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2019 Brissett Through 8 Games: Stats and Trends

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A few more tidbits from one of the advanced stats sites.

 

Money (Clutch) Throws - 21st

Supporting cast efficiency - 13th

Interceptable passes - 23rd

Danger plays - 22nd

Pass attempt distance - 29th

Deep ball attempts - 29th

Protection rate - 12th

Rush yards - 13th

RZ completion % - 26th

Pressured Completion % - 20th

Clean pocket completions % - 16th

Accuracy rating - 19th

Dropped passes - 24th

YAC per completion - 5.8

 

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I think the drop in the receivers production is a very telling stat. If you pair it with his ATTT, it really is a clear indicator that the passing offense has taken a clear step back with Jacoby at center. Having Mack running the ball as well as he has definitely helped mask some of that. You have to wonder if that’s a sustainable winning formula though. 

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6 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I think the drop in the receivers production is a very telling stat. If you pair it with his ATTT, it really is a clear indicator that the passing offense has taken a clear step back with Jacoby at center. Having Mack running the ball as well as he has definitely helped mask some of that. You have to wonder if that’s a sustainable winning formula though. 

I mean the injury bug proof pretty quickly that it's kind of a fragile ecosystem LOL.

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32 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I think the drop in the receivers production is a very telling stat. If you pair it with his ATTT, it really is a clear indicator that the passing offense has taken a clear step back with Jacoby at center. Having Mack running the ball as well as he has definitely helped mask some of that. You have to wonder if that’s a sustainable winning formula though. 

IMO, it's not sustainable without a much improved D....

The regression of the receiver production in terms of YPG may be because of training wheels being applied, but we should see that change hopefully in the final 6 games. We should definitely see more passing tomorrow. 

 

On Pascal's gains.... X was a revolving door last year with Grant then Pascal then Inman then Pascal/Inman. I think we would have seen more production from Pascal last year had his targets been more consistent. With Funch potentially coming back, I sure hope his production doesn't go in the toilet. I'd love to see a lot of looks with both Pascal and Funch on the field at the same time in possession type downs at X and slot (either player playing either position).

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29 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I mean the injury bug proof pretty quickly that it's kind of a fragile ecosystem LOL.

The injuries though are primarily to the new adds, not the returning core. TY has been out for 2 games with Brissett, and was out IIRC 2.5 games with Luck, and gimpy (low snap counts) in two other games. So pretty even with TY for both years thus far.

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I said a while back, the Colts will be just fine as I believe this man is an upgrade over Andrew Luck.  He has heart and wants to play.  Andy proved what I thought, no heart, would step aside.

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5 hours ago, P'Son said:

I said a while back, the Colts will be just fine as I believe this man is an upgrade over Andrew Luck.  He has heart and wants to play.  Andy proved what I thought, no heart, would step aside.

He can have all the heart he wants, but at the end of the day, what matters is his performance. 

 

About the OP, it's nice to see all the stats in one post. If JB could just turn up a notch in terms of YPA, we would've a very nice offense, even with this group of WR.

 

As a matter of curiosity, why didn't you used the PIT and MIA stats?

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I wish there was a stare down the receiver stat so we could compare percentages from game to game/ season to season. 

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17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Just sticking to the objective facts and numerical trends/averages in the OP, but feel free to provide subjective narrative and context. I only ask that you read the OP entirely and not pearl clutch. If you are of those that say "stats don't matter", please do the rest of us who like stats a favor, and just ignore the thread. If I miss any key areas, or make any errors, let me know and I'll try to track them down and/or correct. I've also done comparative looks for anyone who was receiving in multiple years 2017-2019.

 

Thank you for researching and posting all of this data. Its very information and honestly fun to read - thank you!

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9 hours ago, P'Son said:

I said a while back, the Colts will be just fine as I believe this man is an upgrade over Andrew Luck.  He has heart and wants to play.  Andy proved what I thought, no heart, would step aside.

