what you implied), with Kamara and Ingram already both there.

 

On Mack, many questioned his ability between the tackles. That's why he wasn't taken till mid rounds. And that's why some still question if he'd be near as effective without a top 5 line. I love Mack, but I also think he'd be very mediocre on a lot of other teams. I also think a lot of mid round RBs and a few FAs could perform just as good.

 

The Saints literally cut William's to sign Washington to be Kamaras back up while Ingram was on a 4 game suspension.. 

 

"The New Orleans Saints made a change at running back behind Alvin Kamara on Friday, promoting Dwayne Washington from the practice squad to the active roster and cutting Jonathan Williams. 

 

Washington, a veteran of two seasons in Detroit, had 110 carries and 12 catches in his two seasons with the Lions. 

For Washington, the decision represents a chance to make an impression before Mark Ingram returns from a four-game suspension next week. 

 

New Orleans has been looking for somebody who can take some of the load off of Kamara, who was given a career-high 31 touches on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons."

 

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/article_0bf8a4da-9024-5c2c-a10a-04f9c0172fe2.html

 

William's is a JAG (just a guy) there's a reason why no coaching staff (Broncos, Saints, Bills, Colts) have used him except for mostly practice squad.

 

Wilkins is a much better RB.

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13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Let's say McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook and Henry all sign long term deals this off-season. What range do you expect them to sign for?

McCaffrey, Cook, and Henry are 1, 2, and 3 in terms of yards from scrimmage, so I expect them to all be in that top echelon of $. Those three have proven they can take the #1 load at RB, and be good to great in the passing game to. Henry not so much as McCaffrey and Cook in the passing game. Kamara is different to me. Not sure he can take a #1 load at RB and be near as effective. He has far greater reliance on a complimentary every down back.

 

While I'd be happy to pay McCaffrey and Cook franchise type dollars, I'd have reservations about Henry and Kamara. Purely my opinion, but I could see Henry burning out quickly, and Kamara taking a big production drop without Brees or other elements. Like we've seen several times in the recent past, a lot of teams get burnt on big and long term RB contracts. It's simply a position, right or wrong, that is devalued and doesn't have a long life span.

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37 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Let's say McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook and Henry all sign long term deals this off-season. What range do you expect them to sign for?

McCaffery deserves big money, as does Kamara. Cook is an amazing RB but has crazy injury concerns. Derrick Henry said that Elliott's contract is his floor lol.

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19 minutes ago, USFfan said:

 

The Saints literally cut William's to sign Washington to be Kamaras back up while Ingram was on a 4 game suspension.. 

 

"The New Orleans Saints made a change at running back behind Alvin Kamara on Friday, promoting Dwayne Washington from the practice squad to the active roster and cutting Jonathan Williams. 

 

Washington, a veteran of two seasons in Detroit, had 110 carries and 12 catches in his two seasons with the Lions. 

For Washington, the decision represents a chance to make an impression before Mark Ingram returns from a four-game suspension next week. 

 

New Orleans has been looking for somebody who can take some of the load off of Kamara, who was given a career-high 31 touches on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons."

 

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/article_0bf8a4da-9024-5c2c-a10a-04f9c0172fe2.html

 

William's is a JAG (just a guy) there's a reason why no coaching staff (Broncos, Saints, Bills, Colts) have used him except for mostly practice squad.

 

Wilkins is a much better RB.

Like it says in your post. They were looking for someone like Kamara to take the load off. Kamara is as much WR as RB, as is Washington. Not like Williams.

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22 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Like it says in your post. They were looking for someone like Kamara to take the load off. Kamara is as much WR as RB, as is Washington. Not like Williams.

Reread it. It says "New Orleans has been looking for somebody who can take some of the load off of Kamara" it doesnt say they are looking for a player like Kamara. If anything they were replacing Mark Ingram who had a 4 game suspension to start the year.

 

Just admit he got beat out by Dwayne Washington. You said there wasn't a Washington vs. William's conversation on who to keep but that was exactly what it was. They cut Williams to sign Washington.

 

There is a reason he rode the bench when Mack and Wilkins were both back healthy.

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34 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

McCaffrey, Cook, and Henry are 1, 2, and 3 in terms of yards from scrimmage, so I expect them to all be in that top echelon of $. Those three have proven they can take the #1 load at RB, and be good to great in the passing game to. Henry not so much as McCaffrey and Cook in the passing game. Kamara is different to me. Not sure he can take a #1 load at RB and be near as effective. He has far greater reliance on a complimentary every down back.

