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With the 13th pick in 2020 NFL Draft (merge)


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1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

If we traded our 1st for Carr then Gruden would have picks 12 and 13 to move up and get their guy.  QB is the most important position and we would have ours without losing years in developing a rookie that might or might not work out.  We would still have picks 34 and 44 and so on and FA.  I would call a trade like that a bold move that would excite the fans and the team and would make us immediate contenders.   

i think it would take a first and then some to get him.  hard to say they dont really need to move him that badly

 

i would be fine with that too

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7 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

Don't think Tua's going to translate into the pros, TBH.  I don't even think he'll wind up entering the draft this year, anyway.  And I don't see Herbert as a sure fire upgrade to Brissett.   

 

Only concern I have about Tua is his hip. Herbert on the other hand is my pick and he's way better then Brisett. He can move around in the pocket, is accurate, and his arm might not be as big, but he can atleast hit his deep balls.

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I am against giving up high draft capital for an average QB at best, and Carr is the definition of average.  The Colts would be much better off acquiring a cast-off like Tannehill for nothing.  This year's list might include the likes of Mariota, Dalton, Manning, Rivers, Foles etc...  The difference between Carr and Dalton is not the 34th pick, let alone the 13th pick.

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1 hour ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

We have a window of a few years I think.  I honestly doubt the rookie would start next year unless JB gets hurt.  

 

Still you have to pull the trigger on someone because doing nothing will not get us there.  At the same time I really don't see anyone available in FA or for trade getting us there either.  

So build a better team for next year's qb class.   We ain't getting Burrow, far too risky to get Tua, so that leaves only Herbert. Is he worth the 13th pick with his accuracy issues?

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I don't have the source link, but I just saw a rumor that Castanzo could retire (not sure if it's just speculator or if there's any merit to it). That could completely change how we look at pick 13. At that point, LT could be the highest priority.

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11 minutes ago, Clem-Dog said:

I am against giving up high draft capital for an average QB at best, and Carr is the definition of average.  The Colts would be much better off acquiring a cast-off like Tannehill for nothing.  This year's list might include the likes of Mariota, Dalton, Manning, Rivers, Foles etc...  The difference between Carr and Dalton is not the 34th pick, let alone the 13th pick.

I wouldn't mind Dalton.  He throws some picks at poor times, but he's never been the cause of the Bengals issues, IMO.

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32 minutes ago, Shive said:

I don't have the source link, but I just saw a rumor that Castanzo could retire (not sure if it's just speculator or if there's any merit to it). That could completely change how we look at pick 13. At that point, LT could be the highest priority.

He’s been playing his best football the past 2 years. I would pray and hope that’s just a stupid rumor. If he actually does, this team is becoming cursed with early retirements lol. 

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13 hours ago, DougDew said:

I could be wrong, but I don't recall a QB that is thought to have elite potential ever fall to 13.  I know Lamar did, but he fell because no other team thought he was elite.  Same with Mahomes.  

 

For us to get an elite QB at 13, Ballard would have to see something other GMs do not.  I like him as a GM, but I don't think he's that smart to see something that another GM won't take ahead of him.

Aaron Rodgers fell, but that had more to do with attitude/character concerns... 

 

I listened to a mock draft podcast today and it's astounding how many teams need QBs before us. It's very possible 4 QBs get picked before us(thus we probably need to trade up to get whoever we want). They gave us Love at 13 and Eason went 14 to Tampa Bay... that's 5 in the top 15. 

 

Like other posts here have pointed out, there are a ton of QB hungry teams and you have to guard against not only the ones that are drafting before us, but you have to guard against ones drafting behind us who might jump us because they know we are in the market for QB. 

 

It's going to be an interesting draft for sure. I'm trying to figure out good spots for trade ups. 

 

Detroit at 3 is probably going to be the most willing one to trade back. Not sure if they want to trade back to 13, but yeah. We probably will need to give up a future 1st for that one but it also means we will have our pick of the litter past Burrow. 

 

The Cardinals at 8 is another one we might target. A third or the later second might do the job for this one... 

