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Jacoby Brissett Impressions (Perma Merge)

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:


Sigh... 

 

Please go find the post where I said we “can’t win”, or even where I’ve called for Brissett to not be the incumbent etc etc. 
 

If we played to exactly the same qualitative level but didn’t get the same quantitative results (wins) I bet your outlook would be different. The point is, and has been, that teams playing like we do will come back to the mean at some point. Do you want to be a 8-8 team perennially?

Why? Because you say so?

 

Teams defy stats all the time. 

 

What is the anti Brissett crowds argument if it's not that he limits our ability to win? Because I apparently dont get it.

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:


Could as easily be 2-7, that’s the nature of scores decided by one game or less.

 

I think what you meant is you don’t understand the stats so you dismiss them. 

The Colts aren’t and it is time to move on

 

       If stats were the be al l all end all Ryan Leaf and several others would be hall of famers not draft busts

 

    I live by stats and organization and know they are sometimes faulty and can cause big problems

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

There are lots of things that going into winning beyond a QB. You shouldn't be afraid to have an objective conversation conversation about performance....

Stats are completely subjective because they are open to interpretation.

 

I'm just letting you know because you keep misusing the word objective.

 

It's all subjective. There is no such thing as an objective debate about sports. Your opinion is subjective. 

 

So please stop saying it.

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4 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

Why? Because you say so?

 

Teams defy stats all the time. 

 

What is the anti Brissett crowds argument if it's not that he limits our ability to win? Because I apparently dont get it.

 

Yes and again that's the point. Currently by a number of proven models, and just by looking at the huge sample of previous NFL games, we're an outlier in a number of ways. Bluntly we're over performing in terms of wins. The problem with that is, in general it's not sustainable. 

 

I don't want to win just now, I want to win long term. Brissett could well be the guy, but there's certainly improvement needed. 

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1 minute ago, GoatBeard said:

You keep saying they are objective, but they are just numbers, and numbers cant be objective. They are completely subjective. Your interpretation of the stats, and the conclusion you make based on them is what's called an opinion. That means they cant possibly be objective. 

 

And if they "arent everything", which you keep saying....why do you value them so much to the point it's almost all you post about? 

 

Because that's the only thing you say I actually agree with. 

 

The bolded defies simple logic lol... Stats themselves are just numbers and are objective. How they land as compared to others don't require a lot of interpretation. Simple stack ranks. You can absolutely apply context to those stats and ranks, but simply dismissing them as being subjective is disingenuous. 

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1 minute ago, PrincetonTiger said:

The Colts aren’t and it is time to move on

 

       If stats were the be al l all end all Ryan Leaf and several others would be hall of famers not draft busts

 

    I live by stats and organization and know they are sometimes faulty and can cause big problems

 

So it's fine for posters to go "we could be 9-1" and I offer the counter I need "move on". Gotcha. 

 

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Just now, EastStreet said:

The bolded defies simple logic lol... Stats themselves are just numbers and are objective. How they land as compared to others don't require a lot of interpretation. Simple stack ranks. You can absolutely apply context to those stats and ranks, but simply dismissing them as being subjective is disingenuous. 

 

Statistical analysis doesn't equal interpretation/opinion. I mean it's just... math. The numbers don't like or dislike players. 

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

The bolded defies simple logic lol... Stats themselves are just numbers and are objective. How they land as compared to others don't require a lot of interpretation. Simple stack ranks. You can absolutely apply context to those stats and ranks, but simply dismissing them as being subjective is disingenuous. 

It's your conclusions that are subjective.

 

This is why I keep saying that they are just a record of what happened. And until you insert an interpretation of what you see, they are objective. Once you do, it's no longer just a stat. An opinion has been attached.

1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Statistical analysis doesn't equal interpretation/opinion. I mean it's just... math. The numbers don't like or dislike players. 

It's not a ranking system. It's a statistical record. That's it.

 

Analysis is subjective.

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

So it's fine for posters to go "we could be 9-1" and I offer the counter I need "move on". Gotcha. 

 

As a Moderator You are held at a higher standard

 

      Try overlooking things

1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Statistical analysis doesn't equal interpretation/opinion. I mean it's just... math. The numbers don't like or dislike players. 

People that use them often do

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1 minute ago, GoatBeard said:

It's your conclusions that are subjective.

 

This is why I keep saying that they are just a record of what happened. And until you insert an interpretation of what you see, they are objective. Then it's no longer just a stat. An opinion has been attached.

 

Let me ask you a hypothetical. If there is a large enough evidence base to be significant, and you correlate you % chance of winning against certain things would you accept that is objective? 

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Let me ask you a hypothetical. If there is a large enough evidence base to be significant, and you correlate you % chance of winning against certain things would you accept that is objective? 

