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Greg Cosell on the QBs of the 2020 Draft


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1 minute ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I think what scares me the most with Jordan Love is how fast he rises, WHEN NO GAMES ARE HAPPENING.  I always get a little nervous when people fall in love with someone based on their attributes and not on their play.  Not saying he can't play.  I actually really like him also, but he seems BOOM or BUST.

People don't watch Utah state during the season. No one watches Utah state during the season, except some wackos like me(and only because I had a suspicion we will need a QB). It's normal for players to start climbing when there is nothing else to watch(season is over mostly, only SB left) and people are turning to draft season the all-star games and bowls and people are turning to the tape of players they didn't watch during the season. It's only natural. 

 

I agree he's a boom or bust. I just don't mind that he's a boom or bust player. It depends more on what %'s you put the likelihood of him turning into a great player... 

 

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I've mentioned before that I really like Greg Cosell and his analysis of both the NFL and draft prospects, he's one of the few analysts that I know can talk dispassionately about players and Xs and Os

Totally agree with him about Tua. I just don’t see this great prospect that some others do.   Couple that with the injuries and I don’t want anything to do with him. Certainly not a trade up

Tua has to go to the right team. I don’t know if I like him in Miami with Chan Gaiiley. I think Herbert fits better there. I like him in Carolina with Joe Brady who has worked with Brees and Burrow. 

1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

Its not the only components, of course

 

Hurts is a day 2, day 3 guy

 

Tua is a top 5...... no comparison really

Depending on what team/scheme they end up with, Hurts could very well "look" better in the NFL. I honestly don't think either will have a lot of success, but much of what folks are saying about Hurts, is the same things they said about Lamar Jackson. Take a read if you have time.

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/lamar-jackson?id=32194a41-4332-3395-efb0-6c7b75de50af

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38 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Ryan Tannehill proved this to be true. Cousins did as well to a lesser extent.

Over the years, I've seen many good prospects get ruined by bad teams, or bad scheme fits. And I've seen plenty of QBs with far less fan fare succeed in the right landing spot.

 

I think Indy is about as good as landing spot for a QB that there is in the NFL. 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I'd say Hurts isn't the passer Tua is, but Tua is not near the athlete that Hurts is. They both had similar AVG and completion %. I'd say both their successes has been, and will be, highly dependent on scheme (past and future).

 

I don't even think Hurts is that great of an athlete, at least not from a "running/elusive QB' perspective. Obviously Tua wasn't asked to do what Jalen did because he was that much better of a passing QB, as well as also not being as physically built like Jalen was either. However, I did admire how Tua was more hesitant to run, when he could have, and decided to continue plays from the pocket. I also don't think its fair to compare completion % when one was good at completing intermediate/deep throws (15+) across all 3 sections(L, M, R) where the other was really only good 10 yards and in and was borderline awful on throws outside of the numbers. Now I couldn't find Hurts' passing charts for this year at Oklahoma, but having watched him I didn't notice much of a difference in his actual play there compared to Alabama. Of course Riley's offense is very QB friendly and BIG12 defenses are far from good, so certain % across the field may have been better, but I doubt it was because of him having gotten better. 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I think what scares me the most with Jordan Love is how fast he rises, WHEN NO GAMES ARE HAPPENING.  I always get a little nervous when people fall in love with someone based on their attributes and not on their play.  Not saying he can't play.  I actually really like him also, but he seems BOOM or BUST.

He was actually graded a higher after his 2018 season. I think what you are seeing now are evaluations based off of his entire body of work, with understanding of the context surrounding the changes from 2018 to 2019.

 

As far as boom or bust... that describes about every first round QB ever :D

 

Over a 25 year sample, 42.1% of QBs taken in the 1st round have had at least one Pro Bowl year, while 40.4% busted. That leaves only about 17.5% in the middle.

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14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

He was actually graded a higher after his 2018 season. I think what you are seeing now are evaluations based off of his entire body of work, with understanding of the context surrounding the changes from 2018 to 2019.

