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Barry Sears

The Final Three Games...What Should Be Done?

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The issue I have at QB is regardless of how locked in they are with JB as the starter, it seems like it'd be a prudent idea to play Kelly to see if he's capable of being the backup (i.e. #2 QB).  Hoyer had a chance and proved he's nothing but an emergency QB.

 

If you don't get Kelly some real PT, how do you know what he can do in a real game?  Apparently, pre-season play is meaningless for evaluation according to a lot of what I've read.  Brissett isn't going to gain any substantive experience and the risk for injury is probably higher than the opportunity for improvement.

 

Otherwise, it looks like he is/was the emergency QB for this season and probably doesn't figure in the plan for the future.  This is entirely possible.  What I've wondered is the reason he's on the roster at all? Did they ever consider playing him or was he just put on the roster as a favor to Jim Kelly to allow Chad to prove he can keep his nose clean?

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

JB's 2020 signing bonus is already guaranteed. That's the only thing. That was locked in Sept of this year. So really there's nothing that will signal "JB is the future" unless the FO comes out and says it.

Irsay payed #12 several millions so knowing Irsay loves this team so much so it only matters in cap space but I see us taking a QB in the early part of the draft

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8 hours ago, csmopar said:

very true, but lets also face it, the QBs coming out this year just don't excite outside of maybe 1-2 of them and there's a TON of QB needy teams well ahead of us. Trading up from 12-17 high enough to get one of them, isn't gonna happen and RARELY ever works out, based on history.

My initial post never mentioned quarterbacks but both of your replies

have been about quarterbacks. Sooooo what is on your Christmas wish

list this offseason csmopar? Jk dude. :thmup:

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6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

And Teddy as well. 

Ohhhh forgot about teddy..... ...good call

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16 hours ago, cbear said:

Give yourself the best chance to win every game. 

 

IMO, that mind set is more important then any byproduct that may come about by doing something else. 

 

Why is finishing at best 8-8 and picking around 18th better than 6-10 and picking say 10th ? Huge difference in draft value of their picks. 

 

What is so valuable about finishing 8-8 ?  49er's were 4-12 last year , didn't hurt them in 2019. Bills were 6-10 ....Bottom line is next year is a whole new year . Colts will start 0-0 and I really don't think going all out and beating the Jags and Panthers will mean anything when that first game is played.

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12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

JB's 2020 signing bonus is already guaranteed. That's the only thing. That was locked in Sept of this year. So really there's nothing that will signal "JB is the future" unless the FO comes out and says it.

 

Incorrect terminology on my part. It's a roster bonus and not a signing bonus. Kevin Bowen had mentioned this on 1070 last week too.

 

https://overthecap.com/player/jacoby-brissett/4804/

 

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On 12/11/2019 at 5:33 PM, coltsva said:

What about drafting a QB? Doesn't that tell JB he isn't the guy, and is just keeping the seat warm for when the new guy is ready?

 

If Kelly starts JB will get over it, and the team will embrace the staff for doing everything possible for this season and the future of the team.

Somebody needs to tell JB that he isn't the guy...because he isn't.

He is just wasting years off the other players' careers.

 

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12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

If they did not like him, they would have booted him when they signed Hoyer. They didn't. 

 

Great point

 

I don't see why you even bother with Chad Kelly, if the kid has no chance, or... you dont want him to really give him a chance on the Colts to play.

 

I could see the logic in bringing him here.... at the time

 

Luck was entrenched as the future starter

 

Brissett was on his last year, and many people felt he was going to leave.....  I was counting (HOPING) that we could get some draft trade value

 

But today........  I dont see that we can count on Brissett to be our starter for the future

 

Slow and poor reads, poor touch, disaster results in the 4th quarter.

 

The defensive coordinators have tape on JB, and he doesnt have the passing skills to play out of it.  They can show stuff late, and JB just sees no one open.... and then throws it away or tries to run it on 3rd and long

 

To me, its in front of the 2020 draft.......  If (WHEN) we lose to NO on Monday, we are officially OUT.....   Our games no longer matter........   Why WOULDNT you try CK out?

