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MPStack

Ballard’s Drafts (2nd Round)

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I wonder what fans here, thoughts are on Ballard’s draft and specifically 2nd Rd picks. 
 

There seems to be a lot of fans here, that for what ever reason always want to trade down and accumulate these 2nd Rounders and some who don’t like the idea of trading picks away (2nd Rd) to move up for a potential blue chipper, QB etc.

 

So I ask what are folks opinions how has CB done with the treasure trove of the players below?

 

2017 Q. Wilson

2018 Leonard, Smith, Turay and Lewis

2019 Rock, Banogu and Campbell

 

I know it’s early still, except for Quincy, but IMO his drafts don’t set the world on fire in Rd 2. Frankly, I’m ready to see Mr. Ballard go the other direction and get his “guy” and not let the draft fall to him for once. 
 

 

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I think 2nd rounders will help you build a good foundation. Maybe you get a couple stars. You can build good depth and create a solid foundation so your organization isnt too top heavy. Eventually though if your team is so good your not getting any high first round picks your going to have to either trade up or spend money in FA to get those stars and playmakers that make a difference. I think the team has a pretty good foundation we are just missing a few players that are difference makers on both sides of the ball. It’s time for Ballard to spend some of that money in FA to get us those players. Your going to miss on some no matter what round you take them in. That’s why ballard likes having a lot of picks. Second rounders are probably going to take longer to develop also. 

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Quality trumps quantity, any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Ballard's thought process is that if you get more darts on the board, a good chance that he hits on a quality player. That is a realistic assessment of how the draft being an inexact science is, on Ballard's part. No matter how good they feel about their draft picks, they know some will end up not working out. We need at least a couple more years to tell what is a hit and what is a miss.

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I think in the "early days" of roster rebuilding, it's easy to upgrade, and additional 2nd rounds help speed the process. It gets harder though as the roster improves, and the more you need 1st round guys.

 

I think it's simply too early to judge 2019's class. I do think Ya-Sin will click next year, and will be very solid for years to come. Banogu, IDK... Campbell, very bad luck but still have high hopes.

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So far my biggest issue with 2nd rd moving up too get Smith. Who has done nothing too small play inside n has done nothing at De. Can't stay on field! He has one more shot 2020 or he is gone secondly like I posted he has money too affect change. He has been quoted as saying I know what we need and ill get them.  We will hold u too that sir.

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6 minutes ago, coltsfan40 said:

So far my biggest issue with 2nd rd moving up too get Smith. Who has done nothing too small play inside n has done nothing at De. Can't stay on field! He has one more shot 2020 or he is gone secondly like I posted he has money too affect change. He has been quoted as saying I know what we need and ill get them.  We will hold u too that sir.

Your talking about Lewis not Smith. Smith is a RT.

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1 hour ago, coltsfan40 said:

Yes forgive me see can't remember Lewis cause done zip :(

True. I wonder if they will give up on him soon. He had some moments his rookie season. Hopefully he can stay healthy next season and improve.

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It’s too early to have a real opinion. But it seems like he has missed early. Wilson was a miss and I’ve said for awhile now that Lewis looks like one too. If he had potential to be an elite level 3-tech we would know by now.

 

On the other hand he knocked it out of the park with Smith and Leonard, And Turray started to come on. We’ll really have to see what Ya-Sin and Campbell turn into long term before we can have a good enough sample size to make a real assessment.

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I give Ballard a pass on Quincy, because he was drafted when the Colts we’re running a different defense.

 

However, I was not a fan of Turay, Lewis and Banogu, being drafted in the 2nd Rd, because they don’t seem like 3 down guys. They could pan out, but Turay’s injury history from college seems to have stayed with him. 
 

Campbell was my favorite WR in last years draft and I hope he shows better next year. 
 

I like CB as the Colts GM, but his drafts aren’t as good as advertised yet. 

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I think that Ballard overall had done a good job of raising the floor of the team, or in other words, he's added good depth.

 

However, the ceiling isn't too high either, thus an average team.

 

He hit on Nelson, who plays guard. You can make an argument that although Nelson may be one of the best guards in the league, how much impact does he have on the game? I think D. Leonard is a difference maker at a position that can impact the game, and was a great pick.

 

All of his other draft picks seem to be fairly average.

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20 hours ago, MPStack said:

I wonder what fans here, thoughts are on Ballard’s draft and specifically 2nd Rd picks. 
 

There seems to be a lot of fans here, that for what ever reason always want to trade down and accumulate these 2nd Rounders and some who don’t like the idea of trading picks away (2nd Rd) to move up for a potential blue chipper, QB etc.

