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Daniel Jeremiah's first mock of the 2020 Draft season (merge)


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Hey, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady kinds grow on trees in later rounds, so we will throw darts in Rounds 2 and 3 and will come away with a franchise QB for sure.

 

#spoiledfanbasewithgoodpastQBfortune

 

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5 hours ago, stitches said:

My opinion is that his ball placement is good and he has excellent touch. He's actually one of the more accurate QBs in this draft especially when he's not pressured.  :dunno: I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one. 

 

I agree about his decision-making though... needs improvements. Too many YOLO throws. 

 

I'm sorry. Throwing wild passes into coverage is not accurate or touch.

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8 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I'm sorry. Throwing wild passes into coverage is not accurate or touch.

I'm sorry but I'm not talking about throwing wild passes into coverage. BTW even though he has some of those, those are not his biggest problem. What does that even mean? This is a meaningless statement you just made. Throwing wild passes into coverage doesn't prevent a QB from being accurate or having touch. This shows poor decisionmaking, not accuracy or touch. 

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37 minutes ago, stitches said:

I'm sorry but I'm not talking about throwing wild passes into coverage. BTW even though he has some of those, those are not his biggest problem. What does that even mean? This is a meaningless statement you just made. Throwing wild passes into coverage doesn't prevent a QB from being accurate or having touch. This shows poor decisionmaking, not accuracy or touch. 

 

QBs throw into double coverage, but they have the accuracy to fit the ball in. Love just throws it just because and you can't do that. You know how people complained about Andrew's bone head ints, that's love

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001098476/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospect-rankings-for-2020-nfl-draft-10?itm_source=parsely-api?icampaign=trendingNews

 

Not a ton of surprises in this one, but I do like the breakdown summaries.  On the two developmental prospects, Eason and Love, his opinions on are spot on.  Couldn't agree more with those thoughts.  I've also heard on Eason that his work ethic is lacking, which is very concerning and I'm not sure I see Love as a first round QB, at least at #13 Overall.  But both those guys need to be holding a clipboard their first year.  Need to watch more of Love, but Eason I definitely think is no higher than a late one and Jeremiah probably has it right as a late 2 at this point.  Nevertheless, both guys have issues that are not insurmountable.

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From what I understand his top 50 is what his evaluation tells him and his mock drafts are that in combination with what he's hearing from his connections in the league. 

 

Here I will list surprising/notable rankings:

10. Mekhi Becton - OT1 in his list. 

19. Brandon Aiyuk... I really like him too, but Jeremiah really really likes him.

25. Andrew Thomas - kind of weird seeing him this low

20-21 Love-Herbert... Love over Herbert not just in his mock but in his ranking is interesting. I have them ranked the same, but I'm not sure most people do. 

27. Jaylon Johnson from Utah in the top 30... I like him for us if we want a CB at 34... not sure he drops to us. 

 

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A respectful reminder....   Jeremiah is going to do a number of these,  and some names are going to fall off the board and some new names are going to pop up....

 

So,  odds are he'll do one before the Combine...    then after the combine....    then after the Pro Days....    and then likely right before the draft...     And with each new one,  look for the new names that appear and the old names that leave....

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 7:53 PM, FalseStart said:

Not sure how many good points you have listed there...1 (Southern California isn’t special...Money is just money...Family Time is key) but he will still get >90% of his mock draft wrong...(Even with all his contacts) like everyone else. You and me included. 

 

Not sure why you're trying to push back so hard....

 

1.   Making 3-5 times more money(maybe more?)  for doing less work is typically all it takes to get someone to change their job or career.    That alone is typically enough for most people.

 

But you can add to that....

 

2.    Whether it's Southern California, or if it was New York,  it's one location and that beats the life of a scout who is typically away from home more than half the year staying in not great hotels and putting in 12-16 hour days in far away places.

 

3.    He doesn't have to worry about having to uproot his family again because his team didn't ahve a good year.  Jeremiah was a scout for 3 different teams.   That's three moves for the family. In his TV job,  he's not going anywhere.

 

4.    He's likely doing a fair amount of his work from the comfort of his own home.   He can view tape at his home.   And he has a staff of people that help with the show he works on.  

 

5.    He gets to pick and choose when and where he goes on the road.   Doubtful he has someone giving him orders.   He's likely his own boss.   