In terms of heart and leadership, I absolutely agree JB>AL. I wouldn't say AL had no heart, I just think JB has more.

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3 hours ago, DiogoZ said:

He can have all the heart he wants, but at the end of the day, what matters is his performance. 

 

About the OP, it's nice to see all the stats in one post. If JB could just turn up a notch in terms of YPA, we would've a very nice offense, even with this group of WR.

 

As a matter of curiosity, why didn't you used the PIT and MIA stats?

JB didn't play vs Miami and Pitt (not that much vs Pitt at least).

 

In terms of areas for improvement, I think the biggest without a doubt is progressions. That will take improving both vision and processing (reading Ds and quickening decisions). If he does that, YPA will go up, and TTT will go down. Honestly, all of his stats should improve. I'd sacrifice a little more INTs for more downfield success. 

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53 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

I wish there was a stare down the receiver stat so we could compare percentages from game to game/ season to season. 

stare down, and progression grade lol.. 

we can all see the stare downs, but even some argue about it. i do think that while he's inconsistent, we have seen a little improvement.

24 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

 

Thank you for researching and posting all of this data. Its very information and honestly fun to read - thank you!

You're welcome. I planned on looking through it all after his 8th game, and figured I should list it out. Might come in useful to in some of the debates lol... Will probably do a compare to the last 6 games at the end of the season to look at improvement.

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15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

The injuries though are primarily to the new adds, not the returning core. TY has been out for 2 games with Brissett, and was out IIRC 2.5 games with Luck, and gimpy (low snap counts) in two other games. So pretty even with TY for both years thus far.

Do we know if TY is back yet?  If he's still not confirmed to play, it could keep going.  But he could miss the rest of the season, I don't think it would really change any of our opinions on him, no matter which side you land on.

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5 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Do we know if TY is back yet?  If he's still not confirmed to play, it could keep going.  But he could miss the rest of the season, I don't think it would really change any of our opinions on him, no matter which side you land on.

I think he's a game time decision. Nothing said publicly so far. Maybe he'll come out of the tunnel suited up with a clown mask on :-).

 

I'd really like to have TY back, but I think the passing game will be fine without him to be honest. Houston is one of the worst passing Ds to begin with, and they have arguably their best DB out (SS Reid), two other starters (hamstring and back) game time decisions, and 2 other depth DBs out.

 

Our TEs should be on fire tonight with Reid out. We could really exploit them deep too if JB is willing to go there. 

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think he's a game time decision. Nothing said publicly so far. Maybe he'll come out of the tunnel suited up with a clown mask on :-).

 

I'd really like to have TY back, but I think the passing game will be fine without him to be honest. Houston is one of the worst passing Ds to begin with, and they have arguably their best DB out (SS Reid), two other starters (hamstring and back) game time decisions, and 2 other depth DBs out.

 

Our TEs should be on fire tonight with Reid out. We could really exploit them deep too if JB is willing to go there. 

Yeah I think we've been alright without him (as long as JB is playing obviously).  But TY is the biggest Texans killer of them all.  I don't want him to risk further injury for one game, even if it is important.  It'd just be the best medicine for a team already without their best RB.

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28 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think he's a game time decision. Nothing said publicly so far. Maybe he'll come out of the tunnel suited up with a clown mask on :-).

 

I'd really like to have TY back, but I think the passing game will be fine without him to be honest. Houston is one of the worst passing Ds to begin with, and they have arguably their best DB out (SS Reid), two other starters (hamstring and back) game time decisions, and 2 other depth DBs out.

 

Our TEs should be on fire tonight with Reid out. We could really exploit them deep too if JB is willing to go there. 

And just imagine, with all those injuries on their secondaries, if TY plays. God, a massacre would insue.

 

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28 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Yeah I think we've been alright without him (as long as JB is playing obviously).  But TY is the biggest Texans killer of them all.  I don't want him to risk further injury for one game, even if it is important.  It'd just be the best medicine for a team already without their best RB.

