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JediXMan

It's divison or bust now

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1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

...dude. no. 

 

the offense is vanilla because the starting quarterback is new to this system and barely took 1st team reps last week as JB was supposed to play. They had not been vanilla up until the minute JB went down, they had been effective. Team is underachieving? Really. We lost our franchise qb and theoretically still control our destiny to win the division, and you think they are "underachieving." Go back to your hole. 

We have been conservative/vanilla all year with JB. I'm fine with that the first half of the season, but the training wheels need to come off now.

 

45 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I just don’t see how we get by the jags even with JB unless Hilton or funchess play.  Our oline is bad and they can get pressure.  It will be easy for them to stack the box with the WR we have right now.  With their run game and foles arm that is a bad combination. I don’t know what their receiving core is like. But with him being a good deep ball passer I hope Desir is back. They are also coming off a bye week. 

The OL isn't bad. Their job has been made twice as hard as last year. The right side is not as good as many said, but they are still not bad. 

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We are not beating the jags with at least Ty or DF. They are going to come back to late. We will be out of the division and wildcard race  by the time they play. Maybe JB will be able to get more out of the WR and TE then hoyer did but it will be hard.

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14 hours ago, esmort said:

 

I know "Any Given Sunday" and all, but almost no chance the Colts beat the Saints in New Orleans.

New Orleans really ain't all that scary. Brees looked pedestrian the 2nd half of last season and he's looking to do the same thing this year. 

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14 hours ago, esmort said:

Unless the Colts improve significantly in several areas between now and then and/or the Saints don't return form the odds of us winning that game are slim to none.  Anyone thinking we have a good shot of going in and knocking off the Saints are setting themselves up for a big disappointment...not just with the Saints game but with the rest of the season in general.

 

It's literally not slim to none odds. The way this team plays and slows the game down, every game is winnable. Our defense is actually playing solid right now and getting better. The offense needs Brissett under center, and will be getting not only TY back but Funchess as well. So all the nonsense you just posted is getting laughed at by the reasonable people on this forum. This season might result in disappointment, but we are still going to compete in every single game. Every. Single. Game. 

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According to this Campbell is expected to miss the next two games but should be back by DEC. At least we should have everyone back and see what this team might of been even if it’s two late for the playoffs.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

According to this Campbell is expected to miss the next two games but should be back by DEC. At least we should have everyone back and see what this team might of been even if it’s two late for the playoffs.

 

 

Just in time for him to get hurt again and go out smh

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It looks like funchess will need a week of practice before playing and we probably dont get TY back this week. We will get everyone healthy and it will be to late. We will just have to enjoy everyone healthy at WR and be sad of what could of been. 

 

Campbell is going  to be fun to watch in the future  if he can just stay healthy. He reminds me a lot of JU JU if he can learn to play on the outside as well as the slot.

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3 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

It's literally not slim to none odds. The way this team plays and slows the game down, every game is winnable. Our defense is actually playing solid right now and getting better. The offense needs Brissett under center, and will be getting not only TY back but Funchess as well. So all the nonsense you just posted is getting laughed at by the reasonable people on this forum. This season might result in disappointment, but we are still going to compete in every single game. Every. Single. Game. 

 

"Every game is winnable" - what coaches tell the players and fans tell themselves of every mediocre team in the history of sports.

 

Take off the blue glasses. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No. Not unless there are several changes made that we haven't seen yet.  If they are as good as you seem to think they are they should easily be able to win the 4 remaining afcs games and the Saints won't even matter. But whatever you need to tell your self to sleep at night. 

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8 minutes ago, esmort said:

 

"Every game is winnable" - what coaches tell the players and fans tell themselves of every mediocre team in the history of sports.

 

Take off the blue glasses. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No. Not unless there are several changes made that we haven't seen yet.  If they are as good as you seem to think they are they should easily be able to win the 4 remaining afcs games and the Saints won't even matter. But whatever you need to tell your self to sleep at night. 

 

Where did he say it was probable?

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

It looks like funchess will need a week of practice before playing and we probably dont get TY back this week. We will get everyone healthy and it will be to late. We will just have to enjoy everyone healthy at WR and be sad of what could of been. 

 

Campbell is going  to be fun to watch in the future  if he can just stay healthy. He reminds me a lot of JU JU if he can learn to play on the outside as well as the slot.

 

That week of practice may come this week. Either ways, from what I'm hearing the plan is to bring him back this week

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/12/colts-expect-devin-funchess-to-practice-this-week/

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I am just going by what Reich said yesterday about funchess. He said he will return to practice and technically could play but still has some boxes to check. I would think that means a full practice. He has to play if he is ready. He is a veteran so I don’t see a big issue of having to have lots of practice but I know Reich doesn’t think of it that way. I just heard Gregg Renshaw say he asked him in the locker room if he had anything to say. He goes nope I will talk to you Thursday. Hopefully that means he will play.

