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What quarterback in the 2020 draft do you want to lead this team

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2 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Just wanted to point out that the college QB rating is different than the NFL QB rating.  In the NFL a 158.3 is perfect.  In college a there is no real limit on the max QB rating so no perfect score.

 

Yep...Burrow is currently rocking a 202.5 rating and Tua has a 204.5 rating. Those two are locked in at the top 2 picks in this upcoming draft IMO...and it's going to be very interesting to see the debate...ala Manning/Leaf and Luck/RG3.

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2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Yep...Burrow is currently rocking a 202.5 rating and Tua has a 204.5 rating. Those two are locked in at the top 2 picks in this upcoming draft IMO...and it's going to be very interesting to see the debate...ala Manning/Leaf and Luck/RG3.

Just like Winston and Mariota was. Neither could carry Jacoby's jockstrap. Oh the draft, how entertaining and a crapshoot it is unless Andrew Luck is coming out.

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Just like Winston and Mariota was. Neither could carry Jacoby's jockstrap. Oh the draft, how entertaining and a crapshoot it is unless Andrew Luck is coming out.

 

Sometimes the dice come up nice and you land Mahomes. Sometimes they come up real nice and you land a Brady when you didn't even realise you were playing craps :P

 

Winston was always a gun slinger type in college and never reigned in the mentality. Mariota I think would have been a different story if he had any durability. Shame. 

 

I recognise your point though. However, with Brissett we do have something of an opportunity to have the best of both. I think it would be a good plan to draft a QB (unless Kelly lives up to his hype), with the intent of sitting and seeing what you have. The question is how high. That I think comes down to value. Certainly don't reach, but if there is a guy you have high on your board who drops, why not? We've got capital in that sort of range. 

 

To continue the gambling analogy, think of it like pot odds in cash poker. You bet when the Expected Value (https://tinyurl.com/jxtjnan) is in your favour. Doesn't guarantee you win every hand, but over a large enough sample you'd show profit. Obviously it's murkier with scouting human beings, but it's the same principle for drafting well. You'll have misses, but over time you'll have more wins than not. 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think you are very unfair about the running game. The fact we are top 10 with teams constantly keying on the run can not be ignored. If we had a passing game at all that teams respected, our yards per carry would be significantly hire. 

 

On the pass catchers.... It sounds like you want multiple WR1s lol. Our "complimentary" players as you call them have all showed they are capable of a lot more productivity with a better QB. Very few teams have as many good "complimentary" players that we have.

 

Sure, TY will need to be replaced in a couple years, but his drop in production isn't because he's slowing or hurt (we're looking at averages when healthy). They've dropped because JBs air yards aren't good, and the ball is forced to him a lot. He already has as many drops this year as he did all of last year.

 

IMO, spending a bunch of money on WRs would be a waist until JB learns to go vertical and is able to go through progressions better and faster. In his current state, he's best with possession type WRs and TEs. And Funch is that type of WR, and will be back soon. But, he'll be like just like another TE or big Pascal.... 

Good post.   I agree.

It's hard to judge the running game when teams are stacking against it.   

With the receiving core, Reich needs to open it up and Brissett need to show he can do multiple reads consistently.  Otherwise, how will we know what Campbell, Hilton and the rest can do.  

 

As Chloe said, Pascal is having a better season than last year.   But that is flawed info.  He only started 4 games last season.   He's already started 7 this season.  21 catches in 7 starts isn't much to brag about, but with the Colts passing game, I'm not sure how to judge it.   He's looked pretty decent to me.  Not quite #2 at this point, but I'd be OK with him as a #3.  

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I think the problem with Marcus Mariota was the year tried to change his game instead of building a offense that was tailored to him. Look at the ravens. They have let Lamar be himself instead of trying to make him into something he wasn’t.

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One of the things I would like to see from Reich with this offense is more variety. We don’t mix it up enough. I thought in the Steelers game before JB got injured I thought he did a really good job of that. Especially how we used Campbell. We need to stop being so predictable. I think that is the biggest issue. 

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3 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Just wanted to point out that the college QB rating is different than the NFL QB rating.  In the NFL a 158.3 is perfect.  In college a there is no real limit on the max QB rating so no perfect score.


