A Scenario where the Colts might trade down in the 1st

[Hoose]

Consider the following scenario:

1. Four QBs are taken before the Colts choose at #13. Tampa Bay jumps the Colts and grabs Love, after the Big 3 go as expected. 

2. Both DTs, Brown and Kinlaw, are also gone. 

3. Great WRs and OTs abound, including Jerry Jeudy. 

4. The Colts get several tempting offers to trade down for extra picks. 

5. Miami wants a top WR to grow with Tua, wants Jeudy, and offers the Colts #18 and #56 for #13 and the Colts' 4th rounder.

 

The question: do you make this trade? If so, who do you grab at #18? If not, who do you take at #13 under this set of facts?

 

 

 

[boo2202]

This would be worst case scenario. I would only do the trade down if there was still six blue chip players left on Ballard’s board. We need top end talent. I understand people don’t want a wr at 13, but it’s a need and lamb/Jeudy are elite talents. Sometimes you don’t need to make things difficult and just make the easy choice. 

[richard pallo]

34 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Consider the following scenario:

1. Four QBs are taken before the Colts choose at #13. Tampa Bay jumps the Colts and grabs Love, after the Big 3 go as expected. 

2. Both DTs, Brown and Kinlaw, are also gone. 

3. Great WRs and OTs abound, including Jerry Jeudy. 

4. The Colts get several tempting offers to trade down for extra picks. 

5. Miami wants a top WR to grow with Tua, wants Jeudy, and offers the Colts #18 and #56 for #13 and the Colts' 4th rounder.

 

The question: do you make this trade? If so, who do you grab at #18? If not, who do you take at #13 under this set of facts?

 

 

 

No.   But I would make it without giving up our 4th.  That said I think our FA success or lack thereof will have a big impact on all of this.  If we acquire a QB in FA or trade then everything changes.  If we fill a need at ER, DT or WR that could also change our strategy.  There are still a lot of unknowns.  What we do know is Ballard loves to trade back.  I think that would be his preferred course of action if we get our QB early.  

[pacolts56]

If Castonzo re-signs.... I would take the Miami offer..... assuming of course that Isaiah Simmons, Jeff Okudah and Chase Young are also gone.... and I would target RT Jedrick Wills or Tristan Wirfs at #18 and move Braden Smith to RG.

 

If Anthony retires.... I would accept the Miami trade but lean towards selecting the best LT prospect available at #18.

 

As tempting as Jeudy and Lamb are... there is plenty of WR depth in this class to address the position later, IMO.

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, Hoose said:

Consider the following scenario:

1. Four QBs are taken before the Colts choose at #13. Tampa Bay jumps the Colts and grabs Love, after the Big 3 go as expected. 

2. Both DTs, Brown and Kinlaw, are also gone. 

3. Great WRs and OTs abound, including Jerry Jeudy. 

4. The Colts get several tempting offers to trade down for extra picks. 

5. Miami wants a top WR to grow with Tua, wants Jeudy, and offers the Colts #18 and #56 for #13 and the Colts' 4th rounder.

 

The question: do you make this trade? If so, who do you grab at #18? If not, who do you take at #13 under this set of facts?

 

 

 

Nope. Jeudy is a top 5 prospect.  He is a Marvin Harrison clone

[Moosejawcolt]

Plus, if Ballard trades out with Jeudy at 13th, he should be fired on the spot with the trade scenario u outlined.

[Hoose]

Personally I’d take Jeudy too. But if Ballard likes other WRs almost as much, that extra second round pick would give him 4 good shots at one in the first two rounds. As well as a chance at a very good 3 Tech and OT. And perhaps a QB while he’s at it?

[Jdubu]

4 hours ago, Hoose said:

Consider the following scenario:

1. Four QBs are taken before the Colts choose at #13. Tampa Bay jumps the Colts and grabs Love, after the Big 3 go as expected. 

2. Both DTs, Brown and Kinlaw, are also gone. 

3. Great WRs and OTs abound, including Jerry Jeudy. 

4. The Colts get several tempting offers to trade down for extra picks. 

5. Miami wants a top WR to grow with Tua, wants Jeudy, and offers the Colts #18 and #56 for #13 and the Colts' 4th rounder.

 

The question: do you make this trade? If so, who do you grab at #18? If not, who do you take at #13 under this set of facts?

 

 

 

Interesting question and scenario. 
 

1. I still maintain we have our QB in Kelly so I don’t think it matters about the QB’s taken. I see what’s on the board now. 
 

2. I can’t see both the DT’s taken, Brown yes but not both. So I’d take either of those two DT’s but under your scenario, they are gone so I’d trade down. 
 

