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EastStreet

PFF Grades Every College QB on Pro Potential

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Nice to see what I would call an honest ranking of Hurts, like, pretty far down the list.

 

As a mid to late pick, I'm intrigued by Sam Ehlinger of Texas.  Don't know much about him, but whenever I've watched the Longhorns play he made plays and looked very good.  He's listed at 6'3, so he's barely tall enough, IMO.

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Cuts from the top 7 ranked guys in 2020

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2. JOE BURROW, LSU TIGERS

Year: Senior

There's no shame in finishing runner-up to the golden boy from Clemson. Burrow doesn't have a big arm like Lawrence, but he has accuracy the likes of which we've never seen. He has been accurate on 72.3% of his passes targeted beyond the line of scrimmage this season. Second place is 65.8%.

Bowl matchup: Oklahoma in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

 

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4. JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON DUCKS

Year: Senior

Arm talent talks when it comes to the NFL, and no one has more of it in college football than Herbert. While he plays in a horizontal, screen-based offense that doesn't suit his talents, he still never quite had a dominant outing against a real defense. That makes him a big projection to the NFL. Herbert, however, could be a top-15 pick in April.

Bowl matchup: Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual

 

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5. JAKE FROMM, GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Year: Junior

Fromm's quick decision-making, risk aversion and command of the Georgia offense all make him a coach's dream. He has made only six turnover-worthy plays this season on 410 dropbacks. The worry, however, is that with his limited arm and the fact that he hails from a run-heavy offense, he is never going to be much more than a game manager at the next level. Fromm could enter the 2020 draft, or he could return to play for the Bulldogs for another season.

Bowl matchup: Baylor in the Allstate Sugar Bowl

 

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6. JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE AGGIES

Year: Junior

Love is going to be a fascinating case study in talent versus on-field results. He ranks top five in both big-time throws (29) and turnover-worthy plays (25). We saw him press far too often in comeback situations, and he leads the nation in second-half turnover-worthy plays. He looked much more comfortable in 2018 before coach Matt Wells left for Texas Tech. There is some projection here because he has thrown 16 interceptions this season. He has already announced that he will enter the 2020 draft.

Bowl matchup: Kent State in the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

 

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9. JACOB EASON, WASHINGTON HUSKIES

Year: Junior

Eason is another prospect you bet on from an arm talent perspective. He has made some throws down the field this season that a good deal of starters in the NFL can't even make. The worry is his pocket presence, as his passing grade went from 92.0 in a clean pocket to 36.4 when under pressure. That's a massive drop. Eason, a transfer from Georgia, could return to school for another season.

Bowl matchup: Boise State in the Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

 

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12. JAMIE NEWMAN, WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

Year: Junior

Newman has seen his draft stock rise as much as any other prospect not named Joe Burrow. After a 75.8 passing grade on 156 dropbacks in 2018, Newman has had a massive breakout, with an 89.7 passing grade this season. His deep-ball touch is outstanding, and he already knows how to throw receivers open in tight coverage. His limitations as a passer were exposed, though, against Clemson when he went 6-of-14 for 41 yards with two picks. Going to an offense that will utilize his rushing ability will be key.

Bowl matchup: Michigan State in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl

 

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14. JALEN HURTS, OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Year: Senior

Hurts offers value with his legs and the ability to protect the football. He has been far too inconsistent down the field, though, and struggles to throw with timing. There's a path to success for him in the NFL in a run-heavy offense, but he's nowhere near the dynamic runner that Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson were coming out in recent years.

Bowl matchup: LSU in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

 

 

 

 

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Looked up some Ehlinger 2019 stats:  3,400 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs.  67% completion rate against Top 25 teams. 6'3, 223 (maybe).   Had a pretty bad game against #14 Baylor (but they have a great dline)

 

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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Looked up some Ehlinger 2019 stats:  3,400 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs.  67% completion rate against Top 25 teams. 6'3, 223 (maybe).   Had a pretty bad game against #14 Baylor (but they have a great dline)

 

He isn't going to be drafted before the 5th round if he decides to come out this year

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56 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

He isn't going to be drafted before the 5th round if he decides to come out this year

WalterFootball's current summary concurs.  He's ranked 15th as a prospect.

