That's kind of obvious. Luck is an example of that. It's also true that the wrong QB can lose you a lot of games while wasting an improved roster.
And if you spend significant draft capital to draft that QB, then you are going to give them additional years to prove themselves before you're able to pull the plug on a bad decision (QB purgatory). Meanwhile, with the lost draft capital, you may have missed out on top-tier talent in a couple other key positions.
The question is, do any of the QBs available in THIS draft look like long term solutions worthy of #13 or even a trade up? Some think there are and others don't. I think this is the root of most disagreements about this draft.
The fact that there may be much more top-tier QB talent (and even generational talent) in the 2021 draft is something to keep in mind. If the Colts start 2020 the way they ended 2019, there's a good chance they will be a contender for that top talent in 2021. I wouldn't want to trade any of the 2021 picks to move up this year.
Fromm is bigger than Drew Brees at 6'2 220lbs and has just as much arm strength as Peyton had in his prime, before his neck surgeries... he is very accurate, he has won everywhere that he has gone...
This time of year, people fall in love with the "next big thing" based on upside or possible upside with development down the road...they fall in love with having a huge arm etc...and the majority of those guys never pan out, otherwise there would be an abundance of star QBs starting all over the NFL.
Give me the best player available at #13... a top WR, DT or LT...then take Fromm in the 2nd round and be happy to have the guy who could very well end up as the best QB in this draft, anyhow.
Everyone said Luck lacked arm strength...They said Peyton lacked arm strength... They said that RGIII would be better...that Leaf would be better... JaMarcus Russell went #1 because everyone fell in love with his arm...Aaron Rodgers went at the end of round 1...Brees didnt even go in round 1... i think they both ended up better than anyone else in their draft classes.
The reason I'm against getting Carr or Bridgewater or any other similarly skilled player in FA is the following - the QB has outsized impact on the performance of the team. It's not the majority of the team, but it's big enough that you have to put the position in its own category.And because the QB position has such outsized impact, it has the possibility of giving you certain margin of error in the construction of your team. There are 2 ways for a QB to give you margin of error:
-elite QB due to the performance they give you - it wouldn't matter if they are paid, a great QB masks a lot of warts offensively.
-average-ish QB on rookie/small deal - you get functional QB play at small price. They run your team and because they are paid so little they let you use the rest of the money that you would otherwise have to pay a QB in other areas of the team.
The problem of Carr is that he's average and he will run your offence in a functional way, but he's paid a TON and will want to get paid even more once you give up assets for him. In other words he again gives you no margin for error - he's not good enough to give you margin of error play-wise, and he's paid too much to give you margin of error pay-wise. + again, we have to give up more assets to get him away from the Raiders(probably at the very least one of the second round picks).
Similar rationale for other average-ish or lower players like Bridgewater.