TY was pretty ineffective in the first game this year. Pascal led the team. Houston's MO is to try and blanket the WR1, and threw everything but the kitchen sink at him that game. I was very happy JB started going Pacal after way too many forced and unsuccessful attempts to TY. 

 

If TY is out, not sure who they'll treat as #1. Probably the detached TE, or maybe Pascal. I can see a lot of two TE sets.

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Yards-wise, we can't be impressed with Brissett. However, injuries have killed this team at WR, and if fully healthy, Brissett is an above average QB IMO. He still has a solid TD/INT ratio, and he doing well with the balanced run/pass game. Hopefully Hilton/ Funchess/ Campbell come back soon and we can see what he can really do.

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I appreciate the time you put into putting this together.

 

Good stuff

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8 minutes ago, DiogoZ said:

And just imagine, with all those injuries on their secondaries, if TY plays. God, a massacre would insue.

Maybe. I think they'd still line up their best CB vs him plus give him help (double). If Roby is out, that would really hurt though. Regardless, JB need to be ready to go to whomever isn't doubled, and do it all night long. We should have #2, #3, plus TEs and Hines plenty open.

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

TY was pretty ineffective in the first game this year. Pascal led the team. Houston's MO is to try and blanket the WR1, and threw everything but the kitchen sink at him that game. I was very happy JB started going Pacal after way too many forced and unsuccessful attempts to TY. 

 

If TY is out, not sure who they'll treat as #1. Probably the detached TE, or maybe Pascal. I can see a lot of two TE sets.

Yeah that's what we've been doing while TY is out (2 TE sets).  We do it a lot as it is.  But it seems we've been doing it more now that TY has been out.

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2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Yeah that's what we've been doing while TY is out (2 TE sets).  We do it a lot as it is.  But it seems we've been doing it more now that TY has been out.

42% last week. I think that might go up to 55ish% with Reid out.

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Just saw a factoid on JB.

13.9% Bad Throw Rate (excludes spikes and throw aways).

 

He's 5th lowest (best) in the NFL.

 

This should not be confused with on target, quality, or money throws.

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20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Just saw a factoid on JB.

13.9% Bad Throw Rate (excludes spikes and throw aways).

 

He's 5th lowest (best) in the NFL.

 

This should not be confused with on target, quality, or money throws.

Maybe a little to do with "on target".    I do notice that he doesn't have many of those "not even close" throws.   Granted, he doesn't throw that deep usually either.  

 

As far as TE talk from above, did anyone expect to see more of Mo Alie-Cox this season?  He didn't have many catches last season, but for a rookie I thought he showed allot of promise.  

 

image.png.b5a11f370c1be01482b50c66c83be6b2.png

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3 minutes ago, Myles said:

Maybe a little to do with "on target".    I do notice that he doesn't have many of those "not even close" throws.   Granted, he doesn't throw that deep usually either.  

 

As far as TE talk from above, did anyone expect to see more of Mo Alie-Cox this season?  He didn't have many catches last season, but for a rookie I thought he showed allot of promise.  

 

image.png.b5a11f370c1be01482b50c66c83be6b2.png

JB has been ultra conservative. And it reflects positively in the bad throw % and INT%. It translates poorly however in YPG, air yards, ypa, big throws, etc.. I'd trade a few more INTs on the year for more yards and improvement in key areas. 

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

JB has been ultra conservative. And it reflects positively in the bad throw % and INT%. It translates poorly however in YPG, air yards, ypa, big throws, etc.. I'd trade a few more INTs on the year for more yards and improvement in key areas. 

I don't know.  That is a tough one.   I say that because JB has had the team in each game.  Even drove down the field for a couple game winning drives and potential (Adan V's misses).  

Not sure if we would be that close if he had thrown more INT's even if he had 60 more yards.  

 

Just a tough call.   Mostly because I'm not sure that can be Brissetts game.   

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On 11/20/2019 at 2:32 PM, EastStreet said:

Just sticking to the objective facts and numerical trends/averages in the OP, but feel free to provide subjective narrative and context. I only ask that you read the OP entirely and not pearl clutch. If you are of those that say "stats don't matter", please do the rest of us who like stats a favor, and just ignore the thread. If I miss any key areas, or make any errors, let me know and I'll try to track them down and/or correct. I've also done comparative looks for anyone who was receiving in multiple years 2017-2019.

 

Before diving into JB's stats, I'll first take a look at the opposing team's passing Ds so that we have a bit of context (both good and bad).

Excluding PIT and MIA games.

 

To keep things simple and consistent, I'll use the following tiers for grading.

1-5 Elite

6-12 Good

13-20 Average

21-27 Bad

28-32 Awful 

 

Opponents Passing D (ranks)

Teams - LAC / TEN / ATL / OAK / KC / HOU / DEN / JAX / AVER

PasYPG - 4     /   22   / 26   /   27   / 12  /   29   /   5     /   8    /  17 

Cmpl% - 7     /   14   / 28   /   17   / 8    /   24   /   23  /   10   /  16

INT%   -  10   /   13   / 24  /    15   / 9   /   30   /   27   /   12   /  18

YPPAtt -  4     /   20   / 27  /   29   / 13  /  21   /   6     /    16   /  17

Press% - 19   /   26   / 22  /   28   /  29 /  32   /   12   /    4     /   22

 

JB's Performance per game (raw not ranked) and average with ranking

Teams -      LAC / TEN / ATL / OAK /  KC   / HOU / DEN / JAX  / AVER

QBR    -      62.4 / 32.2 / 78.7 / 35.9  / 35.2  / 68.6  / 43.1 /  51.2 / 51.7 (16th)

PasYrd-     190  / 146  / 310 /  265   / 151   / 326   / 202  /  148 / 199.7 (27th)

Cmpl%-     77.8 / 60.7 / 75.7/ 52.2  / 62.1   / 66.7  / 60.0 / 62.5 / 64.6 (16th)

YPPAtt-      7.0   / 5.2   / 8.4  / 5.8    /  5.2    /  8.4   / 8.1   /  6.2   / 6.9 (22nd)

INT PPA       0    / 4%  /  0    /  2%   /  3%   /   0      /  0     /   4%  / 1.5% (12th)

TD PPA        7% /11% / 5% /  7%   /   0      / 10%  /  0     /    4% / 5.8% (Tie 6/7th)

TimToThr 2.33 /3.01 /2.61 / 2.82  / 3.32  / 2.95  / 3.05  / 3.07 / 2.89 (27th)

AirYrdAv   4.4  / 2.4  / 4.9  / 5.8    /  2.2    / 5.7    / 7.2    / 7.9   /  4.8  (27th)

 

Grading / Trends

QBR (Average) - highly inconsistent in terms of trend. Good against some good passing days (LAC), bad against bad Ds.

 

YardsPerGame (Bad) - I don't put much stock in game to game, but the overall average speaks for itself. Perhaps some of the blame goes to play calling and training wheels, but we should see a trend up in the later part of the season if that's the case. I'd really like to see 250+ against one of the top 15 D (YPG).

 

Completion % (Average) - Pretty consistent over the last 4 games, but trending down over the first 3. 

 

Yards per pass attempt (Bad) - very inconsistent here as well. As with QBR, good against good passing Ds, bad against bad Ds. Part goes to scheme, and game plan, but needs to improve without a doubt in the last 5 games. 

 

INT per pass attempt (Good) - I know some like to tout INT/TD ratio, and that's fine, but INT/attempt is the more accurate ratio. Good, but bordering on average. I'm very happy with this stat so long as he stays on the high side of average. 

 

TD per pass attempt (Good) - I know this has a lot to do with game plan and play calling in the redzone, but this is absolutely a great stat for JB. He is trending down a bit in the last 4 games, but he can right the ship with a good game vs Houston. It shows how good he can be in RZ situations at times. Borderline elite, but needs to show it when his attempts increase between the 20s.

