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Re-evaluate Eberflus


Mr.Debonair

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13 hours ago, Mr.Debonair said:

Defense has been bad! Spent most of the draft on that side of the ball and it took a step back. The scheme sucks. We gave up big plays everywhere. Down the sideline, middle of the field, we never cover the back out the backfield. Blitzes were obvious and didn’t hit home often enough. A bunch of issues. 

 

Either there is a disconnect with what is being taught or Eberflus is getting out coached. I know wasn’t a Reich guy. We made a lot of average QBs look great.

The Tampa 2 defense is a defense that is designed to play with a lead. Which is why it excelled in the Manning Era, because the Offense was so potent and could put up points. It’s not really a great defense playing from behind. I’m not a fan of the defense at all. And I don’t think we are properly utilizing are defenders to their full capabilities in a cover 2 scheme. I personally would prefer we played more of a style of defense that the Seahawks are known for. But we don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle to make that style of defense work.

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13 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Autry, Willis and Moore were out today. We have a very young defense. He is still safe. The secondary will look bad until we get a better dline.

We also need a second cover safety, Geathers is awful in coverage and a better corner to replace Desir it’s not just only on the defensive line. 

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34 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Did u happen to see the 49ers roster? They have 5 1st round draft choices on their D line. Even with that talent up front,  I still would not call them an elite D.

Point being if you have the right players and run the zone the right way zone defense does work.  I am not saying the Colts are the 49ers defense.  I was responding to the idea that the zone never ever works.

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I'm sure I will repeat this a bunch during the off season:  This will be a long post, so I apologize.

 

The zone scheme is fine, it's used by a lot of teams with success.

 

Flus is a new DC and he is learning... of course he makes mistakes, big whoop.

 

Most of the season the Colts were starting 2 or 3 rookies on the defense additionally, they had several 1 year starters.  Considering all pro vets make mistakes, it's not hard to imagine that rookies and 1 year starters will also make mistakes.  And when you have several of those players on the field at the same time, mistakes can happen at that same time.  If people look at things objectively

 

Sheard - Solid DE against the run and offers some pass rush - probably at his ceiling which is good, hopefully he will remain a Colt for a few more years

 

Autry - Was horrible all season.  Colts were expecting him to at least be as good as last year and he wasn't - It is time to find a DT to replace him for the majority of snaps.

 

Hunt - People on this board knock him because he struggled a bit in the first few games but after that he played as well as he did last year.  But he got a few lucky sacks last year and so fans were expecting 5-7 sacks from him again, that was not and is not his game.  He still held his point on the line and was a big reason why the Colts still have a very good run D.

 

Stewart - Showed great improvement through out the year.  The Colts have the double team eating, run stopping DT set.  If Hunt can spell him for 10-15 snaps a game then they have a good rotation, but Hunt had to play Autry's snaps on running downs this year.

 

Houston - He was a pleasant surprise.  It took him a few games to learn the 4-3DE position but once he did he showed he was worth signing.  Easily the Colts best DL this year and he probably has another year or two left in his body.

 

LBers - I won't break them down individually but I think the Colts are set starting LBers and Backups.  Leonard, Walker, Okereke, and Adams are all good starters.  I wish they could combine Oke's pass coverage with Adams aggressive/tackling but both are good in their own way.

 

Desir - Desir played well early in the season but was never the same after his injury.  But with his body of work, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

Ya-Sin - He had his struggles but he improved every week.  Personally I think he will great for the Colts... assuming he has the work ethic to work at his craft and improve.

 

Moore - Not only is Moore great for this defense but he is an elite nickle corner

 

So the corners are in good shape... And Tell to the mix and you have 4 starting quality CBs, kind of hard to ask more than that with a 53 player limit and salary cap.