 

6.    Far less stress.    It's not do good or get fired.   To be clear,  he has to be good at his job,  but it's easier in ths setting than it is as a scout.    No one is looking over his shoulder and breathing down his neck.    Life is good for DJ.

 

If you don't like him,  or like someone else more,  great.    Follow them.   But I'm not aware of any anti-DJ movement either from complaints coming from the NFL or from media observers.

 

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16 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

How much does Becton weigh?

Some sites say 370 some say 340

 

He is drawing Trent Brown and Bryant McKinnie comparisons, I bet he does not get past the first round:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/all-aboard--the-mekhi-becton-hype-train-is-leaving-the-station

 

I bet he does not get past the Bucs or Falcons, who both need OL help, IMO.

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18 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I kept thinking there weren’t good 3Ts after Brown and Kinlaw but guys keep popping up. Ross Blacklock at 18 is really high. I’ll have to do my research on him.

 

If Love, Herbert, Kinlaw and Brown are gone by No.13, I would move back and see if Becton would still be on the board in the late teens or early 20s. 

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22 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001098476/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospect-rankings-for-2020-nfl-draft-10?itm_source=parsely-api?icampaign=trendingNews

 

Not a ton of surprises in this one, but I do like the breakdown summaries.  On the two developmental prospects, Eason and Love, his opinions on are spot on.  Couldn't agree more with those thoughts.  I've also heard on Eason that his work ethic is lacking, which is very concerning and I'm not sure I see Love as a first round QB, at least at #13 Overall.  But both those guys need to be holding a clipboard their first year.  Need to watch more of Love, but Eason I definitely think is no higher than a late one and Jeremiah probably has it right as a late 2 at this point.  Nevertheless, both guys have issues that are not insurmountable.

Why was a top 50 rankings thread merged with a mock draft?  Not even the same thing...

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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

A respectful reminder....   Jeremiah is going to do a number of these,  and some names are going to fall off the board and some new names are going to pop up....

 

So,  odds are he'll do one before the Combine...    then after the combine....    then after the Pro Days....    and then likely right before the draft...     And with each new one,  look for the new names that appear and the old names that leave....

 

Writers have to stay relevant, but can't keep reposting the same articles verbatim.   Some of the rearranging is natural, but more often than not, it's just to keep you interested.  That's their job, first.  Then it's accuracy, but they'll defer to keeping our interest over being accurate if another article is necessary.

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10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Not sure why you're trying to push back so hard....

 

1.   Making 3-5 times more money(maybe more?)  for doing less work is typically all it takes to get someone to change their job or career.    That alone is typically enough for most people.

 

But you can add to that....

 

2.    Whether it's Southern California, or if it was New York,  it's one location and that beats the life of a scout who is typically away from home more than half the year staying in not great hotels and putting in 12-16 hour days in far away places.

 

3.    He doesn't have to worry about having to uproot his family again because his team didn't ahve a good year.  Jeremiah was a scout for 3 different teams.   That's three moves for the family. In his TV job,  he's not going anywhere.

 

4.    He's likely doing a fair amount of his work from the comfort of his own home.   He can view tape at his home.   And he has a staff of people that help with the show he works on.  

 

5.    He gets to pick and choose when and where he goes on the road.   Doubtful he has someone giving him orders.   He's likely his own boss.   

 

6.    Far less stress.    It's not do good or get fired.   To be clear,  he has to be good at his job,  but it's easier in ths setting than it is as a scout.    No one is looking over his shoulder and breathing down his neck.    Life is good for DJ.

 

If you don't like him,  or like someone else more,  great.    Follow them.   But I'm not aware of any anti-DJ movement either from complaints coming from the NFL or from media observers.

 

You have changed the narrative of my comment... and continue to create some sort of commentary that then feeds whatever position it is your trying to support...It is not pushing back to question media or making a comment Concerning their limited...second hand reporting. All other tangents you have listed above are of your own creation. Take care. 

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On 1/21/2020 at 2:08 PM, Chloe6124 said:

Two of the best guys in doing mocks have Love before Herbert.