 

Time to throw (Bad) - Trending awful and is truly a headscratcher given his TTT vs LAC in the first game. This is a crucial stat to both scheme (Reich's quick passing O), and OL protection (puts added stress on the OL).

 

Completed air yards average (Bad) - This one is trending up the last two games, but still needs sustained improvement. This is truly a headscratcher given the high TTT. Need more games like the last 2 to keep Ds honest so that they don't congest the shallow/intermediate passing lanes. 

 

Overall - 2/8 Good, 2/8 Average, 4/8 Bad. Some good trends, some bad, still a lot of inconsistencies. This against a very overall average group of passing Ds. 

 

 

Pass catcher comparison / trends

Note 1: Capturing all that had 200 or more yards receiving in 2018

Note 2: We returned 84% of receiving production across WRs, TEs, and RBs in 2019, and 21.3% from 2017 (a healthy Doyle)

Note 3: The top 4 2018 receiving targets + #2 from 2017 returned in 2019

Note 4: Miami and Pitt removed from 2018

 

Hilton (#1 receiving target in 2018)

Stat    / 2017  / 2018  / 2019

YPG   / 60.4   / 90.7   /  60.0

YPC   / 16.9   / 16.7   /  11.3

Cat% / 52.3  / 63.3    / 69.6

Summary - While typically the 1st read, 33% drop in YPG from 18-19 after jumping 50% from 2017. Pretty clear here what changed. 32% drop in YPC from 18-19, while continuing to improve his catch %.

 

Rogers (#3 receiving target in 2018)

Stat    / 2017  / 2018  / 2019

YPG   / 25.8   /  30.3  /  14.25

YPC   / 12.3   /  9.2    /  11.4

Cat% / 62.2   /  73.6  /  56%

Summary - While typically the 3rd or later read (for both Luck and JB), after making a 17% jump in YPG from 2017 to 2018, he takes a 53% drop in 2019. YPC he is up 24% in 2019 but targeted much less. Catch % took a major hit (late read struggle in the seam?)

 

Pascal

Stat    / 2017  / 2018  / 2019

YPG   /   NA   /  16.8  /  32.8

YPC   /   NA   /   9.9    / 16.4

Cat% /   NA   /  58.7  /  59

Summary - used sporadically in 2018 after coming to Indy, and coming on late, he's taken very nice jumps in 2019. 95% in YPG, and 66% in YPC. Best YPC on the team. Was critical in the Houston game with TY getting doubled, and vs OAK when TY was out. Not really an impact vs Jax though.

 

Ebron (#2 receiving target in 2018)

Stat    / 2017* / 2018  / 2019

YPG   / 35.9    / 46.9   /  32.4

YPC   /  10.8   /  11.4  /   13.0

Cat% /   61.6  / 60.0  /  60.6

Summary - Consistent Catch %. After making a 31% jump in YPG from his previous year with Carolina, he is currently 31% lower. He's made a 14% jump in YPC this year.

 

Doyle (#2 receiving target in 2017)

Stat    / 2017  / 2018  / 2019

YPG   /  46.0   / 40.8  /  26.3

YPC   /   8.6    /  9.4   / 10.0

Cat% /  74.1  /  78.8  / 70.0

Summary - Doyle took a little step back with all the injuries in 2018, and took a big step back when healthy of 36% in 2019 (43% drop from his healthy 2017). YPC took a bit increase in both 18 and 19. Catch % has taken a decent step back in 2019.

 

Hines (#4 receiving target in 2018)

Stat    / 2017  / 2018  / 2019

YPG   /    NA  /  26.6  /  23.9

YPC   /    NA  /  6.7    /  7.6

Cat% /   NA   /  77.8  /  83.3

Summary - 10% drop in 2019 YPG while improving YPC by 13%. 7% improvement in catch %.

 

 

Summary

YPGame - Significant drops in the top 3 receiving targets from last year, and small drop from #4. Pascal is the only gainer of substance. 