 

Safeties - I think Willis will be good assuming he can stay healthy but, IMO both Geathers and Hooker need to be replaced.  I have never been a fan of Hooker since the draft (I do not think teams should draft a 1 year college starter in the 1st round) and I have not seen some of the things that other people have seen in him.  He's a great athlete but his field awareness is greatly lacking.  For Geathers, he is a hard hitter when he's running down hill but I think he is too limited in his agility and acceleration to be a good safety.

 

So there is some improvement needed on the defense.  But not a complete overhaul... And a good portion of that improvement will come from players improving, not new players...another DT to replace Autry, which the Colts should be able to get a good one at #13.  A starting safety (whihc they will probably stick with Hooker for 1 more year) and a couple of backup safeties.  And then some DEs to work into the rotation.  Turray and Banogu may be those guys, I don't know.

 

Now regarding the scheme.  IMO Flus should have adjusted the scheme about to account for lack of pass rush.  One thing I saw over and over again is people are dropping into their zones and the longer the QB held onto the ball the deeper they dropped and then the QB would dump it off short and there was no one within 12 yards of the receiver/RB, so that was an easy 8-12 yard gain.  It's easy to say he should have kept 1 or 2 zone players from dropping so deep but then  things would have been open deeper down the field.  My thought is, deep passes are hard to complete than 2-3 yard dump passes... force the QB to complete two or three long passes a drive, not 8 or 9 short ones.

 

Some examples from yesterday's game that I don't think can be laid on 'Flus, but I don't know.  Boddy-Calhoun was the worst offender but there were several passes where Boddy would break to run with the receiver but then, rather than running with the receiver he would float backwards while the receiver ran flat.  That was an easy completion for Minshew and then an easy 4 or 5 more yards for the receiver. 

 

Last year, I felt the defense looked better than it was because of the lack of quality QBs the Colts played, so I had no illusions of them being a top 10 or 15 D this year but I do think, with the new players, they are going in the right direction.  Also last year, 'Flus did a good job of disguising coverages and mixing things up on the D side... I don't think he forgot how to do that, I think it was a combination of playing a lot of rookies and 1st year players throughout the year combined with the Colts coaching staff perhaps, after Luck retired, treating this as a lost year and not focusing on the game plan as much (or perhaps there is another explanation for the Colts running the ball 4 times in the 2nd half against the worst run defense in the league).

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1 hour ago, ProblChld32 said:

We also need a second cover safety, Geathers is awful in coverage and a better corner to replace Desir it’s not just only on the defensive line. 

While we are pointing out blame in covering, Hooker has looked like a hot piece of dog feces lately. Not sure what’s up with him. Is he hurt, lack of caring or the scheme is not allowing him to showcase his skill set. Something isn’t right with Hooker for sure. 
 

our strong suit is our lb’ers now, and even then, it’s not like they are the dominant group in the league. Eberflus has to add more wrinkles into this defense than it’s vanilla shell we so frequently are seeing.  I do recall an article early in the year that quoted a few other “anonymous” GM’s  that said planning or playing against our defense was the most simplistic defense of the league. Or something like that. Eberflus either isn’t that creative or CB has him cornered down to certain parameters. Idk something must change next season for sure. Maybe with Turay and Houston on the field together and a better DT, the back end looks better. I’d just like to see more creative packaging from Eberflus than we’ve seen so far. Look at the Dallas team he was a part of, they have some wrinkles in their defense. 

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1 minute ago, Jdubu said:

While we are pointing out blame in covering, Hooker has looked like a hot piece of dog feces lately. Not sure what’s up with him. Is he hurt, lack of caring or the scheme is not allowing him to showcase his skill set. Something isn’t right with Hooker for sure. 
 

our strong suit is our lb’ers now, and even then, it’s not like they are the dominant group in the league. Eberflus has to add more wrinkles into this defense than it’s vanilla shell we so frequently are seeing.  I do recall an article early in the year that quoted a few other “anonymous” GM’s  that said planning or playing against our defense was the most simplistic defense of the league. Or something like that. Eberflus either isn’t that creative or CB has him cornered down to certain parameters. Idk something must change next season for sure. Maybe with Turay and Houston on the field together and a better DT, the back end looks better. I’d just like to see more creative packaging from Eberflus than we’ve seen so far. Look at the Dallas team he was a part of, they have some wrinkles in their defense. 