 

As far as boom or bust... that describes about every first round QB ever :D

 

Over a 25 year sample, 42.1% of QBs taken in the 1st round have had at least one Pro Bowl year, while 40.4% busted. That leaves only about 17.5% in the middle.

mitch_trubisky_pro_bowl_3_e1554753575841

 

:dunno:

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This really would be the best case scenerio for the colts if they do really like Love. I wouldn’t mind if Kiper was correct here. Drew lock is a great example how the broncos waited and still got the guy they wanted.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

the picture of Trubisky.  That you move up for Love and he turns out to be that guy and not Mahomes.  Like Dakich said in the Ballard interview, no one wants to be Ryan Pace, lol

I mean... sure, but ...you are never going to get a franchise QB if you don't try. On the other hand you have Watson, Mahomes, Wentz, etc. You win some, you lose some. There is no surefire pick in the draft. Even the Burrows and Chase Youngs of the world can bust. Kinlaw or Lamb/Jeudy can bust, whoever OT falls to us at 13 can bust too. The only way to avoid the risk of drafting a bust is to not draft anyone. 

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2 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I don't even think Hurts is that great of an athlete, at least not from a "running/elusive QB' perspective.

Most draft reviews would disagree with you as well as most who have watched him play. While he's no freak like Lamar, and does not have his twitch, he's more than fast enough to kill teams on dives and other QB planned runs. And his build up speed is very good. Given he was 18th in all of college FB in rushing (best QB after Navy's QB who doesn't pass), I'd say he runs pretty well. 

2 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

Obviously Tua wasn't asked to do what Jalen did because he was that much better of a passing QB, as well as also not being as physically built like Jalen was either. However, I did admire how Tua was more hesitant to run, when he could have, and decided to continue plays from the pocket. I also don't think its fair to compare completion % when one was good at completing intermediate/deep throws (15+) across all 3 sections(L, M, R) where the other was really only good 10 yards and in and was borderline awful on throws outside of the numbers. Now I couldn't find Hurts' passing charts for this year at Oklahoma, but having watched him I didn't notice much of a difference in his actual play there compared to Alabama. Of course Riley's offense is very QB friendly and BIG12 defenses are far from good, so certain % across the field may have been better, but I doubt it was because of him having gotten better. 

If you want to compare them head to head in a like environment, look at their 2018 numbers when they both played for Bama. Hurts actually had a higher completion %, and similar AVG and passer rating. The best game to look at is actually vs UGA when they both played. Hurts easily out played Tua in that game, basically winning it in the 4th (passing for a TD, and running for a TD) with a nice comeback in ATL.

 

A case can also be made that when Tua took over, he had far more talented WRs, and the O scheme changed a bunch with all the shifting at OC/Co-OC, etc.. Gattis alone was a huge boost.

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17 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

the picture of Trubisky.  That you move up for Love and he turns out to be that guy and not Mahomes.  Like Dakich said in the Ballard interview, no one wants to be Ryan Pace, lol

Serious question. Does anyone think that maybe Mitches issues are  coaching. I have faith in our coaching staff to develop a QB. Maybe Mitch is not in a good system and getting bad coaching. It’s not always on the QB.

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31 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

This really would be the best case scenerio for the colts if they do really like Love. I wouldn’t mind if Kiper was correct here. Drew lock is a great example how the broncos waited and still got the guy they wanted.

 

 

Kiper is wrong more times that he is right. He's got some truly LOL predictions.

Here are a few. A quick google will find you more.

https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/mel-kipers-top-10-nfl-draft-blunders.html

 

I'm still waiting on him to keep his promise over his Jimmy Clausen prediction. 

 

In short, his hair.... is magnificent... his predictions are hot take like.

 

41 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

that is what scares the crap out of everybody.

 

I still to this day don't understand the love that guy got. Got to give it to the Bears though, they've been ride or die with him.