 

Its sort of like a preseason game

 

To me...... its a check the box activity.......

 

If CK stinks it up....... you cut him in the offseason, and draft a QB to develop

 

I think there are low odds that CK will be the saviour of the franchise.

 

But if he shines in the last 2 games, you let him compete with JB for the starters role in 2020.

 

If this remote situation happens, that would save us using a first round pick on a QB.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't know why Brissett needs protection from competition from Kelly.

Let's see what Kelly can do in the final 2 games and next year. If he beats out Jacoby for the starting QB then so be it. That's how teams improve at the QB position.

(and we won't have to watch so many short crossing patterns ever again)

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3 hours ago, dodsworth said:

My initial post never mentioned quarterbacks but both of your replies

have been about quarterbacks. Sooooo what is on your Christmas wish

list this offseason csmopar? Jk dude. :thmup:

I honestly don’t know haha. I just know a QB is on a LOT of people’s lists on this forum. Haha

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These guys get paid millions of dollars. Regardless of our record. If your healthy, you will play. I have no clue what some of you think about each day. It’s clueless, weak and cowardly. You don’t tank for players. Not all picks are guaranteed. 

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1 hour ago, ar7 said:

 

Incorrect terminology on my part. It's a roster bonus and not a signing bonus. Kevin Bowen had mentioned this on 1070 last week too.

 

https://overthecap.com/player/jacoby-brissett/4804/

 

 

Bottom line, 7M is already guaranteed, the rest IIRC is game checks and prorated bonuses that are paid along with the game checks. So in other words, there's no date really that locks us into a financial commitment for 2020 over an above the already guaranteed 7M. It's a pretty team-friendly deal.

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3 hours ago, a06cc said:

These guys get paid millions of dollars. Regardless of our record. If your healthy, you will play. I have no clue what some of you think about each day. It’s clueless, weak and cowardly. You don’t tank for players. Not all picks are guaranteed. 

most are projects

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If we lose to the Saints, you might as well let Kelly get some run.  I think we move on from JB anyway.  Frank doesn't truly want him as his QB.  Time to cut bait and get him the QB that he wants.  Might as well give Kelly a shot to see if he's the man.

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5 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

If we lose to the Saints, you might as well let Kelly get some run.  I think we move on from JB anyway.  Frank doesn't truly want him as his QB.  Time to cut bait and get him the QB that he wants.  Might as well give Kelly a shot to see if he's the man.

You don't know what Frank wants in a QB. 

JB will be our starter next season. 

A QB may be drafted but Ballard traded for JB for a reason and he is not going to move on from him without giving him the benefit of the doubt. 

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Chad Kelly needs to play the final 3 games. Houston and Tenn are both 8-5 and will face Sunday, so we are eliminated anyway. Play Kelly and see what you have in him. If we're lucky, he'll look great and we won't have to draft a QB early in the draft next year. Nothing to gain from starting Brissett and Hoyer. Brissett is regressing and Hoyer is who he is. See what you have in Kelly.

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On 12/11/2019 at 9:34 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

I think the fans r really going to b disappointed next year.  I don't think they will draft a qb.  I think they r all in for JB the next 2 years . They will get all their receivers back next year and probably get him another wr or TE  early.  

Another wide or TE! Why? JB would not throw the ball to them unless it was to late! JB is to timid. He's scared to fail. Therefore, we have to have another QB. If we don't, i believe it will be major mistake. Oh, for all of you JB hine kissers, if you don't like threads like this don't read them. I don't care what you dislike! If you can't see the weakness in JB then ....... WOW!

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Go with Brissett against the Saints.  There is still a shot at the playoffs.   Assuming we lose that game, start Kelly the last 2 games.  There is no downside.   It gives the fans what they want.  It gives the coaches and Ballard a look at what Kelly is.  Worst case is that we lose both games and gain draft position.   It's not tanking.   

