Jacoby Brissett Impressions (Perma Merge)

[NannyMcafee]

Just now, SteelCityColt said:

Yes and no. 
 

Yes if you’re constantly trying to do it (unless you’re very very good), it probably won’t end well. But you do need to take shots when they’re on offer. Chunk plays are real game changers. The chance of tacky DPI has made them more attractive too. 

 

Is it JB or is it Frank Reich? Who is deciding not to throw deep? That's something no one is talking about. We've seen him throw deep quite a bit in 2017 and no one complained. This year I dont think it's because he doesn't want to throw deep or cant. It has nothing to do with his abilities as much as people try and make it out to be that. We have seen it time and time again. 

 

Theres another thread titled the WR problem. Does this not contribute to the deep ball or are we all going to ignore every other reason we arent throwing it deep beyond JBs abilities? Seriously?

 

Yeah, let's pick and choose what works for our arguments instead of looking at the whole picture (talking about the entire forum not you)

[SteelCityColt]

2 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

Is it JB or is it Frank Reich? Who is deciding not to throw deep? That's something no one is talking about. We've seen him throw deep quite a bit in 2017 and no one complained. This year I dont think it's because he doesn't want to throw deep or cant. It has nothing to do with his abilities as much as people try and make it out to be that. We have seen it time and time again. 

 

Theres another thread titled the WR problem. Does this not contribute to the deep ball or are we all going to ignore every other reason we arent throwing it deep beyond JBs abilities? Seriously?

 

Yeah, let's pick and choose what works for our arguments instead of looking at the whole picture (talking about the entire forum not you)

I think there’s been discussion around the play calling, and how it’s got very conservative. 
 

I agree he has the arm certainly, which is why it’s puzzling in some respects. 
 

It’s harder to make the case for blaming the WRs when there’s been plays with receivers getting separation deep. It seems the issue with them is more on short to immediate stuff. 
 

Its never just one thing, it will be a combination of many, but the QB is part of it undoubtably. 

[NannyMcafee]

1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

I think there’s been discussion around the play calling, and how it’s got very conservative. 
 

I agree he has the arm certainly, which is why it’s puzzling in some respects. 
 

It’s harder to make the case for blaming the WRs when there’s been plays with receivers getting separation deep. It seems the issue with them is more on short to immediate stuff. 
 

Its never just one thing, it will be a combination of many, but the QB is part of it undoubtably. 

Oh for sure I just have the patience to see how good JB can become without feeling the need to draft a replacement in the upcoming draft. But alas. The sky is always falling in Colts land. 

[SteelCityColt]

1 minute ago, NannyMcafee said:

Oh for sure I just have the patience to see how good JB can become without feeling the need to draft a replacement in the upcoming draft. But alas. The sky is always falling in Colts land. 

I think you can have it both ways somewhat depending on how the season pans out and/or how the draft shakes out. 
 

The biggest thing that would say to me that we’re unlikely to draft a QB is hoyer’s contract in some respects.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Even if we don’t connect on a deep ball we need to attempt it a couple attempts a game so the opponent knows it’s a threat. Just attempting them can loosen up the defense. So yes I would like for us to have a couple deep balls a game.

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

Is it JB or is it Frank Reich? Who is deciding not to throw deep? That's something no one is talking about. We've seen him throw deep quite a bit in 2017 and no one complained. This year I dont think it's because he doesn't want to throw deep or cant. It has nothing to do with his abilities as much as people try and make it out to be that. We have seen it time and time again. 

 

Theres another thread titled the WR problem. Does this not contribute to the deep ball or are we all going to ignore every other reason we arent throwing it deep beyond JBs abilities? Seriously?

 

Yeah, let's pick and choose what works for our arguments instead of looking at the whole picture (talking about the entire forum not you)

 

Several people have questioned play calling. I think it's a combo of Reich and JB. We've seen guys deep and open. We've seen JB try to force it to TY instead of going deep. My question is, how often does Reich call a play with a deep read being priority. And when he does, what does JB do. I just can't buy the WR narrative. I also wonder if they've got JB so afraid to make a mistake that he's over thinking things. 