 

YPCatch - Mixed bag here, but significant drop to the #1 (TY), and nice gain by Pascal.

 

Catch % - Total mixed bag here

 

Overall - the drops to YPG for the top 4 producers in 2018 is pretty telling. We returned a lot of production from last year, and the drop hurts.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

If there's anything more you'd like me to chase down, let me know.

 

Hoping to see improvement across the board in the last 6 games. Houston should be a nice kickoff for JB. Got my popcorn ready for the end stretch. 

I just gave you a LIKE for the effort you put into looking this stuff up :thmup:

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The only stat that matters is WINS.

 

j/k somebody had to do it.  Appreciate your work and combining everything in one place.

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11 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

The only stat that matters is WINS.

 

j/k somebody had to do it.  Appreciate your work and combining everything in one place.

Just Win Baby

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6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I just gave you a LIKE for the effort you put into looking this stuff up :thmup:

Thanks buddy. I think you know all I want to do is win. It takes a devoted fan (or crazy) to do this stuff, and the graphs that @SteelCityColt is putting together.

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6 hours ago, Myles said:

I don't know.  That is a tough one.   I say that because JB has had the team in each game.  Even drove down the field for a couple game winning drives and potential (Adan V's misses).  

Not sure if we would be that close if he had thrown more INT's even if he had 60 more yards.  

 

Just a tough call.   Mostly because I'm not sure that can be Brissetts game.   

No INTs didn't work out for us tonight, even with Williams running for 100 and winning the turnover battle.

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

No INTs didn't work out for us tonight, even with Williams running for 100 and winning the turnover battle.

Blow coverage td and terrible  passing  attack 

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16 hours ago, Stephen said:

Blow coverage td and terrible  passing  attack 

His INT% did get lower though :goodluck: lol

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    • Other than MPstack, I was probably the BIGGEST supporter of JB......   I am highly disappointed, and was hoping for more.   But..... it happens.    Time to find the next QB.    The defensive coordinators have figured out what JB can do, and he doesnt have the downfield accuracy and reads to overcome it........     We will get a VERY stacked box the rest of the way.   We have a developing team that lost a franchise QB at the last second.......     The sky truly is the limit, and my confidence in the front office and head coach is still very high.      
    • I was a big supporter of giving JB a chance to show us. Sadly, I was mistaken.  I thought he'd get much better as the season went along, but even taking into consideration the revolving door at WR, its clear JB hasn't improved much at all since 2017 in the things he does control. Time to find some competition with him.
    • This is my view   I doubt that CK is the answer, but I just want to give the kid a chance.... at this point we have nothing to lose   I was at the game yesterday, and when you see the open WRs and how ugly the passes looked you just sort of know....... JB isnt the answer.   At one point he was 4 of 12.  (If I remember correctly)   I may look at things differently than others. I would have never brought in Hoyer.   To me, you ALWAYS have a young QB that you are developing, that is your backup.   I really dont want someone who isnt able to start and win a game. Hoyer has lost 100% of the games he started ... There is a message there.    I would rather lose with a young QB that might develop into more as a backup than an older career backup who cant win a game, when counted upon.   I was hoping that JB was THAT guy..... someone that could garner draft picks in trade, or actually play when needed.  To me......  AFTER THE SEASON, I would move on from BOTH Hoyer and JB.  Its great that they are leaders, but dang........  They just arent NFL starting QBs.  Why have someone that cant be a starter, and has no future chance to be?   Why have someone on your roster like that? If JB was getting better, I say keep him in.   He is not.       Our vaunted OL cant block 8 man boxes.  We are playing against teams that have horrible pass defenses or are in a situation where 3 of 4 regular starters are out (Houston) and we STILL CANT PASS.               There is no way that the loss is 100% on JB, though.... we didnt tackle well, we didnt do a lot of things well.  When you give up almost FIVE HUNDRED passing yards, you have other problems as well               
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