3. If AC retires and we have the chance to grab the first OT off the board, I go OT and no trade. 
 

5.  If the above criteria is met, we still have AC, both the DT’s off the board, I make the trade but not giving the 4th. I’d throw in next years 4th maybe but I’m staying in this draft picks. 
 

hard to answer who I take at 13 in your scenario as I don’t know who was taken already. Good question here. A different perspective. 

[pacolts56]

2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Plus, if Ballard trades out with Jeudy at 13th, he should be fired on the spot with the trade scenario u outlined.

 

1 hour ago, Hoose said:

Personally I’d take Jeudy too. But if Ballard likes other WRs almost as much, that extra second round pick would give him 4 good shots at one in the first two rounds. As well as a chance at a very good 3 Tech and OT. And perhaps a QB while he’s at it?

It would be tempting to refuse Miami's offer and take Jeudy for sure....it's a real hair-splitter.

 

But with the WR depth in this class, and the opportunity to cement an exceptional O-line with Wills or Wirfs on the right side if AC is re-signed.... or certainly in the case of AC retiring, selecting a top LT prospect.... I'd have to go OT.

 

If this scenario were to play out and we did have AC back for 2-3 years..... and Ballard were to select Jeudy at #13.... I wouldn't be up in arms. But I'd hate leaving Wills on the board.

 

If, however, AC retires and we were still to turn down the Dolphins and take Jeudy.... then we're operating with 2 second round picks and glaring voids at both LT and DT.... under which Jeudy, IMO, is a luxury item with our QB.... whoever he is, potentially running for his life.

[shasta519]

Who are you getting at #18 that compares to Jeudy as a prospect? 2nd round picks are great and all...but this team needs potential impact players...not more defensive project players.

[MPStack]

More blue chip prospects, less depth players. Translation, stay put or move up. 

[chad72]

8 hours ago, pacolts56 said:

 

It would be tempting to refuse Miami's offer and take Jeudy for sure....it's a real hair-splitter.

 

But with the WR depth in this class, and the opportunity to cement an exceptional O-line with Wills or Wirfs on the right side if AC is re-signed.... or certainly in the case of AC retiring, selecting a top LT prospect.... I'd have to go OT.

 

If this scenario were to play out and we did have AC back for 2-3 years..... and Ballard were to select Jeudy at #13.... I wouldn't be up in arms. But I'd hate leaving Wills on the board.

 

If, however, AC retires and we were still to turn down the Dolphins and take Jeudy.... then we're operating with 2 second round picks and glaring voids at both LT and DT.... under which Jeudy, IMO, is a luxury item with our QB.... whoever he is, potentially running for his life.

 

The key to answering this question will be Castanzo staying or leaving. You won't get a good OT in this draft that can be a franchise tackle on Day 2, IMO. The best DCs will take out the best WRs but if you have the best OL, you can play any style come January time, especially in the AFC where you will have teams like the Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs etc. that you will have to play outdoors, and those teams typically have been the playoff teams lately.

 

Yeah, Marvin Harrison won us a lot of playoff games single handedly.  If Castanzo stays, I might be OK with a WR drafted.

[MikeCurtis]

13 hours ago, pacolts56 said:

As tempting as Jeudy and Lamb are... there is plenty of WR depth in this class to address the position later, IMO.

Agreed

 

Build the lines

 

Get a QB...... if the right one slides

 

There will be WRs in round 3 that could contribute immediately

[AZColt11]

For me, it hinges on both Brown and Kinlaw being gone at 13.  IF that is the case, yeah, I take it and get more playmakers in the 2nd round.

[Shive]

14 hours ago, pacolts56 said:

and I would target RT Jedrick Wills or Tristan Wirfs at #18 and move Braden Smith to RG.

I just don't understand this logic and I've seen it on this forum a lot in the past few months. Braden Smith is one of the highest rated RT's in the league. Why would we draft a new RT and kick him inside to RG when he's proven to be a top RT?

A quality RG could be found for much less than a quality RT ($$ and/or draft capital) and would make much more sense.

[stitches]

17 hours ago, Hoose said:

Consider the following scenario:

1. Four QBs are taken before the Colts choose at #13. Tampa Bay jumps the Colts and grabs Love, after the Big 3 go as expected. 

2. Both DTs, Brown and Kinlaw, are also gone. 

3. Great WRs and OTs abound, including Jerry Jeudy. 

4. The Colts get several tempting offers to trade down for extra picks. 

5. Miami wants a top WR to grow with Tua, wants Jeudy, and offers the Colts #18 and #56 for #13 and the Colts' 4th rounder.

 

The question: do you make this trade? If so, who do you grab at #18? If not, who do you take at #13 under this set of facts?

 

 

 

I would do it BUT I would ask for their second next year. If we don't draft a QB this year, we will need ammunition to put ourselves in position to draft one next year. 