 

If we want to jump the Raiders(if they move on from Carr), the Jets might be a good target at 11. We seem to have good connections with their FO and we've been making tons of trades with them so this one is realistic too and I doubt it takes a ton(3d or 4th?). 

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5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Agreed.  We are in no mans land for picking a QB in the first round, IMO.  Won't be able to trade up for a truly elite guy, the second tier QBs would be a reach at 13, and if their true value is the low first round (if we trade up into the low first) or early second round, then they will probably not be good enough to start right away.

 

That means JB plays again next year.

 

If fans want an immediate upgrade to JB, which may be something Irsay/Ballard will consider since the fans are so turned off by JB, I'd think they'd want to get Derrick Carr or Andy Dalton then draft the young QB to sit behind them for a couple of years.

 

I agree about being in no man's land for picking a QB with where we're slotted.

 

I honestly don't know that Dalton is a big enough improvement over Brissett to warrant signing him.  I think Carr could  be a major improvement, but again, not sure the FO is going to want to give big $ to Carr when we've got Jacoby under a decent salary next year and would also have a fairly big chunk of cash invested in a young guy (assuming we draft a QB in rd 1 or 2).  Though, I guess that's the nice thing about having the cap space Ballard's got set up.

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

Aaron Rodgers fell, but that had more to do with attitude/character concerns... 

 

I listened to a mock draft podcast today and it's astounding how many teams need QBs before us. It's very possible 4 QBs get picked before us(thus we probably need to trade up to get whoever we want). They gave us Love at 13 and Eason went 14 to Tampa Bay... that's 5 in the top 15. 

 

Like other posts here have pointed out, there are a ton of QB hungry teams and you have to guard against not only the ones that are drafting before us, but you have to guard against ones drafting behind us who might jump us because they know we are in the market for QB. 

 

It's going to be an interesting draft for sure. I'm trying to figure out good spots for trade ups. 

 

Detroit at 3 is probably going to be the most willing one to trade back. Not sure if they want to trade back to 13, but yeah. We probably will need to give up a future 1st for that one but it also means we will have our pick of the litter past Burrow. 

 

The Cardinals at 8 is another one we might target. A third or the later second might do the job for this one... 

 

If we want to jump the Raiders(if they move on from Carr), the Jets might be a good target at 11. We seem to have good connections with their FO and we've been making tons of trades with them so this one is realistic too and I doubt it takes a ton(3d or 4th?). 

 

I disagree that those trade ups would be that cheap.  When it's a QB that's on the line there are going to be other people bidding for it.  

 

There-in I think is something I worry about with Ballard.  Ballard has never traded up in the first round before and seems to like to have a lot of day 2 picks, which he would almost certainly have to give up to move up.  

 

Would Ballard make that splash move to get his QB?  He's never been big on splash moves.  

 

 

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14 minutes ago, horseshoecrabs said:

We could also draft for needs other than a QB, Roll with Brissett one more year, save some cap space, and go all in for Trevor Lawrence in next year's draft if we crash & burn. 

 

We don't have a team that is going to crash and burn hard enough for Lawrence.  

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1 minute ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I disagree that those trade ups would be that cheap.  When it's a QB that's on the line there are going to be other people bidding for it.  

 

There-in I think is something I worry about with Ballard.  Ballard has never traded up in the first round before and seems to like to have a lot of day 2 picks, which he would almost certainly have to give up to move up.  

 

Would Ballard make that splash move to get his QB?  He's never been big on splash moves.  

 

 

You might be right.

 

Buffalo traded up from 12 to 7 and added 53 and 56

Arizona traded up from 15 to 10 and added 78 and 152 for Rosen. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

You might be right.

 

Buffalo traded up from 12 to 7 and added 53 and 56

Arizona traded up from 15 to 10 and added 78 and 152 for Rosen. 

 

 

 

And when the Jets traded down from 3 to 6 we charged them 3 2nd round picks for it.  

 

The only good news is that there are a lot of teams ahead of us that just finished up their first years with their rookies and are *probably* not going to give up on them so quickly.  Miami and Cincy will almost certainly draft a QB.  A couple others with vets that could be in the market for a QB because of the age of their vet but probably arn't going to do that. 