 

We play Houston again who is not good vs the pass, and the Bucs, who are near the bottom of the league. Might have to wait a while, but JB did say deep balls are coming... 

[EastStreet]

29 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

I think you can have it both ways somewhat depending on how the season pans out and/or how the draft shakes out. 
 

The biggest thing that would say to me that we’re unlikely to draft a QB is hoyer’s contract in some respects.

Only 5M was guaranteed right? I don't see that as a major barrier, especially given our current cap situation. 

[NannyMcafee]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Several people have questioned play calling. I think it's a combo of Reich and JB. We've seen guys deep and open. We've seen JB try to force it to TY instead of going deep. My question is, how often does Reich call a play with a deep read being priority. And when he does, what does JB do. I just can't buy the WR narrative. I also wonder if they've got JB so afraid to make a mistake that he's over thinking things. 

 

We play Houston again who is not good vs the pass, and the Bucs, who are near the bottom of the league. Might have to wait a while, but JB did say deep balls are coming... 

 

This year reminds me a lot of Andrews first year when the only WR he trusted was reggie. I just get a sense that the only players he really trusts to catch is Doyle and Hilton. I think we are assuming he trusts all of his WRs because they have been teammates beyond this season, but they have yet to have played a full year together. I for one am going to wait to pass judgement on JB until the end of next season. You have to develop trust together. It doesn't come naturally, and Hilton is the only WR on the roster beyond Roger's who JB has consistently played with or practiced with. 

[SteelCityColt]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Only 5M was guaranteed right? I don't see that as a major barrier, especially given our current cap situation. 

Not so much the financial implications, more the intent show by the money, but also the length of contract. 

 

complete spitballing on my part though.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

This year reminds me a lot of Andrews first year when the only WR he trusted was reggie. I just get a sense that the only players he really trusts to catch is Doyle and Hilton. I think we are assuming he trusts all of his WRs because they have been teammates beyond this season, but they have yet to have played a full year together. I for one am going to wait to pass judgement on JB until the end of next season. You have to develop trust together. It doesn't come naturally, and Hilton is the only WR on the roster beyond Roger's who JB has consistently played with or practiced with. 

I would say he trusts pascal and even Rogers. He has lots of time with them from last year. They just aren’t game breakers. Hopefully Campbell and Cain show something this year. Along with funchess. I think Ebron needs more snaps. He is to good of a playmaker to only have 26 snaps. 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

This year reminds me a lot of Andrews first year when the only WR he trusted was reggie. I just get a sense that the only players he really trusts to catch is Doyle and Hilton. I think we are assuming he trusts all of his WRs because they have been teammates beyond this season, but they have yet to have played a full year together. I for one am going to wait to pass judgement on JB until the end of next season. You have to develop trust together. It doesn't come naturally, and Hilton is the only WR on the roster beyond Roger's who JB has consistently played with or practiced with. 

I'm not buying or selling JB at this point. I do want to see how he does when the schedule amps up a bit (last 7 games) before making a decision. I'm not afraid to talk about his progression or lack of though. 

 

I do agree with you to an extent about trust. I though we saw a breakthrough with Pascal 2 games ago, but that was short lived. I'm also surprised he's not better hooped in to Rogers. Rogers has pretty decent separation stats, runs good routes, and as we saw in those screen shots, he's open. 

 

I really hope they loosen things up the next two games for him. 

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

Not so much the financial implications, more the intent show by the money, but also the length of contract. 

 

complete spitballing on my part though.

I thought it was a pretty safe contract. Great if JB turns out to be the guy, easy to blow up if need be. 

 

I'm spitballing too... 

 

What will be interesting is what they do with "the one we shall not name" next year, regardless of what happens with JB.

[Imgrandojji]

2 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

I think there’s been discussion around the play calling, and how it’s got very conservative. 
 

I agree he has the arm certainly, which is why it’s puzzling in some respects. 
 

It’s harder to make the case for blaming the WRs when there’s been plays with receivers getting separation deep. It seems the issue with them is more on short to immediate stuff. 
 

Its never just one thing, it will be a combination of many, but the QB is part of it undoubtably. 

 

There's a third option you know.  Reich believes in a possession based offensive strategy.  The situations in which he's willing to throw deep are limited compared to most other coaches because deep throws play against the possession game to an extent.

 

Just something to bear in mind when comparing Brissett to the pack in things like total yards and yards per attempt.  These numbers are going to be somewhat depressed because of the style of offense the coach likes to run.

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

There's a third option you know.  Reich believes in a possession based offensive strategy.  The situations in which he's willing to throw deep are limited compared to most other coaches because deep throws play against the possession game to an extent.

 

Just something to bear in mind when comparing Brissett to the pack in things like total yards and yards per attempt.  These numbers are going to be somewhat depressed because of the style of offense the coach likes to run.

IDK. In 2017, Wentz had like 7 or more TDs with 20 or more air yards before his injury. And Foles had 4 TDs with 20 or more air yards in the playoffs. Foles also had a 9+ yard average in the playoffs. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Hes not a rookie, he's been in camp both years. He's sat in the film sessions just as much as Luck, in fact more now. He's not new to the playbook either. 

 

Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench 3 years, in year 4 he was 6 W - 10 L, 341 att / 536  cmp   63.6% w/4038 yds  28 td   13 int

 

I prefer to try to wait for 30 starts to see what is there.

 

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Again this is the concern I have, the mistakes he makes are similar to a lot of 1st year rookies, and hes certainly had at least a year's worth of experience starting. Namely failing to pick up blitzes

 

Who calls the protections, JB or Ryan Kelly?  JB7 is supposed to see and call that Von Miller stunt where he came unblocked?

 

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

and not making his was through all the progressions.

 

Can't do it when blitzed. No time.  Big Q was the target #1 , but he went to EE for the TD.  So he does do it... likely more than people realize. 

 

Also, you only go through progressions until the 1st open guy is seen and then throw. Hopefully that is #1 or maybe #2. if #3 or later very often, then there's issues.

 

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Both of which were also knocks on him in college. I think it's fair to want to see progress in these areas, especially picking up and nullifying blitzes. The best turn a blitz into an advantage in some ways. Maybe we were spoiled with Manning. 

 

He and R. Kelly need to be on the same page on those, and get RB's involved as necessary.

 

As far as 30 starts for JB7, ( he's not there yet ), I'm not really even counting his first 4 with Pagano. He came in just 5 days before game game 1 (the Rams 46 - 9 smackdown on Tolzien) and took over at game 2. Those first four were his TC and pre-season to me.

[PrincetonTiger]

5 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench 3 years, in year 4 he was 6 W - 10 L, 341 att / 536  cmp   63.6% w/4038 yds  28 td   13 int

 

I prefer to try to wait for 30 starts to see what is there.

 

 

Who calls the protections, JB or Ryan Kelly?  JB7 is supposed to see and call that Von Miller stunt where he came unblocked?

 

 

Can't do it when blitzed. No time.  Big Q was the target #1 , but he went to EE for the TD.  So he does do it... likely more than people realize. 

 

Also, you only go through progressions until the 1st open guy is seen and then throw. Hopefully that is #1 or maybe #2. if #3 or later very often, then there's issues.

 

 

He and R. Kelly need to be on the same page on those, and get RB's involved as necessary.

 

As far as 30 starts for JB7, ( he's not there yet ), I'm not really even counting his first 4 with Pagano. He came in just 5 days before game game 1 (the Rams 46 - 9 smackdown on Tolzien) and took over at game 2. Those first four were his TC and pre-season to me.

Rodgers did not look too hot at the start of this season either with a new HC and System

[PrincetonTiger]

Friendly reminder from TigerTown    
   There are 20 to 25 people each week whose job it is to confuse and/or stop the QB

 

[Myles]

13 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

I'd like to know what you think it is to improve. 

 

Please, this is an earnest question.  I think it gets to the heart of why you feel this way so I'd appreciate a forthright answer.  If you don't want to answer that in the thread feel free to PM me.

To me, it doesn't seem like Brissett has been improving throughout this season.   It would include lots of things we see when watching the games. 

 Accuracy - He started the season completing over 75% of his passes in 2 of the 1st 3 games.  I was impressed and thought this team can win allot of games with an efficient offense like that (Mack too).

 Reading the field and hitting the open player - I don't think he is as bad as some say, but looks to be about the same now as in the early games,  I hadn't noticed an improvement here.   

Getting rid of the ball quickly - Seems pretty consistent. 

Running the offense - I don't feel that Reich has given him any more control over the course of the season.  

 

Now it is possible that since he was so good in the first 3 games, it's hard to show improvement.  He was very good/efficient against the Chargers and Falcons.   

[Imgrandojji]

4 hours ago, Myles said:

To me, it doesn't seem like Brissett has been improving throughout this season.   It would include lots of things we see when watching the games. 

 Accuracy - He started the season completing over 75% of his passes in 2 of the 1st 3 games.  I was impressed and thought this team can win allot of games with an efficient offense like that (Mack too).

 Reading the field and hitting the open player - I don't think he is as bad as some say, but looks to be about the same now as in the early games,  I hadn't noticed an improvement here.   

Getting rid of the ball quickly - Seems pretty consistent. 

Running the offense - I don't feel that Reich has given him any more control over the course of the season.  

 

Now it is possible that since he was so good in the first 3 games, it's hard to show improvement.  He was very good/efficient against the Chargers and Falcons.   

 

Honestly I think you're looking at improvement wrong.  Right now we're still trying to figure out what Brissett even is.  game 1 isn't what Brissett is, nor is any one game he's played.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy

 

We can't really judge improvement the way you seem to want to until we've established a baseline.  We have no idea, as you mentioned, if weeks 1 and 2 are simply above Brissett's baseline or not.  Right now we're still doing that.  and I don't think we'll be done until the end of the year.

 

Personally I think we've seen one thing that suggests significant improvement, or at least significant maturation -- there is now film out on Brissett in Reich's system.  The Broncos used it extensively to break his tendencies down.  But Brissett has been good at making adjustments and finding ways to get the job done even when he's struggling.  He showed that since week 1 too, and that hasn't changed even as defenses are starting to adjust to what he can do.

[NannyMcafee]

15 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I would say he trusts pascal and even Rogers. He has lots of time with them from last year. They just aren’t game breakers. Hopefully Campbell and Cain show something this year. Along with funchess. I think Ebron needs more snaps. He is to good of a playmaker to only have 26 snaps. 

 

 

If anyone is open deep other than the ones named that he is comfortable with, maybe he doesn't pass it because they dont have that timing down...? If he thinks he cant make the throw because of that I can understand why he checks down to TY or Doyle you know? 

 

I really think about half way through next year we will see what kind of QB we have and will know if he can be that franchise guy or not. This year is just too soon for me to feel one way or the other about it. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

 

If anyone is open deep other than the ones named that he is comfortable with, maybe he doesn't pass it because they dont have that timing down...? If he thinks he cant make the throw because of that I can understand why he checks down to TY or Doyle you know? 

 

I really think about half way through next year we will see what kind of QB we have and will know if he can be that franchise guy or not. This year is just too soon for me to feel one way or the other about it. 

I agree. A lot of it is timing and trust.

[stitches]

 

PFF ranks Brissett at no. 26 in their QB rankings

 

-Only 2 games above 78 passing grade this season. 

-Stats inflated because of his playmakers. (not sure I agree with this one, IMO if they are inflated it's more because of some playcalling outliers in the red zone) 

[Imgrandojji]

On 10/28/2019 at 3:25 PM, Chloe6124 said:

You also don’t take a QB just to take one. We aren’t in the position where we need to just take any QB.  We are in no hurry to have to draft a QB.

You guys are both right.  It's hard to deny that there probably are a few QB out there in college that have the potential to be better than Brissett is right now, and if you find one that you're sure of, it's usually worth the risk to go after them.

 

With that said, we're in a rather luxurious position because we have a choice.  We don't have to go big on a QB, which means that ballard is only gonna do it if he thinks he's found the perfect fit.  Otherwise we'll run with Brissett and beef up other areas.

 

I remain convinced that Brissett is capable of leading a team deep into the playoffs.  Certainly worse QB than him have done it in the past.  

[Valpo2004]

On 10/30/2019 at 11:24 AM, Myles said:

I think it shows more about how low the % is of getting a QB better than Brissett.    I would put 8-9 of Of those QB's ahead of Brissett.   So out of 47 Brissett would be around the 10th best.   

Grabbing a future great QB is not an easy thing to do.

 

I agree with you for the most part, it's not necessarily an easy thing to do. 

 

That I said I think your numbers are thrown off a bit.  The QB's from the 2019 draft and to some extent the ones from the 2018 draft they havn't had the chance to learn yet and/or there hasn't been enough time to judge.  

 

But I would say from 2013 to 2017 you could gather that there is roughly an average of 2 QB's per draft that end up equal to or better than Jacoby Brissett.  

 

I think the bigger question we have to ask is if it's necessary.  Can Brissett "Trent Dilpher" us into a superbowl?  The other question is how long is Ballard going to have to keep up his good drafting in order for that to happen.  Ballard has had 1 good draft, one historically great draft that will probably never be repeated and a draft that the jury is still out on.

 

Thing is most people seem to think that the team as it is can't win the SB.   If we assume that to be true, I think it's fair to question how much more it would take to get the team to where it could win the SB with JB under center.  Our team was considered widely and still is considered to have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.  So if JB can't win the SB with this roster, what's it going to take.  You can't keep a roster this complete for very long.  Some big contracts are going to come up in the next 2 years.

 

Perhaps a good barometer of this is if this team presuming it doesn't experience major injures to important players is if the team makes it deep into the playoffs.  If a healthy Colts can't get at least to the AFC championship game this year, I think it's extremely fair to wonder if JB can get us a ring.  Because the window on great teams with average QB's is much much smaller than the reverse.  

[NannyMcafee]

12 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I agree with you for the most part, it's not necessarily an easy thing to do. 

 

That I said I think your numbers are thrown off a bit.  The QB's from the 2019 draft and to some extent the ones from the 2018 draft they havn't had the chance to learn yet and/or there hasn't been enough time to judge.  

 

But I would say from 2013 to 2017 you could gather that there is roughly an average of 2 QB's per draft that end up equal to or better than Jacoby Brissett.  

 

I think the bigger question we have to ask is if it's necessary.  Can Brissett "Trent Dilpher" us into a superbowl?  The other question is how long is Ballard going to have to keep up his good drafting in order for that to happen.  Ballard has had 1 good draft, one historically great draft that will probably never be repeated and a draft that the jury is still out on.

 

Thing is most people seem to think that the team as it is can't win the SB.   If we assume that to be true, I think it's fair to question how much more it would take to get the team to where it could win the SB with JB under center.  Our team was considered widely and still is considered to have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.  So if JB can't win the SB with this roster, what's it going to take.  You can't keep a roster this complete for very long.  Some big contracts are going to come up in the next 2 years.

Bowen said something like 18 or 19 URFA this off season. Which is why Ballard has been a cap genius. 

[Colts_Fan12]

50 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

PFF ranks Brissett at no. 26 in their QB rankings

 

-Only 2 games above 78 passing grade this season. 

-Stats inflated because of his playmakers. (not sure I agree with this one, IMO if they are inflated it's more because of some playcalling outliers in the red zone) 

thanks for sharing! I'm sure their opinion will be hated and we will hear how terrible PFF is but oh well lol

[Myles]

2 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

Honestly I think you're looking at improvement wrong.  Right now we're still trying to figure out what Brissett even is.  game 1 isn't what Brissett is, nor is any one game he's played.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy

 

We can't really judge improvement the way you seem to want to until we've established a baseline.  We have no idea, as you mentioned, if weeks 1 and 2 are simply above Brissett's baseline or not.  Right now we're still doing that.  and I don't think we'll be done until the end of the year.

 

Personally I think we've seen one thing that suggests significant improvement, or at least significant maturation -- there is now film out on Brissett in Reich's system.  The Broncos used it extensively to break his tendencies down.  But Brissett has been good at making adjustments and finding ways to get the job done even when he's struggling.  He showed that since week 1 too, and that hasn't changed even as defenses are starting to adjust to what he can do.

I think we feel the same but are defining it differently.   He hasn't gotten worse and he hasn't gotten noticeably better.   As other teams have film to defend Brissett better, the Colts have film on how to handle the defenses better.   

I think he was good to start the season and seems equally good now.   I just haven't seen improvement.   Too early to tell though.  Small sample size.   I think the next few weeks will fill us in.   

If I had to make a judgment on Brissetts floor and ceiling, i would say "what you see is what you get at this point".   He's as good now as in the first games.   His faults seem the same now as the first games.   I expect that to change when we get our WR's back and if Reich opens up the offense a bit.   So I expect to see improvement.   I just haven't witnessed it yet.

 

 

[Myles]

1 hour ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I agree with you for the most part, it's not necessarily an easy thing to do. 

 

That I said I think your numbers are thrown off a bit.  The QB's from the 2019 draft and to some extent the ones from the 2018 draft they havn't had the chance to learn yet and/or there hasn't been enough time to judge.  

 

But I would say from 2013 to 2017 you could gather that there is roughly an average of 2 QB's per draft that end up equal to or better than Jacoby Brissett.  

 

 

It makes it tough.   If Brissett proves to be a top 15 QB on the Colts, do you give up a bunch of draft capital to move up to take a big risk on a rookie QB?   

[Imgrandojji]

14 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think we feel the same but are defining it differently.   He hasn't gotten worse and he hasn't gotten noticeably better.   As other teams have film to defend Brissett better, the Colts have film on how to handle the defenses better.   

I think he was good to start the season and seems equally good now.   I just haven't seen improvement.   Too early to tell though.  Small sample size.   I think the next few weeks will fill us in.   

If I had to make a judgment on Brissetts floor and ceiling, i would say "what you see is what you get at this point".   He's as good now as in the first games.   His faults seem the same now as the first games.   I expect that to change when we get our WR's back and if Reich opens up the offense a bit.   So I expect to see improvement.   I just haven't witnessed it yet.

 

 

I'll only agree with "he hasn't gotten noticeably better" if you're happy conceding that we don't even know how good he is right now, and that incremental changes are hard to pick up on from the seats.

[Myles]

3 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

I'll only agree with "he hasn't gotten noticeably better" if you're happy conceding that we don't even know how good he is right now, and that incremental changes are hard to pick up on from the seats.

This feels like a negotiation.   

It's a deal.

End deal is:

Brissett hasn't noticeably improved as the season has progressed.

Until the WR's get healthy and Reich opens up the offense a bit, we don't even know how good he can be.

We do not know what he may be doing to adjust to more prepared defenses.  

[shasta519]

8 minutes ago, Myles said:

This feels like a negotiation.   

It's a deal.

End deal is:

Brissett hasn't noticeably improved as the season has progressed.

Until the WR's get healthy and Reich opens up the offense a bit, we don't even know how good he can be.

