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Jacoby Brissett Impressions: (Perma Merge)

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19 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

is your r squared high or low?

i'd guess it would be low due to all the regression

 

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It can be because we have the right team around JB. We are a run 1st team now with a great O.Line. JB can win games as long as he has talent around him and we have the mind set that running the ball 1st is the most important thing. JB is a QB that rarely makes mistakes is why we can win playing the style we play. Can we win a SB with JB? That I am not sure of but we didn't with the great Andrew Luck either. I still think we are a good DT, a playmaker at WR to help JB, and another consistent young kicker away from being a great team. We are good right now though. 


Winning a SB is a tough tough thing, and luck plays a huge part. 
 

I’d instead like to get back to being the sort of team who are, barring major weirdness, going to be pretty much playoff locks year to year. Basically consistently win games over a large sample.

 

Could we get there from where we are now, without a major change, sure. But a lot will depend on Brissett, that’s just the nature of the game. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:


Winning a SB is a tough tough thing, and luck plays a huge part. 
 

I’d instead like to get back to being the sort of team who are, barring major weirdness, going to be pretty much playoff locks year to year. Basically consistently win games over a large sample.

 

Could we get there from where we are now, without a major change, sure. But a lot will depend on Brissett, that’s just the nature of the game. 

I trust Ballard to keep building this team up and I like Reich for the most part. Tonight's game would be a huge boost for JB and the team if we win regarding making the playoffs. If we lose tonight I still won't be too down on JB unless he just plays poorly. We are really still 3 or 4 players away from being a very good to great team. A good DT, WR that can make plays downfield, a good Kicker, and I would love another good Pass Rusher as well. Ballard will address these issues in the draft I am sure.

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I was watching a analyst on one of the shows and he mentioned how he thinks the league is starting to go back to a run first offense. Maybe I can go find the video.  It was a interesting take. He talked about how  dominate olines and pounding the ball are going to start becoming more of the norm.

 

I know some people find Jacoby boring. I think he is fun to watch. He is a lot like Watson and is Houdini avoiding the rush. 

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39 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Never a dull moment in this thread. I just went through and read all the posts. Here is a question for everyone, is it fair to say that JB is defying all odds by being 6-2 in games he has started and finished based on his stats? If so, next time I go to Vegas I need him with me because 6-2 = 75% winnings :thmup: lmao 

 

JB isn't 6-2, the Colts are 6-2 in games in which JB starts. (Actually 6-3, but we're throwing out the Steelers game.)

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

JB isn't 6-2, the Colts are 6-2 in games in which JB starts. (Actually 6-3, but we're throwing out the Steelers game.)

It is a team game you are correct. I should've said we are 6-3 in games he starts, 6-2 when he starts and finishes. That would be the best way to put it :thmup:

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14 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I was watching a analyst on one of the shows and he mentioned how he thinks the league is starting to go back to a run first offense. Maybe I can go find the video.  It was a interesting take. He talked about how  dominate olines and pounding the ball are going to start becoming more of the norm.

 

I know some people find Jacoby boring. I think he is fun to watch. He is a lot like Watson and is Houdini avoiding the rush. 

To me going by this year, JB reminds me of Alex Smith. A QB that was above average and good at times. That really isn't a bad thing, Smith actually got to an NFC Title Game and his team lost in OT. QB's like Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson all won SB's and Smith was better than all of those guys. Smith was actually better than Nick Foles as well IMO and Foles and his team beat the Pats in the SB.

 

All of the QB's I just named, JB is just as good if not better from what I have seen so far.

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It's like the study of odds. If you roll doubles 4 times in a row, the odds are pretty strong that you will not roll doubles in the next roll. However, the odds are spread over a massive amount of rolls. But, every time the dice is rolled, countless (approaching infinity) other odds are also in play. Such as....rolling dice 8 times in a row....which happens every now and then.