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The safest play is to go get an experienced QB like Carr or Bridgewater for example and try to win with a proven NFL QB.  Keep building the team through the draft and hopefully get a impact FA or two.  Maybe Ballard drafts a QB in a mid round who knows.  The 49er's got Jimmy G by trading for him.  All week I have heard reporters refer to him as a game manager.  Many times.  The strength of that team is it's defense and run game.  So yes we need to improve at QB but selling out for one of these QB's has it's risks.  Does Ballard strike you as a big risk taker?  Not me.  

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7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Serious question. Does anyone think that maybe Mitches issues are  coaching. I have faith in our coaching staff to develop a QB. Maybe Mitch is not in a good system and getting bad coaching. It’s not always on the QB.

Good point.  Maybe he's another one who could use a change of scenery, coaching and system. 

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13 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Most draft reviews would disagree with you as well as most who have watched him play. While he's no freak like Lamar, and does not have his twitch, he's more than fast enough to kill teams on dives and other QB planned runs. And his build up speed is very good. Given he was 18th in all of college FB in rushing (best QB after Navy's QB who doesn't pass), I'd say he runs pretty well. 

 

What do you think is the over/under on Hurts' 40 time? 

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3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

The safest play is to go get an experienced QB like Carr or Bridgewater for example and try to win with a proven NFL QB.  Keep building the team through the draft and hopefully get a impact FA or two.  Maybe Ballard drafts a QB in a mid round who knows.  The 49er's got Jimmy G by trading for him.  All week I have heard reporters refer to him as a game manager.  Many times.  The strength of that team is it's defense and run game.  So yes we need to improve at QB but selling out for one of these QB's has it's risks.  Does Ballard strike you as a big risk taker?  Not me.  

No thanks on Teddy... 

 

And if Jimmy G is a game manager, he ranks on average top 10 in the 4 core QB metrics (QBR, compl%, AVG, YPG). That's a very very good game manager. We traded for the wrong NE back up.

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

What do you think is the over/under on Hurts' 40 time? 

He ran high 4.4s a few years ago at Bama testing. Could be home cooking, but I doubt by much.

He's got very good long speed, just not twitchy like LJ. 

 

I see him running either high 4.4s again or low 4.5s.. I think mid 4.5s would be the worst case scenaro. I'm sure he'll get some good combine test training, so wouldn't be surprised if he was tops in all QBs in the 40.

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Just now, EastStreet said:

He ran high 4.4s a few years ago at Bama testing. Could be home cooking, but I doubt by much.

He's got very good long speed, just not twitchy like LJ. 

 

I see him running either high 4.4s again or low 4.5s.. I think mid 4.5s would be the worst case scenaro. I'm sure he'll get some good combine test training, so wouldn't be surprised if he was tops in all QBs in the 40.

I would take the over on 4.5... he doesn't look THIS athletic to me. 

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

You think he'd be 4.6 or over?

mid 4.6s? I don't know... maybe I'm undervaluing his athleticism because I've been trying to fit him in the Lamar mode and it's not really fair to do it this way... Maybe his long-speed will be better than I expect, but his agility testing might not be? 

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6 minutes ago, stitches said:

mid 4.6s? I don't know... maybe I'm undervaluing his athleticism because I've been trying to fit him in the Lamar mode and it's not really fair to do it this way... Maybe his long-speed will be better than I expect, but his agility testing might not be? 

Yup, you can't grade him vs LJ lol. Lamar is a 4.3s guy, and also has phenomenal twitch (agility). He's the definition of Freak. 

 

I'd almost bet a paycheck that Hurts runs better than 4.6. If he just gets in the 4.55 range, that's exceptional from a QB perspective. I just google his 40, and per Bama, he ran a 4.48 in 2017. If you look at his highlights, you'll see the speed, especially long or in the open field. 

 

I'd bet he grades out in the top 3 in the 40, and top 7 in agility (out of all the QBs).