 

What's interesting; however, is that he is described as a running QB aka Tim Tebow.  I figured with the passing stats I posted, he'd be a slow white guy Chad Pennington type.  He sounds interesting for next year.

 

12/19/19: In 2019, Ehlinger has completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,114 yards with 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Ehlinger is more of a running quarterback and has drawn some comparisons to Tim Tebow for his style of play. He should definitely return for his senior year to improve before going pro.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Herbert worries me a bit. No dominant outings against good defenses. I'll watch his bowl game for sure.

I've been underwhelmed by him everytime I've watched him. As pointed out though his talents dont mesh well with Oregons offensive schemes so that peaks my interest a bit more to watch the games with a bit more detail.

 

 

 

 

 

My comp is definitely Alex Smith for Jake Fromm. Very smart with the football but not a vertical passer at all. A very good game manager who will make an impressive throw or 2 when you least expect it.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

WalterFootball's current summary concurs.  He's ranked 15th as a prospect.

 

What's interesting; however, is that he is described as a running QB aka Tim Tebow.  I figured with the passing stats I posted, he'd be a slow white guy Chad Pennington type.  He sounds interesting for next year.

 

12/19/19: In 2019, Ehlinger has completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,114 yards with 29 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Ehlinger is more of a running quarterback and has drawn some comparisons to Tim Tebow for his style of play. He should definitely return for his senior year to improve before going pro.

 

 

So you have never actually watched him play?  Another one of your jedi knight analysis?

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37 minutes ago, twfish said:

I've been underwhelmed by him everytime I've watched him. As pointed out though his talents dont mesh well with Oregons offensive schemes so that peaks my interest a bit more to watch the games with a bit more detail.

 

 

 

 

 

My comp is definitely Alex Smith for Jake Fromm. Very smart with the football but not a vertical passer at all. A very good game manager who will make an impressive throw or 2 when you least expect it.

This is what the guy on Colin Cowherd said yesterday. He said that offense doesn’t really show his talents. He mentioned when he is let loose how good he has looked. 

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2 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

So you have never actually watched him play?  Another one of your jedi knight analysis?

Yes.  I said so in my first post.  I said that I didn't see him play much, but.....  That should qualify anything else after that as being judgmental, and a high risk of being incorrect....if you understand the dynamics of a sincere conversation. 

 

He didn't look like Tebow.  Looked more like Jake Fromm with better escapability.  Looked averaged armed and averaged height, where Pennington is sort of the standard bearer for that concept.

 

And with 3,200 yards, 29 TDs, and only 9 INTs, he struck me as a pocket passer who could escape more so than being a running QB like Tebow, since I didn't see Tebow-like plays when I watched him.

 

Why so angry?  

 

Edit:  You do realize that I was giving you credit?  Saying that WalterFootball concurred with what you said.

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I think he resembles Jim Breuer, the guy who played GoatBoy on SNL back in the day.

 

image.thumb.png.e66063abe36c0de912eae6c5a2028cbd.png

 

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17 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Herbert worries me a bit. No dominant outings against good defenses. I'll watch his bowl game for sure.

 

17 hours ago, twfish said:

I've been underwhelmed by him everytime I've watched him. As pointed out though his talents dont mesh well with Oregons offensive schemes so that peaks my interest a bit more to watch the games with a bit more detail.

 

My comp is definitely Alex Smith for Jake Fromm. Very smart with the football but not a vertical passer at all. A very good game manager who will make an impressive throw or 2 when you least expect it.

 

Herebert deserves a little slack. His supporting cast of pass catchers is very down from previous Oregon teams. He had pretty good games vs USC and Washington, which are their two historical big games. He even played well (not lights out) vs Utah and Auburn.

 

Fromm is surrounded by so much talent it's obscene. He's got three 5 star WRs catching balls, and one lesser star (Cager) that is a monster possession threat. That's on top of one of the best OLs and RB groups in the league. He'll be exposed early if he ever gets a start. Had they kept Fields, they'd be playing for a NC this year.

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In general I'm not a fan of QBs whose main selling point is ability to run. You have to be a truly exceptional runner AND you have to be incredibly lucky to have long-term success like that. That's why I see running as more of a nice extra to have and as a proxy for playmaking out of structure, rather than as a selling point in itself. I much prefer players that try to pass once they leave the pocket rather than the ones that look to run. I prefer players that have strong pocket passing game and presence as a foundation of their game and then add to that some run capabilities as a plus that's nice to have, but not necessarily to build their game around it. That's why I'm skeptical of players like Hurts, like Sam Ehlinger, etc .  I don't think they have strong enough passing game for the league. 