 

While I'd be happy to pay McCaffrey and Cook franchise type dollars, I'd have reservations about Henry and Kamara. Purely my opinion, but I could see Henry burning out quickly, and Kamara taking a big production drop without Brees or other elements. Like we've seen several times in the recent past, a lot of teams get burnt on big and long term RB contracts. It's simply a position, right or wrong, that is devalued and doesn't have a long life span.

 

32 minutes ago, USFfan said:

McCaffery deserves big money, as does Kamara. Cook is an amazing RB but has crazy injury concerns. Derrick Henry said that Elliott's contract is his floor lol.

 

It's reasonable to assume that they all demand and/or sign for $13m+/year, right?

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3 minutes ago, USFfan said:

Reread it. It says "New Orleans has been looking for somebody who can take some of the load off of Kamara" it doesnt say they are looking for a player like Kamara. If anything they were replacing Mark Ingram who had a 4 game suspension to start the year.

 

Just admit he got beat out by Dwayne Washington. You said there wasn't a Washington vs. William's conversation on who to keep but that was exactly what it was. They cut Williams to sign Washington.

 

There is a reason he rode the bench when Mack and Wilkins were both back healthy.

LOL... Washington is a WR turned RB. He's in the mold of Kamara. You can ignore their histories, you can ignore what the "experts" say, but you can't ignore the snap counts and stats. When did Washington play this year? He played in only 4 games. 2 when Kamara was out, the other limited snaps he got were 2 late year games that were blow outs. In 18, he only played in one game that Ingram was out, and in that game he only got 2 snaps. The only two games that he had significant snaps in, were when Karama was out one game, and the other when Kamara was limited.

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11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's reasonable to assume that they all demand and/or sign for $13m+/year, right?

I'm sure they will all demand it. The Vikes don't really have the space so will have to make decisions. The Saints are in tough spot too salary cap wise and Kamara is still under contract, but I assume next year, they'll have a tough decision to make to.

 

Titans and Panthers will both pay whatever as Henry and McCaffrey are faces of the franchise.

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34 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

LOL... Washington is a WR turned RB. He's in the mold of Kamara. You can ignore their histories, you can ignore what the "experts" say, but you can't ignore the snap counts and stats. When did Washington play this year? He played in only 4 games. 2 when Kamara was out, the other limited snaps he got were 2 late year games that were blow outs. In 18, he only played in one game that Ingram was out, and in that game he only got 2 snaps. The only two games that he had significant snaps in, were when Karama was out one game, and the other when Kamara was limited.

I never said Washington was good or deserved snaps. That is the point lol. Williams couldn't even beat him out of a job.

 

The game you are talking about is week 17 when the Saints already clinched the playoffs so they rested Kamara. The other game he played against Cincy he had 11 carries to Ingrams 13 and Kamaras 12. That game was a blow out

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15 minutes ago, USFfan said:

I never said Washington was good or deserved snaps. That is the point lol. Williams couldn't even beat him out of a job.

 

The game you are talking about is week 17 when the Saints already clinched the playoffs so they rested Kamara. The other game he played against Cincy he had 11 carries to Ingrams 13 and Kamaras 12. That game was a blow out

Like I said, Williams and Washington are not comps. You've spun this around to several places. Washington was there as a Kamara type back, not an Ingram type back. Williams was simply cut to make room for an APB like Kamara. Gillislee was the guy there to be Ingram's backup, so you're argument should have used him instead of Washington. The snap counts are crystal clear in the last two years as to Washington's "type".

https://www.lineups.com/nfl/snap-counts/new-orleans-saints-snap-counts

 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Like I said, Williams and Washington are not comps. You've spun this around to several places. Washington was there as a Kamara type back, not an Ingram type back. Williams was simply cut to make room for an APB like Kamara. Gillislee was the guy there to be Ingram's backup, so you're argument should have used him instead of Washington. The snap counts are crystal clear in the last two years as to Washington's "type".

https://www.lineups.com/nfl/snap-counts/new-orleans-saints-snap-counts

 

Gillislee was released when Ingram came back. 

 

I am not sure what you are trying to argue anymore. Showing me Washington's snaps for NO doesnt tell me anything. Washington is bad at football that's why he is so far down on the depth chart and doesnt play. I am not saying Washington is good...

 

This is a stupid argument Williams is a JAG and was cut so Dwayne Washington could be on the roster, who is also a JAG.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, USFfan said:

Gillislee was released when Ingram came back. 