Definitely, I just thought most people on this board would be able to identify with the NFL perfect passer rating metric.

 

Thank you for pointing that out though, I could’ve included that as a disclaimer in my post. 

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5 minutes ago, zibby43 said:


Definitely, I just thought most people on this board would be able to identify with the NFL perfect passer rating metric.

 

Thank you for pointing that out though, I could’ve included that as a disclaimer in my post. 

That was kind of my point though.. a 158 college Qb rating is not close to a 158.3 NFL rating.  They use different formula's to calculate.

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9 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

That was kind of my point though.. a 158 college Qb rating is not close to a 158.3 NFL rating.  They use different formula's to calculate.


The NFL formula uses completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. 
 

Applying his SO stats to the formula yielded a rating of 110.67 out of a possible 158.3.

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2 minutes ago, zibby43 said:


The NFL formula uses completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. 
 

Applying his SO stats to the formula yielded a rating of 110.67 out of a possible 158.3.

Thanks... so not really close.

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2 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Thanks... so not really close.


No prob.  Think we seem to be having a failure to communicate though.  When I pulled the stats, I thought the site I was using was utilizing the NFL metric, as opposed to the college one.

 

Thought that season average would’ve been closer to the 200 range considering the NCAA rating can top out in the 1000s.

 

If that makes sense.

 

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4 minutes ago, zibby43 said:


The NFL formula uses completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. 
 

Applying his SO stats to the formula yielded a rating of 110.67 out of a possible 158.3.

Thanks.  110.67 would get you to the pro bowl.

 

I wish the NFL would fix their rating.  It drives me nuts when someone gets a perfect rating when they have incomplete passes.  Imagine if Jackson would have gone 37/37 in his 2 "perfect" games instead of 32/37?   He would of had the same rating.   :scorebad:

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On 11/11/2019 at 11:00 AM, Imgrandojji said:

Quarterback is far from our worst problem right now.  We need 2 dependable receivers, at least 1 linebacker and possibly an additional CB before we go for a QB.

 

At this point I'd spend that #1 pick on an LB, WR, or  heavy duty RB because Mack has been anything but consistent against good defenses.

 

Right now to me Marlon Mack looks like a #1B RB, that needs a heavier guy to play #1A.

We need to fix the D-line first.

 

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As for QBs in next year's draft...Burrow and Tua are gone...I trade up for Herbert and pay what is required.

All the other QBs are longer term projects...which we don't need.

 

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16 minutes ago, CanuckColt said:

We need to fix the D-line first.

 

Yes!

I'm pretty satisfied with our LB crew.   Without the injuries, the WR crew is OK.  I'm good with the RB situation.   Wilkens has shown he can spell Mack.   Mack has done well against defenses that are stacking against the Colts running game.  

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On 11/13/2019 at 1:48 PM, jameszeigler834 said:

Love is a project that probably wont ever be the answer I would take Hurts over him.

I like Hurts a lot, I think he could be like a Lamar Jackson type. Not as good a runner, but still fast enough to do plenty of damage. Think a Dak Prescott/Lamar Jackson hybrid. 

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The real prizes are coming in 2021 man, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. I honestly think Justin Fields is gonna be a better Deshaun Watson, the kid is having an amazing season, and still has another year. It's damn near impossible unfortunately to be in position for these guys unless 1) We are horrible next year or 2) We trade up and give quite a bit. I'd be willing to do either to have Fields/Lawrence, my guess is that by the end of the season next year, Fields will be the consensus #1 overall pick, and TLaw right there at #2. 

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2 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Sometimes the dice come up nice and you land Mahomes. Sometimes they come up real nice and you land a Brady when you didn't even realise you were playing craps :P

 

Winston was always a gun slinger type in college and never reigned in the mentality. Mariota I think would have been a different story if he had any durability. Shame. 

 

I recognise your point though. However, with Brissett we do have something of an opportunity to have the best of both. I think it would be a good plan to draft a QB (unless Kelly lives up to his hype), with the intent of sitting and seeing what you have. The question is how high. That I think comes down to value. Certainly don't reach, but if there is a guy you have high on your board who drops, why not? We've got capital in that sort of range. 