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30 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I disagree that those trade ups would be that cheap.  When it's a QB that's on the line there are going to be other people bidding for it.  

 

There-in I think is something I worry about with Ballard.  Ballard has never traded up in the first round before and seems to like to have a lot of day 2 picks, which he would almost certainly have to give up to move up.  

 

Would Ballard make that splash move to get his QB?  He's never been big on splash moves.  

 

 

That's because he never had to make a splash move.  He had his QB in Luck.  He's in a different world now.  All options are on the table I would say.

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21 minutes ago, horseshoecrabs said:

I'm sure you are right, but in this year's draft and FA we should, address more attainable upgrades to our roster by not reaching early for a QB.  

 

The problem is that I don't see much success going that route.  A lot of teams seem hang around mediocrity for a long time by not forcing the issue and getting a QB.  I fear that's where the Colts will be.  

 

I would favor aggressiveness here.  I feel like we're a QB away from being contenders.  The vet route never seems to work out.  (Cousins, Foles, etc).  So I tend to be more supportive of pushing our chips to the center and getting someone in the draft.  

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1 hour ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

I agree about being in no man's land for picking a QB with where we're slotted.

 

I honestly don't know that Dalton is a big enough improvement over Brissett to warrant signing him.  I think Carr could  be a major improvement, but again, not sure the FO is going to want to give big $ to Carr when we've got Jacoby under a decent salary next year and would also have a fairly big chunk of cash invested in a young guy (assuming we draft a QB in rd 1 or 2).  Though, I guess that's the nice thing about having the cap space Ballard's got set up.

I think the problem with JB is him not hitting the guys he's throwing at.  Holding the ball long, not seeing open receivers is a different issue that I'm not prepared to pin solely on him.

 

But hitting the open receiver a QB is throwing at is something that should be expected at the NFL level, and QBs like Dalton or even Case Keenum can do that.  They throw picks because they try to do other things or don't see defenders, but that might be able to be managed by correct play calling by Reich.

 

Carr is a significant upgrade over all of them, IMO.

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6 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

The problem is that I don't see much success going that route.  A lot of teams seem hang around mediocrity for a long time by not forcing the issue and getting a QB.  I fear that's where the Colts will be.  

 

I would favor aggressiveness here.  I feel like we're a QB away from being contenders.  The vet route never seems to work out.  (Cousins, Foles, etc).  So I tend to be more supportive of pushing our chips to the center and getting someone in the draft.  

I agree I think we are a QB away from being a contender.  That's why I would trade for Carr if he becomes available.  He is younger than Luck and his contract is very affordable.  He has all the tools to be successful with the Colts.  He has labored on a bad team for years.  He would make us an instant contender again.  If we draft a QB we are looking at years before we are contenders again if he pans out.  If we don't get Carr then drafting a QB and hoping for the best is all that's left for me. 

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47 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think the problem with JB is him not hitting the guys he's throwing at.  Holding the ball long, not seeing open receivers is a different issue that I'm not prepared to pin solely on him.

 

But hitting the open receiver a QB is throwing at is something that should be expected at the NFL level, and QBs like Dalton or even Case Keenum can do that.  They throw picks because they try to do other things or don't see defenders, but that might be able to be managed by correct play calling by Reich.

 

Carr is a significant upgrade over all of them, IMO.

 

Agreed on Carr being significantly better than most of the other available FAs right now.  

 

Also agree that a QB in the NFL should be able to hit an open target.  I'm just looking through some stats now and Jacoby obviously has a better connection with some targets than others:-

- TY caught 66.2% of balls thrown his way,

- Hines caught 75.9% of balls thrown his way,

- Pascal caught 56.9% of balls thrown his way,

- Doyle caught 59.7% of balls thrown his way,

- Ebron 59.6% of balls thrown his way,

- Campbell caught 75% of balls thrown his way,

- Mack caught 82.4% of balls thrown his way,

- Rogers caught 57.1% of balls thrown his way,

- Johnson caught 51.5% of balls thrown his way... etc., etc., etc..