If it gets to this point after the combine, the pro day work outs and the private meets, will it come down to the 3rd largest franchise decision in the modern era for the Colts? Could it be CB’s Polians type

of decision? The Manning vs Leaf type of decision with Love vs Hebert? If you have both to choose from and you miss, you are set back for 4-5 years and you’ve turned over GM and coaching staff again. 
 

whoever CB picks, whether it be a QB or something else, it better be right and it better correct the ship or CB and FR won’t be here in 2 years imho. While I think CB and FR get some rope for Luck throwing the entire rebuild plan away when he suddenly quit, the staff will have to show the ability to overcome that huge loss and in a hurry. Obviously 2019 failed to prove they could by counting on JB and Vinny to score enough points, what they do this offseason to improve the team will matter for their jobs in 2021 imho. 

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23 hours ago, stitches said:

From what I understand his top 50 is what his evaluation tells him and his mock drafts are that in combination with what he's hearing from his connections in the league. 

 

Here I will list surprising/notable rankings:

10. Mekhi Becton - OT1 in his list. 

19. Brandon Aiyuk... I really like him too, but Jeremiah really really likes him.

25. Andrew Thomas - kind of weird seeing him this low

20-21 Love-Herbert... Love over Herbert not just in his mock but in his ranking is interesting. I have them ranked the same, but I'm not sure most people do. 

27. Jaylon Johnson from Utah in the top 30... I like him for us if we want a CB at 34... not sure he drops to us. 

 

I've been watching Love today and I am definitely more of a fan than Eason.  Most of what I watched was his 2018 season.  I might've seen all youtube has to offer, but not sure.  I'm not really sure why the degradation in his statline in 2019, other than I noticed that his offensive coordinator AND head coach changed between seasons.  I suspect that has a lot to do with it, and possibly vastly different offensive schemes.  If his 2019 offensve scheme is more "college-y" I'd say atthis point, with my limited football knowledge, I'd pounce on him with our first 2nd rounder.  Still hesitant about a first on him (depending on what 2019 shows). 

 

My initial thoughts on Love though are that I really like his anticipation and reads of basic NFL concepts (i.e. post/wheel, hitch fade/hitch).  He can progress quickly, but he does tend to stare down receivers a bit too long occasionally.  That said, his progression speed is ahead of the curve I think. He's dangerous outside the pocket and throwing on the run looks natural to him.  His eyes are always downfield and I'm really curious as to his run times.  He doesn't look like Mahomes quick, but at least as quick as A.Rodgers, which is more than enough.  In the short/intermediate, kid is on point with his accuracy and touch most the time.  He'll have the occasional misses where it appears the ball got away from him.  But his placement and accuracy suffer wildly the further downfield he throws.  It's downright scary sometimes.  Also, I wish he attacked the middle/intermediate field more.  I expect to see more of the negatives I'm reading about in his 2019 campaign, as I'm sure that's where a lot of the stuff comes from that I'm reading online.  But despite the negatives, there's a lot to be excited about and I can see why you really like him.  

 

Interested in watching the Oregon kid also.  But I've watched 3 QBs, Burrow, Love (2018 only, 2019 tomorrow maybe) and Eason, and that's how I'd rank them so far.  Burrow is the only true 1st round grade I'd give.  I don't know Love would "get a 1st round grade" but with the premium on them, I wouldn't be surprised if he want that high.   Eason is definitely not 1st round talent to me.  He reminds me of a Josh Allen, but not as good.

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23 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I've been watching Love today and I am definitely more of a fan than Eason.  Most of what I watched was his 2018 season.  I might've seen all youtube has to offer, but not sure.  I'm not really sure why the degradation in his statline in 2019, other than I noticed that his offensive coordinator AND head coach changed between seasons.  I suspect that has a lot to do with it, and possibly vastly different offensive schemes.  If his 2019 offensve scheme is more "college-y" I'd say atthis point, with my limited football knowledge, I'd pounce on him with our first 2nd rounder.  Still hesitant about a first on him (depending on what 2019 shows). 

