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Teams trade up for QBs


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This is something that goes underappreciated by fans - teams trade for QBs in the top 10. 

 

In the last 4 years, 10 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 of the draft. 

 

Out of those 10:

-7 were drafted after their team traded up in the draft in order to secure the guy. 

-2 were drafted no. 1 so their team didn't have to trade up to get them because they already had the highest possible pick

-1(Daniel Jones) was drafted  without a trade up by the GM that hates moving in the draft 

 

IMO it's very likely that if we get a QB we will trade up to get him. If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft. 

 

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55 minutes ago, stitches said:

If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft. 


Point well taken.  But that only refers to Round 1.  If CB likes someone a little later in the draft, it’s doable without a trade...

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2 minutes ago, Archer said:


Point well taken.  But that only refers to Round 1.  If CB likes someone a little later in the draft, it’s doable without a trade...

Yeah, I probably wasn't precise enough in my post - my point was more concerning the no. 13 pick. It's possible that we trade up from the Washington pick into the late 1st in order to secure a 5th year of whoever borderline 1st QB Ballard likes. 

 

I kind of think of drafting a QB in round 3-4-5 as the worst possible option. 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

I kind of think of drafting a QB in round 3-4-5 as the worst possible option. 


Yeah, I’ve got Gordon in the third right now.  Watch the EWS this weekend - there’s a riser named James Morgan at Florida Int’l that’s getting some head turns at practice.  6’4”, 213.  Unimpressive college stats, but seemed to be a running O.  Captain Morgan...hmmmm...those letters could start coming from sea...

 

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2 hours ago, Orioles22 said:

I think you could pick a bad quarterback in the first round also.

You could pick a bad (insert any position) in the first round. The issue is a starting QB is a lot harder to find after the first round vs any other position.

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5 hours ago, stitches said:

IMO it's very likely that if we get a QB we will trade up to get him. If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft. 

 

 

IMO you would only want to do this if you're targeting a top-tier QB.  I only see one healthy top-tier QB in the 2020 draft and he's going #1, and it's very unlikely any team could get the Bengals to trade that pick.  Tua is a top-tier QB with serious injury risks, but a team might have to trade into the top 10 to get him.

 

Other than those two, I only see a group of second tier QBs (like Haskins and Lock last year).  Of course, that's just my novice opinion and experts will certainly have better opinions whether some of this remaining group are deserving of top-tier grades.

 

That's not to say teams don't reach and trade up for second tier QBs.. they do.  But it often results in a significant multi-year setback (QB purgatory plus lost draft capital) when they're wrong.

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2 hours ago, twfish said:

You could pick a bad (insert any position) in the first round. The issue is a starting QB is a lot harder to find after the first round vs any other position.

How many starting quarterbacks were first-round picks? I haven't seen any percentages.

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3 hours ago, Archer said:


Yeah, I’ve got Gordon in the third right now.  Watch the EWS this weekend - there’s a riser named James Morgan at Florida Int’l that’s getting some head turns at practice.  6’4”, 213.  Unimpressive college stats, but seemed to be a running O.  Captain Morgan...hmmmm...those letters could start coming from sea...

 

I'll drink to that.

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

This is something that goes underappreciated by fans - teams trade for QBs in the top 10. 

 

In the last 4 years, 10 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 of the draft. 

 

Out of those 10:

-7 were drafted after their team traded up in the draft in order to secure the guy. 

-2 were drafted no. 1 so their team didn't have to trade up to get them because they already had the highest possible pick

-1(Daniel Jones) was drafted  without a trade up by the GM that hates moving in the draft 

 

IMO it's very likely that if we get a QB we will trade up to get him. If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft. 

 

I totally agree with you.

And I expect there to be a lot of excitement around picks 2, 3, and 4, where we have three teams that most likely will not be drafting a QB, and could be shopping their picks for anyone that wants to get in front of Miami at pick 5.  It's quite possible that we will see Burrow, Herbert, and Tagovailoa all go in the top 5.  After that, there will still be teams that need, Need, NEED a quarterback, that will be daring themselves to reach for the next one on the list far earlier than he should truly be rated.