[BProland85]

If the Colts were to trade down with Miami, Ballard should be asking for no less than their 18th overall and first selection in round 2 straight up for 13 overall. 

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Shive said:

I just don't understand this logic and I've seen it on this forum a lot in the past few months. Braden Smith is one of the highest rated RT's in the league. Why would we draft a new RT and kick him inside to RG when he's proven to be a top RT?

A quality RG could be found for much less than a quality RT ($$ and/or draft capital) and would make much more sense.

I get the confusion.  My thought is that, if Castonzo comes back, you’ll need a successor soon anyway since he’s already talking about retirement.  A 1st Round OT could park at RT until needed at LT.  Smith could move on to RG to get our weak link (Glowinski) out of the starting unit, and move back to RT when Castonzo retires.  It would improve us now and secure the future.  While I don’t find it to be the best course of action, I would do it if the DTs and WRs I like are gone...

[MikeCurtis]

1 hour ago, Shive said:

I just don't understand this logic and I've seen it on this forum a lot in the past few months. Braden Smith is one of the highest rated RT's in the league. Why would we draft a new RT and kick him inside to RG when he's proven to be a top RT?

A quality RG could be found for much less than a quality RT ($$ and/or draft capital) and would make much more sense.

Braden Smith is a good RT... not great

 

He has the tools to be an All Pro at RG

 

 

[Shive]

2 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Braden Smith is a good RT... not great

 

He has the tools to be an All Pro at RG

 

 

Per PFF:

Quote

His regular season grade of 79.8 was seventh among all offensive tackles (fourth among right tackles), and his 86.4 run-blocking grade was third (also third among right tackles).

He graded out as one of the top RT's in the NFL. Him having the tools to be an all-pro RG is purely projection and the limited time we saw him there (even though he was a rookie) wasn't great. If he was a proven commodity at RG, I could see some of the logic, but you're moving a top RT to RG, then starting a rookie RT that may or may not play well. You're going from a top RT and average-below average RG (Glow) to complete uncertainty on the right side of the line.

 

You could get a good to great RG, which could help Smith play even better, and have a completely stacked OL without compromising the entire right side of the OL.

[DownHillRunner]

I did a mock where I traded the 13th pick back to the Bills so they can Jeudy. They need a WR1 there in Buffalo as they keep building up that offense around Josh Allen. It makes perfect since for Ballard to trade back. Ballard isn't drafting a WR in the 1st. The class is deep, and you can get a solid WR in the later rounds. If Love is there in the 20s, and if Ballard wants him, he can get him right there. Love is not making past the 20s in the first round. 

 

Why does everyone want to move Braden to RG? A PFF grade of almost 80 meaning he's held his own at RT despite scouts saying he didn't have the arms to pay RT. Doesn't sound like he needs to be moved. 

 

If you want a Guard sign Brandon Scherff. Just 28 years old, and quite frankly the best RG in the NFL not named Zack Martin. 82.2 pass blocking grade and an overall grade of 75.0....Sign him. 

[CheezyColt]

Signing Scherff would give us 4 first rounders and a high 2nd rounder on the O-Line. 3 of which on rookie deals that will cost a whole lot more in the next year or two. I don't think we'd be wise in signing Scherff. Our starting 5 is good as is, just need some new depth.

[pacolts56]

On 2/10/2020 at 1:18 PM, Shive said:

Per PFF:

He graded out as one of the top RT's in the NFL. Him having the tools to be an all-pro RG is purely projection and the limited time we saw him there (even though he was a rookie) wasn't great. If he was a proven commodity at RG, I could see some of the logic, but you're moving a top RT to RG, then starting a rookie RT that may or may not play well. You're going from a top RT and average-below average RG (Glow) to complete uncertainty on the right side of the line.

 

You could get a good to great RG, which could help Smith play even better, and have a completely stacked OL without compromising the entire right side of the OL.

Keep in mind that this is under the hypothetical scenario that the OP posed where all 4 QBs plus Kinlaw and Brown are off the board. Presumably... Young, Okudah and Simmons are gone as well... but that still only accounts for picks 1-9.

 

We HAVE to take someone at #13 or #18, and under this scenario.... IMO... value and need intersect with right side O-linemen Wills and Wirfs.

 

I see your rationale in the typical value range of OGs..... but Jedrick Wills, in many evaluations I've seen.... is being touted as the best RT prospect to come out of college in recent years.... and Wirfs is able to play both RT and RG....in which case Smith could remain at RT.

 

But I also have a hard time believing that Smith's play would fall off the cliff at RG.... the very position he played at Auburn which caught Ballard's attention in the first place.

 

Hopefully.... this scenario does not happen.... but if it does I believe the best outcome would be Wills with the trade down to the Dolphins #18 spot.... and I know that is a minority view to those who would want Jeudy.