 

So I ask what are folks opinions how has CB done with the treasure trove of the players below?

 

2017 Q. Wilson

2018 Leonard, Smith, Turay and Lewis

2019 Rock, Banogu and Campbell

 

I know it’s early still, except for Quincy, but IMO his drafts don’t set the world on fire in Rd 2. Frankly, I’m ready to see Mr. Ballard go the other direction and get his “guy” and not let the draft fall to him for once. 
 

 

I think you're mixing some points here.  Ballard has not traded down a lot, especially out of the first round.  He did that last year only.

 

If you're criticizing his ability to judge talent in the second round, that is a fair question, especially since he traded UP into the second round for Lewis.

 

He decided to switch to a 43 (unlike Grigson who was told by Irsay to switch to a 34).  It takes years to switch schemes, since almost no player is interchangeable.

 

How are good players like Simon and Anderson playing with their new teams?

 

He either needs more picks, not less, or fill them with more mid level FAs (like Redding, Ricky Jean Francois,  Erik Walden, Toler, Landry, Vontae) to get the defense up and running. (Hunt, Autry, Sheard, Houston)

 

With this history and the changeover, probably two of the worse decisions he has made was to pick a project player  at a marginally impactful position at pick #15 in 2017 INSTEAD of trading down, and to pick a LG with pick #6 INSTEAD of trading down.  Theoretically, we could have 3 more quality players with little material drop off in production along the oline and secondary.

 

I don't mind trading up to get his guy in the first.  Unfortunately, we already had those high picks in two of his three years here.  I'd be more concerned that the trade up into a high first rounder would lead to another waste of valuable capital.

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This upcoming draft is very deep on receivers so wouldn't be shocked if we targeted one receiver in Round 2.  Months ago I liked WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota).  Doesn’t have top speed  but does have amazing talent, body work, and ball control skills.  Excellent YAC.

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4 hours ago, OhioColt said:

This upcoming draft is very deep on receivers so wouldn't be shocked if we targeted one receiver in Round 2.  Months ago I liked WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota).  Doesn’t have top speed  but does have amazing talent, body work, and ball control skills.  Excellent YAC.

I think the top 20 of round 1 has a few very good DTs too.

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On 12/19/2019 at 11:49 AM, Flash7 said:

I think that Ballard overall had done a good job of raising the floor of the team, or in other words, he's added good depth.

 

However, the ceiling isn't too high either, thus an average team.

 

He hit on Nelson, who plays guard. You can make an argument that although Nelson may be one of the best guards in the league, how much impact does he have on the game? I think D. Leonard is a difference maker at a position that can impact the game, and was a great pick.

 

All of his other draft picks seem to be fairly average.

What I think is with Andrew Luck at the helm, coupled with a superstar guard in Nelson, it was an extremely impactful pick. With a QB like Brissett, he is neutralized to make an impact. It actually appears that the entire offense can’t make an impact with JB at the helm. 
 

the proof in my theory is look at Ebron, look at TY and to a degree, look at Doyle. None of these guys made any impact this year with JB but blew up under Luck last season. It’s amazing what a high quality, competent QB will do for a team. Without one, and they don’t have to be a Luck or Peyton level QB, but they do have to be competent, you will look just like what we’ve looked like this season. Terrible mostly. 
 

Ballard better produce at an extremely high level this offseason in his draft and FA plan or his seat is getting hot. I don’t care how personable the guy is, he is going to have to show higher results than a Grigson led team. 

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8 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

What I think is with Andrew Luck at the helm, coupled with a superstar guard in Nelson, it was an extremely impactful pick. 

I agree with this wholly. I think with Grigson's failures to protect Luck, drafting Nelson was a necessity. 

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11 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

What I think is with Andrew Luck at the helm, coupled with a superstar guard in Nelson, it was an extremely impactful pick. With a QB like Brissett, he is neutralized to make an impact. It actually appears that the entire offense can’t make an impact with JB at the helm. 
 

the proof in my theory is look at Ebron, look at TY and to a degree, look at Doyle. None of these guys made any impact this year with JB but blew up under Luck last season. It’s amazing what a high quality, competent QB will do for a team. Without one, and they don’t have to be a Luck or Peyton level QB, but they do have to be competent, you will look just like what we’ve looked like this season. Terrible mostly. 
 

Ballard better produce at an extremely high level this offseason in his draft and FA plan or his seat is getting hot. I don’t care how personable the guy is, he is going to have to show higher results than a Grigson led team. 


Having a stud QB like Luck, really masked a lot of deficiencies on the team. 
 