In my honest opinion Hooker isn’t being used appropriately. If you look at his better seasons when healthy he was used as a single high safety. That is honestly where he excels at, in a cover two scheme he just doesn’t play as well. I will say his tackling has improved which is vastly because he is now required to play in the box more than what he is used to. 

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Geathers has already lost his starting job to Willis. I am ok keeping him as a backup. Desir has battled injuries all year.

I wouldn’t say lost he actually played a significant amount of snaps towards the latter of the season which was due to injury but they have sort of shared duties in the secondary. I’d prefer not to have Geathers back as a backup and let him walk. 

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6 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

 

 

Safeties - I think Willis will be good assuming he can stay healthy but, IMO both Geathers and Hooker need to be replaced.  I have never been a fan of Hooker since the draft (I do not think teams should draft a 1 year college starter in the 1st round) and I have not seen some of the things that other people have seen in him.  He's a great athlete but his field awareness is greatly lacking.  For Geathers, he is a hard hitter when he's running down hill but I think he is too limited in his agility and acceleration to be a good safety.

 

 

Didn't want to copy your entire post, but wanted to lift up a couple of things.  First, I agree with almost all of it, but think your evaluation of the Stewart/Hunt combo is a bit generous.  

 

To the bolded:  I think I'll be harping on this until the end of the draft.  The Colts seem to fail when they look at the height of a player's ceiling rather than the height of their floor.  When they draft a genetic wonder with the idea of turning it into a football player, or a player for a specialized role, the results don't seem to be very good.   This record covers this GM and our last.  Hooker, Campbell, TJGreen, Djoun Smith, Philip Dorsett all had elite "traits" but never displayed elite play while in college (Hooker also had some stud CBs to play with).  Even Banagu, Turay, and Lewis fall more into the "traits" bucket than the "play record" bucket.

 

Contrast that with Nelson, Leonard, and Smith.  Leonard was a small school guy, but was extremely productive.  I think Smith, at the time he was drafted, had the most career college starts of any olineman actively playing in the SEC.  IMO, if you are a 4 or 5 year starter for a major college like Auburn, you're probably an NFL caliber player.

 

I'm hoping we don't pick a "traits guy" with any of our top three picks.  Save that thinking for the Cain types in the 5th round. 

 

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2 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

I wouldn’t say lost he actually played a significant amount of snaps towards the latter of the season which was due to injury but they have sort of shared duties in the secondary. I’d prefer not to have Geathers back as a backup and let him walk. 

Geathers had basically played zero snaps on defense and only played ST a couple games right before Willis got hurt.

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6 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

Well Hooker would be our first. He is the best cover safety that we have. 

Hooker was never a man-cover safety, but he was thought to have the "traits" to develop into one. 

 

I think what you're talking about is covering the single high zone.  Its still a zone.  But playing lower towards the LOS and turning and running with a receiver in a zone is not really his thing, and that's how I would think of a cover safety in a zone scheme....IMO.

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14 hours ago, DougDew said:

Its the personnel.

I don't agree. It's a case of square pegs in round holes - with the round holes being the defensive scheme. We have the foundation (although they are young) to implement a flex Cover 3 / man / man-press defense. It will take some time to put together this sophisticated defense. Whether or not Eberflus can put it all together remains to be seen.

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6 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

I don't agree. It's a case of square pegs in round holes - with the round holes being the defensive scheme. We have the foundation (although they are young) to implement a flex Cover 3 / man / man-press defense. It will take some time to put together this sophisticated defense. Whether or not Eberflus can put it all together remains to be seen.

That's an additional element. 

 

I was looking at the old Tampa D and the old Colts D when we won the SB. And Chicago's D under Lovee.  They had legit players at 3tech (we had Booger, they had Sapp and Tommie Harris), they had legit ILB ( Brooks, Urlacher) we all had SSs (Lynch, Bob Sanders, Mike Minter).  We all had good CBs, (Marlin Jackson/Hayden, the Bears had the CB we let go, and TB had the twin of the NYGs RB ....apologies for being too old to remember those names)

 

Currently, our 3tech and SSs are scrubs, and the CBs have yet to show they belong.  Leonard is the only good player.

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

That's an additional element. 

 

I was looking at the old Tampa D and the old Colts D when we won the SB. And Chicago's D under Lovee)  They had legit all pros at 3tech (we had Booger, they had Sapp and Tommie Harris), they had legit ILB ( Brooks, Urlacher) we all had SSs (Lynch, Bob Sanders, Mike Minter).  We all had good CBs, (Marlin Jackson/Hayden, the Bears had the CB we let go, and TB had the twin of the NYGs RB ....apologies for being too old to remember those names)

 

Currently, our 3tech and SSs are scrubs, and the CBs have yet to show they belong.  Leonard is the only good player.

While it had its weaknesses, look at Seattle's D 3 years ago. Give our rookies a year or two.

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32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'm hoping we don't pick a "traits guy" with any of our top three picks.  Save that thinking for the Cain types in the 5th round. 


Yeah, the Turay’s, Lewis and Banogu’s seem more like “specialist” to me. Meaning their not 3 down players. I don’t like seeing the high draft capital invested like that. 
 

The Ravens seem to take guys like that in the middle rounds and hit frequently. 

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9 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

And the defense did the offense a lot of favors.... it goes both ways (well 3 ways, and our STs other than week 16 when Hines broke off 2 TD returns didn't give the O or the D any favors either).  Injuries took their toll after a pretty fast start, unfortunately and most of our losses were a result of losing all 3 phases of the game.  Nobody should get a pass, but I don't think the season was as bad as a  lot make it out to be (given injuries, Luck's retirement, Vinny's issues, etc. this season could've probably been a lot worse)

 

The offense had numerous opportunities to cash in on a stop or a turnover by the defense only to go three and out

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19 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

While it had its weaknesses, look at Seattle's D 3 years ago. Give our rookies a year or two.

Seattle's D line probably had 3 players who were all better than our best d lineman now.  We may have a Bobby Wagner, but we definitely do not have Earl Thomas.

 

I'm fine with LBs and our corners.  They show signs of being good, as does one of our safeties, Willis.

 

Our dline and remaining safeties are not good enough to play in any scheme, IMO.  We may be able to cobble together a good season, but they are not good enough to think about us having a perennially good defense, IMO.

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6 minutes ago, MPStack said:


Yeah, the Turay’s, Lewis and Banogu’s seem more like “specialist” to me. Meaning there not 3 down players. I don’t like seeing the high draft capital invested like that. 
 

The Ravens seem to take guys like that in the middle rounds and hit frequently. 

To me, there is not much difference between late 2nd or 3rd, So I don't mind so much Turay at 20 or Lewis at the end of the 2nd.  CB seems to have made a mistake with Lewis but I don't expect a GM to bat .1000 with draft picks.

 

With Banogu, he is switching positions but I think he will be a 3 down DE, not next year but the year after that.

 

Lastly, I think Irsay made a mistake by not getting rid of Pagano the same year he got rid of Grigson.  CB wasted a draft getting guys to fit the vision of Pagano's D.  Guys like Wilson and Hooker could succeed in a more aggressive D like Pags tried to run. And I think the Colts can live with Hooker for another year or 2 if they can get a DT that can consistently push the pocket.

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9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Seattle's D line probably had 3 players who were all better than our best d lineman now.  We may have a Bobby Wagner, but we definitely do not have Earl Thomas.