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup, you can't grade him vs LJ lol. Lamar is a 4.3s guy, and also has phenomenal twitch (agility). He's the definition of Freak. 

 

I'd almost bet a paycheck that Hurts runs better than 4.6. If he just gets in the 4.55 range, that's exceptional from a QB perspective. I just google his 40, and per Bama, he ran a 4.48 in 2017. If you look at his highlights, you'll see the speed, especially long or in the open field. 

 

I'd bet he grades out in the top 3 in the 40, and top 7 in agility (out of all the QBs).

Yeah, I saw that 4.48 time and I still don't believe it. Lol...

 

4.55 is plenty fast for QBs, but the problem is that in the way I imagine him being used (similar to Lamar - as a foundation to the offense through the threat of his run game... Tons and tons of designed runs, etc.) you almost have to not treat him as a QB, but as a versatile weapon who needs speed... Not sure if he will end up with the right team that is willing to build their offense around his best attributes. I also am worried about his health. Go watch how many horrible hits he takes every game when he runs. Not sure this is a good recipe for long career.

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

Yeah, I saw that 4.48 time and I still don't believe it. Lol...

 

4.55 is plenty fast for QBs, but the problem is that in the way I imagine him being used (similar to Lamar - as a foundation to the offense through the threat of his run game... Tons and tons of designed runs, etc.) you almost have to not treat him as a QB, but as a versatile weapon who needs speed... Not sure if he will end up with the right team that is willing to build their offense around his best attributes. I also am worried about his health. Go watch how many horrible hits he takes every game when he runs. Not sure this is a good recipe for long career.

If I had to pick and exact speed for him, I'd say 4.53.... That's my bet and I'm sticking too it :-)

 

4.55 on a normal year is likely to the the near the top of the board for QBs. If he goes somewhere that runs an RPO heavy O with a lot of QB dives and such, he could be very effective. I really don't like that kind of O, but we know it can work. Too risky for me.

 

He'd make an absolutely perfect back up for Lamar Jackson though if they don't want to keep RG3. Also a good back up for Murray, Allen, and Watson. 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

No thanks on Teddy... 

 

And if Jimmy G is a game manager, he ranks on average top 10 in the 4 core QB metrics (QBR, compl%, AVG, YPG). That's a very very good game manager. We traded for the wrong NE back up.

Yup.   I can see him being the next game manager to win one on Sunday.  

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35 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Yup.   I can see him being the next game manager to win one on Sunday.  

 

I think SF is simply trying to bring him along slowly, and leaning on their running game. I'd bet they give him more and more next year, and folks will stop calling him a GM.

 

I think he loses though this weekend.

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1 hour ago, LockeDown said:

Hurts is more known for his strength. He power lifted some unbelievable amounts for a QB. 

He reminds me of a leaner Cam Newton without the disgusting ego.... 

 

"When you look good, you play good. When you play good, they pay good..."

PUUUUUUUUKE

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

He reminds me of a leaner Cam Newton without the disgusting ego.... 

 

"When you look good, you play good. When you play good, they pay good..."

PUUUUUUUUKE

I think Hurts is a good dude. If he were an elite passer I would want him cause I think he’s mentally very tough.

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1 minute ago, LockeDown said:

I think Hurts is a good dude. If he were an elite passer I would want him cause I think he’s mentally very tough.

Yup, he's a very good guy, and good leader. Props to him on how he handled getting benched. 

He was quiet, worked hard, came back and won the SEC championship when Tua couldn't, transferred, and took his new team farther than Bama after changing systems.

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17 hours ago, stitches said:

I mean... sure, but ...you are never going to get a franchise QB if you don't try. On the other hand you have Watson, Mahomes, Wentz, etc. You win some, you lose some. There is no surefire pick in the draft. Even the Burrows and Chase Youngs of the world can bust. Kinlaw or Lamb/Jeudy can bust, whoever OT falls to us at 13 can bust too. The only way to avoid the risk of drafting a bust is to not draft anyone. 