 

To continue the gambling analogy, think of it like pot odds in cash poker. You bet when the Expected Value (https://tinyurl.com/jxtjnan) is in your favour. Doesn't guarantee you win every hand, but over a large enough sample you'd show profit. Obviously it's murkier with scouting human beings, but it's the same principle for drafting well. You'll have misses, but over time you'll have more wins than not. 

Oh I love the draft when drafting/knowing we will get a QB like Luck lol. I promised Stitches I would quit comparing QB's to him coming out but there is nobody like him coming out. I like Burrow but he is going #1 and yeah I guess you never know, we could get a QB in the late 1st round or even the 2nd round that can turn out like Mahomes but it is doubtful.  

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28 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Oh I love the draft when drafting/knowing we will get a QB like Luck lol. I promised Stitches I would quit comparing QB's to him coming out but there is nobody like him coming out. I like Burrow but he is going #1 and yeah I guess you never know, we could get a QB in the late 1st round or even the 2nd round that can turn out like Mahomes but it is doubtful.  

 

Sure, very very few sure thing QBs, and even then the bust rate is pretty high. For every Manning there is a Leaf etc etc. 

 

But while we're not hugely desperate in that we'd have to draft a QB, and know full well he's starting day 1 we can at least take an opportunity if it presents and sit this one out if not. If we get a guy, sit him and see what we've got behind closed doors knowing you've got Brissett secured for that season and he's not going to have an epic meltdown. 

 

Of course that situation would make next season even more interesting when it came to assessing Brissett :stir: 

 

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Sure, very very few sure thing QBs, and even then the bust rate is pretty high. For every Manning there is a Leaf etc etc. 

 

But while we're not hugely desperate in that we'd have to draft a QB, and know full well he's starting day 1 we can at least take an opportunity if it presents and sit this one out if not. If we get a guy, sit him and see what we've got behind closed doors knowing you've got Brissett secured for that season and he's not going to have an epic meltdown. 

 

Of course that situation would make next season even more interesting when it came to assessing Brissett :stir: 

 

I think if Ballard takes a QB it may be 3rd or 4th round. Wasn't Wilson a 3rd rounder? 

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2 hours ago, CanuckColt said:

We need to fix the D-line first.

 

Do not agree.  The D line is an issue mostly because of the injury to Turay.  We might need to upgrade our backups somewhat, but our D-line is something that can be fixed by not getting stupidly unlucky on the injury front.

 

Also if we get some run stopping meat in the LB corps that would go a long way to stabilizing the front 7.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think if Ballard takes a QB it may be 3rd or 4th round. Wasn't Wilson a 3rd rounder? 

 

That he was, mostly because he was considered undersized if I recall. Cousins was, a 4th? Other than that, "legit" (i.e. not backups) QBs I can think of starting not drafted in the 1st:

 

Brissett obviously (weird circumstances)

Foles - 3rd

Garoppolo - 2nd

Carr - 2nd 

Brees - 2nd

Prescott - 4th 

 

More than I'd have thought, but Brees aside, not sure you'd say 100% any of the others are currently what you'd traditionally call franchise/elite guys. Solid starters though.  

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16 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Sure, very very few sure thing QBs, and even then the bust rate is pretty high. For every Manning there is a Leaf etc etc. 

 

But while we're not hugely desperate in that we'd have to draft a QB, and know full well he's starting day 1 we can at least take an opportunity if it presents and sit this one out if not. If we get a guy, sit him and see what we've got behind closed doors knowing you've got Brissett secured for that season and he's not going to have an epic meltdown. 

 

Of course that situation would make next season even more interesting when it came to assessing Brissett :stir: 

 

I will tell you one kid that I've been impressed with is Anthony Gordon out of Washington State.  He's tall and skinny but he has a quick release and his throws seem almost effortless.  in addition from the clips I've been able to see he has a good feel in the pocket and can move around while continuing to scan the field.  From the QBs I have seen he may be the best pure passer this year.  I don't know about other things like leadership, intelligence etc.  But just watching him play he looks like his skills transition well to the NFL game.