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I think the panthers are going to go defense. Rhule said he was going to work on defense first. He also said he needs to figure out the QB position. I think they are going to wait and see what they have in quarterbacks before using a high pick on one. He is also on record as saying he thought Grier was pro ready when he had to coach against him. They would probably be smart to see if Cam is healthy and see what Grier has in him. With their star line backer retiring I can see them drafting Simmons.

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It’s going to be interesting to see if the chargers bring  Rivers back on more then a one year deal. If they do you can probably scratch QB off of their list also. What would be fascinating is if Herbert and Love are both there which one they would pick if they take a QB.

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Probably more bad picks of quarterbacks than any other position also. The Colts have been lucky in that regard so far. I don't think we should push our luck this year. We didn't have to reach for the last two.

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2 minutes ago, Orioles22 said:

Probably more bad picks of quarterbacks than any other position also. The Colts have been lucky in that regard so far. I don't think we should push our luck this year. We didn't have to reach for the last two.

Is it bad picks or just bad organizations. How many failed picks could of been really good had they went to a team with a good coach and put talent around them.

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6 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

tua or love would not be a reach, both could be very good

 

I've seen Love in the second round in several mock drafts - so I would call 13 a reach. Tua won't last until 13, so I agree there, but I wouldn't take a chance with his injury.

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Just now, Orioles22 said:

I've seen Love in the second round in several mock drafts - so I would call 13 a reach. Tua won't last until 13, so I agree there, but I wouldn't take a chance with his injury.

 

mock drafts are laughably wrong every year

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5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Is it bad picks or just bad organizations. How many failed picks could of been really good had they went to a team with a good coach and put talent around them.

Are you saying Reich could turn Love into a great NFL quarterback? Maybe he could. I hope he does if we take him.

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9 minutes ago, Orioles22 said:

Are you right every year? Who are we taking?

i'll go with love. hard to say who will be there i would take tua over him if hes there.  not scared of that injury 

 

lots of mocks have love going in the first, some of them to us.  

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We have needs that can be addressed in the first and 2nd round. DT at #1, TE if the ND TE falls, if not WR and OT in round 2. There's always a great value that falls, we just have to wait.

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1 hour ago, Orioles22 said:

Probably more bad picks of quarterbacks than any other position also. The Colts have been lucky in that regard so far. I don't think we should push our luck this year. We didn't have to reach for the last two.

 

There is a chart floating around somewhere that shows busts by position; If I remember correctly the bust rate between Qb and other positions was not that big of difference. (maybe some one who has that chart or knows offhand where it was last posted will chime in).  

 

We didn't have to reach (or take as big of chance) on the last two because we had the #1 pick.  Do you see us being in that position in the near future?  If I knew we could roll with JB and pick #1 next year and have our choice between Lawrence and Fields I would be all for totally skipping drafting a QB this year.  But reality is whether this year or next odds are we are going to have to roll the dice, take a chance, and draft a QB (higher than we might want to) who has more risk than Manning, Luck, etc ...

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1 hour ago, Orioles22 said:

Are you saying Reich could turn Love into a great NFL quarterback? Maybe he could. I hope he does if we take him.

Of course I think he could. 

 

So much of whether a QB has success depends on so much more then just being good. Going to the right organization is everything.

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Mock drafts especially before the combine and free agency are just bad. Things will change after FA. Some players will rise and others will fall after the combine. I mean some places do three and four mocks a week changing who gets who. The only two  things that are certain is the bengals and the redskins.

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If Love does really well at Senior bowl week and game, combine, and interviews he could go earlier than 13

 

Same with Herbert

 

There are many sessions of evaluations to go

 

Love could ALSO fall to 2nd round

 

I’m starting to want 3T much more than QB (unless Tua somehow fell) at13

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Excluding Borrow since he'll go #1, if Ballard ranks one QB substantially higher than another, I would think he would trade up a few slots from 13 if that QB is there at maybe 8 or so.  I doubt that he would use the capital it would take to trade up more than a few slots.

 

If he ranks two or three QBs similarly, I would think he would simply wait to which ever QBs remain at 13 and take his best choice.  There may be just be one QB left.

 

During the 2018 draft, when he traded down and took Nelson, I remember him saying that he did not want to trade back any farther because there were 7 or 8 elite players and he wanted to be assured to get one of them.  He wasn't necessarily wanting any particular player of the lot, but he wanted an elite player.  I assume if he thinks two or three of his Qbs will be there at 13, he probably won't trade up, thinking he will get one of them.  This only works if he ranks multiple Qbs fairly equally.