I still support Ballard 100%, but he’s trending in the wrong direction now. 
 

After three years, I think this will be his most challenging off-season. 

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Just leaving this one here:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-top-10-highest-graded-rookies-through-week-15

 

Highest graded rookies after 15 weeks:

Quote

 

6. LB BOBBY OKEREKE, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Apparently, the Colts know how to scout the linebacker position. Okereke’s 82.8 coverage grade is the highest of any rookie, regardless of position, on defense. One of the longest and most athletic linebackers in the class, Okereke has been exceptional at limiting yards after the catch with only nine of his 30 targets resulting in a first down or a score.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, MPStack said:


Having a stud QB like Luck, really masked a lot of deficiencies on the team. 
 

I still support Ballard 100%, but he’s trending in the wrong direction now. 
 

After three years, I think this will be his most challenging off-season. 

I can certainly agree with this. I think a stuffed turd would have been perceived as 100 times better than what Grigson showed after the 2012 draft and subsequent GM of the year award. CB is a genuinely like able guy and a much better presenter of the message than Grigson was but so far, his drafts have overall netted much more than Grigson accomplished during his time. Grigson got high ticket items in Luck, TY Kelly and perhaps Geathers. CB has picked Leonard and Nelson so far as stars. You could add in Smith and Willis has looked good as well and Mack. The rest so far hasn’t either panned out or been too injured to tell yet. Turay has promise. Hooker has shown promise. Grover and a few others have shown promise but each so far have picked exactly 2 super stars during the GM career. I hope we get a full dose of wow, our guys finally came around in full and CB becomes a legend with his draft picks and FA management. He still has some time to shine. 

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On 12/19/2019 at 11:49 AM, Flash7 said:

I think that Ballard overall had done a good job of raising the floor of the team, or in other words, he's added good depth.

 

However, the ceiling isn't too high either, thus an average team.

 

He hit on Nelson, who plays guard. You can make an argument that although Nelson may be one of the best guards in the league, how much impact does he have on the game? I think D. Leonard is a difference maker at a position that can impact the game, and was a great pick.

 

All of his other draft picks seem to be fairly average.

I agree with you.  When Ballard got here, the cupboard was bare.  Absolutely bare.  We had nothing but TY and a QB whom we thought had a chance to never play again.

 

In that situation, you can go two ways.  You can either try to get a couple/few high impact guys with 1st round picks, but have the rest of your team very thin, or you can trade down, stock up on 2nd round picks, and improve your overall skill and depth of your team while having few high impact players.

 

The Colts went with option B.  Instead of having 3 1sts and 3 2nds, they filled the roster with 2 1st's and 8 2nds.  Lucky for them, two of those picks wound up being all pro's (Nelson and Leonard), and the rest are solid contributors with skills to use.

 

Ballard even hit on a few later picks like Mack (4th round), Walker (6th round), Okereke (3rd round), and Willis (4th round).

 

I think he did the right thing, building out the entire roster rather than focus on just a couple of stellar players.

 

But now, we need a stellar player.  We need to really hit on that 1st round pick in 2020.  Crossing my fingers that we get it right.

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On 12/18/2019 at 1:49 PM, MPStack said:

I wonder what fans here, thoughts are on Ballard’s draft and specifically 2nd Rd picks. 
 

There seems to be a lot of fans here, that for what ever reason always want to trade down and accumulate these 2nd Rounders and some who don’t like the idea of trading picks away (2nd Rd) to move up for a potential blue chipper, QB etc.

 

So I ask what are folks opinions how has CB done with the treasure trove of the players below?

 

2017 Q. Wilson

2018 Leonard, Smith, Turay and Lewis

2019 Rock, Banogu and Campbell

 

I know it’s early still, except for Quincy, but IMO his drafts don’t set the world on fire in Rd 2. Frankly, I’m ready to see Mr. Ballard go the other direction and get his “guy” and not let the draft fall to him for once. 
 

 


I’m surprised at this thread.   It’s not a state secret that drafts are not to be evaluated for three years.   That’s how long you want to give players to figure it all out. 
 

We have one of those in this group of eight.   Wilson.   A huge disappointment.  But, what are you going to do?   He was the right guy at the right spot.   Projected at somewhere between the late first and early second he slid to the mid-second where we wisely grabbed him.   He was the youngest player in the entire draft.  Normally that’s a good thing.  But it hasn’t worked out.

 

Leonard?   Like having an additional first round draft pick.

 

Smith?  I think he’s had a disappointing year, but I think his long term potential remains high.  The question remains, at tackle, ir back inside at guard?  
 