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12 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Just like Winston and Mariota was. Neither could carry Jacoby's jockstrap. Oh the draft, how entertaining and a crapshoot it is unless Andrew Luck is coming out.

 

Winston throws picks...but he isn’t awful like Mariota (at actually being a QB). 

 

If both were JB and Winston were FAs and evenly priced...I bet Winston would have more interest.

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12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

I would say it's a combination...and I don't the offense is great overall...from a talent standpoint...outside of the OL.

 

WR

Hilton is a stud, but aging. After him...WR is pretty weak. Campbell as upside...and Pascal looks servicable. Calling it an average group is probably generous.

We had the #6 passing O last season without Doyle, Funch, Campbell, Cain, etc.. TY, Rogers, and Grant were the top 3 WRs (with Pascal and Inman coming on late). Pascal is a big upgrade to Grant. I'm not saying our WR unit is elite, but we did a LOT more with a lot less last year. Everyone's #s are down. It's obvious where this points.

 

12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

TE

Doyle is a solid functional TE...but never been a top player at the position...and he will be 30. His one Pro Bowl (alternate) year was because Kelce and Gronk didn't play. And that was the 2017 season with JB under center...and Doyle was the checkdown option. Ebron is what he is...who had one monster year with TDs...but is largely an overrated pass-catcher. I hope they look to upgrade the position after this season (please LAC...let Henry walk).

Doyle was PBer a few years ago. He had almost 700 yards in a Chud offense with JB. 700 is more than check down....And I'd say if he's only behind Gronk and Kelce, that's damn good. Ebron had 750ish last year, and had drops too. 

 

In short, there's more than enough talent at TE. If Luck had both these guys last year, they'd both be 500+.

 

12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

RB

The running game is top 10ish...I guess...but they also run more than most team teams. They are #5 in rush attempts...but #11 in yards. They only have 4 rushing TDs on the season...and have struggled running the ball in the RZ. Mack is a decent enough RB. He blew up against a terrible (at the time) LAC run defense...and since then...it's been a mixed bag.

This is an obvious one. Every single team has played run heavy D against us. And we are still in the top 10. Macks average ypc was more last year than this year. 

 

Blaming Mack or our running game, is like a guy cussing at his tires when his car's engine blew a rod.

 

12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Mack is also limited as a pass-catcher...and Hines is not an NFL RB...so the RB skillset is limited overall and makes the offense predictable. Hines is a solid pass-catcher...but pretty average. 

Many teams have the RB1 / APB combos. See NE with Sonny and James White. Neither White nor Hines is an RB2, they're an APB or change of pace back. And APBs are typically much smaller and faster than their RB1 3 down back. This is not a problem. If you want a better RB2, they you're talking about Wilkins (Burkhead would be NE's comp).

 

12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

Wilkins is a decent RB2...but doesn't move the needle.

He's doing better than Burkhead, and as good or better than most RB2s

 

12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

I agree that QB has held back the offense this year...and it's an area I truly hope they have an open-mind about going forward. But I also hope they are only getting started on the offensive side of the ball...because it needs work...if they are serious about competing in the future.

 

Bringing a high powered WR2 would be a waste with our aversion to go vertical. The only thing that might help JB is a good possession type WR, and we have that in Funch who will be coming back shortly. Pascal is an above average possession option too. And no way I'm trying to replace Mack if JB is under center. Doesn't matter who you get at RB, teams will over scheme vs our rush, and the any investment in a higher profile RB would also be wasteful....

 

If JB improves in several areas, I'm all for upgrades to an extent. I'm not going to try and upgrade all O skill positions when finding an upgrade at QB makes the entire O perform better in all phases. If you think we wouldn't be a top 10 O, or even top 5 with Luck, I'm not sure what to tell you.

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12 hours ago, Myles said:

Good post.   I agree.

It's hard to judge the running game when teams are stacking against it.   

With the receiving core, Reich needs to open it up and Brissett need to show he can do multiple reads consistently.  Otherwise, how will we know what Campbell, Hilton and the rest can do.  

 

As Chloe said, Pascal is having a better season than last year.   But that is flawed info.  He only started 4 games last season.   He's already started 7 this season.  21 catches in 7 starts isn't much to brag about, but with the Colts passing game, I'm not sure how to judge it.   He's looked pretty decent to me.  Not quite #2 at this point, but I'd be OK with him as a #3.  

Pascal is having improved performance when JB targets him. It typically takes either TY being out, or doubled/tripled for JB to target him though. Look at his game log and compare to Hilton and you'll see what I mean.

 

And yup, running isn't our issue. It's actually pretty impressive we're top 10 given the situation. And folks bagging on the OL are hilarious. They have both a QB with a high time to throw (making it harder on pass pro), and is not respected by Ds (making it hard on run blocking). Their job is much much harder this year.

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13 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Yep...Burrow is currently rocking a 202.5 rating and Tua has a 204.5 rating. Those two are locked in at the top 2 picks in this upcoming draft IMO...and it's going to be very interesting to see the debate...ala Manning/Leaf and Luck/RG3.

 

16 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Just wanted to point out that the college QB rating is different than the NFL QB rating.  In the NFL a 158.3 is perfect.  In college a there is no real limit on the max QB rating so no perfect score.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 12:08 AM, zibby43 said:

 

Last year, as a SO, Love had 32 TDs against 6 INTs and finished the season with a rating of 158.0.

Let that sink in.  He had a nearly perfect (158.3) rating for the ENTIRE season.  Playing at Utah State. 

 

recommend looking at QBR as well. QBR give you a look at 4 attributes (passing, rushing, sacks, penalties EPA)

http://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr

 

 

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15 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Huh. How have the wr proven they would be better with a different QB. Pascal is having a career year. Rogers has been about the same. Campbell has never played with another QB. Funchess has only played one game. Then there is cain who has never played with another QB. That argument is dumb.

Look at all pass catching options from last year and compare their production (averages). TY, Ebron, Pascal, Rogers, Hines. Only Pascal is up, and that's a story of its own. Look at the entire picture. Let me know if you want me to list out the stats and show the % drops in production.

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Look at all pass catching options from last year and compare their production (averages). TY, Ebron, Pascal, Rogers, Hines. Only Pascal is up, and that's a story of its own. Look at the entire picture. Let me know if you want me to list out the stats and show the % drops in production.


I admire your patience...

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Bringing a high powered WR2 would be a waste with our aversion to go vertical. The only thing that might help JB is a good possession type WR, and we have that in Funch who will be coming back shortly. Pascal is an above average possession option too. And no way I'm trying to replace Mack if JB is under center. Doesn't matter who you get at RB, teams will over scheme vs our rush, and the any investment in a higher profile RB would also be wasteful....

 

If JB improves in several areas, I'm all for upgrades to an extent. I'm not going to try and upgrade all O skill positions when finding an upgrade at QB makes the entire O perform better in all phases. If you think we wouldn't be a top 10 O, or even top 5 with Luck, I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

Right...I am not saying put the cart before the horse...QB play is still paramount. And my reservations about the current status of the QB position are well-documented. I am just saying...in addition to QB...I think the current personnel on offense is not as strong as it could be (especially long-term)...and the best parts IMO are starting to age out. 

 

I felt the same last year with Luck...where they had even less talent. They would likely be a top 10 offense now...but they were top 10 before Reich even got here (when Luck was healthy that is)...and they could have been better. 

 

IMO...if you are going to invest in the OL like the Colts have...and hire an offensive-minded HC...don't build an offense with middle and late round picks, UDFAs and one-year FA castoff signings at the skill positions. The Campbell pick was a good start...but I hope to see more investments made toward that goal (chief among them would be QB of course)...because they certainly didn't invest in the OL for Jacoby Brissett to run an efficient low-scoring offense.

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

We had the #6 passing O last season without Doyle, Funch, Campbell, Cain, etc.. TY, Rogers, and Grant were the top 3 WRs (with Pascal and Inman coming on late). Pascal is a big upgrade to Grant. I'm not saying our WR unit is elite, but we did a LOT more with a lot less last year. Everyone's #s are down. It's obvious where this points.

 

Doyle was PBer a few years ago. He had almost 700 yards in a Chud offense with JB. 700 is more than check down....And I'd say if he's only behind Gronk and Kelce, that's damn good. Ebron had 750ish last year, and had drops too. 

 

In short, there's more than enough talent at TE. If Luck had both these guys last year, they'd both be 500+.

 

 

Yes...I agree JB is the big reason the offensive numbers are down. I think you are confusing my post as an excuse for JB. I am just looking at the skill position talent objectively...and it's not overwhelming.

 

Doyle's best year was with JB...so I don't really get this argument about JB holding him back. But that Pro Bowl year (two years ago) was a byproduct of volume as the checkdown option in a bad offense (his yards/catch was <9). Now those checkdowns get spread round (Campbell, Pascal, Hines). I like Doyle just fine though...but he's a solid complimentary piece...and he's also going to turn 30. 

 

I liked Ebron as well when they signed him. But he's a pass-catching TE...who drops passes...he's not some special talent. The Colts need long-term improvements at TE...they can't just keep re-investing more money in the same two guys. So I hope they explore the trade market...or maybe one of these free agent-to-be TEs becomes available.

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

This is an obvious one. Every single team has played run heavy D against us. And we are still in the top 10. Macks average ypc was more last year than this year. 

 

Blaming Mack or our running game, is like a guy cussing at his tires when his car's engine blew a rod.

 

Many teams have the RB1 / APB combos. See NE with Sonny and James White. Neither White nor Hines is an RB2, they're an APB or change of pace back. And APBs are typically much smaller and faster than their RB1 3 down back. This is not a problem. If you want a better RB2, they you're talking about Wilkins (Burkhead would be NE's comp).

 

He's doing better than Burkhead, and as good or better than most RB2s

 

 

I didn't blame Mack for the run game...I am talking about the talent level. For this season, I think it's the lack of light front carries moreso than stacked boxes. The average defenders in the box is about the same as last year...and he is on pace to only see 4-5 more stacked box carries vs. last year. But the light front carries are down and that's where his production came from last year.

 

A big part of the decrease is on the QB...and I am sure the last two games with Hoyer has only increased the base front and stacked front carries. But Mack is also part of it. He's not a pass-catching threat...and he's running the ball on half the plays he's in...so it makes the offense a bit more predictable. 

 

So I don't want a RB2...I want a more well-rounded RB1a. Give me a Nick Chubb or an Aaron Jones type.

 

And Hines is alright...but he's not really an APB...because he can't run the ball. They just do that to keep the defense honest and it's typically a wasted play. But even if we call him an APB...he's fairly average. He has gotten better at making plays after the catch for sure...but still not that dynamic.

 

If I can't have that well-rounded RB1a...then I want a dynamite APB...ala James White or Duke Johnson...or Miles Sanders.

 

Ideally, I can have both...but it's rare to have that setup...like NO the past couple of years. Right now, I just feel like the Colts are missing parts to the RB game...and I think some investment could be made.

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Dungy said in an interview that he thought Mariota was a good QB. Of course his son played there in college but still, I do wonder if he were in a good offensive system how he would perform. 

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Hey, they say games can be decided by inches sometimes , We have been very close in a lot of our losses , I luv what Adam V has meant for this team, but putting your devotion aside for a hall of  famer and being analytical, Regardless, who has kicked for our team this year, barring the hall of fame kicker we love , We have got to be better at points after TD and FG percentage in clutch games , no matter who our kicker is! This has to get be better! If Adam can turn it around, then fine, but we can't keep doing this over and over. We really do at this point need to look in the future for a younger leg accurate  kicker, and also maybe a punter.

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13 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:


I admire your patience...

I honestly do have the patience of a saint per most of my family and friends lol. 

 

I keep thinking one day she'll start looking at stats and other objective info and form her own opinion,,,,,,  instead of embracing shallow tweets, getting warmed by coach-speak, and falling in love via all the sunshine pumping pro-Colt media heads. If she were my neighbor, I'd invite her over for beers and math.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Yeah, I"ve become a fan of the QBR since you posted it a few weeks ago about JB.

I try to look at everything. Nothing is perfect, but QBR goes a lot deeper. If you have time, do a little googling on how QBR is measured. 