 

I think one of the players that's on the edge of being good enough passer to justify drafting him later in the draft because of his running ability is Tyler Huntley. Now, he suffers the same main problem that Burrow suffers from - this was his best season BY A MILE! He made a spectacular jump in passing efficiency and accuracy this year and you have to evaluate how much you trust this year vs his previous play. One thing is for sure though - he makes some of the prettiest NFL type throws you would see out of anyone in this class. He's one of my choices for a day 3 wild card to pick if you miss on your first choice in round 1. 

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1 hour ago, Valpo2004 said:

Why isn't Tua on there?

 

The article said they ranked all 80 starting QBs from the Bowls.  I would assume that since Tua is not going to start a Bowl game, he was not included.

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I’m in favor of grabbing Jamie Newman in the 3rd round. He has good mobility and as noted....
 

...His deep-ball touch is outstanding, and he already knows how to throw receivers open in tight coverage.

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

Why isn't Tua on there?


That isn’t the whole list.  Tua wasn’t listed because he’s not likely to fall to the Colts.    The list is QB’s who might be under consideration by us. 

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


That isn’t the whole list.  Tua wasn’t listed because he’s not likely to fall to the Colts.    The list is QB’s who might be under consideration by us. 

 

I think you might want to re-read the first couple of paragraphs as another poster pointed out, it's referring to starting QB's in bowl games. Since Tua isn't playing, that's why he's not on the list.

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10 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I think you might want to re-read the first couple of paragraphs as another poster pointed out, it's referring to starting QB's in bowl games. Since Tua isn't playing, that's why he's not on the list.


Fair enough. 

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On 12/19/2019 at 4:37 PM, EastStreet said:

Cuts from the top 7 ranked guys in 2020

 

 

 

Reading these write ups and never seeing him throw, this sounds just like a write up describing Jameis Winston imho. I’d pass on that comp as we need a guy who strives on not turning the ball over as opposed to the feast or famine types. Build the team, not the QB being 75% of the team (Manning years) 

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On 12/19/2019 at 7:58 PM, twfish said:

I've been underwhelmed by him everytime I've watched him. As pointed out though his talents dont mesh well with Oregons offensive schemes so that peaks my interest a bit more to watch the games with a bit more detail.

 

 

 

 

 

My comp is definitely Alex Smith for Jake Fromm. Very smart with the football but not a vertical passer at all. A very good game manager who will make an impressive throw or 2 when you least expect it.

I think most could agree that we are fine with a solid game manager who can make some occasional big plays IF we structure the team with a top 5 running game and a top5 defense. I’ll take an Alexis Smith + in the QB position proving we can run it effectively. The WB we get has to be accurate, smart and just capable enough to keep defenses from crowding the box they have since we were in that 5-2 range. Defenses did not fear JB after they had tape. We need a opposing defense that is at least concerned enough in our passing game to play back in the traditional defense and then we need our QB to be able to read where those holes open up. JB hasn’t been able to do that and whether injures and 50% or 100% healthy, that does not alter how you scan and see the field. 

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Watching Sam Howell from North Carolina. He looks real good. And he's a freshman. He might be a good pro in several years. 

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On 12/19/2019 at 2:24 PM, EastStreet said:

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-80-college-football-bowl-quarterbacks-by-pro-potential

 

Some good blurbs, but nothing really surprising. Interesting to see how some of the younger guys are trending this early too.

I would not have ranked Fromm as high, but they did an honest job about his bust potential.

I'll say this. The Washington Redskins approach in drafting RG3 and the other QB (Cousins I believe) seemed kinda crazy at first glance. Looking back, that was the best move in the draft. Considering how the Colts aren't too steady at the QB position, I absolutely wouldn't mind drafting 2 QBs this year ala Washington Redskins a few years back.

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On 12/27/2019 at 8:23 AM, Jdubu said:

Reading these write ups and never seeing him throw, this sounds just like a write up describing Jameis Winston imho. I’d pass on that comp as we need a guy who strives on not turning the ball over as opposed to the feast or famine types. Build the team, not the QB being 75% of the team (Manning years) 

If a guy is forced to carry his team, come from behind, etc., hero ball happens, especially if endorsed by the coach...