 

I am not sure what you are trying to argue anymore. Showing me Washington's snaps for NO doesnt tell me anything. Washington is bad at football that's why he is so far down on the depth chart and doesnt play. I am not saying Washington is good...

 

This is a stupid argument Williams is a JAG and was cut so Dwayne Washington could be on the roster, who is also a JAG.

You're the one that took this down the rabbit hole making it about unrelated teams and players, argued about the type of RB an unrelated guy was, and also what that unrelated guy was brought in to be at NO... I provided you links/data that were clear. But you're right, this is stupid. You could have left it about simple stats and performance or the player in question in 2019. 

 

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I love Mack, but like you saw in my previous reply, the great majority of production at RB is coming from those on rookie contracts. Mack is 10ish in rushing, but just 15ish in yards from scrimmage. 13 out of the top 20 were rooks. Only 6 of the top 20 were making 5M or more, and only 2 in the the top 10 (and both are rooks).

 

Point is, there's a line. Most teams that gave big contracts to non-rook RBs are now sitting with non-top 10 production. Elliot is the only non-rook RB paid in the top 10, AND performing in the top 10. The Rams (TG), Cards (DJ), and Jets (Bell) are all effectively over paying right now, and likely kicking themselves. You can add a few other too.

 

I'd love to have Mack back, but if he's asking for 10 or more, I would absolutely let him walk. A lot of mid round rook RBs and FAs can look good behind our OL.

Agree.  Especially since u have dumped so many resources into the O line. That should allow u to put lesser valued rbs behind that line. If u cant, then the O line is not doing their job. 

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11 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Agree.  Especially since u have dumped so many resources into the O line. That should allow u to put lesser valued rbs behind that line. If u cant, then the O line is not doing their job. 

Yup. Most good GMs pay the OL, and it pays dividends in both the passing and running games. If I'm going to pay high dollar for any skill O skill position, it won't be RB (who have short life spans). It'll be QB. I really do want Mack back, but RBs are fungible to an extent in today's NFL. I just hope he looks at his situation (good OL and complimentary scheme for him) and is willing to take less, for a longer term contract with guarantees.

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Let him walk .   One dimensional RB .   If he learns to catch the ball and can be a 3rd down threat    let me know, I'll reevaluate.   

 

Scat back with one of the top two OL in the NFL . 

 

No leverage on his part 

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17 minutes ago, WifiGuy said:

Let him walk .   One dimensional RB .   If he learns to catch the ball and can be a 3rd down threat    let me know, I'll reevaluate.   

 

Scat back with one of the top two OL in the NFL . 

 

No leverage on his part 

 

Smh. I hope the front office doesnt think the way you do...

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2 minutes ago, USFfan said:

 

Smh. I hope the front office doesnt think the way you do...

I get it .....  you're a fan from college days

 

But let me ask you this

 

Can he run?   YEP

Can he block? YEP

Can he catch the ball?  Is he reliable in the passing game?  NOPE

 

He doesn't deserve top money because of that!

 

 

Top backs can do it all .  

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, WifiGuy said:

I get it .....  you're a fan from college days

 

But let me ask you this

 

Can he run?   YEP

Can he block? YEP

Can he catch the ball?  Is he reliable in the passing game?  NOPE

 

He doesn't deserve top money because of that!

 

 

Top backs can do it all .  

 

 

 

 

Yes I know I am biased. 

Mack did catch the ball in College and has that ability. The Colts just never throw to him or have designed plays to throw to him.  They did in his rookie year and now just never do. It is very difficult to be reliable in the passing game when you hardly ever have the ball thrown to you.

 

Also, Mack is the Colts first 1000 yd rusher since 2007 with Addai. 

 

But now it's let him walk?

 

Edit: I forgot Gore had a 1000 yd season in 2017. Point still remains though. The Colts went 10 years without a 1000 yd rusher.

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I voted I was indifferent.  Mack is an incredible blocker but doesn’t wow me.   Ballard paid Ebron 6mil a year and that guy was not my favorite.  Makes me think he will pay Mack that or more and IDK.  I guess if he does he is a Colt and if he walks we get someone else.  

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3 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I voted I was indifferent.  Mack is an incredible blocker but doesn’t wow me.   Ballard paid Ebron 6mil a year and that guy was not my favorite.  Makes me think he will pay Mack that or more and IDK.  I guess if he does he is a Colt and if he walks we get someone else.  