 

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I still think many of you have convinced yourself that some of these marginal guys are going to be franchise quarterbacks. I don't think Ballard will do that. We have needed to draft an impact defensive tackle for several years and have let it slide. It's time.

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58 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Of course I think he could. 

 

So much of whether a QB has success depends on so much more then just being good. Going to the right organization is everything.

Why didn't he do that for Brissett in two years?

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5 hours ago, ponyboy said:

 

IMO you would only want to do this if you're targeting a top-tier QB.  I only see one healthy top-tier QB in the 2020 draft and he's going #1, and it's very unlikely any team could get the Bengals to trade that pick.  Tua is a top-tier QB with serious injury risks, but a team might have to trade into the top 10 to get him.

 

Other than those two, I only see a group of second tier QBs (like Haskins and Lock last year).  Of course, that's just my novice opinion and experts will certainly have better opinions whether some of this remaining group are deserving of top-tier grades.

 

That's not to say teams don't reach and trade up for second tier QBs.. they do.  But it often results in a significant multi-year setback (QB purgatory plus lost draft capital) when they're wrong.

So I’m very glad you brought up this point because I think this is a common misconception that people have that we need to shed some light on.

 

So there is this idea that you only draft a QB In the 1st round if he’s a legitimate blue chip can’t miss prospect who can be the next Brees, Rodgers, etc... That’s flawed logic IMO because those type of QBs come around once in a decade, and even some of those guys don’t like up to expectations (Sam Bradford). And you also can’t put your chips in on finding the next late round QB steal because those guys also come around once in a generation (Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Prescott, etc...).

 

Realistically what you get is 1st round QBs who are middle of the pack guys who are capable of elite seasons here and there but maybe aren’t superstars (Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, etc..) . So yes Burrow and Tua are definitely in a league of their own but it doesn’t mean you don’t take a Herbert or a Love in the 1st. You still take a swing because what we’ve seen lately is teams taking guys with elite tools and putting them in their systems that highlight their strengths and mask their flaws. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the two examples I love to use. Both have very clear limitations, but they were drafted to teams where they fit what the identity of the team offensively is and they’re allowed to be themselves.

 

So yes Love and Herbert may not be the prospects that Tua or Burrow are, but in the right situation they can both flourish. I’d still take a swing if you feel like he’s “your guy”. Also remember that you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take..

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12 hours ago, stitches said:

This is something that goes underappreciated by fans - teams trade for QBs in the top 10. 

 

In the last 4 years, 10 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 of the draft. 

 

Out of those 10:

-7 were drafted after their team traded up in the draft in order to secure the guy. 

-2 were drafted no. 1 so their team didn't have to trade up to get them because they already had the highest possible pick

-1(Daniel Jones) was drafted  without a trade up by the GM that hates moving in the draft 

 

IMO it's very likely that if we get a QB we will trade up to get him. If we don't, we are likely not going to get a QB in this draft. 

 

I think we will take a QB I just think that one won’t be taken in the 1st. Instead one will be taken in a later round.

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How many of those "reach ups" work compared to the value that fall to them? The Titans gave up a ton for MM, the Bears did the same for MT.  Moving up a couple spots is one thing, moving all the way up is another. 

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11 hours ago, Orioles22 said:

Why didn't he do that for Brissett in two years?

First of all Jacoby was never intended to be the starter. I never said he could just turn any guy into a very good nfl starter. Love has all the traits and all he needs is guidance. That I think Reich can nourish and make him into a very good QB.

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1 hour ago, ColtJax said:

How many of those "reach ups" work compared to the value that fall to them? The Titans gave up a ton for MM, the Bears did the same for MT.  Moving up a couple spots is one thing, moving all the way up is another. 

Mahomes and Watson.

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52 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

First of all Jacoby was never intended to be the starter. I never said he could just turn any guy into a very good nfl starter. Love has all the traits and all he needs is guidance. That I think Reich can nourish and make him into a very good QB.

Frank, I believe, said he was a "top 20 quarterback" and they had every confidence he would a good quarterback. It sounds like Love has some of the same traits as Brissett.

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