The passing game through 6 games, 2018 vs. 2019.

[t-rex]

 

GAME 1

39/53 329 2/1

Pts. 23

 

21/27 190 2/0

Pts. 24

 

GAME 2

21/31 179 2/2

Pts. 21

 

17/28 146 3/1

Pts. 19

 

GAME 3

25/40 163 1/0

Pts. 16

 

28/37 310 3/0

Pts. 27

 

GAME 4

40/64 464 4/0

Pts. 34

 

24/46 265 3/1

Pts. 24

 

GAME 5

38/59 365 3/2

Pts. 24

 

18/29 151 0/1

Pts. 19

 

GAME 6

23/43 301 4/3

Pts. 34

 

26/39 326 4/0

Pts. 30

 

Jacoby Brissett: 134/206   1388    65%    6.73   14/3    Rating 100.98

Points per game: 143/23.83

 

Andrew Luck: 186/290     1801    64%    6.21    16/8    Rating 88.3

Points per game: 152/25.33.

 

Observations:

 

Through the first 6 games, the 2019 offense has scored just 9 fewer points compared to 2018. If Adam Vinatieri had just been average for the first few weeks, the 2019 offense actually would have been more productive. 

 

The 2019 passing game is currently averaging more yards per pass play than we did through 6 games in 2018 (6.73 vs. 6.21). And we are on pace to nearly equal the mark for the 2018 season (6.7 vs. 7.2).

 

The passer rating is higher through 6 games than it was through 6 games last year. The passer rating is currently on pace to finish slightly higher for the season than it was in 2018 (100.98 vs. 98.7).

 

The completion percentage is comparable across the board. Through 6 games last year it was 64% vs. 65% this year. The 2018 Colts finished the season with a 67% completion percentage.

 

The 2018 team threw the ball far more often. The production in yards is based on volume. Not efficiency.

 

The 2018 team threw a lot more interceptions through the first 6 games (8 vs. 3). The interception rate was not due to the increased passing volume. In 2018 through 6 games our interception rate was 2.75%. In 2019 it is just 1.45%.

 

 

 

Note: Sports Reporter Stephen Holder pointed out on twitter that Jacoby Brissett has less career starts than Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. He's still very young at the position.

 

I find this topic endlessly fascinating. The numbers are from me sitting at my computer with a calculator. If there are any mistakes or typos please let me know and I will correct them. This is why I posted the game by game numbers. More eyes are always better. We play tomorrow. I will update as we move forward.

[Creekside]

Why do we need TV when we have T-Rex?

[csmopar]

Much closer numbers than I thought. I knew the INT ratio was much better but didn’t realize how close we were

[t-rex]

20 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Much closer numbers than I thought. I knew the INT ratio was much better but didn’t realize how close we were

 

Neither did I. I was shocked.

 

The only real difference through 6 games is the yardage. But this is because last year we threw the ball way more often. Through 6 games in 2019 we are averaging more yards per attempt than through 6 games in 2018. 

 

Numbers vs. perception is always interesting.

[indyagent17]

The former quarterback had to rely on his arm because the running game was not that good early. The running game has been fantastic and Brissett is playing well trying to avoid mistakes. Brissett still makes one turn over a game so let's hope this Sunday there are no turnovers

[WoolMagnet]

This is the effect a solid running game and less interceptions can make.

 

  Another thing to ponder is 2018 was arguably Luck's best year. (Overall, from a stats standpoint)

 

  

[stitches]

Why do we keep doing this when we all thought Luck's arm was shot the first 4-5 weeks of the season while he was getting it back in shape after returning from his injury and while we were trying to avoid killing Luck because neither AC nor Smith were yet staring and the run game was non-existent?

 

Numbers are good to have, numbers without context are useless. What's this incessant desire to prove Jacoby is playing close to Luck's level? He's not. And he very likely never will. Believe me, this is NOT a comparison you will want to be making in the long run. Nothing good will come of it for Brissett. Let Brissett succeed or fail on his own terms. 

[CR91]

Not a fair comparison. The oline didnt start to gel til week 7

[JediXMan]

It took about a month for Luck to shake off the rust from missing the previous season. 

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Not a fair comparison. The oline didnt start to gel til week 7

Not just that. Luck was also obviously not 100% with his arm. What we are practically doing is taking one of Luck's worst stretches and comparing it to Brissett's best stretch... And we are still 1.5ppg and 500 yards in 6 games short. Again... This is not a comparison Brissett fans should be making. It's not doing Brissett any favors.

[Calmack]

Id like to eventually see the comparison from week 7 thru the end of the season. Luck took off and balled out during that time. Jacoby will probably maintian his steady pace

[Calmack]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Not just that. Luck was also obviously not 100% with his arm. What we are practically doing is taking one of Luck's worst stretches and comparing it to Brissett's best stretch... And we are still 1.5ppg and 500 yards in 6 games short. Again... This is not a comparison Brissett fans should be making. It's not doing Brissett any favors.

