Colts rebuild finish is still a couple of years away

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I was thinking that the way this team started at 5-2 we wouldn’t need all our draft picks. Seeing things unfolding on the offensive side of the ball and a few defensive pieces I think we actually do need them all this upcoming draft. We have to address a playmaker or two on offense either through the draft or FA. We need dline help as ours is getting older. And we need oline depth. I think ballard did a good job creating depth now at safety and linebacker. We need to see if speed develops. If tell keeps improving and Rock I think we are in good hands at corner after Desir retires or moves on. But we do need another corner as Wilson is not the future.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do getting this roster where it needs to be. It still might be a couple more years before we can say the rebuild is done.

[Mr.Debonair]

Start with guys who dominate up front like Clowney who many here said wants to much or isn’t worth a lot of money

[coltfaninnewyork]

I think the biggest question is,Jacoby the long term franchise quarterback ? I'm not sure and maybe the colts aren't either .

[krunk]

Funny we never get threads like this until we lose to somebody.  When we are winning we are shoe ins for the playoffs and every other pleasant thing you can think of.  Let us lose a game or two then all of a sudden we are couple years away at this or that! How long we gon keep playing this back and forth type thing?

[Indyfan4life]

7 minutes ago, krunk said:

Funny we never get threads like this until we lose to somebody.  When we are winning we are shoe ins for the playoffs and every other pleasant thing you can think of.  Let us lose a game or two then all of a sudden we are couple years away at this or that! How long we gon keep playing this back and forth type thing?

Honestly, you can’t say you don’t expect it. Losing to Miami, regardless of it being bad offense or kicking issues again. Winning solves everything. Losing brings out all the problems. 

[zibby43]

10 minutes ago, krunk said:

Funny we never get threads like this until we lose to somebody.  When we are winning we are shoe ins for the playoffs and every other pleasant thing you can think of.  Let us lose a game or two then all of a sudden we are couple years away at this or that! How long we gon keep playing this back and forth type thing?

 

That's fair, but here's the thing, I think most of us realized that when the Colts were at 5-2, with the way the Colts had won close, 1-possesion games and lost to teams they had no business losing to (including the Raiders at home), that the Colts probably weren't quite as good as their record indicated.

 

Conversely, when the Colts were 1-5 last year, and then started to blow out the bad teams on their schedule (something that the '19 team is incapable of), I think we realized that the Colts were probably much better than their record indicated.

 

Which brings me to my next point.  Football Outsiders did a "study" where they analyzed every single regular season game from 1995-2004 to see whether teams that built their records on close wins over good teams did better in the postseason than teams that padded their records with big wins over bad teams.

 

They did this evaluation based on counting the numbers of "GUTS" and "STOMPS."

 

STOMP: A win by at least 14 points over a team that will finish the year below .500.
GUT: A win by 1-8 points over a team that will finish the year above .500.

 

The 2003 Patriots are the only team to lead the league in GUT wins and make the Super Bowl.

 

TL;DR: Winning a bunch of one-possession games, particularly against .500 or sub-.500 teams is oftentimes a strong indicator that a team is not an elite postseason team.

 

The Colts are winning some of their one-possession games against .500-level teams, but they're also losing a fair share against sub-.500, which is an even bigger red flag.

 

Full "study" - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2005/fo-fox-guts-and-stomps

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Watching that game tonight it is very clear the colts aren’t even close to contenders. We need more playmakers. Guys like clowney was a wrecking ball tonight. We have so far to go but unless we take a chance on a FA or two that can make a difference not sure how we get there. Those two teams defense was incredible tonight. I hope we get there some day.

[EastStreet]

It will be interesting to see what the front office does...

 

Do they

1) try to build a top 5 D, and top 5 rushing game, to make up for the deficiencies in the passing game (and keep JB)

 

Or

 

2) try to get a top 10ish kind of QB who can energize the O, taking pressure off the running game and D.

 

To the OP and @Chloe6124 . What type of play makers on O are you talking about. We've got two of the better TEs in the league. We've got one of the better WRs in the league. Funch will be back shortly. Honestly, another big play WR likely won't help much. We're not a vertical team, and I doubt that changes. Only a good possession WR would likely succeed in the current O, and possession O is really not "big play maker" O. Even TY is looking quite restrained in this O, and adding another TY like guy doesn't guarantee much.

[Two_pound]

I don't think we need any type of roster rebuild. So far this year we have lost to the raiders, steelers, chargers, and dolphins. Last year after 9 games we had lost to the bengals, jest, eagles, sucriots, and Texans. So even with subpar qb pay this year we are still ahead of last year. One more thing, I just watched the 2nd half and ot of the 49er- seahawk game and I can assure you I'll take our roster over either one of those any day. If Paris Campbell can avoid the injury bug he will be way ahead of d.k.Metcalf or deebo Samuel. I'm not sure how either one of those teams has the record they do, maybe they've played a lot of games against teams that aren't very good.

[EastStreet]

On D, we need DT more than anything. We'll need a true game wrecking DE as well, as Houston is aging, and I don't see any of the young guys developing into a true 3 down monster. 

 

And while we have upgraded LB and DB, they still are far from perfect. Only Leonard and Hooker are top tier right now. I think Rock has the potential to be top tier, but not there. The rest are plain good to average. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It will be interesting to see what the front office does...

 

Do they

1) try to build a top 5 D, and top 5 rushing game, to make up for the deficiencies in the passing game (and keep JB)

 

Or

 

2) try to get a top 10ish kind of QB who can energize the O, taking pressure off the running game and D.

 

To the OP and @Chloe6124 . What type of play makers on O are you talking about. We've got two of the better TEs in the league. We've got one of the better WRs in the league. Funch will be back shortly. Honestly, another big play WR likely won't help much. We're not a vertical team, and I doubt that changes. Only a good possession WR would likely succeed in the current O, and possession O is really not "big play maker" O. Even TY is looking quite restrained in this O, and adding another TY like guy doesn't guarantee much.

I am not convinced we can’t have more of a vertical game. Whether we actually open the playbook is another story. We need another WR because Hilton is getting older. Campbell will turn out good but we can’t wait and see on Cain. I think Campbell will turn into that electric guy if he stays healthy. I would still rather use draft picks on holes we need to fill before a QB. I don’t ever see our dline getting where it needs to be for a long time. Our core guys are getting old and Ballard won’t go buy one.

[Two_pound]

Kenny Moore is outstanding. In regards to tonights game, I'm not sure that was great defense, those two offenses are just like the Colts- short passes and lots of running. not much threat of deep passes. This opinion won't be popular here, but the seahawk offense resembles a highschool offense, very basic, vanilla if you will. Oh, one more thing the seahawks had 2nd and goal tonight from the 1 and they ran the ball, guess what happened , they scored a td. didn't gift wrap a int to the 49ers.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

It really sucks Turay got hurt. He was starting to be a big issue. We need more game wreckers on the dline. I am glad Houston though has played great and worth the money we gave him. How do we get the game wreckers on defense when we don’t pick very high.

[Two_pound]

Darious Leonard was a second round pick. Turay and Lewis were second round picks(injuries have been a big part of their slow development and you cannot predict injuries). But generally speaking you have to be in the top 10 to get outstanding dl picks. How many top 10 picks are on the 49er dl, so how many years in a row did they suck??????????

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

Darious Leonard was a second round pick. Turay and Lewis were second round picks(injuries have been a big part of their slow development and you cannot predict injuries). But generally speaking you have to be in the top 10 to get outstanding dl picks. How many top 10 picks are on the 49er dl, so how many years in a row did they suck??????????

I think they said tonight they have five first round picks on that line. Wouldn’t it be fun to get a player like chase Daniels. We will never be in a position to get a guy like that.

[NannyMcafee]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

Funny we never get threads like this until we lose to somebody.  When we are winning we are shoe ins for the playoffs and every other pleasant thing you can think of.  Let us lose a game or two then all of a sudden we are couple years away at this or that! How long we gon keep playing this back and forth type thing?

 

Losing shows you where you need to improve and is the best teacher. So yeah it makes sense. 

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I am not convinced we can’t have more of a vertical game. Whether we actually open the playbook is another story. We need another WR because Hilton is getting older. Campbell will turn out good but we can’t wait and see on Cain. I think Campbell will turn into that electric guy if he stays healthy. I would still rather use draft picks on holes we need to fill before a QB. I don’t ever see our dline getting where it needs to be for a long time. Our core guys are getting old and Ballard won’t go buy one.

Ballard went and "bought" Houston in the last off season, as well as Funch. So while he isn't spend happy, he has been willing to do certain things. 

 

Honestly I wouldn't use high draft picks on a WR for a QB and a team that is limited mostly to a possession type offense. JB needs to show he can go vertical with existing play makers before gamble on what ifs (improvement). I'm either going to use high draft picks on the DL (to get a difference maker for a cheap 4 years), or a QB that that might make the O more dynamic with it's existing play makers.

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was thinking that the way this team started at 5-2 we wouldn’t need all our draft picks. Seeing things unfolding on the offensive side of the ball and a few defensive pieces I think we actually do need them all this upcoming draft. We have to address a playmaker or two on offense either through the draft or FA. We need dline help as ours is getting older. And we need oline depth. I think ballard did a good job creating depth now at safety and linebacker. We need to see if speed develops. If tell keeps improving and Rock I think we are in good hands at corner after Desir retires or moves on. But we do need another corner as Wilson is not the future.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do getting this roster where it needs to be. It still might be a couple more years before we can say the rebuild is done.

I thought you were “done with this team”. Did you change your mind?

[CaptainColt12]

I think we need to go big in FA this offseason, the time for building up through the draft is almost done,obviously it never ends but we need to rely on getting great talent immediately and not focus entirely on the draft. So we can't just take a few veteran pieces/average players. If there is a big player in FA(like top 10 at their position) that will help us, we need to get that player. Considering we just opened up a lot of cap with Luck retiring.

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

9 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Watching that game tonight it is very clear the colts aren’t even close to contenders. We need more playmakers. Guys like clowney was a wrecking ball tonight. We have so far to go but unless we take a chance on a FA or two that can make a difference not sure how we get there. Those two teams defense was incredible tonight. I hope we get there some day.

as a rule in the draft the playmakers are in the first round, nelson for example, ballard likes to trade down for more lower round picks thinking  quanity will win over quality. he also likes cheap free agents, who are cheap for a reason. sum it up , higher in the draft the better the talent, higher the price for a free agent the more elite the talent. his method fills the roster with a lot of average or below average talent , I hope his method works for us. I think he should study how hoodie fills his roster each season, hoodie does not have these long years of rebuilding. he puts  a competitive team on the field each season.

[Imgrandojji]

10 hours ago, coltfaninnewyork said:

I think the biggest question is,Jacoby the long term franchise quarterback ? I'm not sure and maybe the colts aren't either .

You kind of have to behave as if he is for now.  More than one successful rebuild has started with a decent-to-good QB before it found its great one.  Thinking of Maddux to Roethlisberger and Bledsoe to Brady when I say this.

[krunk]

10 hours ago, zibby43 said:

 

That's fair, but here's the thing, I think most of us realized that when the Colts were at 5-2, with the way the Colts had won close, 1-possesion games and lost to teams they had no business losing to (including the Raiders at home), that the Colts probably weren't quite as good as their record indicated.

 

Conversely, when the Colts were 1-5 last year, and then started to blow out the bad teams on their schedule (something that the '19 team is incapable of), I think we realized that the Colts were probably much better than their record indicated.

 

Which brings me to my next point.  Football Outsiders did a "study" where they analyzed every single regular season game from 1995-2004 to see whether teams that built their records on close wins over good teams did better in the postseason than teams that padded their records with big wins over bad teams.

 

They did this evaluation based on counting the numbers of "GUTS" and "STOMPS."

 

STOMP: A win by at least 14 points over a team that will finish the year below .500.
GUT: A win by 1-8 points over a team that will finish the year above .500.

 

The 2003 Patriots are the only team to lead the league in GUT wins and make the Super Bowl.

 

TL;DR: Winning a bunch of one-possession games, particularly against .500 or sub-.500 teams is oftentimes a strong indicator that a team is not an elite postseason team.

 

The Colts are winning some of their one-possession games against .500-level teams, but they're also losing a fair share against sub-.500, which is an even bigger red flag.

 

Full "study" - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2005/fo-fox-guts-and-stomps

Is this not the same team that everybody thought was primed for the Super Bowl in the offseason?  The same team that most of the pundits said had a very good roster?  Now because the offense is sluggish we are a couple years away competition and personnel wise?  Again nobody was saying we were years away when the wins were coming in.  Defense is getting better and better with each game.  It always amazes me where peoples minds go after a loss or more than 1 loss. I think Reich is competent enough to sit down and honestly evaluate the offense, make the necessary adjustments to get things moving.  It doesn't take years to make adjustments.  The other factor is the slew of injuries which unfortunately have kind of derailed things temporarily.  I really don't care anything about the study because I've seen the Colts beat and hang with high flying offenses and I've seen then win over top defensive teams consistently.  That's really all the evidence you need to know we aren't years away.   I haven't seen anybody in the AFC that the Colts won't give a problem to.  That doesn't change because of a fluke loss.  A loss that ocurred with a backup QB in and backup WR at pretty much every spot.  And we gifted them that game with our own foolish turnovers.   The Colts are not years away. We have some things challenging us right now, but I don't think its because Ballards not finished with the rebuild and all these other theories.  Most of it is injuries and some young guys needing to grow up. 

[Valpo2004]

12 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was thinking that the way this team started at 5-2 we wouldn’t need all our draft picks. Seeing things unfolding on the offensive side of the ball and a few defensive pieces I think we actually do need them all this upcoming draft. We have to address a playmaker or two on offense either through the draft or FA. We need dline help as ours is getting older. And we need oline depth. I think ballard did a good job creating depth now at safety and linebacker. We need to see if speed develops. If tell keeps improving and Rock I think we are in good hands at corner after Desir retires or moves on. But we do need another corner as Wilson is not the future.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do getting this roster where it needs to be. It still might be a couple more years before we can say the rebuild is done.

 

An NFL team always needs work on it's roster, but with a franchise QB and a solid kicker we are SB material.  

 

 

[krunk]

9 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

Losing shows you where you need to improve and is the best teacher. So yeah it makes sense. 

Losing is not the best teacher if you make extreme and innacurate judgements of what caused you to lose in the first place.  We didn't lose to Pitt or Miami because of personnel.  That's like at the bottom of the list for both losses.   

[NannyMcafee]

13 minutes ago, krunk said:

Losing is not the best teacher if you make extreme and innacurate judgements of what caused you to lose in the first place.  We didn't lose to Pitt or Miami because of personnel.  That's like at the bottom of the list for both losses.   

 

They lost because of lack of discipline and Frank's play calling. All teachable experiences. It's not just cut and dry. 

[throwing BBZ]

13 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was thinking that the way this team started at 5-2 we wouldn’t need all our draft picks. Seeing things unfolding on the offensive side of the ball and a few defensive pieces I think we actually do need them all this upcoming draft. We have to address a playmaker or two on offense either through the draft or FA. We need dline help as ours is getting older. And we need oline depth. I think ballard did a good job creating depth now at safety and linebacker. We need to see if speed develops. If tell keeps improving and Rock I think we are in good hands at corner after Desir retires or moves on. But we do need another corner as Wilson is not the future.  

 

We still have a lot of work to do getting this roster where it needs to be. It still might be a couple more years before we can say the rebuild is done.

 

 You should watch Tell. He looks very good. 
 Bye bye Paganos 2nd rd pick Wilson, here comes Ballard's 5th rd pick.

[Superman]

12 hours ago, zibby43 said:

I think most of us realized that when the Colts were at 5-2, with the way the Colts had won close, 1-possesion games and lost to teams they had no business losing to (including the Raiders at home), that the Colts probably weren't quite as good as their record indicated.

 

I don't know that everyone felt that way. Plenty of people were talking about how we were two kicks away from being 7-1 and how we could have a chance of beating the Patriots in the playoffs.

[The Fish]

(I'm back, wait, who? The Fish.. maybe someone can help me get my old account back).. You're telling me that this rebuild that was undertook with the idea the Andrew Luck was the QB and now he's not is off schedule? This thing is perilously close to turning into the kind of perennial mediocrity that's hard to get out of.

[Superman]

11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

On D, we need DT more than anything. We'll need a true game wrecking DE as well, as Houston is aging, and I don't see any of the young guys developing into a true 3 down monster. 

 

And while we have upgraded LB and DB, they still are far from perfect. Only Leonard and Hooker are top tier right now. I think Rock has the potential to be top tier, but not there. The rest are plain good to average. 

 

I think there are still legitimate questions about the roster. We're projecting a lot of young guys to be good players, and while I'm bullish on a lot of them, we don't really know what they'll be. I'm glad they're playing, but we need to give it time to figure out what we actually have in guys like Okereke, Willis, is Turay any good, etc. 

 

[shasta519]

27 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 You should watch Tell. He looks very good. 
 Bye bye Paganos 2nd rd pick Wilson, here comes Ballard's 5th rd pick.

 

Tell looks legit out there. I still have my dreams about him being this ballhawking S...but he looks pretty natural at CB. I am just happy he found a way to get his athleticism on the field. Now I am not sure how they take him off of it.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

Is this not the same team that everybody thought was primed for the Super Bowl in the offseason?  The same team that most of the pundits said had a very good roster?  Now because the offense is sluggish we are a couple years away competition and personnel wise?  Again nobody was saying we were years away when the wins were coming in.  Defense is getting better and better with each game.  It always amazes me where peoples minds go after a loss or more than 1 loss. I think Reich is competent enough to sit down and honestly evaluate the offense, make the necessary adjustments to get things moving.  It doesn't take years to make adjustments.  The other factor is the slew of injuries which unfortunately have kind of derailed things temporarily.  I really don't care anything about the study because I've seen the Colts beat and hang with high flying offenses and I've seen then win over top defensive teams consistently.  That's really all the evidence you need to know we aren't years away.   I haven't seen anybody in the AFC that the Colts won't give a problem to.  That doesn't change because of a fluke loss.  A loss that ocurred with a backup QB in and backup WR at pretty much every spot.  And we gifted them that game with our own foolish turnovers.   The Colts are not years away. We have some things challenging us right now, but I don't think its because Ballards not finished with the rebuild and all these other theories.  Most of it is injuries and some young guys needing to grow up. 

 

 NO! Not at all the same team.
  And projecting kids to play at a SB level is a fools game. Pundits are a dime a dozen. A fun read for good Homer's.
 This off season will flush a number of those SB contender making players from this team. We have a long way to go to being real contenders again. Lots of draft picks and a few more years of experience/knowledge away.

You know-development. 

[John Waylon]

8 hours ago, csmopar said:

I thought you were “done with this team”. Did you change your mind?

This tends to happen. 
 

A lot. 

[csmopar]

Just now, John Waylon said:

This tends to happen. 
 

A lot. 

I know, right?

[krunk]

48 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 NO! Not at all the same team.
  And projecting kids to play at a SB level is a fools game. Pundits are a dime a dozen. A fun read for good Homer's.
 This off season will flush a number of those SB contender making players from this team. We have a long way to go to being real contenders again. Lots of draft picks and a few more years of experience/knowledge away.

You know-development. 

And this comes from the mouth of the same guy who said we would win 5 to 6 games for the entire season with Luck under saddle last year!

[Nadine]

1 hour ago, Iforgotmyname said:

(I'm back, wait, who? The Fish.. maybe someone can help me get my old account back).. You're telling me that this rebuild that was undertook with the idea the Andrew Luck was the QB and now he's not is off schedule? This thing is perilously close to turning into the kind of perennial mediocrity that's hard to get out of.

I can, message me and let me know the email address associated with your account

[Myles]

58 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 NO! Not at all the same team.
  And projecting kids to play at a SB level is a fools game. Pundits are a dime a dozen. A fun read for good Homer's.
 This off season will flush a number of those SB contender making players from this team. We have a long way to go to being real contenders again. Lots of draft picks and a few more years of experience/knowledge away.

You know-development. 

Not really.  This team was a decent bet to win the SuperBowl this year, even with the Pats in the same conference.   

 

The Colts' odds of winning the Super Bowl this season plummeted at sportsbooks after quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement on Saturday night. PointsBet moved Indianapolis's Super Bowl odds from 12/1 to 50/1, while the Colts' win total shifted from 10 to six.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Not really.  This team was a decent bet to win the SuperBowl this year, even with the Pats in the same conference.   

 

The Colts' odds of winning the Super Bowl this season plummeted at sportsbooks after quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement on Saturday night. PointsBet moved Indianapolis's Super Bowl odds from 12/1 to 50/1, while the Colts' win total shifted from 10 to six.

 

 Duh! So then we are Not the same team without last years QB.
 And all this depth we had was largely based on rookie and unproven 2nd year players being many of this years playmakers. I liked the draft and last years rookies too. Knowing that they will be who we Want/Expect them to be is folly. 
 Just based on their having to learn so much. This will Always be true.

[Blueblood23]

14 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Watching that game tonight it is very clear the colts aren’t even close to contenders. We need more playmakers. Guys like clowney was a wrecking ball tonight. We have so far to go but unless we take a chance on a FA or two that can make a difference not sure how we get there. Those two teams defense was incredible tonight. I hope we get there some day.

Going to be tough if Ballard keeps on not spending the cap money.  He failed to bring in a receiver before the trade deadline. He failed to trade for Williams as the Jets didn't get a lot for him. He let Al Woods walk. He fails to address the kicking woes. Ballard needs to pick it up for the Colts to complete for championships. 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

And this comes from the mouth of the same guy who said we would win 5 to 6 games for the entire season with Luck under saddle last year!

 

 That was looking pretty smart at 1-5.  So you have NO point.
 It was great that we shuffled the 0-line and it worked out so well.
 And Ebron was such a Hero.
 Loved all those sacks and forced fumbles by Leonard. And those 15 tackles on 15 completions on him in One game. haha! How many sacks & FF so far this season?
   I WAS Right on my estimate for last season. It was reasonable. Just glad to not to have to look at our last QB's old throwing motion. Even though his new one was just as robotic. At least it allowed him to more consistently get the ball down where it was always supposed to be. I am glad he finally listened to somebody New.

  Great job by Frank & Eb last season. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

Going to be tough if Ballard keeps on not spending the cap money.  He failed to bring in a receiver before the trade deadline. He failed to trade for Williams as the Jets didn't get a lot for him. He let Al Woods walk. He fails to address the kicking woes. Ballard needs to pick it up for the Colts to complete for championships. 

We didn’t need a WR before the trade deadline. TY and Parris got hurt after the deadline and funchess is due back.