No, because by definition, its subjective.

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1 minute ago, PrincetonTiger said:

As a Moderator You are held at a higher standard

 

      Try overlooking things

People that use them often do

 

I fail to see where providing the counterpoint to argument is failing to meet a "higher standard". You know that discussing this is against the rules, so either PM me, or report it. 

 

There is a difference between using stats to generate intelligence, and just using statistical methodology to analyse a dataset. The latter is very much unbiased and objective. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Let me ask you a hypothetical. If there is a large enough evidence base to be significant, and you correlate you % chance of winning against certain things would you accept that is objective? 

This is why HS trade multiple tapes before a game

 

 

        

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1 minute ago, GoatBeard said:

No, because by definition, its subjective.

 

To be very clear, I am not trying to poke at you here. But that really isn't subjective, it's just statistics. It would be like saying the experimental data used to empirically prove something is subjective. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I fail to see where providing the counterpoint to argument is failing to meet a "higher standard". You know that discussing this is against the rules, so either PM me, or report it. 

 

There is a difference between using stats to generate intelligence, and just using statistical methodology to analyse a dataset. The latter is very much unbiased and objective. 

You asked the question 

  that is what I said multiple times and was told that was why my HS some bad years

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8 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Statistical analysis doesn't equal interpretation/opinion. I mean it's just... math. The numbers don't like or dislike players. 

The stats phobia of some is pretty hilarious. Guessing some of these folks hated math in school. 

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

To be very clear, I am not trying to poke at you here. But that really isn't subjective, it's just statistics. It would be like saying the experimental data used to empirically prove something is subjective. 

Not really.

 

For example...... As good as Vegas is at statistical analysis, they do have people that beat them regularly, despite being the best at what they do. They have built an entire city based on being better at calculating odds and mastering statistical analysis. But there are still people with better opinions, despite the fact they are extremely in depth and great at what they do. 

 

So yes it is absolutely subjective. There are always exceptions to the rules.

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41 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

 In most cases if he drops past 15 he will have at least 1 “red shirt” year and lose money


I wonder what the language is in his insurance policy.

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16 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

This is why HS trade multiple tapes before a game

 

HSs also look at all the stats.... 

 

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

To be very clear, I am not trying to poke at you here. But that really isn't subjective, it's just statistics. It would be like saying the experimental data used to empirically prove something is subjective. 

There are some here that have belittled anyone who would like to pump the brake on stats

 

  when I was coaching the were multiple scouting reports that were thrown out or disregarded when the coaching staff watched the corresponding film

 

      The problem is that every stat can be thrown out of whack

            Example 1: For several years Evansville Memorial and Evansville Mater Dei would end the regular season with less then 3 wins but would routinely go deep in the tournament   

           Example 2: the 2019 Princeton Community Tigers finished the regular season at 1-8 because of schedule and injuries but got to the sectional final

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16 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

As a Moderator You are held at a higher standard

 

      Try overlooking things

People that use them often do

moderators are fans too just like us they have all the same right to discuss and disagree just like anyone 

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5 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

Not really.

 

For example...... As good as Vegas is at statistical analysis, they do have people that beat them regularly, despite being the best at what they do. They have built an entire city based on being better at calculating odds and mastering statistical analysis. But there are still people with better opinions, despite the fact they are extremely in depth and great at what they do. 

 

So yes it is absolutely subjective. There are always exceptions to the rules.

Great example. Vegas wins billions a year, and there's only a very small fraction of people that can defy the odds/analytics. 

 

I'd also point out that the people that beat Vegas, usually rely on stats/analytics themselves. So you're actually hurting your case... 

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Just now, PrincetonTiger said:

There are some here that have belittled anyone who would like to pump the brake on stats

 

  when I was coaching the were multiple scouting reports that were thrown out or disregarded when the coaching staff watched the corresponding film

 

      The problem is that every stat can be thrown out of whack

            Example 1: For several years Evansville Memorial and Evansville Mater Dei would end the regular season with less then 3 wins but would routinely go deep in the tournament   

           Example 2: the 2019 Princeton Community Tigers finished the regular season at 1-8 because of schedule and injuries but got to the sectional final

 

A couple of things to say:

 

1) Stats can of course be skewed, and/or outliers will occur. That's where things like data quality, sample size and significance all come in.

2) I've also always held that film is king when it comes to player assessment. People have also been looking at the All 22. 

3) You're citing two specific examples, out of how many? We're talking about metrics with thousands of games as a sample size when you start looking at trends/correlations. 

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Okay, is the following objective or subjective?

 

7sfBYSw.png

The graph itself is objective if taken as a record of what happened.