Grasping at whatever they can to somehow put Brisset anywhere near Lucks level.

 

Don't get me wrong. I like Brisset. But we went from a bonafide contender to maybe a wild-card win after Lucks retirement.

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 minutes ago, Calmack said:

Grasping at whatever they can to somehow put Brisset anywhere near Lucks level.

 

Don't get me wrong. I like Brisset. But we went from a bonafide contender to maybe a wild-card win after Lucks retirement.

The jury is still out on how far this team can go with Brissett but I will agree Andrew Luck is the better QB.

[EastStreet]

Yup, not a great comparison. Not only was the OL playing musical chairs the first half of the season and Luck coming back from a year off, but also Mack was out 5 games. Luck was really the only offense we had. Heck, he even was the leading rusher one of those games. We also played the last 2 SB champions in the first 5 weeks.

 

Best comparison will be the last 8 games of both seasons. Everyone will be gelled, everyone will have chemistry with their QBs, etc..

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

IT will be interesting to compare these during the second half of the season when we went on that winning streak.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

54 minutes ago, Calmack said:

Grasping at whatever they can to somehow put Brisset anywhere near Lucks level.

 

Don't get me wrong. I like Brisset. But we went from a bonafide contender to maybe a wild-card win after Lucks retirement.

I don’t think anyone is trying to say that. It really is a testament to Reich if he keeps stats from last year and this year close through 16 games. It also goes to show JB is a pretty darn good QB if the stats stay close.  It’s ok to say JB is a really good QB. That doesn’t mean we think he is as good as Luck. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

59 minutes ago, Calmack said:

Id like to eventually see the comparison from week 7 thru the end of the season. Luck took off and balled out during that time. Jacoby will probably maintian his steady pace

I think you might be shocked that lucks yards per game might of went down the second half when we started running really well. 

[Calmack]

14 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think you might be shocked that lucks yards per game might of went down the second half when we started running really well. 

YPG is literally the most meaningless stat and I couldn't care less if it went down. Im sure passer rating, comp %, and TD/INT ratio will be far better..

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, Calmack said:

YPG is literally the most meaningless stat and I couldn't care less if it went down. Im sure passer rating, comp %, and TD/INT ratio will be far better..

Well right now Jacoby is on pace to have right around the same amount of TD and fewer INT then Luck. His completion % is better then Rodgers. 

 

[Calmack]

26 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I don’t think anyone is trying to say that. It really is a testament to Reich if he keeps stats from last year and this year close through 16 games. It also goes to show JB is a pretty darn good QB if the stats stay close.  It’s ok to say JB is a really good QB. That doesn’t mean we think he is as good as Luck. 

I have seen it. Some even saying they prefer Brisset to Luck. It's hilarious. At some point people are going to have to unglue their eyes from the stat book and just see the huge chasm of QB play between Luck and Brissett. This year, JBs stats are benefiting greatly by a completely gelled dominant Oline, solid running game, and amazing playcalling/scheming to get guys running free (like against Houston). Point blank, I like Brissett. Just not as much as others do...

[Calmack]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

Well right now Jacoby is on pace to have right around the same amount of TD and fewer INT then Luck. His completion % is better then Rodgers. 

 

Do your eyes, when watching their games, tell you he's about the same QB Luck was, just because of stats? I swear, we used "stats don't tell the whole story" when backing up Luck against Wilson debates, even though Wilson clearly had way better stats and played just as well, if not better, than Luck. Now, we choose to ignore the eye test and look at stats and say "oh well he's on pace to match his TDs and/or have a higher rating etc" when comparing Brisset to Luck. 

[jvan1973]

3 minutes ago, Calmack said:

I have seen it. Some even saying they prefer Brisset to Luck. It's hilarious. At some point people are going to have to unglue their eyes from the stat book and just see the huge chasm of QB play between Luck and Brissett. This years QB stats are benefiting greatly by a completely gelled dominant Oline, solid running game, and amazing playcalling/scheming to get guys running free (like against Houston). Point blank, I like Brissett. Just not as much as others do...

It doesn't matter,   Luck retired, brissett didn't. 

[MacDee1975]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Why do we keep doing this when we all thought Luck's arm was shot the first 4-5 weeks of the season while he was getting it back in shape after returning from his injury and while we were trying to avoid killing Luck because neither AC nor Smith were yet staring and the run game was non-existent?

 

Numbers are good to have, numbers without context are useless. What's this incessant desire to prove Jacoby is playing close to Luck's level? He's not. And he very likely never will. