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Deano's Offseason - Christmas version


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Its Christmas morning, 

 

I'm thankful for all the good Lord has supplied me this year......

 

The offseason is coming quickly.......

 

A possible outcome over the next 6 months

 

Step 1

 

Offer 2 fourth round picks to Oakland (Las Vegas) for Derek Carr

Throw in a 5th, if the 2 forth round picks dont cut it

 

Logic - We look to be drafting around 15th-18th  

Mid first round and later QBs taken are historically a risk.

 

Probably 50/50, or worse

 

I dont believe that we are in reach of the 2 blue chip QBs (Tua and Burrow)

 

I LIKE Love, but he is a high risk, high reward sort of player that the Colts

cant afford to miss with

 

I think the weed thing is overblown, but if I am getting ready to get a big payday, and I KNOW that I am going to be tested

I can just NOT DO IT

 

Its not a character issue, but a stupidity issue........  This is a red flag to me. 

 

Also...... He will need one to two years to develop....... IF he makes it   

 

Carr is still young, can throw the deep ball as needed, and is completing 71% of his passes

 

He also has a good quick release.

 

He has improved his completion percentage the last 3 years

 

The risk with Carr, I believe is VERY low. He isnt a  Tier 1 QB, but he can take this 8-8 team, with a good OL, to the next step.

 

He is Truly a Top 15 QB, and can take an 8-8 team into the playoffs

 

With him, and luck in drafting as well as a FA or two....... this team... in 2020, CAN make a run in the playoffs

 

I would cut Hoyer ten minutes after the season is up. I would make JB and Swag compete for back up. 

 

Cut the loser of this competetion

 

If he is still around at 5th round, take Gordon from WSU to compete at QB

 

 

Step 2 

 

For the first time...... PAY THE MONEY.... For Amari Cooper at WR

 

He has experience with Carr, and stretches the field. 

 

Next year, with Cooper, TY, and Parris Campbell, We will have very good WR crew.......

 

Dont give up on Campbell, he was never injured at Ohio State, and started camp last year as a guy who couldnt be covered.

 

If we can get some health, at the WR position, defenses will no longer be able to jam the box against our run...

 

We can again become a balanced offense

 

Step 3

 

As the Wallet is STILL Full of Money..... Make a second splash..... Get Chris Jones........ This guy is EXACTLY what the Colts need in the interior of this defense.  To work properly, this defensive NEEDS penetration from the interior of the DL.

 

Step 4, 5, 6

 

Draft the BEST OT, DL, TE that is on the board with the first round pick, and 2, 3

 

We need a TE for this offense that can catch the dang ball.........   and block a little bit

 

We need additional DT (even with Chris Jones) to rotate in.  Turay is coming along Banagu is coming along at DE

 

We need an OT that can play RT day one, and be depth for LT.   Glowinski is the weak link on this team IMHO.  

Smith is a mauler, that would be best suited to be at RG. He can be a decent RT, but a pro bowl RG.

 

This team does not have to wait another 2-3 years to get better (If we brought in a rookie QB) 

 

We can be better.... NEXT year.... Much better

 

Merry Christmas folks......  give me your thoughts on my mindless ramblings :)

 

 

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13 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Its Christmas morning, 

 

I'm thankful for all the good Lord has supplied me this year......

 

The offseason is coming quickly.......

 

A possible outcome over the next 6 months

 

Step 1

 

Offer 2 fourth round picks to Oakland (Las Vegas) for Derek Carr

Throw in a 5th, if the 2 forth round picks dont cut it

 

Logic - We look to be drafting around 15th-18th  

Mid first round and later QBs taken are historically a risk.

 

Probably 50/50, or worse

 

I dont believe that we are in reach of the 2 blue chip QBs (Tua and Burrow)

 

I LIKE Love, but he is a high risk, high reward sort of player that the Colts

cant afford to miss with

 

I think the weed thing is overblown, but if I am getting ready to get a big payday, and I KNOW that I am going to be tested

I can just NOT DO IT

 

Its not a character issue, but a stupidity issue........  This is a red flag to me. 

 

Also...... He will need one to two years to develop....... IF he makes it   

 

Carr is still young, can throw the deep ball as needed, and is completing 71% of his passes

 

He also has a good quick release.

 

He has improved his completion percentage the last 3 years

 

The risk with Carr, I believe is VERY low. He isnt a  Tier 1 QB, but he can take this 8-8 team, with a good OL, to the next step.

 

He is Truly a Top 15 QB, and can take an 8-8 team into the playoffs

 

With him, and luck in drafting as well as a FA or two....... this team... in 2020, CAN make a run in the playoffs

 

I would cut Hoyer ten minutes after the season is up. I would make JB and Swag compete for back up. 

 

Cut the loser of this competetion

 

If he is still around at 5th round, take Gordon from WSU to compete at QB

 

 

Step 2 

 

For the first time...... PAY THE MONEY.... For Amari Cooper at WR

 

He has experience with Carr, and stretches the field. 

 

Next year, with Cooper, TY, and Parris Campbell, We will have very good WR crew.......

 

Dont give up on Campbell, he was never injured at Ohio State, and started camp last year as a guy who couldnt be covered.

 

If we can get some health, at the WR position, defenses will no longer be able to jam the box against our run...

 

We can again become a balanced offense

 

Step 3

 

As the Wallet is STILL Full of Money..... Make a second splash..... Get Chris Jones........ This guy is EXACTLY what the Colts need in the interior of this defense.  To work properly, this defensive NEEDS penetration from the interior of the DL.

 

Step 4, 5, 6

 

Draft the BEST OT, DL, TE that is on the board with the first round pick

 

We need a TE for this offense that can catch the dang ball.........   and block a little bit

 

We need additional DT (even with Chris Jones) to rotate in.  Turay is coming along Banagu is coming along at DE

 

We need an OT that can play RT day one, and be depth for LT.   Glowinski is the weak link on this team IMHO.  

Smith is a mauler, that would be best suited to be at RG. He can be a decent RT, but a pro bowl RG.

 

This team does not have to wait another 2-3 years to get better (If we brought in a rookie QB) 

 

We can be better.... NEXT year.... Much better

 

Merry Christmas folks......  give me your thoughts on my mindless ramblings :)

 

 

All very good idea's id take Carr over Brissett everyday of the week.

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I thoroughly enjoyed this post, very well thought out!! I will say that I’m not so sure that Carr will move for just a pair of 4ths, we’d have to look at more likely a 2nd rounder at least, but it’s possible. Otherwise, the whole thought process is great to me! Can’t wait to see more of these from you and others come the offseason!! Happy Holidays!!

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12 minutes ago, WarGhost21 said:

I thoroughly enjoyed this post, very well thought out!! I will say that I’m not so sure that Carr will move for just a pair of 4ths, we’d have to look at more likely a 2nd rounder at least, but it’s possible. Otherwise, the whole thought process is great to me! Can’t wait to see more of these from you and others come the offseason!! Happy Holidays!!

You may be right, ...... 

 

But I would wait a bit to see if he gets cut outright, then take a swing 30 days before draft

 

I would still be happy with a 3rd this year and 4th next year to get Carr.....  I dont see people dangling a 2nd round pick for him..... But who knows

 

Tannehill was traded for a 4th and a 7th

 

(They had to send a 6th round pick with him to make the deal)

 

Carr is better than Tannehill, and Two 4ths (or a 3rd) is much better

 

We will see if they trade him

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Carr seems like a cheap alternative to JB, but won't be such a big upgrade, that you would sacrifice a 2nd rounder. Probably.... 

If he's there for a third at maximum, i would be ok with it. 

Like the idea of Gordon late in the draft. 

For the case we don't take a qb via free agency and CB isn't in love with one of the QB's in this year's draft, I start thinking over trading back. 

Maybe a team without a first rd pick like Chicago(need a qb?) would give us their first next year to swap picks this year. That would bring us in a good position to draft a qb in 2020.

For FA, we should seriously pursue Armstead and Byron Jones! They would instantly upgrade 2 positions of need imo. 

And by the way, I'm completely onboard to draft a OT high this year. Could really make our OLine the best in the League.

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I'm with you on getting Carr.  It probably will take a higher pick but I think he would be worth it. He would make us an instant contender again.  Need to do it before FA.  Getting Carr would probably guarantee us getting Cooper if he hits FA and a few other guys as well.  That would be one heck of a way to start the offseason and the lead up to the draft. 

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17 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I'm with you on getting Carr.  It probably will take a higher pick but I think he would be worth it. He would make us an instant contender again.  Need to do it before FA.  Getting Carr would probably guarantee us getting Cooper if he hits FA and a few other guys as well.  That would be one heck of a way to start the offseason and the lead up to the draft. 

I wouldn’t take Cooper. He’ll want a big payday and not worth the effort or money with a generational WR draft class. Look at Cooper’s receiving yards per game the last 2 years and tell me he’s worth it.

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I could roll with Carr, because he’s a huge upgrade over Jacoby.  71% completion percentage with no clear #1WR is impressive to me. 

However, I don’t think he would come cheap in a trade, if available. There are a lot of teams in need of a QB, Carr is worth more than 3s and 4s. 
 

 

 

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First, Merry Christmas! Second - some nice ideas. Third... not many of them are realistic. There is close to zero shot you can get Carr for late round picks IMO and I think both Amari and Chris Jones get either franchise tagged or get a deal with their current teams. 

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I think Carr would be one if the very few current starters that could fit the bill to make a winning team for 2020. (That would be within reasonable trade value)

 

The rumors have Carr being traded... (But rumors are more wrong than right)

 

I would also consider one of the 2nds as the trading pieces if they are willing

 

 

I live here in Dallas and the belief is that they wont keep both Dak and Cooper

 

(You usually keep the QB vs a reciever)

 

 

 

It will be an interesting off season

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Vexed said:

I wouldn’t take Cooper. He’ll want a big payday and not worth the effort or money with a generational WR draft class. Look at Cooper’s receiving yards per game the last 2 years and tell me he’s worth it.

The big secret in Texas......  :)

 

Dak isnt accurate.......  

 

 

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1 hour ago, MPStack said:

I could roll with Carr, because he’s a huge upgrade over Jacoby.  71% completion percentage with no clear #1WR is impressive to me. 

However, I don’t think he would come cheap in a trade, if available. There are a lot of teams in need of a QB, Carr is worth more than 3s and 4s. 
 

 

 

The question is...... what is he worth?

 

I dont see us (or anyone else) parting with a 1st

 

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36 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

The question is...... what is he worth?

 

I dont see us (or anyone else) parting with a 1st

 

He's probably worth a 2nd round pick. Maybe more... but if you get him you have to know his limitations and it seems like Gruden knows them and doesn't want to live with them. 

 

I personally would rather us draft our next QB. For me the question really is a QB on a rookie deal(aka CHEAP contract for 5 years) that the coaching staff can mold in any way they like or an extremely average QB(yes, actually this is what an average'ish starting NFL QB looks like, not Jacoby) on a 25M a year contract(or whatever exactly the numbers are) for the next 3 years?

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18 minutes ago, stitches said:

He's probably worth a 2nd round pick. Maybe more... but if you draft him you have to know his limitations and it seems like Gruden knows them and doesn't want to live with them. 

 

I personally would rather us draft our next QB. For me the question really is a QB on a rookie deal(aka CHEAP contract for 5 years) that the coaching staff can mold in any way they like or an extremely average QB(yes, actually this is what an average'ish starting NFL QB looks like, not Jacoby) on a 25M a year contract(or whatever exactly the numbers are) for the next 3 years?


Yeah, I think it is highly unlikely with Brissett and Hoyer signed for 2020, the Colts trade for a QB already with a hefty contract. 
 

Their best course of action would be to draft a QB. 