 

Once you use it to make future predictions, or make decisions, that prediction/decision is subjective.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

The graph itself is objective if taken as a record of what happened.

 

Once you use it to make future predictions, or make decisions, that prediction/decision is subjective.

 

 

 

Depending on how you extrapolate the data (i.e. straight up mathematically vs modelling with more complexity) , it can still very much be objective,  but let's ask it in another way.. would you say it would be indicative of potential future outcomes. 

 

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5 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

There are some here that have belittled anyone who would like to pump the brake on stats

 

  when I was coaching the were multiple scouting reports that were thrown out or disregarded when the coaching staff watched the corresponding film

 

      The problem is that every stat can be thrown out of whack

            Example 1: For several years Evansville Memorial and Evansville Mater Dei would end the regular season with less then 3 wins but would routinely go deep in the tournament   

           Example 2: the 2019 Princeton Community Tigers finished the regular season at 1-8 because of schedule and injuries but got to the sectional final

Did regular season SoS have anything to do their regular season record? Just like Cathedral loses regular season games playing up classes and crossing the state line to play other powerhouses.... That's something that can be measured...

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Depending on how you extrapolate the data, it can still very much be objective,  but let's ask it in another way.. would you say it would be indicative of potential future outcomes. 

There are always outliers so as much as we might want a spray chart to be perfect there is always a possibility 

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Depending on how you extrapolate the data, it can still very much be objective,  but let's ask it in another way.. would you say it would be indicative of potential future outcomes. 

Indicative of potential future outcomes? Sure.

 

But dont under estimate how important the word POTENTIAL is in that statement.

 

You are forced to use it to make that statement accurate, because it isn't objective in the first place. Take it out and it is a false statement. 

 

Stats are best used for identifying trends. The problem is that trends are fluid.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Okay, is the following objective or subjective?

 

7sfBYSw.png

 

@EastStreet if you hadn't guessed I might have started look at metric correlation again. 356 data points per one, drawn from 2,816 games.  I'll post it up in general when it's all done. 

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1 minute ago, PrincetonTiger said:

 

There are always outliers so as much as we might want a spray chart to be perfect there is always a possibility 

 

Of course there will always be outliers, but outliers don't have sustained success. 

 

To use Vegas as an example as per our esteemed peer @GoatBeard the longer you play at the table, the greater the chance you lose. You can't buck the odds forever.  

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Because of my life around coaches I put the eye test above “unproven” stats

    
    In my book  Unproven Stats are ones that I have not had a chance to study film of 

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

@EastStreet if you hadn't guessed I might have started look at metric correlation again. 356 data points per one, drawn from 2,816 games.  I'll post it up in general when it's all done. 

is that yards per attempt? 

if so, very very strong correlation.

Who was the 30% at 8+ outlier?

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

is that yards per attempt? 

if so, very very strong correlation.

Who was the 30% at 8+ outlier?

 

A very good example of an outlier! 2018 Tampa Bay. Fitzmagic baby.

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5 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Of course there will always be outliers, but outliers don't have sustained success. 

 

To use Vegas as an example as per our esteemed peer @GoatBeard the longer you play at the table, the greater the chance you lose. You can't buck the odds forever.  

I got burned by a few polls before and don’t gamble so I like the sure thing 

 

   

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23 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Unless you're suggesting you can "see" intangibles? 

 

I can see them, just can't touch them. 

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Of course there will always be outliers, but outliers don't have sustained success. 

 

To use Vegas as an example as per our esteemed peer @GoatBeard the longer you play at the table, the greater the chance you lose. You can't buck the odds forever.  

The odds say that, yes. But only because the casino uses games that naturally favor the house, not because of statistical analysis itself. 

 

I am not saying it isn't a powerful tool. For example watch the movie Rounders. It is a perfect example of someone being better at statistical analysis than the casino and is based on a true story.  But the casino doesn't allow those people to play and sit at the table long enough to clean them out.

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

A very good example of an outlier! 2018 Tampa Bay. Fitzmagic baby.

You rock lol

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1 minute ago, PrincetonTiger said:

I got burned by a few polls before and don’t gamble so I like the sure thing 

 

But the point @GoatBeard is making (or so I understand it to be), is there are no sure things. So you can have a very strong evidence base that something has happened 99.99% of the time, but there is still always a chance of a surprise. 

 

Then it's more into things like EV, Value Propositions etc etc. 

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21 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Great example. Vegas wins billions a year, and there's only a very small fraction of people that can defy the odds/analytics. 

 

I'd also point out that the people that beat Vegas, usually rely on stats/analytics themselves. So you're actually hurting your case... 

No I'm not. I'm proving you dont know the meaning of the word objective.

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