We do not know what he may be doing to adjust to more prepared defenses.  

 

Well there is a rumor that TY might be done for a while...if not the season. If true...I don't see the offense opening up any time soon.

[Valpo2004]

1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:

Bowen said something like 18 or 19 URFA this off season. Which is why Ballard has been a cap genius. 

 

It's not a question of how many but which ones.  

 

This offseason you have Castonozo, Ebron, Doyle, Sheard as your big names.  Plus our backup OL from Grigson's last draft, Clark and Haeg.  

 

Next offseason is worse.  Brissett, Hilton, Houston, Autry, Walker, Kelly, Mack.  Plus rotational players Stewart and Hunt.  

 

Then it gets even worse in 2022 as Ballard's insane 2018 draft hits free agency.  Nelson (Although he has a 5th year option), Leonard, Turay, Smith, Lewis, Adams, Glowinski, Desir, 

 

This offseason and next offseason will be basically decisions about who we want to keep around, especially when it comes to aging players.  And of course if we don't keep an aging player around we have to replace him.  

 

2022 if everything continues to go well we're going to be handing out some massive contracts to Nelson and Leonard.  

 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I agree with you for the most part, it's not necessarily an easy thing to do. 

 

That I said I think your numbers are thrown off a bit.  The QB's from the 2019 draft and to some extent the ones from the 2018 draft they havn't had the chance to learn yet and/or there hasn't been enough time to judge.  

 

But I would say from 2013 to 2017 you could gather that there is roughly an average of 2 QB's per draft that end up equal to or better than Jacoby Brissett.  

 

I think the bigger question we have to ask is if it's necessary.  Can Brissett "Trent Dilpher" us into a superbowl?  The other question is how long is Ballard going to have to keep up his good drafting in order for that to happen.  Ballard has had 1 good draft, one historically great draft that will probably never be repeated and a draft that the jury is still out on.

 

Thing is most people seem to think that the team as it is can't win the SB.   If we assume that to be true, I think it's fair to question how much more it would take to get the team to where it could win the SB with JB under center.  Our team was considered widely and still is considered to have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.  So if JB can't win the SB with this roster, what's it going to take.  You can't keep a roster this complete for very long.  Some big contracts are going to come up in the next 2 years.

 

Perhaps a good barometer of this is if this team presuming it doesn't experience major injures to important players is if the team makes it deep into the playoffs.  If a healthy Colts can't get at least to the AFC championship game this year, I think it's extremely fair to wonder if JB can get us a ring.  Because the window on great teams with average QB's is much much smaller than the reverse.  

 

  Name off the long list of rookies and unproven 2nd year players that make this roster so complete. On paper... yada yada yada.
 Right now we are about as good as our running game and time of possession takes us any given week. 
 If This great team with an average QB can't get to the AFC Championship game huh?

 Clueless and Ridiculous!  LMAO
  

[Imgrandojji]

32 minutes ago, Myles said:

This feels like a negotiation.   

It's a deal.

End deal is:

Brissett hasn't noticeably improved as the season has progressed.

We recognize that not all forms of progress are easily noticed.

Until the WR's get healthy and Reich opens up the offense a bit, we don't even know how good he can be.

We do not know what he may be doing to adjust to more prepared defenses.  

 

Throw that in and we're good

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

thanks for sharing! I'm sure their opinion will be hated and we will hear how terrible PFF is but oh well lol

Actually PFF isn't a good way to rank players IMO, it has many flaws if you look into it. They have players all the time rated higher than others that shouldn't be. I am just not saying that because they have Brissett at 26, if you look at my past posts I have been saying PFF isn't a good way to rank players for years. I also think QBR and passer rating are overrated as well. I look at TD's to INT ratio, efficiency in the redzone (because what good does it do to throw for a lot of yards if you can't score), and I look to see if a QB has the clutch gene. Brissett measures up in all 3 of those area's. 

