Ballard Team Building With JB or Draft

[EastStreet]

33 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Sure, but i think Ballard had it worse.

  If out team was as healthy as SF, that is , we had Luck, our WRs, Mack & hilton all year, we may be where they are.

I won't compare starting rosters for the both (in terms of GM rebuild), but SF is actually as banged up, or more, than us over the year. Yes the loss of Luck hurts big time, but the cumulative value of injuries is the same, and SF actually had more man games lost. 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, Orioles22 said:

I thought Bonago was at end. I'd like another elite linebacker to go with Leonard, even though I admit it's not a top priority.

Walker had less snaps then Leonard despite Darius playing three less games. Yet walker had more tackles. Walker lead in tackles. We have a great LB next to Leonard. I expect walker to get extended this off season.

[MPStack]

6 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I like Reich...but Shanahan was the HC I wanted most. Lynch nailed that and the Jimmy G trade (this far). It’s time for Ballard to show us what he can do at the QB position.

I think there’s some similarities, both GMs (Lynch and Ballard) are or either have faced with their teams. Lynch is on track, there’s no reason to believe Ballard can’t achieve similar success.  I think this will be a pivotal off-season to getting the Colts back on track,  
 

 

[EastStreet]

41 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

People need to focus on this.

 

This is the obvious and best approach.  The odds of finding that “elite” QB even at #13 isnt as easy as some seem to think.  
Even with QB, you still have to stick to Your core draft values.  
 

The statement Holder made sums it up quite nicely i think.

Ballard will upgrade the position when the opportunity comes , or can be facilitated in a way that doesn't reach (too much) or put our team in a bad position.  Not that unlike all positions.
Common sense, no? 

Approximate value is virtually the same for 1st and 2nd round QB picks (first link). Also, QB first round bust rate 40% is about the same as the chance of getting a pro bowler 42% over a 25 year sample (second link)

 

To add, there are more non-top 10 pick QBs that are in the playoffs, and QBs with top 10 QBRs, than there are from QBs that were picked in the top 10.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

PS... Holder is horrible. 

[WoolMagnet]

1 hour ago, MPStack said:

Fair enough, and my thoughts are more or less, Ballard can make the team a contender in a short period of time moving forward. Much like Lynch has done in San Fran. 
 

 

 

 

I think he can.  Of course, he also thought Luck would be here for another 10 years, and he thought McD was coming.... what could be next?

  But seriously, not long ago most here were MORE than happy with the state and direction of this roster, even after Luck loss.

Fast forward past many injuries at the skill positions, a crazy # of missed kicks (CRAZY amount of misses....historic i think), and many rookies and YOUNG guys all over the field.  

The players and coaches have to improve and Ballard has to have a “good” draft and FA, sure, but i see far more positive than negative. 
JB needs to improve AND we need to look to improve (realistically speaking)  at the position.  BOTH really need to happen to put us in the best position in the short-term AND long-term, imo.
 

[WoolMagnet]

52 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Bottom line if a QB they love is there that has to be the pick. Yes they won’t reach at 13.  Only if it’s the right QB.

I agree. Grab him if you like him.  But some act like you take one regardless because “you  just HAVE to.”

[WoolMagnet]

41 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Approximate value is virtually the same for 1st and 2nd round QB picks (first link). Also, QB first round bust rate 40% is about the same as the chance of getting a pro bowler 42% over a 25 year sample (second link)

 

To add, there are more non-top 10 pick QBs that are in the playoffs, and QBs with top 10 QBRs, than there are from QBs that were picked in the top 10.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

PS... Holder is horrible. 

Okay......?

i’m not for or against really.  If i knew what the scouts, GMs do, i could comment.  I just gotta hope and expect Ballard will do due diligence and make the best “bets.”

i wish i knew more about these QBs.  (From my own eyes)

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

He's not played anything but DE since April, so I think it's safe to say he's a DE..

You may be right, but I don’t think that’s how it works.   They called Benagu a linebacker on draft night even though that wasn’t where he played.  
 

If they had the idea once, there’s nothing stopping them from trying it again in the off-season.  For at least a while.   I’m not predicting this WILL happen, I’m only saying this might happen, it could happen.

 

I prefer BB at DE.  I’m just trying not to rule anything out at this point.   The idea was important once.   It might be again in the off-season.  

[CheezyColt]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Bottom line if a QB they love is there that has to be the pick. Yes they won’t reach at 13.  Only if it’s the right QB.