 

My initial thoughts on Love though are that I really like his anticipation and reads of basic NFL concepts (i.e. post/wheel, hitch fade/hitch).  He can progress quickly, but he does tend to stare down receivers a bit too long occasionally.  That said, his progression speed is ahead of the curve I think. He's dangerous outside the pocket and throwing on the run looks natural to him.  His eyes are always downfield and I'm really curious as to his run times.  He doesn't look like Mahomes quick, but at least as quick as A.Rodgers, which is more than enough.  In the short/intermediate, kid is on point with his accuracy and touch most the time.  He'll have the occasional misses where it appears the ball got away from him.  But his placement and accuracy suffer wildly the further downfield he throws.  It's downright scary sometimes.  Also, I wish he attacked the middle/intermediate field more.  I expect to see more of the negatives I'm reading about in his 2019 campaign, as I'm sure that's where a lot of the stuff comes from that I'm reading online.  But despite the negatives, there's a lot to be excited about and I can see why you really like him.  

 

Interested in watching the Oregon kid also.  But I've watched 3 QBs, Burrow, Love (2018 only, 2019 tomorrow maybe) and Eason, and that's how I'd rank them so far.  Burrow is the only true 1st round grade I'd give.  I don't know Love would "get a 1st round grade" but with the premium on them, I wouldn't be surprised if he want that high.   Eason is definitely not 1st round talent to me.  He reminds me of a Josh Allen, but not as good.

Good summary. I probably like him a bit better than you, BUT a lot of my liking of Love is based on what he can be rather than what he is now and it's as much a bet on him as it is on Reich and our coaching staff so I can understand people not willing to go 1st round on him. My thought process is - whoever we pick will  most likely sit to start the year and most probably the full year so... I'd rather just go with the highest upside and best traits if you trust your coaching staff and I do trust them so... I think if you love him, you go get him in the first. At least that's my thought process here. 

 

About his situation in 2019. He lost his whole offensive coaching staff. HC, OC, etc. He also lost 9 of the 10 starters on offense before the start of the year and he lost his new starting OTs by game 3 to injuries so yeah... not the most ideal situation. A weird trend in his play in 2019 was his first half-second half splits. He was playing very good football in 1st halves and was forcing things a lot in second halves - he was the player with most turnover worthy plays in second halves in the whole country. (My contention is that as his team was falling behind, he was trying to force too many throws and was playing a lot of hero ball trying to get his team back into games - this is not an excuse, he still needs to be better than this and make better decisions) I would love to hear your impressions of 2019 season too. Thanks. 

 

About Eason - my comparison is more along the lines of Drew Lock and prime Joe Flacco. He's not really anywhere close to as mobile as Josh Allen IMO.  

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Sorry this is long.  I almost just started a Jordan Love thread, because this reply is beginning to be an entire scouting report at this point, especially if you rope in my first comment on his 2018 film.  But I'm having too much fun and work is dead soo...take that "Real-World-Responsibility"!

 

20 hours ago, stitches said:

A weird trend in his play in 2019 was his first half-second half splits. He was playing very good football in 1st halves and was forcing things a lot in second halves - he was the player with most turnover worthy plays in second halves in the whole country. (My contention is that as his team was falling behind, he was trying to force too many throws and was playing a lot of hero ball trying to get his team back into games - this is not an excuse, he still needs to be better than this and make better decisions) I would love to hear your impressions of 2019 season too. Thanks. 

There's some merit to what you're saying and I'm not dismissing it at all.  It's relevant, but the "still not an excuse" bit is every bit as relevant and true.  Perhaps even more so.  Against Wake Forest they had the lead almost the entire game and he threw 2 interceptions with said lead and should have thrown 3 more.  They were the type of throws where you say "what the * were you thinking?" or "how the * do you drop that?" depending on who you were rooting for.  Not saying that one game is representative of the whole, just saying it doesn't explain the entire story.  Then you have the stupid INTs where you hit the WR and all he has to do is hold the ball and fall for a first down, but instead gets hit and pops the ball straight up for an easy pick (see INT #1 @ 1:53 vs Kent State).   