[stitches]

18 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Not so much the financial implications, more the intent show by the money, but also the length of contract. 

 

complete spitballing on my part though.

iMO allowing Brian Hoyer to dictate whether you draft a future franchise QB or not would be horrible roster management. He shouldn't even enter the picture of this consideration. That decision is way too important to allow your back up QB to stop you from drafting a player you really like and think can be the most important part of your team for the next 10-15 years.

[Myles]

16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Actually PFF isn't a good way to rank players IMO, it has many flaws if you look into it. They have players all the time rated higher than others that shouldn't be. I am just not saying that because they have Brissett at 26, if you look at my past posts I have been saying PFF isn't a good way to rank players for years. I also think QBR and passer rating are overrated as well. I look at TD's to INT ratio, efficiency in the redzone (because what good does it do to throw for a lot of yards if you can't score), and I look to see if a QB has the clutch gene. Brissett measures up in all 3 of those area's. 

I agree.   Brissett at 26 is laughable.  

16th in completion %

7th in TD's

8th in INT's (that includes QB's who haven't played the whole season)

9th in QB rating

14th in QBR

8th in sack %

 

I wouldn't combine all those and say he is a top 10 QB, but 26 is silly.

 

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

 

PFF ranks Brissett at no. 26 in their QB rankings

 

-Only 2 games above 78 passing grade this season. 

-Stats inflated because of his playmakers. (not sure I agree with this one, IMO if they are inflated it's more because of some playcalling outliers in the red zone) 

 

I would agree that efficiency and playcalling near the EZ has inflated the passing TDs.

 

This is by no means scientific...but there are 14 QBs (including JB) with 12+ passing TDs. Of that group...

 

- JB has a much lower avg yards/TD of any QB...at 10.1 yards/TD.

- If you average the other 13 QBs, their average yds/TD is 19.6 yds/TD...nearly double.

- JB has ONE passing TD outside of the RZ (a catch and run by Ebron). Every other QB has at least 3...and most have 4-5+.

- 64% (or 9) of JB's passing TDs have come from within the 5 yard line. Only one other QB in that group is above 40% (Wentz with 42%).

 

The RZ efficiency is great though...but the point is that TD distribution is circumstantial and fluctuates...especially when you get in close.

 

For example, Cousins has one less passing TD than JB...but MIN has 8 more rushing TDs...and 7 have come from the 5 yard or in. Cousins could easily have a few more passing TDs.

 

Another example...Jimmy G only has 9 passing TDs... 5 less passing TDs than JB, but SF has 9 more rushing TDs than IND (13 total)...and 7 of their rushing TDs have come from the 5 yard line or in. 

 

The Colts have passed 70% of the time when they are within 5 yards of the goal line...and are tied for the 2nd most passing attempts in the NFL from that distance (14)...one behind ARI.

 

That's where the passing TDs are coming from...and it's a number that is bound to regress or balance out if they start to run more in close.

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Myles said:

I agree.   Brissett at 26 is laughable.  

16th in completion %

7th in TD's

8th in INT's (that includes QB's who haven't played the whole season)

9th in QB rating

14th in QBR

8th in sack %

 

I wouldn't combine all those and say he is a top 10 QB, but 26 is silly.

 

I agree 100%, I have Brissett 15th as of now which is reasonable. 26th is so laughable that I am not sure how anyone can take that site serious. 

[Myles]

1 minute ago, shastamasta said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Colts have passed 70% of the time when they are within 5 yards of the goal line...and are tied for the 2nd most passing attempts in the NFL...one behind ARI. That's where the passing TDs are coming from...and it's a number that is bound to regress or balance out if they start to run more in close. 

 

That is fair and accurate, but the variable is that a QB has to play (and coaches call plays) as to the teams strengths.    I'm not confident that the Colts can pound the ball in from the 5.   Perhaps they can, but you play to your strengths and Brissett shows a strength of taking care of the ball and red zone efficiency.