 

However, when the run is stuffed 10 timed in a row, using the same formation, against the same front......it's a pretty good bet that it's gonna get stuffed again. :cheers:

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15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

JB isn't 6-2, the Colts are 6-2 in games in which JB starts. (Actually 6-3, but we're throwing out the Steelers game.)

 

An important distinction IMO. Otherwise...why couldn't we say JB was 4-12 in 2017...giving him 10-12 record as Colts QB.

 

I recall...even in that "disastrous" 2015 season...the Colts were 5-3 when MH started. They were even 4-0 in the first 4 games he started.

 

And I would argue that MH was better over those first 4 games than JB has been over the past 4 games (he started and finished)...yet both teams went 4-0.

 

There is definitely more to it than W/L...I would have thought the Grigano era taught us this. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

An important distinction IMO. Otherwise...why couldn't we say JB was 4-12 in 2017...giving him 10-12 record as Colts QB.

 

I recall...even in that "disastrous" 2015 season...the Colts were 5-3 when MH started. They were even 4-0 in the first 4 games he started.

 

And I would argue that MH was better over those first 4 games than JB has been over the past 4 games (he started and finished)...yet both teams went 4-0.

 

There is definitely more to it than W/L...I would have thought the Grigano era taught us this. 

 

 

yes there are many factors to consider in a game but in the end the only stat that matters to many fans is the final score

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3 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

An important distinction IMO. Otherwise...why couldn't we say JB was 4-12 in 2017...giving him 10-12 record as Colts QB.

 

I recall...even in that "disastrous" 2015 season...the Colts were 5-3 when MH started. They were even 4-0 in the first 4 games he started.

 

And I would argue that MH was better over those first 4 games than JB has been over the past 4 games (he started and finished)...yet both teams went 4-0.

 

There is definitely more to it than W/L...I would have thought the Grigano era taught us this. 

 

 

In the end, all that matters is wins and losses. Everyone in here can discuss every thing imaginable but in the end the W is all that counts. Are you going to be happier if JB throws for 300 yards and 3 TD's but we lose? Or if he throws for 185 yards and 2 TD's but we win? 

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I hope people will be consistent with their emphasis on results-oriented analysis if/when the results start regressing to the mean... 

 

I won't hold my breath. 

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3 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hope people will be consistent with their emphasis on results-oriented analysis if/when the results start regressing to the mean... 

 

I won't hold my breath. 

we have seriously benefited from the AFC falling apart and having a cupcake schedule. I fear the outcome when we play elite teams.

 

we have actually struggled more than I would like to beat these bad teams as well 

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11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

In the end, all that matters is wins and losses. Everyone in here can discuss every thing imaginable but in the end the W is all that counts. Are you going to be happier if JB throws for 300 yards and 3 TD's but we lose? Or if he throws for 185 yards and 2 TD's but we win? 

very well said, who cares how we win as long as we do. if a qb does not throw many ints compared to tds, the metrics of it will figure a high r squared. lol

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18 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

In the end, all that matters is wins and losses. Everyone in here can discuss every thing imaginable but in the end the W is all that counts. Are you going to be happier if JB throws for 300 yards and 3 TD's but we lose? Or if he throws for 185 yards and 2 TD's but we win? 

 

As a Colts fan...I am always happy when we win and not happy when we lose (except for lost seasons...as I am more pragmatic than most when it comes to the benefits of a lost season).

 

But what makes me happy above all else is winning football games in January. 

 

In fairness to JB...we haven't seen him as the QB of the Colts on that stage. But in fairness to me...there is data that shows the type of offenses that win in Janaury...and right now the Colts aren't quite there.

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9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

In the end, all that matters is wins and losses. Everyone in here can discuss every thing imaginable but in the end the W is all that counts. Are you going to be happier if JB throws for 300 yards and 3 TD's but we lose? Or if he throws for 185 yards and 2 TD's but we win? 

So everyone gets an auto pass a long as we win. Our WR team must be great! No need to upgrade there either if their performance remains the same, right!