Turay?  The reviews have been good, but he has to stay healthy.  I don’t think that’s a Ballard thing.

 

Lewis?   I’d like to see him when he’s healthy.   Too early to give up.

 

Rock, Benagu and Parris?   All have shown me enough high athletic skill traits to have me excited about their long term future.  None have finished their first year, much less their second or third year. 
 

I remain in the camp that I reached patience.   I think there’s far more upside than downside here.  Far more.

 

Of course, everyone is different and your mileage may vary. 

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40 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yes, I was thinking that Ballard or his people seem to be able to pick LBs and OLs, but seem to struggle with DBs and maybe DLs. 

IMO the samples are way too small to make a judgement and for most of them it's too early to say one way or another.

 

It's also worth calibrating our expectations. For picks in the second-third round the expected success rate is around and under 50% and it drops even more steeply the lower you go into day 3. So anything in the realm of 50% should be good. But yeah, IMO we haven't made enough pick yet to say one way or another.

 

This is the little secret that IMO Ballard has gotten right with his drafting strategy - most GMs in the league will have about the same success rate over the long haul(except for several real bad ones). He said something to that effect in an interview last year I think. That's why it becomes important to increase your chances in other ways - namely - getting more picks while trying to keep the success rate at about the same rate(i.e. late first for 2 seconds). Late firsts and mid seconds don't have great disparity in success rate, so he's gaming the system - he's trading what lets say is a one 55% success picks for 2 x 50% success picks or thereabout. 

 

It's hard to say at what point we will have big enough sample to judge his success as an evaluator of specific positions though. There are so many things that go into it, there are so few picks at specific positions and some of them are out of his control(injuries). You might be 10 years into his tenure and still not be sure if he evaluates CBs or DEs well...  

 

 

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38 minutes ago, stitches said:

IMO the samples are way too small to make a judgement and for most of them it's too early to say one way or another.

 

It's also worth calibrating our expectations. For picks in the second-third round the expected success rate is around and under 50% and it drops even more steeply the lower you go into day 3. So anything in the realm of 50% should be good. But yeah, IMO we haven't made enough pick yet to say one way or another.

 

This is the little secret that IMO Ballard has gotten right with his drafting strategy - most GMs in the league will have about the same success rate over the long haul(except for several real bad ones). He said something to that effect in an interview last year I think. That's why it becomes important to increase your chances in other ways - namely - getting more picks while trying to keep the success rate at about the same rate(i.e. late first for 2 seconds). Late firsts and mid seconds don't have great disparity in success rate, so he's gaming the system - he's trading what lets say is a one 55% success picks for 2 x 50% success picks or thereabout. 

 

It's hard to say at what point we will have big enough sample to judge his success as an evaluator of specific positions though. There are so many things that go into it, there are so few picks at specific positions and some of them are out of his control(injuries). You might be 10 years into his tenure and still not be sure if he evaluates CBs or DEs well...  

 

 

Agreed. 

 

One thing I would point out is Okerke, or use him as an example.  When players make an impact...or get PT and do something with it as a rookie, I would say it is pretty well determined that he will be a good player.  Nelson, Smith, Leonard, Okerke and even Walker did good things very early in their careers.

 

Contrast that with some of the DBs and DLs that have struggled to get on the field, or do much with it.  (personally, I think Ya-Sin will be fine)

 

That doesn't mean busts, but to me there is a difference in those two groups of players.

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On 12/18/2019 at 4:49 PM, MPStack said:

I wonder what fans here, thoughts are on Ballard’s draft and specifically 2nd Rd picks. 
 

There seems to be a lot of fans here, that for what ever reason always want to trade down and accumulate these 2nd Rounders and some who don’t like the idea of trading picks away (2nd Rd) to move up for a potential blue chipper, QB etc.

 

So I ask what are folks opinions how has CB done with the treasure trove of the players below?

 

2017 Q. Wilson

2018 Leonard, Smith, Turay and Lewis

2019 Rock, Banogu and Campbell

 

I know it’s early still, except for Quincy, but IMO his drafts don’t set the world on fire in Rd 2. Frankly, I’m ready to see Mr. Ballard go the other direction and get his “guy” and not let the draft fall to him for once. 
 

 

 

   I think he and his staff must feel very good how Ballard has made decisions using HIS draft board to get his "guys". Lewis isn't looking good so far, but Ballard did trade back into the 2nd to get him.
 Until i hear Pagano say otherwise, i will believe Wilson was who he pounded the table for.
 IMO Ya Sin will never be able to cover fast receivers long enough.
 

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