 

I'm fine with LBs and our corners.  They show signs of being good, as does one of our safeties, Willis.

 

Our dline and remaining safeties are not good enough to play in any scheme, IMO.  We may be able to cobble together a good season, but they are not good enough to think about us having a perennially good defense, IMO.

Add a good interior D line, and hopefully the newbies will improve.

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There needs to be more man coverage. Cover 3 and Cover 2 are too easy to beat. The opposing Wr’s are getting clean releases off the line.

 

Vontae Davis being in press man coverage 85% of the time allowed our defense to get coverage sacks. He changed how teams played offense against us. Completely took away half of the field and allowed our safeties to shift their coverage. We could use a CB of that caliber. 

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I think this D is making progress.  7th against the run, 16th in total defense, 18th in points allowed, 15th in sacks,  26 takeaways for 10th place...  And this is without a blue chip player at interior DL, edge, CB or S...   I'd suggest that this D is actually playing above it's talent level more often than not.  Plenty of room for improvement no question.  They couldn't get off the field on third down (27th), and the pass D needs to improve (23rd) which we all know has to be done with better pressure, changing coverage every now and then, and improved talent.  But middle of the road stats, middle of the road record, when paired with this offense.  That formula won't work.  I'd love to see a true disruptive interior DL be sitting there at 13.    

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6 hours ago, DougDew said:

I'd have to take the time to look back, but early in the season I watched Turay because he was having a good day at LAC.  I don't remember the exact teams, but he flourished at LAC, disappeared the next game against a good LT, flourished again against a bad LT, disappeared again against a good LT, then was doing well early and got hurt.  Because he struggled against good LTs, I can't say that his loss was a huge impact.

 

KC didn't have Hill and Mahomes couldn't move.  That is a huge variable with which to pass any type of judgment on our D.

 

With that thought, this is what happens to a great O that relies upon QB mobility.  Please let us get off of the notion that we need a mobile QB.  We need a pocket passing QB, and Mahomes is not elite when forced to do that, as our game showed.  We have the Oline to protect Herbert, Eason, Love, or even Fromm; so IMO, our decision should be about which QB can make the right decisions and hit the receiver with accuracy.  We only need mild pocket escapability, not really a running threat.

 

 

I still think Turay's loss was big.  Without him, Houston was the only DL who could pressure teh QB regardless of if we played a good OL or a bad OL.  Even if Turay was neutralized by all the good LTs, his presence still could have impacted some games vs. mediocre LTs, without him we had nobody besides Houston on the DL to do anything to even put an ounce of fear into opposing QBs or o-coordinators.

 

And yes, very rarely do mobile QBs have a long lasting impact in the NFL (Randall Cunningham was above average for a while, Vick was good for a while aside from his suspensions, but then you have guys like RGIII, Kaepernick, etc. etc. who either had injury issues from scrambling too much or who had teams figure out how to keep them in the pocket and make them average).  Lamar and Mahommes may be rare instances, but both of them have elite or next-to-elite arms and can throw from anywhere on the field, including in the pocket when need be.

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11 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

The Tampa 2 defense is a defense that is designed to play with a lead. Which is why it excelled in the Manning Era, because the Offense was so potent and could put up points. It’s not really a great defense playing from behind. I’m not a fan of the defense at all. And I don’t think we are properly utilizing are defenders to their full capabilities in a cover 2 scheme. I personally would prefer we played more of a style of defense that the Seahawks are known for. But we don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle to make that style of defense work.

 I would not be so keen to replicate the Seattle D. It was great in its time.  Owecer, listening to smart FO people, they say the Seattle D has also been exposed. Teams currently running it are not having much success stopping offenses.

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2 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

This defensive scheme is bad without a pass rush I dont care who your secondary is. It just makes you look even worse with a guy like Brees passing against you. 