Wentz is a good example. Like Love he came from an extremely small school. Still went #2 overall though. And a lot of analysts said that neither him nor Goff were the 1st or 2nd best players in the draft that year. The franchise’s still took a swing and moved up to get them, because you have to for QB’s. Just because the Bears swung and missed doesn’t mean we should be discouraged.

 

Plus there were plenty of signs that Trubisky would bust. He was a one year starter (couldn’t beat out scrub QBs at UNC) who wasn’t voted a team captain. Big red flags.

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1 hour ago, wig said:

 

Please show me the similarities aside from their college uniforms

It's his demeanor, he once made a comment that he can live without football and football wasn't his life. That is not what anyone wants to hear. He is too laid back for my taste. Just like Harrington was, Harrington cared about playing the piano more than playing football. We just went through Luck retiring early because he didn't need football to live a great life, don't need to go through that again. Harrington was a great college QB but had everyone fooled once he turned pro. I would'nt draft Herbert but that is my opinion.

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On 1/31/2020 at 6:32 AM, stitches said:

I've mentioned before that I really like Greg Cosell and his analysis of both the NFL and draft prospects, he's one of the few analysts that I know can talk dispassionately about players and Xs and Os and I value his input because he does the work and has tons of experience breaking down film and I always learn something from him. He was on Tennessee radio yesterday and here's what he had to say on some of the QBs(he talks about the Superbowl in the first half of the interview and about the prospects in the second half(at about the 20 mark of the interview for the last 10 minutes):

 

https://post.futurimedia.com/wgfx/playlist/14/listen-7586.html?cb=1580414765.455817

 

 

I'm not sure but it seems like Cosell has Love ranked no. 2 behind only Burrow. He's lower on Tua than most, higher on Love than most. His under the radar prospect is James Morgan out of FIU

The more I watch Love the more I see top end NFL QB traits.  I have no idea what his info process abilities are, which trumps physical skills, but the way he moves, loads and throws from balance with power or touch at the flick of a wrist is rare.

 

Ive been skeptical but am starting to believe he could be the guy...and I get what you are saying.  I also share your belief that it’s better to have the potential for greatness than a high floor...be great or get on with it. 
 

Can’t wait to see how Love shows out the rest of the way.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here's Greg Cosell on the Ross Tucker podcast. They talked about the first 3 QBs in the draft(Tua, Burrow, Herbert) and they will talk about other QBs next week. I will not transcribe what he said about Burrow and Tua, because it's very similar to what he said 15 days ago in the OP I posted.

 

https://www.podcastone.com/episode/Greg-Cosell---2020-QB-Preview

 

I will transcribe what he said about Herbert here(Cosell goes on at about 4:00 and talks first about some of the FA QBs - Rivers, Dalton, Taysom Hill?, and then he talks about the 3 QBs):

 

Quote

Herbert - I think he will be a fascinating evaluation. We know he's going to be drafted high, because QBs are drafted high, so that's irrelevant. He's got many desirable traits. He's got size, he's got armstrength, he's got excellent movement and mobility, but I think there are some things that the tape show ... I think he's not a timing/anticipation guy, I think his ball placement was at times erratic and inconsistent. There were times he reminded me of Josh Allen - big, physical, strong, powerful arm, excellent movement with the ability to make outstanding throws both in the pocket and outside, but very erratic and inconsistent with his ball placement. Can that be cleaned up at all? We'll see. If not, then I think he might need to be on a team that features a strong defense and solid running game. You are going to have to decide what you think he is. He's not really a ball distributor... in the sense of... you think of QBs that drop back and just are precise and are just boom-boom-boom-boom[my note - I think he means he's not a rhythm QB who can consistently drop back and move the ball], he's not a distributor. 

 

He teases he will talk about Jake Luton from Oregon State next week. Seems like he likes him. 

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