 

I didn't break this down between Jacoby and Hoyer, but Jacoby had a 60.8% completion rate to Hoyer's 53.8% completion rate for a total rate of 59.8% combined.

 

Anyway, it's pretty obvious that certain players are catching higher percentages of balls thrown there way (TY at 2/3, Hines at >3/4, Campbell at 3/4, Mack over 80% compare to Rogers and Pascal at 57%, etc.).  Granted, most of the balls Hines and Mack are catching are short dump offs, but it's still pretty clear Brissett is doing a better job hitting certain targets than others.  Not saying it's all on the ones catching the ball, but there's a reason why TY is a perennial pro-bowler and Pascal, Rogers and Johnson all came into the league as undrafted free agents.

 

Heck, coming into the season we thought our WRs were #1 - TY (missed 6 games), #2 Funchess (missed 15.5 games), #3 Campbell (missed 9+ games), with Ebron being our top receiving TE (missed 5+ games).  

 

Not totally giving Jacoby a pass, but it'd be interesting to see if his numbers improve if he had 2 legit WRs to help TY (assuming TY healthy) and a legit #1 receiving TE all year.  My bet would be they would.

 

I know a lot of folks say they think Reich held the play calls back due to Jacoby.  I don't disagree entirely (for sure, I think Luck would've allowed us to run more dynamic plays).  However, there was a good stretch of the year where Jacoby literally didn't have a guy that was good enough to be drafted into the NFL on the active roster as a WR or TE.  Not for nothing, but outside of the elite 4-5 QBs in the league, there are very few QBs who are going to be putting up very good numbers given that type of talent surrounding them.  It is very obvious that TY's catching a higher percent of balls thrown his way than other WRs outside of Campbell (some of that is surely due to TY being a better WR, but some of that is probably also due to Jacoby trusting a bigger window around TY and having faith in TY being in the spot where Jacoby puts the ball).

 

  

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Much of the catch % difference can be attributed to the length of the throws. Campbell along with Hines and Mack were short throws hoping for YAC. TY typically gets more separation than the other wideouts.

 

JB doesn't pas the eye test on accuracy by missing open receivers. Accuracy and touch are real issues with JB.

 

 

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9 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

The only QB worth trading up for is Burrow.  That's not happening 

 

I agree with you - but fans will not accept Brissett as their starting QB for another season. And they're aren't many - if any - options in the free agent market.

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4 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Agreed on Carr being significantly better than most of the other available FAs right now.  

 

Also agree that a QB in the NFL should be able to hit an open target.  I'm just looking through some stats now and Jacoby obviously has a better connection with some targets than others:-

- TY caught 66.2% of balls thrown his way,

- Hines caught 75.9% of balls thrown his way,

- Pascal caught 56.9% of balls thrown his way,

- Doyle caught 59.7% of balls thrown his way,

- Ebron 59.6% of balls thrown his way,

- Campbell caught 75% of balls thrown his way,

- Mack caught 82.4% of balls thrown his way,

- Rogers caught 57.1% of balls thrown his way,

- Johnson caught 51.5% of balls thrown his way... etc., etc., etc..

 

I didn't break this down between Jacoby and Hoyer, but Jacoby had a 60.8% completion rate to Hoyer's 53.8% completion rate for a total rate of 59.8% combined.

 

Anyway, it's pretty obvious that certain players are catching higher percentages of balls thrown there way (TY at 2/3, Hines at >3/4, Campbell at 3/4, Mack over 80% compare to Rogers and Pascal at 57%, etc.).  Granted, most of the balls Hines and Mack are catching are short dump offs, but it's still pretty clear Brissett is doing a better job hitting certain targets than others.  Not saying it's all on the ones catching the ball, but there's a reason why TY is a perennial pro-bowler and Pascal, Rogers and Johnson all came into the league as undrafted free agents.

 

Heck, coming into the season we thought our WRs were #1 - TY (missed 6 games), #2 Funchess (missed 15.5 games), #3 Campbell (missed 9+ games), with Ebron being our top receiving TE (missed 5+ games).  