I agree with this. It has to be a QB they love though.  If Jordan Love, or Herbert, or Eason is available, and they don't take that guy, then it's pretty clear they don't view that guy as franchise material. In which case,  taking a Kinlaw, or CB, or OT, or WR, or whatever, is understandable. The answers won't come until 2 or 3 years after as far as if it was worth it. 

[EastStreet]

59 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Okay......?

i’m not for or against really.  If i knew what the scouts, GMs do, i could comment.  I just gotta hope and expect Ballard will do due diligence and make the best “bets.”

i wish i knew more about these QBs.  (From my own eyes)

Not trying to bag on you. Just trying to give you some info on the history of draft value and success rates through the rounds, bust rates, etc.. Most folks don't realize that most of the top 10 guys were not early 1st round picks.

 

And I'm with you. I'm sure Ballard and his crew of scouts and stats geeks will turn over every tiny stone on these guys.

 

Herbert is playing tomorrow if you want to watch one of the possibilities.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

You may be right, but I don’t think that’s how it works.   They called Benagu a linebacker on draft night even though that wasn’t where he played.  
 

If they had the idea once, there’s nothing stopping them from trying it again in the off-season.  For at least a while.   I’m not predicting this WILL happen, I’m only saying this might happen, it could happen.

 

I prefer BB at DE.  I’m just trying not to rule anything out at this point.   The idea was important once.   It might be again in the off-season.  

 

He's correct. The experiment was over quickly. From what I heard, they thought because of his low weight and agility scores coming in, he might be able to play a tweener role in certain packages. Evidently the lateral ability was not good enough. SAM needs a guy that can contain, which is why they moved Oke to SAM the last 3rd of the season from MLB.

 

I don't see Banogu getting another shot at LB/SAM. They seem to be focusing him on technique at DE, which is what all the scouts called for coming in.

 

As far a LB is concerned, WILL and SAM are set. I can see them taking a depth MLB in the draft or FA, but it's a relatively low priority.

[Colts_Fan12]

2 hours ago, shastamasta said:

I like Reich...but Shanahan was the HC I wanted most. Lynch nailed that and the Jimmy G trade (this far). It’s time for Ballard to show us what he can do at the QB position.

I was the same way I wanted to fire chuck earlier amd get Shanahan but I do like Frank tho so I'm not to upset. I honestly believe with better QB play Frank will really show how good he is.

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Approximate value is virtually the same for 1st and 2nd round QB picks (first link). Also, QB first round bust rate 40% is about the same as the chance of getting a pro bowler 42% over a 25 year sample (second link)

 

To add, there are more non-top 10 pick QBs that are in the playoffs, and QBs with top 10 QBRs, than there are from QBs that were picked in the top 10.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

PS... Holder is horrible. 

Holder is probably the worst.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

9 hours ago, shastamasta said:

I didn't hear the podcast...but first 2017 was an outlier...and now 2019 is an outlier?

I may have misspoke. He didn’t say outlier for 2019 but he did say it was filled with such devastinf injuries at one position (WR) that it is almost unfair for JB. They even quoted TY as saying he had never seen some many players from one position group go down like that. 
 

don’t get me wrong, they both said that JB has to be better but that all Colts fans should be rooting for him to improve because he is the best option FOR NEXT YEAR. 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

5 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I agree. Grab him if you like him.  But some act like you take one regardless because “you  just HAVE to.”

I completely agree with this. Take one if you like him and he is rated 1st round. If not take a playmaker that can improve the team and grab one later. 

[aaron11]

6 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I agree. Grab him if you like him.  But some act like you take one regardless because “you  just HAVE to.”

i feel we have to because there are 4 first round QBs and and JB isnt good enough 

 

i hope they dont sit back and say none of them fell to us when we can move up and get them 

 

 

[TheMiz]

The Patriots have won 6 Super Bowls. Only one time did they win one with a defensive ranking worse than 10th 

3 of their Super Bowl victories they had the 1 or 2 rated defense. 

You have to have balance. Being dominant on one side of the ball or the other does nothing for you. You have to be really really good in every phase of the game. 

It is extremely rare to see a team completely carried by a dominant defense with a lackluster offense, though there are a few examples in somewhat recent memory. Ravens, Bucs, most recently Broncos.