If Kelly doesn't get some playing time, I think we go into next season with Jacoby as the starter and Hoyer as the back up again.  They signed Hoyer to a 3 year $12 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.  

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On 12/12/2019 at 7:36 AM, csmopar said:

Tanking is for cowards.  And top 15 picks doesn't mean squat.  Its really a crap shoot. Ryan Leaf and RG3 were number 2 picks... Tom Brady-199th. Drew Brees was taken in the 2nd round and he's gonna be HoF as well. 

There is some truth to that, but odds are that you do better with the pick in the top 15.  The player you want is more likely to be there at 13 rather than 18.  

Good players can be taken anywhere, but your odds improve with the better pick position.  

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On 12/12/2019 at 5:36 AM, csmopar said:

Tanking is for cowards.  And top 15 picks doesn't mean squat.  Its really a crap shoot. Ryan Leaf and RG3 were number 2 picks... Tom Brady-199th. Drew Brees was taken in the 2nd round and he's gonna be HoF as well. 

This is an absolute lie, and you should know better. Tanking is a great strategy. It brought the Astros and Cubs world series, it brought the Colts Andrew Luck. The higher the pick, the more choices you have to either A.) pick a higher rated player on your board, or B.) trade down and accumulate more picks (like the Quenton Nelson trade). Top 15 picks are better than top 20 picks. Look at Ryan Kelly and Malik Hooker. The draft is not a crap shoot, it's about strategy and research, and every GM would rather have 5 extra players available to them at 15 than 20. This is not a debate, and Ballard would agree with me.

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24 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is an absolute lie, and you should know better. Tanking is a great strategy. It brought the Astros and Cubs world series, it brought the Colts Andrew Luck. The higher the pick, the more choices you have to either A.) pick a higher rated player on your board, or B.) trade down and accumulate more picks (like the Quenton Nelson trade). Top 15 picks are better than top 20 picks. Look at Ryan Kelly and Malik Hooker. The draft is not a crap shoot, it's about strategy and research, and every GM would rather have 5 extra players available to them at 15 than 20. This is not a debate, and Ballard would agree with me.

To back that up:

Hall of Famers

Taken in 1st round - 107

Taken in 2nd round - 35

Taken in 3rd round - 22

 

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3 hours ago, Myles said:

\  There is no downside.   

 

 

THIS......

 

There is NO DOWNSIDE to letting CK play the last 2 games

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3 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is an absolute lie, and you should know better. Tanking is a great strategy. It brought the Astros and Cubs world series, it brought the Colts Andrew Luck. The higher the pick, the more choices you have to either A.) pick a higher rated player on your board, or B.) trade down and accumulate more picks (like the Quenton Nelson trade). Top 15 picks are better than top 20 picks. Look at Ryan Kelly and Malik Hooker. The draft is not a crap shoot, it's about strategy and research, and every GM would rather have 5 extra players available to them at 15 than 20. This is not a debate, and Ballard would agree with me.

This is a bit harsh, and the front office would NEVER tell the fans....... we are TANKING..... but it DOES happen

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

This is a bit harsh, and the front office would NEVER tell the fans....... we are TANKING..... but it DOES happen

 

 

Yep. Just strikes a nerve when people bash tanking. When you are eliminated, it is the correct strategy. I agree though, Ballard would never admit it, nor should he.

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

This is a bit harsh, and the front office would NEVER tell the fans....... we are TANKING..... but it DOES happen

 

 

Yep and it is the correct move many times.   

Players don't tank.  Tanking can and is done by putting back up players in.   Holding out starters longer than needed for an injury.  If I was Irsay, Ballard and Reich and wanted lose the final 2 games:  If after the Saints game the Colts are eliminated, I sit TY for the remaining 2 games.  Maybe do the same with any other injured starters.  I start Kelly.   He would have less chance to win since this would be his first 2 games.  