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45 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

To me going by this year, JB reminds me of Alex Smith. A QB that was above average and good at times. That really isn't a bad thing, Smith actually got to an NFC Title Game and his team lost in OT. QB's like Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson all won SB's and Smith was better than all of those guys. Smith was actually better than Nick Foles as well IMO and Foles and his team beat the Pats in the SB.

 

All of the QB's I just named, JB is just as good if not better from what I have seen so far.


Begs the question then, why did KC choose to move on from Smith?

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

So everyone gets an auto pass a long as we win. Our WR team must be great! No need to upgrade there either if their performance remains the same, right!

No, I am just saying if we win that is the most important thing. Being critical of a player is perfectly fine. Also I have already said in an earlier post we are 3 or 4 players away from being very good to great. I think as of now we are a good team though. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:


Begs the question then, why did KC choose to move on from Smith?

Because Andy Reid thought Mahomes was better and he is. If there is a Mahomes in this draft than I would take him over JB. There isn't IMO. I would take Andrew Luck back over JB but Andrew is retired. I think it is fair to say JB is above average though and can win games was my point.

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

No, I am just saying if we win that is the most important thing. Being critical of a player is perfectly fine. Also I have already said in an earlier post we are 3 or 4 players away from being very good to great. I think as of now we are a good team though. 

So then you can understand some that think QB may be one of those 3 or 4 players come end of the season. 

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15 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hope people will be consistent with their emphasis on results-oriented analysis if/when the results start regressing to the mean... 

 

I won't hold my breath. 

 

I understand why people hold it in regard...but it's sort of the last bastion of this debate IMO.

 

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Because Andy Reid thought Mahomes was better and he is. If there is a Mahomes in this draft than I would take him over JB. There isn't IMO. I would take Andrew Luck back over JB but Andrew is retired. I think it is fair to say JB is above average though and can win games was my point.


A fair position, and not exactly a million miles away from what I’ve said previously. What did you have us pitched as for a final record again? 9-7?

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2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I understand why people hold it in regard...but it's sort of the last bastion of this debate IMO.

 


It’s fairly obvious who are the people capable and willing to have a constructive conversation about things. Generally the people who stick around here for a long time too. 

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

So then you can understand some that think QB may be one of those 3 or 4 players come end of the season. 

I am not one that thinks that but if someone thinks that than that is their opinion. Let me ask you some questions, who coming out of college do you think would be better than JB is? What round would you take a QB in and what QB's do you like coming out? To me there is no Andrew Luck coming out or a Mahomes.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am not one that thinks that but if someone thinks that than that is their opinion. Let me ask you some questions, who coming out of college do you think would be better than JB is? What round would you take a QB in and what QB's do you like coming out? To me there is no Andrew Luck coming out or a Mahomes.


There’s isn’t anyone, IMO, who I’d be willing to give away significant capital to move up for. 
 

Someone drops and there’s value, then maybe. Even then I’d figure it’s a Brissett is starting and they’re sitting a year deal. 

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


A fair position, and not exactly a million miles away from what I’ve said previously. What did you have us pitched as for a final record again? 9-7?

I actually had 8-8 when Andrew retired. So as of now we are doing better than I thought. Maybe that is why I am glass half full.

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8 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Begs the question then, why did KC choose to move on from Smith?

 

Because...despite a 53-27 regular season record...and having a top offensive mind at HC...and building a stingy defense and a strong run offense...they were 1-4 in the playoffs from 2013-2017 with Alex Smith.

 

It's not like Ballard unearthed Mahomes...but I am sure he was still in KC when those QB transition discussions started. He is familiar with it.

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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am not one that thinks that but if someone thinks that than that is their opinion. Let me ask you some questions, who coming out of college do you think would be better than JB is? What round would you take a QB in and what QB's do you like coming out? To me there is no Andrew Luck coming out or a Mahomes.

Especially with the upheaval the Tua injury might cause

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12 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Begs the question then, why did KC choose to move on from Smith?

It is all about the big W in the sky

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I actually had 8-8 when Andrew retired. So as of now we are doing better than I thought. Maybe that is why I am glass half full.