When building a team you have to have that balance in mind throughout the entire process. If you build for a dominant D, after the years it takes to get that the offense will be terrible because you neglected it in the process. Or vice versa. You cannot just focus on one side of the ball and say this side will be dominant, that's a recipe for disaster

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

i feel we have to because there are 4 first round QBs and and JB isnt good enough 

 

i hope they dont sit back and say none of them fell to us when we can move up and get them 

 

 

If there is a run on QB in the first they aren’t going to just take Anthony Gotdon at 13 because he is the only one left. That would mean passing over maybe CEEDEE Lamb or a Derek Kinlaw. Everyone is going to have to be patient because this might not be easy finding the next QB. 

[RollerColt]

1 hour ago, TheMiz said:

You have to have balance. Being dominant on one side of the ball or the other does nothing for you. You have to be really really good in every phase of the game. 

Well stated, if you want sustained success, you have to have a system of replenishment along with a strong foundation of key positions on both sides. QB, LT, DEs, WRs are needed for starters. Having just a dominant defense can win you a championship sure, but it’s usually just a flash in the pan kind of thing. 
 

When I think of teams that sustain that kind of success and balance for years, in terms of being competitive for a long duration, I think of the Seahawks, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Saints. They have strong offenses and defenses that both can change the game and win for the team. 

[Hoose]

So much will depend on the Combine and workouts. A QB like Jordan Love could climb into the late first round if he shines. But if Ballard is true to the podcast's premise, then a solid 3 tech DT at #13 should be there. And unless he blows the doors off his workouts, Love has a very good chance of being there at #34. I can see a DT-Love-WR scenario with the first three picks. 

[fahlman]

14 hours ago, #12. said:

It's not impossible, however, to draft and groom an elite QB and win consistently with that QB over many years.

They grow on trees.

[NewColtsFan]

8 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I was the same way I wanted to fire chuck earlier amd get Shanahan but I do like Frank tho so I'm not to upset. I honestly believe with better QB play Frank will really show how good he is.

Frank Already did show us just how good he is with better quarterback play. 
 

The year was 2018.   The quarterback was Andrew Luck. 

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

Holder is probably the worst.

There's another guy from the Star that's as bad or worse, but Holder definitely is terrible. Little to no journalistic quality to his stuff. If anything, he's overly concerned with "access", and constantly parrots the FO instead of challenging things that need to be challenged.

[ClaytonColt]

I've been wanting the Colts to build a dominant defense for years but we always seems to get dragged into an "offense solves all" mentality.

 

Would love it if we could actually achieve it but we seem to be starting from a very low base IMO.

[#12.]

1 minute ago, fahlman said:

They grow on trees.

 

You have a much greater chance at landing one or grooming one than you do winning with Jacoby Brissett or Josh Allen over a long period of time.  That's the point.  Look, I realize it's Holder and whoever just throwing things out there, but if Buffalo is the top of your aspirations, I don't know what you are doing. This should have been a humbling season for Ballard.   You were possibly Super Bowl contenders with Luck, absolute chumps without him. You need high level QB play to win consistently in this league.  You can't go bargain shopping for a QB.  The teams that have won consistently over the past 15-20 years have done it with high level QB play, not with defense.  Even the Patriots have had to go up and down the field for long stretches to beat people.

[#12.]

5 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

I've been wanting the Colts to build a dominant defense for years but we always seems to get dragged into an "offense solves all" mentality.

 

We don't even have a QB though.  Get the most important position on the field first and then decide what to put around him.

[ClaytonColt]

2 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

We don't even have a QB though.  Get the most important position on the field first and then decide what to put around him.

I don't necessarily disagree but I don't want us to try and force it if there isn't an answer out there at quarterback. 

 

Philosophically I prefer teams to be built around an dominant defense and an elite QB. If there isn't a QB available who we feel could reach that level then just keep adding talent to the crucial positions on the D.

[MPStack]

9 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

You have a much greater chance at landing one or grooming one than you do winning with Jacoby Brissett or Josh Allen over a long period of time.  

I don’t get the JB and J. Allen comparison here.
 

Two completely different QBs, one highly drafted, (Allen), but extremely raw playing as a rookie and improved in just about everything year two. A player who probably hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.

 

Brissett, well is the opposite! 

[stitches]

10 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

Okay......?

i’m not for or against really.  If i knew what the scouts, GMs do, i could comment.  I just gotta hope and expect Ballard will do due diligence and make the best “bets.”

i wish i knew more about these QBs.  (From my own eyes)

There are tapes of them all on youtube. If you have the time to watch cut ups of their games... some of them are fun to watch. 