 

Given that pocket passers are declining, it's more and more important to look at all the other "stuff". And I think QBR looks deeper at the pure passing success as well. I just wish they'd release their formula.

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6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Right...I am not saying put the cart before the horse...QB play is still paramount. And my reservations about the current status of the QB position are well-documented. I am just saying...in addition to QB...I think the current personnel on offense is not as strong as it could be (especially long-term)...and the best parts IMO are starting to age out. 

 

I felt the same last year with Luck...where they had even less talent. They would likely be a top 10 offense now...but they were top 10 before Reich even got here (when Luck was healthy that is)...and they could have been better. 

 

IMO...if you are going to invest in the OL like the Colts have...and hire an offensive-minded HC...don't build an offense with middle and late round picks, UDFAs and one-year FA castoff signings at the skill positions. The Campbell pick was a good start...but I hope to see more investments made toward that goal (chief among them would be QB of course)...because they certainly didn't invest in the OL for Jacoby Brissett to run an efficient low-scoring offense.

I agree. I'd love some upgrades if we had a better passer. I still think RB and TE are fine. If we still had Luck, if JB was able/willing to go deep, or if we draft, I'd love a more dynamic X. I thought Cain might be that for Luck. I don't know about Cain, but I do think his strengths were totally wasted, and weaknesses totally highlighted, in how they tried to use him. The constant shifting back and forth from X and Z stunted his growth too. With JB as-is, he'll likely never evolve, while I could see him doing much better with a vertical QB/Offense. 

 

Like I said above though, I do think RB and TE are fine. I even think we'd be fine with one of Ebron/Doyle plus MA-C with most QBs. And while Mack isn't in the same league as some, he's very high in the that tier 2 group of very good RBs. If we had great QB play, I'd be open to upgrading.... But not while every D is just going to load up vs the run. 

 

I'm just praying JB finds another gear in the last 7 games.

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6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Yes...I agree JB is the big reason the offensive numbers are down. I think you are confusing my post as an excuse for JB. I am just looking at the skill position talent objectively...and it's not overwhelming.

Yup, apologies. My point is just that with the regression of most with JB, I'm not going to spend a lot unless he improves. It would be wasteful spending. If JB doesn't improve, and is still kept, the only answer is going all in on improving the D, and embracing a SF like model.

6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Doyle's best year was with JB...so I don't really get this argument about JB holding him back. But that Pro Bowl year (two years ago) was a byproduct of volume as the checkdown option in a bad offense (his yards/catch was <9). Now those checkdowns get spread round (Campbell, Pascal, Hines). I like Doyle just fine though...but he's a solid complimentary piece...and he's also going to turn 30. 

I'm honestly not the biggest Doyle fan, but I think he's capable of a lot more. And TEs are often check downs in just about every O. Doyle is going to be shallow to intermediate TE in most Os, while Ebron is more of a detached vertical threat.

 

Doyle had 700ish in a Chud O, and yes, I think JB is holding him back this year. For whatever reason, JB has become much more conservative this year in a lot of ways, but still has the same AGGN stats because of his forcing it to TY. He was willing to go deep in 2017 even though his CAY and IAY are about the same.

 

This year, Doyle is running open a lot and not getting the ball, not to mention his average ypc is a bit up. He's top 5 in the league (including WRs) in separation. Doyle had like 80 catches on 107 (75%) targets in 2017 with an 8.6ish average. This year, 27 of 38 (71%) for 276 in 9 games. YPG and targets are down around 30% even though YPC is up. 

6 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

I liked Ebron as well when they signed him. But he's a pass-catching TE...who drops passes...he's not some special talent. The Colts need long-term improvements at TE...they can't just keep re-investing more money in the same two guys. So I hope they explore the trade market...or maybe one of these free agent-to-be TEs becomes available.

I'm not the biggest Ebron fan honestly either. His drops are a problem when he gets streaky, but he is a special RZ talent. He's much better vertical and EZ when he's gets a leading pass away from body. We used him brilliantly last year, and this year is a head scratcher. 

 

I'd be fine with upgrading with a trade or mid round draft pick, but again, I think it's wasteful unless we see improvement from JB. Both TEs have regressed with JB, and a new shiny toy won't fix that.

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