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Hypothetical: Reich + Love or New HC + Trevor Lawrence

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Well... just for fun here's the thought experiment - the premise here is... imagine we can get to a position where we could draft Trevor Lawrence next year... most probably Frank loses his job in this case so you would have to find a new coach(maybe new GM too?), but you will have Trevor Lawrence. The other option is the Colts draft Jordan Love(or Herbert or Fromm or Eason or whoever your non-premium QB is) and Frank keeps his job. 

 

So would you sacrifice Frank(and potentially Ballard) for a world where you are able to draft Trevor Lawrence? 

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What if Lawrence decides to stay for his senior year? 

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Unpopular opinion, but a good Head Coach is just as important, if not more important, than a good QB. QBs only control one aspect of the game, whereas a coach controls everything. 
 

Also, in this scenario, I think they would have spoken to Irsay about the plan and both would retain their jobs next year. You can’t look at what they have done with extremely poor QB play, so you have to go back to how the team was under Luck to evaluate them

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How many years do you want to set the franchise back?  Throw this year away?  Then hire a new coach and staff the following year with a rookie QB who might or might not work out when this team is ready to win now with the right QB.  Doesn't make sense. 

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You gotta decide what HC is being paired with Lawrence.  I mean, Reich's track record with QBs thus far is a good one.  So I am pretty confident he'd be able ot get the most out of whoever we drafted. 

 

So if it's some new HC with a new QB, I think nah.  Too much unknown there.  If there's some weird scenario where a Sean Payton / Bill Belicheck comes to coach in Indy, then yeah, absolutely.  But that would require the most impossible things to go down.  So I'm probably sticking with Frank and whoever Ballard drafts.

 

 

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Unfortunately, Reich is still the HC Irsay and Ballard want to stay on.  Although I don't think Reich has the right demeanor to lead a team to a SB due to the decisions he has made in the 2019 season especially with the Vanilla calls, decisions to retain a kicker who cost us 3 or 4 games and I feel not proactive enough.

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This will never happen because it would mean trading away guys like Leonard, Nelson, and Moore. 

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Since there are no guarantees in life, I prefer the team I root for to try and win every year.

 

For those that think tanking and drafting Lawrence will bring the Colts to the promised land, I did a little research for you. Unless the guy you're tanking for has the last name of Manning, you're likely not winning a SB with a QB selected in the top 3 picks.

 

Let's go back in history to see which teams stunk and drafted a QB with the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft:

 

1998 - Manning = 1 SB win, 2 appearances, with team that drafted him, Leaf = nuff said

1999 - Tim Couch = ouch, Donovan McNabb = 1 SB appearance, Akili Smith (3rd pick) = who?

2000 - none

2001 - Michael Vick

2002 - David Carr, Joey Harrington

2003 - Carson Palmer

2004 - Eli Manning = 2 SB

2005 - Alex Smith

2006 - Vince Young

2007 - Jamarcus Russell

2008 - Matt Ryan - 1 SB appearance

2009 - Matthew Stafford

2010 - Sam Bradford

2011 - Cam Newton - 1 SB appearance

2012 - Andrew Luck, RG III

2013 - none

2014 - Blake Bortles

2015 - Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota

2016 - Jarod Goff (1 SB appearance), Carson Wentz (his team won SB with their backup QB)

2017 - Mitchell Trubisky

2018, 2019 - let's wait and see.

 

 

 

 

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I'd have to know who the new coach would be.

I like Reich, but he's had some head scratchers. Not anywhere near bad enough to want him gone, or lose confidence, but some of the game plans have been pee poor. I'd take a guy like Kyle Shanahan in a heartbeat though.

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd have to know who the new coach would be.

I like Reich, but he's had some head scratchers. Not anywhere near bad enough to want him gone, or lose confidence, but some of the game plans have been pee poor. I'd take a guy like Kyle Shanahan in a heartbeat though.

Well, that seems to be part of the premise... you wouldn't know who the coach is... I guess it boils down to unknown quality coach + elite QB prospect vs great coach + unknown quality QB. 

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 Frank has a number of attributes that make him a good leader.
 Frankly i want more creativity and i do not believe he will have it.
That said, on a whim today, let's go for Jordan Love and give Rivers a shot.

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18 minutes ago, stitches said:

Well, that seems to be part of the premise... you wouldn't know who the coach is... I guess it boils down to unknown quality coach + elite QB prospect vs great coach + unknown quality QB. 

 

So if we're spinning the wheel on coaches, with our luck we'd end up with...

Kitchens + Lawrence, no. 