I will go one step further.  I think even if u did have a pass rush, it is a bad D.  They use under sized players across the board. When I look at Baltimore, I am so envious.  Year after year they replenish their D. They draft tough players, we just men who look good in shorts.  Indy hasn't had a dominate D  before Manning played.  It is kind of disheartening.  When I heard we were going back to the zone scheme, I cringed. I love Reich as a head coach, however, I feel he is being handicapped by Ballard in terms of this defensive style.

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12 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

To me, there is not much difference between late 2nd or 3rd, So I don't mind so much Turay at 20 or Lewis at the end of the 2nd.  CB seems to have made a mistake with Lewis but I don't expect a GM to bat .1000 with draft picks.

 

With Banogu, he is switching positions but I think he will be a 3 down DE, not next year but the year after that.

 

Lastly, I think Irsay made a mistake by not getting rid of Pagano the same year he got rid of Grigson.  CB wasted a draft getting guys to fit the vision of Pagano's D.  Guys like Wilson and Hooker could succeed in a more aggressive D like Pags tried to run. And I think the Colts can live with Hooker for another year or 2 if they can get a DT that can consistently push the pocket.

I disagree totally with u giving a Ballard a pass on his 1st draft. People on this forum always say that, so technically Ballard has only had 2 drafts. People point to Hooker and that he was more picked to fit Paganos system. Listen to the clip below from Ballard regarding Hooker.  Ballard picked him because he thought he would b elite in any system.  Well he is far from that. The Hooker pick is on Ballard. The misses are adding up as each year passes.

https://www.colts.com/video/chris-ballard-discusses-drafting-malik-hooker-18788933

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14 hours ago, DougDew said:

Hooker was never a man-cover safety, but he was thought to have the "traits" to develop into one. 

 

I think what you're talking about is covering the single high zone.  Its still a zone.  But playing lower towards the LOS and turning and running with a receiver in a zone is not really his thing, and that's how I would think of a cover safety in a zone scheme....IMO.


by coverage safety I’m speaking specifically as a zone coverage, not man coverage. So let me rephrase that he is the best Zone coverage safety that we have. 

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3 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I will go one step further.  I think even if u did have a pass rush, it is a bad D.  They use under sized players across the board. When I look at Baltimore, I am so envious.  Year after year they replenish their D. They draft tough players, we just men who look good in shorts.  Indy hasn't had a dominate D  before Manning played.  It is kind of disheartening.  When I heard we were going back to the zone scheme, I cringed. I love Reich as a head coach, however, I feel he is being handicapped by Ballard in terms of this defensive style.

 

The defense can be really good, but you have to get a lot of the right players which can be difficult. The next 2 years will cement what I think we have in Ballard. 

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if we played man more often as say the Pats and schemed up pass rushing schemes..and or know when to use ZONE  we are struggling understanding what to do playing zone so why not play the easiest coverage to understand “MAN” Stick to your man that’s so simple for younger inexperienced players than zone if you wanna use that as an excuse 

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8 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I disagree totally with u giving a Ballard a pass on his 1st draft. People on this forum always say that, so technically Ballard has only had 2 drafts. People point to Hooker and that he was more picked to fit Paganos system. Listen to the clip below from Ballard regarding Hooker.  Ballard picked him because he thought he would b elite in any system.  Well he is far from that. The Hooker pick is on Ballard. The misses are adding up as each year passes.

https://www.colts.com/video/chris-ballard-discusses-drafting-malik-hooker-18788933

Sorry that is the way it came across.  I didn't give him a pass.  I know he liked Hooker as a prospect and not as a safety for Pagano's D.  My point was that by not firing Pagano, it prevented the Colts from moving forward.

As far as the comment about misses are adding up as each year passes... um well yeah, no GM is going to hit on every pick, no GM is going to hit on every high draft pick.  So the longer a GM remains in the NFL the more his misses are going to add up.  Just like the longer a QB plays the more interceptions he will have... doesn't mean he's a bad QB.

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