 

Not totally giving Jacoby a pass, but it'd be interesting to see if his numbers improve if he had 2 legit WRs to help TY (assuming TY healthy) and a legit #1 receiving TE all year.  My bet would be they would.

 

I know a lot of folks say they think Reich held the play calls back due to Jacoby.  I don't disagree entirely (for sure, I think Luck would've allowed us to run more dynamic plays).  However, there was a good stretch of the year where Jacoby literally didn't have a guy that was good enough to be drafted into the NFL on the active roster as a WR or TE.  Not for nothing, but outside of the elite 4-5 QBs in the league, there are very few QBs who are going to be putting up very good numbers given that type of talent surrounding them.  It is very obvious that TY's catching a higher percent of balls thrown his way than other WRs outside of Campbell (some of that is surely due to TY being a better WR, but some of that is probably also due to Jacoby trusting a bigger window around TY and having faith in TY being in the spot where Jacoby puts the ball).

 

  

I'll give you two advanced stats to chew on. JB's receiver separation for the year was rated 5th, yet he was rated 26th in accuracy. In other words, even with "questionable" talent, his pass catching group still was 5th in the league in getting open, yet he was near the bottom in accuracy. I'd guess this is partly due to teams not respecting the pass.

 

I'd say that catch % between the guys are a product of a few things. Routes and level of progression probably more than "talent". TY has made some incredible adjustments on very bad balls though. 

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2 hours ago, MTC said:

 

I agree with you - but fans will not accept Brissett as their starting QB for another season. And they're aren't many - if any - options in the free agent market.

 

I find it odd that Kelly isn't a fan consideration, all of a sudden.

 

If you take his off field stuff out of the equation, he'd stack up favorably to most of the QBs coming out this year. 

 

The whole Kelly topic is very odd from many standpoints. 

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3 hours ago, buccolts said:

 

I find it odd that Kelly isn't a fan consideration, all of a sudden.

 

If you take his off field stuff out of the equation, he'd stack up favorably to most of the QBs coming out this year. 

 

The whole Kelly topic is very odd from many standpoints. 

maybe people gave up on that since the team never gave him a shot even after elimination? who know honestly lol

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You really don't need to trade up for a quality QB, someone will still be available at the 13th pick, whether it be Love, Eason, Fromm, just to name a few.  Now if you trade for a certain blue chipper, you may be able to convince the Redskins to trade with you since we have their 2nd round, give them that plus additional pick or player....It's common knowledge we don't want to bead a dead Colt by attacking JB, since we hope he's not going to get another snap in 2020.

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If we end up drafting a QB in the 1st round, he will not be the answer for 2020, but would need to be someone that can learn next season behind the starting QB and be prepared for 2021.

 

We have so many other needs that can be addressed in the 1st round.  We need WR, TE and maybe a LT so our QB will have a weapon other than Marlon Mack and an aging T.Y.

 

Our defense is porous in the Cover 2 and without a pass rush and an explosive offense to get us leads, it gets eaten up each week.

 

The foundation is being built, but we're still a year or two away and need to be healthier to compete.  Youth and injuries hurt us this season.

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1 hour ago, NannyMcafee said:

I dont understand the urge people are getting to get anyone who is better than JB for the sake that hes somewhat better. If you want SBs we need someone quite a bit better than current JB imo. 

 

You're not wrong, it's just not easy.

Those guys aren't available every year, and when they are you gotta be in position to get them.

 

Otherwise, you're trusting your instincts to get the guy who can develop, and that you can develop them.

 

It's a crap shoot.

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The chances of us ever being in a position to get the top one or two QB is small . We don’t need that honestly. SF has JImmy G who was a second round pick and they are a SB favorite. We are spoiled because we got very lucky to have two generational QB for 20 years. We need a very good QB. That’s it. Plus you never know who is going to turn into a star. Why was Trabisky drafted before Mahomes and Watson. Just because we can’t  get the top one or two doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take a QB with the 13th pick.

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