 

Doesn't always mean the QB will turn it over on a better team, or with a better coach. Accuracy is far more important in the context of the team he is on.

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On 12/27/2019 at 4:03 PM, Rackeen305 said:

I'll say this. The Washington Redskins approach in drafting RG3 and the other QB (Cousins I believe) seemed kinda crazy at first glance. Looking back, that was the best move in the draft. Considering how the Colts aren't too steady at the QB position, I absolutely wouldn't mind drafting 2 QBs this year ala Washington Redskins a few years back.

I'm good with just one lol. Unless there is a guy in the much later rounds that's a great prospect. Gordon out of Washington State is the only guy out there I think worth taking a shot on in late rounds.

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On 12/20/2019 at 10:16 AM, EastStreet said:

Fromm was surrounded by lots of NFL talent at WR last year, when he threw 30 tds and 6 picks. This year was different. they had a whole new cast of young receivers who didn't play that well. he had one good receiver, dude named Cager, but he went down mid-season and Fromm struggled. 

i still see a little Drew Brees in him, but Brees was in a pass-heavy offense at Purdue. If you go back and look at Fromm last year, he did a better job of striding through his throws. this year he was pretty much winging it off his back foot. I think a good QB coach could fix that.

 

Herebert deserves a little slack. His supporting cast of pass catchers is very down from previous Oregon teams. He had pretty good games vs USC and Washington, which are their two historical big games. He even played well (not lights out) vs Utah and Auburn.

 

Fromm is surrounded by so much talent it's obscene. He's got three 5 star WRs catching balls, and one lesser star (Cager) that is a monster possession threat. That's on top of one of the best OLs and RB groups in the league. He'll be exposed early if he ever gets a start. Had they kept Fields, they'd be playing for a NC this year.

 

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1 hour ago, Gigc said:

Fromm was surrounded by lots of NFL talent at WR last year, when he threw 30 tds and 6 picks. This year was different. they had a whole new cast of young receivers who didn't play that well. he had one good receiver, dude named Cager, but he went down mid-season and Fromm struggled. 

 

i still see a little Drew Brees in him, but Brees was in a pass-heavy offense at Purdue. If you go back and look at Fromm last year, he did a better job of striding through his throws. this year he was pretty much winging it off his back foot. I think a good QB coach could fix that.

Fromm is still surrounded by 5 star kids. They are just younger. Cager is the lowest star WR they have..

 

I see nothing of Brees in Fromm. Out of the top 5 or 6 guys, he's got the lowest physical ceiling. I doubt he adjusts to NFL size and speed well. I watched him play in person several times, and watched the Dawgs just about every week so long as they weren't playing at the same time as ND. Not a fan. Nor are a lot of UGA fans.

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On 12/27/2019 at 4:03 PM, Rackeen305 said:

I'll say this. The Washington Redskins approach in drafting RG3 and the other QB (Cousins I believe) seemed kinda crazy at first glance. Looking back, that was the best move in the draft. Considering how the Colts aren't too steady at the QB position, I absolutely wouldn't mind drafting 2 QBs this year ala Washington Redskins a few years back.

Nice one!.  I just said that in another post.  I agree. 

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Remember how Ballard passed on Sweat because of the heart condition. I find it hard to believe he would draft TUA with the injury history. 

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1 hour ago, CelticColt said:

FWIW it sounds like at least one "expert" isn't all that high on Jordan Love: https://www.pff.com/news/college-buyer-beware-on-utah-state-qb-jordan-love

That article tears him up pretty good, especially the part about choosing to throw to his first read despite a tight window and not being good at throwing to tight windows.

 

Very good at throwing the right pass to an open receiver.

 

I'm still not sure why he would not want to transfer to a better program after his sophomore year.  Other top QBs did it.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I'm still not sure why he would not want to transfer to a better program after his sophomore year.  Other top QBs did it.

 

Fields was granted a waiver to transfer due to the situation he had at Georgia. Burrow and Hurts were graduate transfers. You can't just transfer and expect to play the following year. Had Love transferred, he would have had to sit out a year. They are tightening up the transfer rules even more for next year and beyond.

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