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So Eberflus has had to design a game plan against Foles and we have a head coach who knows everything about him. I hope this gives us a slight advantage Sunday.

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On 11/10/2019 at 8:16 PM, JediXMan said:

Since the Raiders and Steelers both have tie breakers getting a wildcard spot is unlikely now. Tbh I see this team finishing 8-8 or 9-7 at best. :wall:

Honestly, I see it as division or bust every year. If I was a coach, I would never allow the mindset of "Well, we can grab a wildcard spot." I always see the division as the bare minimum goal. Wildcard spots are too unreliable, and wildcard games can give you ugly matchups. Always best to secure a home game. Also, we're still only one game behind Houston, we're not done yet.

Plus, probably no more Brian Hoyer, so that automatically improves the team tenfold.

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this schedule is a hard one to predict.  wouldnt be shocked if we won or lost any remaining game

 

they have played up or down to the competition for 9 straight games now.

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26 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

this schedule is a hard one to predict.  wouldnt be shocked if we won or lost any remaining game

 

they have played up or down to the competition for 9 straight games now.

I agree, after this past Sunday I have no idea what to predict may happen. 

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2 hours ago, esmort said:

 

"Every game is winnable" - what coaches tell the players and fans tell themselves of every mediocre team in the history of sports.

 

Take off the blue glasses. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No. Not unless there are several changes made that we haven't seen yet.  If they are as good as you seem to think they are they should easily be able to win the 4 remaining afcs games and the Saints won't even matter. But whatever you need to tell your self to sleep at night. 

 

What this team has shown so far this season. Every game has been winnable. This team won't get blown out like previous versions of the Colts. This defense is good and with the style of play, combined with running the ball and moving the sticks on offense (but not making fieldgoals), they keep themselves in every game. 

 

There's no blue glasses here. I am realistic. I know we'll be underdogs in that game. I didn't think we'd win in Arrowhead. Is it possible? Yes, it is possible, and that is far from the slim to none odds you gave them earlier, wouldn't you agree?? 

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Just now, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

What this team has shown so far this season. Every game has been winnable. This team won't get blown out like previous versions of the Colts. This defense is good and with the style of play, combined with running the ball and moving the sticks on offense (but not making fieldgoals), they keep themselves in every game. 

 

There's no blue glasses here. I am realistic. I know we'll be underdogs in that game. I didn't think we'd win in Arrowhead. Is it possible? Yes, it is possible, and that is far from the slim to none odds you gave them earlier, wouldn't you agree?? 

 

The possible in my opinion is much closer to maybe a 10% which I consider slim.  Where it seems the possible to you is much closer to 50%. 

 

The KC game doesn't tell me much because the Chiefs were playing so far under 100%  ... The Texans game even though still not a perfect measuring stick is a slightly better comparison and even that team does not give me a lot of faith. 

 

If you line up all aspects of the Colts against the Saints ... where do you see advantage Colts? I see either advantage Saints or even/wash, i don't see the Colts having the advantage in any area. Versus the Texans we had several area advantages.

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Just looking at stats for the jags game. Both teams are very similar at rushing the ball. Ranked 8th and 9th. We are better at stopping the pass. Our rush defense is a lot better. Jags are better at passing offense. Our team is now a top ten defense. That is crazy. Hopefully they will show its real Sunday and not just because the teams we played the last three weeks.  Hopefully Desir is back to help with the jags passing attack. I can see foles just chucking it up to try and get a PI call.

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11 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Just looking at stats for the jags game. Both teams are very similar at rushing the ball. Ranked 8th and 9th. We are better at stopping the pass. Our rush defense is a lot better. Jags are better at passing offense. Our team is now a top ten defense. That is crazy. Hopefully they will show its real Sunday and not just because the teams we played the last three weeks.  Hopefully Desir is back to help with the jags passing attack. I can see foles just chucking it up to try and get a PI call.

 

But what metrics are you using to rank/assess? 

11 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Isn’t it interesting that three of the colts four losses are without TY. We need TY back Sunday.


Interesting  isn't the word I'd have used.

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13 hours ago, esmort said:

 

The possible in my opinion is much closer to maybe a 10% which I consider slim.  Where it seems the possible to you is much closer to 50%. 

 

The KC game doesn't tell me much because the Chiefs were playing so far under 100%  ... The Texans game even though still not a perfect measuring stick is a slightly better comparison and even that team does not give me a lot of faith. 

 

If you line up all aspects of the Colts against the Saints ... where do you see advantage Colts? I see either advantage Saints or even/wash, i don't see the Colts having the advantage in any area. Versus the Texans we had several area advantages.

Since the Colts play in 1 score games, any of them can be a win or a loss.   I'd give the Colts a 30% chance of winning in New Orleans.   

First we need to take care of the Jags.  