Back to exceeding expectations, but generally you then see a regression to the mean, which finishing 9-7 would represent from where we were. 
 

8-8, 9-7 is fine for a season. Multiple seasons, not so much. Parity hell.

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28 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hope people will be consistent with their emphasis on results-oriented analysis if/when the results start regressing to the mean... 

 

I won't hold my breath. 

If I think Jacoby was the reason for the losses I would say so. There are so many factors that could go into us finishing the season off bad. Was there injuries to key pieces like the oline. Did the defense fall apart. There are a lot of reasons a season could go south.

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2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Because...despite a 53-27 regular season record...and having a top offensive mind at HC...and building a stingy defense and a strong run offense...they were 1-4 in the playoffs from 2013-2017 with Alex Smith.

 

It's not like Ballard unearthed Mahomes...but I am sure he was still in KC when those QB transition discussions started. He is familiar with it.


One thing I will say, the loss to us was out the ordinary. Win that game with the way they had been playing and they might have had a shot. But.. that’s the game for you.

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4 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Back to exceeding expectations, but generally you then see a regression to the mean, which finishing 9-7 would represent from where we were. 
 

8-8, 9-7 is fine for a season. Multiple seasons, not so much. Parity hell.

I agree nobody wants 8-8/9-7 every season but that is where Ballard comes in and puts more talent around JB, builds a better defense, etc. Most people in here thought we wouldn't even be any good this year when Luck retired. My step-dad predicted 5-11 and he has been watching football for 60 years. JB at least has us playing for (basically) a division Title tonight.

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16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am not one that thinks that but if someone thinks that than that is their opinion. Let me ask you some questions, who coming out of college do you think would be better than JB is? What round would you take a QB in and what QB's do you like coming out? To me there is no Andrew Luck coming out or a Mahomes.

I haven't made my mind up yet, and hope we don't need to draft. 

 

In terms of how I'd grade them....

I think Burrow is tops. I think Herbert, Love, and Tua will all be good and have high ceilings. All 4 have a higher ceiling than JB IMO. Doesn't mean they will be better. They are simply more advanced at their current stage than JB was when he entered the same stage. I think the team is overall is pretty well constructed and a place where a lot of QBs could flourish.

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@2006Coltsbestever sorry, didn't answer you entire question. 

I think I'd take a QB in the second if Love or Tua was available with Washington's pick. Burrow is good enough to move up for, but the Bengals are silly if they don't take him at one.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I haven't made my mind up yet, and hope we don't need to draft. 

 

In terms of how I'd grade them....

I think Burrow is tops. I think Herbert, Jordan, Love, and Tua will all be good and have high ceilings. All 5 have a higher ceiling than JB IMO. Doesn't mean they will be better. They are simply more advanced at their current stage than JB was when he entered the same stage. I think the team is overall is pretty well constructed and a place where a lot of QBs could flourish.

Fair enough, I do like Burrow but he is going #1. The others may be good or bad, that is a crapshoot IMO. It is ashame what happened to Tua but IMO I think he is damaged goods now. I might be wrong but a hip injury is no joke.

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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree nobody wants 8-8/9-7 every season but that is where Ballard comes in and puts more talent around JB, builds a better defense, etc. Most people in here thought we wouldn't even be any good this year when Luck retired. My step-dad predicted 5-11 and he has been watching football for 60 years. JB at least has us playing for (basically) a division Title tonight.


I was around the 8-8 mark, post Luck, pre injuries and pre seeing the regression on O. Even then I can’t see it going more than a game each way. Maybe 10-6 if we get hot down the home straight. 
 

We may well win the division, but that I feel is more damming on the Texans. Luck retires and you still can’t win the division?! They’re a weird team.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Fair enough, I do like Burrow but he is going #1. The others may be good or bad, that is a crapshoot IMO. It is ashame what happened to Tua but IMO I think he is damaged goods now. I might be wrong but a hip injury is no joke.

I honestly think Love is the 2nd best overall, and a victim of being on a very bad team this year. 

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