[#12.]

7 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I don’t get the JB and J. Allen comparison here.
 

Two completely different QBs, one highly drafted, (Allen), but extremely raw playing as a rookie and improved in just about everything year two. A player who probably hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.

 

Brissett, well is the opposite! 

 

According to the OP, it's what Holder was going with.  I get it to a degree.  Allen is probably never going to carry a team, and with a better team, you might be able to get 10 wins out of Brissett, but like I said, if that's the top of your aspirations, I don't know what you are doing.

 

OP:

 

They both stated that he wanted a top 5 defense and that a model to look at was the Buffalo Bills. They have an amazing defense and Josh Allen is average. They compared his stats and in a lot of categories he was below JB. 

 

[Colts_Fan12]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Frank Already did show us just how good he is with better quarterback play. 
 

The year was 2018.   The quarterback was Andrew Luck. 

I agree that's what I told people when they would say stupid stuff about Frank this season. he literally was amazing with an actual good QB last year get him a QB again and he will be just fine.

[CR91]

If by some miracle Tua or Herbert are there at 13, Ballard won't pass on them. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I agree that's what I told people when they would say stupid stuff about Frank this season. he literally was amazing with an actual good QB last year get him a QB again and he will be just fine.

I like Frank a lot, but he did have several head scratching game plans both last year and this year.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

If by some miracle Tua or Herbert are there at 13, Ballard won't pass on them. 

Doubt  he passes on Love either. The more I am reading Love has a great work ethic to want to be great. He submerges himself in football. Herbert has a lot of the same personality traits as luck. Smart as can be and has a lot of aspirations after football.  That worries me just a bit. Excited to see Herbert play today and love in the senior bowl. TUA is to big of a risk in my opinion. Rumblings are starting to happen he might go back to school.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I like Frank a lot, but he did have several head scratching game plans both last year and this year.

As much as I think he could of been better he didn’t have much to work with. Like someone mentioned he was good at hiding the warts first half of the season. Second half he couldn’t hide them anymore. That goes for both the QB play and the skilled offensive players we lacked. 

[DougDew]

It wasn't about a dominant D.  It was a top 5 D.  I assume that phrase is reflective of the narrow measurement of using stats  to try to judge the quality of the D.

 

A good step towards achieving top 5 defensive stats would be to limit the amount of possessions the opponent has by having a competent offense.  A good way to do that is to find a QB that thrives on chain moving plays and doesn't throw interceptions.

 

The more 3 and outs we have, the more picks we throw; the more the opponent possesses the ball and accumulates yards and TDs, especially if the 3 and outs and turnovers give the opponent good field position where their offense becomes more aggressive.

 

Fewer offensive possessions by the opponents O will help create top 5 defensive stats, at least the main stats that get focused on.

 

 

 

.

[Fisticuffs111]

It’s hard to build a top 5 defense, and even harder to maintain it.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

7 hours ago, aaron11 said:

i feel we have to because there are 4 first round QBs and and JB isnt good enough 

 

i hope they dont sit back and say none of them fell to us when we can move up and get them 

 

 

All I’ll say to this is that you think there are 4 first round QBs. Ballard and Reich may not. Their opinion matter way more than any of ours. 

[DougDew]

I'm assuming Ballard doesn't believe its possible to have a top 5 defense every season.  It would be the basis by which we made a SB run.

 

Top 5 would the general ranking over a long period.  Some years in that bucket and other years just outside of that bucket.  Below top 15 would hopefully be rare.

[lennymoore24]

I am still having a hard time understand how anyone sees a brighter future for Brissett.  He has started essentially two years under different coaches and has had the same result.  Think of any young QB that came into the league that became good or great.  They make mistakes at first but you see those flashes.  Manning was terrible with interceptions as a rookie but you could see him come on as the season went along.  Luck made his mistakes but you could see him rising when behind.  Brissett, after two years, has shown nothing.  For those pointing out they were 5-2, remember we had a weak schedule and some fortunate bounces.  We were not that good.  

 

It seems to me we have a double standard with Brissett.  If Quincy Wilson doesn't practice well, he is in the doghouse and never plays.  If Jonathon Williams doesn't do well starting in second game and he is benched.  But Brissett can bomb and gets week after week, year after year.