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16 hours ago, esmort said:

 

"Every game is winnable" - what coaches tell the players and fans tell themselves of every mediocre team in the history of sports.

 

Take off the blue glasses. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No. Not unless there are several changes made that we haven't seen yet.  If they are as good as you seem to think they are they should easily be able to win the 4 remaining afcs games and the Saints won't even matter. But whatever you need to tell your self to sleep at night. 

Last year we started 1-5, and finished 10-6. Was that probable? No. You don’t have to be a total homer, but you don’t have to be disgustingly pessimistic and condescending either. Maybe put a tiny smidgen of faith in your football team. Also, the Saints are beatable. Look at their last box score for proof.

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19 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

According to this Campbell is expected to miss the next two games but should be back by DEC. At least we should have everyone back and see what this team might of been even if it’s two late for the playoffs.

 

 

Unfortunately, this does not factor in his next injury.

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If we win the next 3 games we're going to make the playoffs. 8-4 and in 1st place where Houston could be 6-6 with their next 3 against Baltimore, us and New England.

 

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7 minutes ago, DraftMaster said:

If we win the next 3 games we're going to make the playoffs. 8-4 and in 1st place where Houston could be 6-6 with their next 3 against Baltimore, us and New England.

 

If. We couldn’t beat the dolphins and have no idea if TY or DF will be back Sunday.

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55 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was using the stats from the nfl.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

 

 

Yes... but which metric in particular? I'm guessing you're looking at the YPG stuff across the board. 

 

The issue with looking per game is it doesn't directly factor no. snaps, and you could argue the issue with looking at yards that you can give up yards without giving up points, i.e. bend not break. 

 

Points per game, however, is useful to look at, currently we rank 17th on that. 

 

We're currently also 17th in Yards given up per Defensive snap (5.5 yards) 

14th in Net yards given up per Passing Attempt (6.2 yards) 

19th in Yards given up per Rushing Attempt (4.4 yards)

 

Talking of bending not breaking we rank 12th in % of opposition drives that end in a score (39.3%). 

 

Worryingly we're now the 3rd most penalised team on D, and have given up the 4th most yards (670) due to penalities. 

 

We're not too great in forcing turnovers either, ranking 19th in opposition drives that end in turnovers (10.6%). 

 

Some slightly more obscure but useful stats to provide context:

Joint 11th in 1st Downs given up to passes (106)

Joint 18th in 1st Downs given up to runs (54)

We have the 7th fewest missed tackles (52)

18th in % of defensive plays getting pressure on opposition QBs (22.8)

We blitz the 6th least in the league (23.7% of snaps) 

Teams know are weakness is the short stuff, Average Depth of Target against us is 7.5 yards which says a lot about our linebacker coverage (still). 

 

All the above is from PFR which is an amazing wealth of stats and has a very easy to use query builder for their historic database. 

 

If you want to look at efficiency, there is good DVOA (10th on D) or Aikman (17th). 

 

In short, I'd not say we're a top 10 D as yet and just using yards to rank a D is only looking at a small part of the picture. 

 

I think even the most blue eyed fan would know we're not a top 10 D just yet. But there are promising pieces. 

 

 

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On 11/11/2019 at 6:46 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

9-7 could win the division but we need to sweep Jax and sweep Houston. Houston would have to go 3-4 the rest of the way to finish 9-7 as well.

The Colts will not beat Houston in Houston unless there are a couple breaks they capitalize on which can happen. 

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9 minutes ago, King Colt said:

The Colts will not beat Houston in Houston unless there are a couple breaks they capitalize on which can happen. 

 

We may, we may not. I have it marked down as a loss, but they're basically our little brother. You don't lose to your little brother

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12 minutes ago, King Colt said:

The Colts will not beat Houston in Houston unless there are a couple breaks they capitalize on which can happen. 

Why can’t we beat them. We already did once. You don’t think with Hilton and funchess back we can’t beat them. Having funchess back should help open up TY for some longer passes. Texans will probably get roby and fuller back and have upgraded at corner but I don’t see why we can’t best them in Houston. 

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On 11/12/2019 at 5:42 PM, LuckyHorseShoe§ said:

Honestly, I see it as division or bust every year. If I was a coach, I would never allow the mindset of "Well, we can grab a wildcard spot." I always see the division as the bare minimum goal.

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On 11/11/2019 at 7:37 PM, esmort said:

 

I won't even open that can of worms other than to say, if we get a similar set of circumstances as we did with the Chiefs sure than maybe it's a possibility and even than I wouldn't bet on it.  

Three AFC South teams beat KC this year.

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Really, it always did come down to the division ... I said so weeks ago, well before the Houston game.  As I see it, they HAVE to run the table in the division.  A loss to the Jags this week will be catastrophic, and the next game vs Houston, there is zero margin for a loss.

 

My prediction is, in the very least, if the Colts don’t beat the Jags this week and Houston in their next meeting, Colts will not win the division.

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