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On 12/11/2019 at 5:19 PM, Flash7 said:

3. Chad Kelly plays poorly, showing why he was #3 on the depth chart. The coaches must now revert back to JB, after they have shown that they are willing to replace him. The other players now know that they don't have a true #1 leader at the QB position and question the coaches decision.

Everyone is replaceable and everyone knows it, or should know it. If Jacoby does not think he's replaceable then he is fooling himself. The other players on the team should question a coach who is unwilling to see which quarterback gives their team the best chance to win.

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11 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is an absolute lie, and you should know better. Tanking is a great strategy. It brought the Astros and Cubs world series, it brought the Colts Andrew Luck. The higher the pick, the more choices you have to either A.) pick a higher rated player on your board, or B.) trade down and accumulate more picks (like the Quenton Nelson trade). Top 15 picks are better than top 20 picks. Look at Ryan Kelly and Malik Hooker. The draft is not a crap shoot, it's about strategy and research, and every GM would rather have 5 extra players available to them at 15 than 20. This is not a debate, and Ballard would agree with me.

If the colts tanked,   why was Caldwell and Polian fired?

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11 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is an absolute lie, and you should know better. Tanking is a great strategy. It brought the Astros and Cubs world series, it brought the Colts Andrew Luck. The higher the pick, the more choices you have to either A.) pick a higher rated player on your board, or B.) trade down and accumulate more picks (like the Quenton Nelson trade). Top 15 picks are better than top 20 picks. Look at Ryan Kelly and Malik Hooker. The draft is not a crap shoot, it's about strategy and research, and every GM would rather have 5 extra players available to them at 15 than 20. This is not a debate, and Ballard would agree with me.

Jared....    you’re one of the very few posters here who think the Colts tanked for Luck.   The vast majority here don’t think this. 

 

Personally, I don’t have anything against it,  but it’s not a guarantee of future success.   Does it work?   Plenty of times...   but it’s also come up short any number of times...  
 

Don’t get your hopes up with Ballard.  I don’t think he’s hard wired to tank a season.   He’s looking to build.   I think that 4-win season in ‘17 is about the worst he’d be willing to put up with.  Doubt he’d be willing to deliberately tank and do that again. 

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On 12/11/2019 at 5:19 PM, Flash7 said:

Fair or not, hypocritical or not, QBs are always treated differently.

 

If Chad Kelly does play this year, 3 things can happen.

 

1. Chad Kelly plays so amazingly well that there is NO question that he is the starting QB the following year. (How likely is this to happen? 10% chance? 20%?)

 

2. Chad Kelly plays fairly well. The Colts have a QB controversy. JB and Chad Kelly fight for the #1 QB position during the preseason, but in all likelihood, neither would be the answer at the QB position if Chad Kelley isn't clearly better than JB.

 

3. Chad Kelly plays poorly, showing why he was #3 on the depth chart. The coaches must now revert back to JB, after they have shown that they are willing to replace him. The other players now know that they don't have a true #1 leader at the QB position and question the coaches decision.

 

Unless the coaches completely believe in Chad Kelly, it's my opinion, that he will not play.

The coachs actually have a great alibi. They can always sit jacoby because of his knee. 

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36 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Jared....    you’re one of the very few posters here who think the Colts tanked for Luck.   The vast majority here don’t think this. 

 

Personally, I don’t have anything against it,  but it’s not a guarantee of future success.   Does it work?   Plenty of times...   but it’s also come up short any number of times...  
 

Don’t get your hopes up with Ballard.  I don’t think he’s hard wired to tank a season.   He’s looking to build.   I think that 4-win season in ‘17 is about the worst he’d be willing to put up with.  Doubt he’d be willing to deliberately tank and do that again. 

He also thinks the league is rigged

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1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

He also thinks the league is rigged


Thanks for the reminder!   I had almost forgotten that instant classic from way back when!        :thmup:

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2 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

If the colts tanked,   why was Caldwell and Polian fired?