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Trade our 1st and one of the second Round picks this year with one of the teams that will go QB this year... for a 2021 first round pick. Then draft for need (other than QB) this year with the other 2nd rounder (WR) and 3rd rounder (DT) this year. Complete this hail mary with the QB who everyone really wants... Trevor Lawrence QB 2021.  Might only have to give up another 1st in 2022. Set for 10-12 years at QB. 

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1 hour ago, FalseStart said:

Trade our 1st and one of the second Round picks this year with one of the teams that will go QB this year... for a 2021 first round pick. Then draft for need (other than QB) this year with the other 2nd rounder (WR) and 3rd rounder (DT) this year. Complete this hail mary with the QB who everyone really wants... Trevor Lawrence QB 2021.  Might only have to give up another 1st in 2022. Set for 10-12 years at QB. 

Wait, what?

 

Trade a first and 2nd this year for a first next year? Any GM who tried to do that should be fired on the spot. A current year's first rounder is worth more than a future first rounder, in terms of value/points. So even a 1 for 1 swap would be a huge loss for the Colts. Throwing in an additional 2nd rounder is the same as throwing that pick in the trash. This scenario would be a massive failure for the Colts.

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

He's probably worth a 2nd round pick. Maybe more... but if you get him you have to know his limitations and it seems like Gruden knows them and doesn't want to live with them. 

 

I personally would rather us draft our next QB. For me the question really is a QB on a rookie deal(aka CHEAP contract for 5 years) that the coaching staff can mold in any way they like or an extremely average QB(yes, actually this is what an average'ish starting NFL QB looks like, not Jacoby) on a 25M a year contract(or whatever exactly the numbers are) for the next 3 years?

The way I see it is Gruden sees his team in a rebuild mode.  I can see him wanting to draft his own QB and building with him.  Carr would immediately make us a playoff contender and his salary was probably close to Lucks which we easily could handle.  His experience and age would be close to Lucks as well.  If we trade for Carr we would probably move JB and save on his contract.  Kelly could possibly take Hoyers role at camp and we could move on from him as well. I see Carr coming to the Colts as a win win for both teams even if it costs us a 2nd round pick.  

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11 hours ago, Hark said:

Great post, Deano. I would much rather go with a proven commodity like Derek Carr when there are. I sure things out there in our draft position.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

 

I was looking for this write up

 

It looks at 57 QBs taken in round one for 22 Years 

 

The "Bust" vs "Good" on this list is subjective

 

If you are drafting in the first round, your EXPECTATION should be to get a QB for the future.

 

A QB that is in top 15, that leads your team to multiple playoff spots

 

Can we agree that a QB that you draft, isnt successful if they are the backup or out of football in 5 years?

 

From my calculations, from this list there were only  21 out of 57 that met this level of expected performance

 

For the math Nerds (Im one) that means that ONLY 37% of First round picks for QB were successful

 

Repeat that with me:

 

Only 37% of QBs drafted in round 1 worked out

 

Making this a worse calculation......  If you are not picking in the top 5, your odds are MUCH less than 37% of hitting on your QB.  

 

Drafting at middle of first round, the history says that your odds are probably at 1 in 4 in getting a QB that meets expectations

 

If history is correct...... Someone like Jordon Love, probably has odds of 25% of hitting

 

At 15, your odds of getting a 10 year high contributing OL are MUCH higher

 

You can always say, what about Tom Brady or Russel Wilson??  Yes they were drafted later, but these are lottery like choices.....

 

If you are planning on getting your playoff bound QB in round 4, you are the type that thinks you can beat the house in Vegas.  

 

ALL the QBs that we could grab at 15, are longer shots........  we PROBABLY will be trying again in 2-3 years........

 

If you end up spending FOUR first round picks to get finally get ONE high result  QB that works out, (25%) you would probably think that you have spent too much

 

Who knows if Carr is even on the market.  I dont.  Just another rumor

 

If he is available, Im spending up to a 2nd round to get him

 

The odds are better...........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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