 

I do think that another thing playing into it though is that the team around him caused him to force a TON of throws into tight coverage.  His line often caused him to bail o nthe pocket - so much so that he bailed on it unnecessarily on occasion.  His WR/TEs werne't getting a ton of separation so it always seemed he was throwing into coverage.  He'll get knocked for "making a bad decision," but so many of those throws were on the money and the WR dropped it.  That stuff doesn't go into a stat sheet, but dear lord I noticed a TON of drops (just watch the bleeping Nevada game!).  Against LSU, one of the interceptions into a tight window (believe it was his second INT), that his WR needs to have some spatial awareness.  He had to have felt the defender right on him, and he did nothing to fight back to the ball and and least keep from getting intercepted.  Not the WRs fault Love threw an interception, but com'on man, help your QB out a little bit.  So yeah, his stat line is easy to pick on, and he did make enough bad throws that it needs to be addressed, but from what I could tell, he was generally making good reads and throwing to the open receiver, but his line rarely gave him space to do it, and when they did, his WRs didn't do him any favors giving him room to throw, coming back to the ball or just flat out catching it at all.  

 

I love Love's willingness to keep the play alive and try to make every effort to get the ball into his WRs hands, but bro, learn to throw the ball away or take a sack and fight another day.   I saw a few times he was trying to keep on his feet and make a play.  In that sense, all I could think of was Andrew Luck.  Well in Love's case, he'd often end the play dying to keep up, just to make a horrible throw because his mechanics were compromised.  Would wind up intercepted or close.  One thing he made a VERY bad habit of that I didn't really see crop up in 2018 that became put on full display because of the lack of talent around him in 2019 - throwing with defenders in his face.  It's one of those thigns that CAN BE a weapon.  Very Mahomes-esque.  But he has to know when it's okay and when it's not and that will come with good coaching and time. 

 

If you want to see what I'm talking about, I'll draw your attention to Vs. LSU @0:29 mark and Vs. Wake Forest @2:08 mark.  Two plays with very different outcomes.  I'm not even sure it was necessary in the WF throw, but had he used more sound mechanics with his feet, he might have been able to hit the corner of the endzone for a TD (or at least kept it out of the CBs reach.

 

There is STILL a lot he does well.  I noticed some safety manipulation in there.  When he has reasonable time (which seemed pretty rare for any pass not designed as a quick hitter) his throws were usually textbook.  His longball accuracy was generally better too.  Still in need of some work.  Some of his long throws the WR could get a hand on it, but not two.  Better overall, but could use refinement.  He's great when he's got time to throw and room to make the throw.  It's when those things are not present he gets into trouble

 

21 hours ago, stitches said:

I probably like him a bit better than you, BUT a lot of my liking of Love is based on what he can be rather than what he is now and it's as much a bet on him as it is on Reich and our coaching staff so I can understand people not willing to go 1st round on him. My thought process is - whoever we pick will  most likely sit to start the year and most probably the full year so... I'd rather just go with the highest upside and best traits if you trust your coaching staff and I do trust them so... I think if you love him, you go get him in the first. At least that's my thought process here. 

 

Yeah, this is ultimately the rub.  we've not been in a position to "bet" on a QB since Peyton Manning.  I mean Luck and RGIII, but I thought that wasn't even close.  Love needs a ton of refinement and re-calibrating.  He picked up a lot of bad habits, or made them worse from 2018-2019. That said, what QB could do well under pressure when you're under duress immediately, and constantly having to throw to guys who are covered, and are dropping your passes?  But even despite his team's not being great, I can't give him a pass because the most concerning thing to me is he hangs on to his first read too often and when he does opt for hero ball, he often will forgo relying on his mechanics and/or force throws (often, without optimal placement against said tight coverage) instead of throwing it away.  I understand he's trying to win games, but he makes these mistakes even when in the lead.  Instead of continuing to wait on your primary read, 2019 could have been an opportunity to work through 2nd and 3rd reads and improve processing times.  

 

The physical talent is there.  The signs of NFL traits are there.  But there is a chasm the size of the ocean floor between his NFL floor and ceiling.  1 season on the sidelines will help him tremendously I think.  With the right coaching.  Could the be the Colts?  I can't say no, but I have to acknowledge the risk.  But like you said, QBs come at a premium and if you tink you can smooth out the flaws, by all means, take him in the first.  

 

I think I am out on Tua based on health concerns in general (not just the hip), so unless Herbert shows me something, I think Love will end up being the 2nd best QB I'm willing to take.  I have already seen enough of Fromm to put him down there somewhere with Eason.  Can't say I'd be disappointed if we took him in the first, but ideally I'd like to see us move down and get some extra draft capital as opposed to taking him #13.

 

 

 

 

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