Long story short, the Colts didn't tank and were a busted run against the Jags from not getting Luck. It doesn't really matter anymore and it arguably never really did, but damn it, I find the "Colts tanked for Luck" narrative annoying. I watched those games that year for some reason. Kerry Collins was washed up. Curtis Painter got an honest shot that might have gone a game or two longer than it should have, but it is what it is and Dan Orlovsky was like a glass of water after Painter. If you're tanking, you play Painter. Anyway, whatever. I should let this one go..

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14 hours ago, Myles said:

Go with Brissett against the Saints.  There is still a shot at the playoffs.   Assuming we lose that game, start Kelly the last 2 games.  There is no downside.   It gives the fans what they want.  It gives the coaches and Ballard a look at what Kelly is.  Worst case is that we lose both games and gain draft position.   It's not tanking.   

If Kelly doesn't get some playing time, I think we go into next season with Jacoby as the starter and Hoyer as the back up again.  They signed Hoyer to a 3 year $12 million contract with $9 million guaranteed.  

 

Probably one of the worst signings in Colts history.

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On 12/11/2019 at 5:19 PM, Flash7 said:

 

3. Chad Kelly plays poorly, showing why he was #3 on the depth chart. The coaches must now revert back to JB, after they have shown that they are willing to replace him. The other players now know that they don't have a true #1 leader at the QB position and question the coaches decision.

Oh, the players already know that, regardless of who starts jn The present, past, future, they are well aware JB isn't a true #1 leader at the qb going forward.  Stop gap? Sure... If there's an endgame.

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On 12/11/2019 at 9:34 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

I think the fans r really going to b disappointed next year.  I don't think they will draft a qb.  I think they r all in for JB the next 2 years . They will get all their receivers back next year and probably get him another wr or TE  early.  

Oh, that's what I fear, for sure.  But even if that's the case.... What's the long term solution?  Who starts at QB in whatever city they have to play in in 2030?  Jk.... slightly.... That damage won't be undone soon, or easily.... Surrounding talent won't fix his issues, just raise the floor a game or two.

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Chad Kelly is not the answer. I repeat, Chad Kelly is not the answer. Remember he played all preseason and still didn’t earn a roster spot.  He is literally our 4th string QB this year.  I have no idea why people think he deserves any playing time. He couldn’t win the job in Denver and backdoored his way onto the roster bc of injury even after our franchise QB quit.  The guy is a developmental QB we hope could be the backup or trade bait one year.  

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6 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Oh, that's what I fear, for sure.  But even if that's the case.... What's the long term solution?  Who starts at QB in whatever city they have to play in in 2030?  Jk.... slightly.... That damage won't be undone soon, or easily.... Surrounding talent won't fix his issues, just raise the floor a game or two.

Look no further than the Titans. I believe that is the kind of team Reich  envisioned for the future.  The problem is that Tennessee got their 1st.  

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15 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

If the colts tanked,   why was Caldwell and Polian fired?


yes. I remember how close they came to winning the last game against the Jags. The Colts did not tank but were just bad. 

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6 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Chad Kelly is not the answer. I repeat, Chad Kelly is not the answer. Remember he played all preseason and still didn’t earn a roster spot.  He is literally our 4th string QB this year.  I have no idea why people think he deserves any playing time. He couldn’t win the job in Denver and backdoored his way onto the roster bc of injury even after our franchise QB quit.  The guy is a developmental QB we hope could be the backup or trade bait one year.  

He won the backup job on the 53 in Denver. He lost that due to maturity issues, not because of play or lack thereof. There's a reason we kept him around and made him one of the highest paid PS players. 

 

And yes, he played all preseason and overtook Walker whom we had last year. So he's not been 4th.. He's been 3rd all year. 

 

I can flip this... outside of bad behavior (which is the crux of his situation), he's done nothing to suggest he's a bad QB..... 

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