 

Ebron had 14 TDs last year, and made something like 60% of what the highest paid TEs in the league made. He was definitely not overpaid.

 

He also plays an entirely different position.

 

I guess I'm just missing the connection?

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4 hours ago, USFfan said:

The Colts just never throw to him or have designed plays to throw to him.

he had a couple of tipped passes go for 6 the other way, and he also had a high drop % when they were throwing to him

 

thats why the stopped throwing to him 

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34 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

he had a couple of tipped passes go for 6 the other way, and he also had a high drop % when they were throwing to him

 

thats why the stopped throwing to him 

 

He will end up like Jordan Howard if he cannot catch the ball enough cleanly. Can't show your hand in the offensive playbook for a pass by bringing Hines or some other back on the field all the time.

 

Maybe based on that, Ballard can do a 3 yr. $25 mil. range type of contract and seal the deal with $15 mil. guaranteed, which I am sure is always the sticking point in contracts. That would be a very fair contract, IMO, given the type of involvement Mack has in this offense. It might put him at No.6 or No.7 in the league, if I am not mistaken and I do believe he is a Top 10 back in this league.

 

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42 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Ebron had 14 TDs last year, and made something like 60% of what the highest paid TEs in the league made. He was definitely not overpaid.

 

He also plays an entirely different position.

 

I guess I'm just missing the connection?

I should have explained better.  Ebron was still a part time player that received 6mil a year.  He did have one good year that was a lot bc of Luck. He was signed bc we expected Luck to be our QB. If Ballard will pay a part time player that much I can see him exceeding that for a player like Mack. The front office knows more than me so I will trust their judgement.  However, I’m ok with either direction they choose to go

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18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

McCaffrey, Cook, and Henry are 1, 2, and 3 in terms of yards from scrimmage, so I expect them to all be in that top echelon of $. Those three have proven they can take the #1 load at RB, and be good to great in the passing game to. Henry not so much as McCaffrey and Cook in the passing game. Kamara is different to me. Not sure he can take a #1 load at RB and be near as effective. He has far greater reliance on a complimentary every down back.

 

While I'd be happy to pay McCaffrey and Cook franchise type dollars, I'd have reservations about Henry and Kamara. Purely my opinion, but I could see Henry burning out quickly, and Kamara taking a big production drop without Brees or other elements. Like we've seen several times in the recent past, a lot of teams get burnt on big and long term RB contracts. It's simply a position, right or wrong, that is devalued and doesn't have a long life span.

 

Let's assume all four of these guys sign this year for $13m/year, somewhere in that range. Add in Fournette and Mixon, and let's assume that David Johnson and Devonta Freeman get released. Now your top RB market is set at that range, with eight or nine guys up there: Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCaffrey, Cook, Henry, Kamara, Fournette, Mixon. (And maybe those guys don't sign this year, but realistically, they'll all get new contracts from their teams in the next year or so, so that's our top nine-ish.)

 

Once you get rid of Johnson and Freeman -- and add in McKinnon at $7.5m, who will likely be released at some point over the next few weeks -- you have no middle class of veteran RBs. Duke Johnson is next, at $5.2m/year, with Ingram and a few other guys coming up behind him. We'll see what happens with Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake, James Conner, and whoever else is in that grouping. Maybe they form a middle class, but I think Mack has a better market claim than that group of guys. 

 

My opinion, if the Colts want to re-sign Mack this year, it has to be a legit second tier contract, which is something around $9-10m/year, three or four years. Just being realistic. There's a lot they can do with a structure on that kind of deal -- bonus, rolling guarantees, etc. -- to protect the team in the event Mack falls apart in the next two years. Especially if you do it this year, because you can spread out the bonus and mitigate the risk a little more, and he's still young even for a RB and hasn't been a high usage player so far.

 

If you're out on that range of contract for Mack, then I think you're out on Mack. That's fine. I just don't think it's reasonable to expect anything less. If you play out 2020, maybe his market changes and you can get him at the bargain rate of $6m/year. But IMO, this is the year. If you don't extend him now, then you might as well just ride him heavy in 2020 and then let him walk next year. And I'm fine with that, because I'm not super excited about throwing money at a veteran RB. 

 

But for me, it's one or the other. I don't think he's going to sign a bargain extension when he can reasonably expect to be a FA next year at 25, maybe coming off a second straight 1,000 yard season. If I were him, either I get my $10m/year, or I wait to see what happens in free agency next year. I'm not signing for $6-7m/year this offseason.

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