I'll take Love and Reich.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

So if we're spinning the wheel on coaches, with our luck we'd end up with...

Kitchens + Lawrence, no. 

I'll take Love and Reich.

Eeewwwww.  I don't know how responsible Kitchens is for Baker's problems this year, but I don't think anyone could argue that he didn't play a significant role in it.  The thing is, Baker regressed, and he still wasn't really all that bad.  Wasn't great, but you'd think he would've improved on his 2018, which would've been pretty solid for a rookie.

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1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Eeewwwww.  I don't know how responsible Kitchens is for Baker's problems this year, but I don't think anyone could argue that he didn't play a significant role in it.  The thing is, Baker regressed, and he still wasn't really all that bad.  Wasn't great, but you'd think he would've improved on his 2018, which would've been pretty solid for a rookie.

I think Kitchens was fine 2018, but he was in over his head in 2019. And IMO they added too many pieces all at once, and had no chemistry. I'd take kitchens as a position coach, but never head coach.

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think Kitchens was fine 2018, but he was in over his head in 2019. And IMO they added too many pieces all at once, and had no chemistry. I'd take kitchens as a position coach, but never head coach.

He did go from position coach to HC pretty fast.  He ougth to get a second chance eventually.

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1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Eeewwwww.  I don't know how responsible Kitchens is for Baker's problems this year, but I don't think anyone could argue that he didn't play a significant role in it.  The thing is, Baker regressed, and he still wasn't really all that bad.  Wasn't great, but you'd think he would've improved on his 2018, which would've been pretty solid for a rookie.

Browns call you and say "#13 for Baker, take it or leave it, right now, no take backs, not second offers, it's now or never". Do you take it? I think I would. 

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There's no way we're going to be in position to draft Lawrence.

We're too good to lose 14-15 games.

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3 hours ago, stitches said:
 

So would you sacrifice Frank(and potentially Ballard) for a world where you are able to draft Trevor Lawrence? 


i think Jacoby would have to get hurt for this scenario to happen.  i doubt they would cut or trade him to intentionally tank 

 

i would not feel great about tanking but when it comes down to it i would take TL over both reich and ballard

 

i do like those two,  but if we look at their record they both did well when Luck was here and sub 500 without him 

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10 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

He did go from position coach to HC pretty fast.  He ougth to get a second chance eventually.

Very fast. They credited him with Mayfield's 2018 season, and rolled the dice. It'll be a while before he gets another shot.

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:


i think Jacoby would have to get hurt for this scenario to happen.  i doubt they would cut or trade him to intentionally tank 

 

i would not feel great about tanking but when it comes down to it i would take TL over both reich and ballard

 

i do like those two,  but if we look at their record they both did well when Luck was here and sub 500 without him 

Hoyer would still win at least 6 games lol... 

Our team is to solid to lose 13 or more, which is what it will take to get TL.

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15 minutes ago, stitches said:

Browns call you and say "#13 for Baker, take it or leave it, right now, no take backs, not second offers, it's now or never". Do you take it? I think I would. 

Without hesitation.  Don't think the questions surrounding 2019 override 2018 and the pre-draft love that I developed for his game.

 

And just for the record, if you would've added that scenario to yoru original post - that's the one I would choose.

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3 hours ago, Thunderbolt said:

Unfortunately, Reich is still the HC Irsay and Ballard want to stay on.  Although I don't think Reich has the right demeanor to lead a team to a SB due to the decisions he has made in the 2019 season especially with the Vanilla calls, decisions to retain a kicker who cost us 3 or 4 games and I feel not proactive enough.

Vanilla calls were mostly due to not having a QB who could execute a more dynamic playbook, in my opinion

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I actually think there’s a good chance that Reich won’t coach for too many more years anyways (no reasoning to back that up, just a feeling) so this is an interesting scenario to me. 

 

Part of me hopes, if Reich does retire sooner than later, that Sirianni is being groomed to eventually take over for Reich. Not that Eberflus probably isn’t the better candidate, but I prefer offensive HC’s.

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6 hours ago, Thunderbolt said:

Unfortunately, Reich is still the HC Irsay and Ballard want to stay on.  Although I don't think Reich has the right demeanor to lead a team to a SB due to the decisions he has made in the 2019 season especially with the Vanilla calls, decisions to retain a kicker who cost us 3 or 4 games and I feel not proactive enough.

Fortunately, this post is 100% opinion.  My own opinion is yes, he called vanilla plays.  Mostly because he had a QB who threw up all over the field whenever tasked to digest anything more than the most bland vanilla.

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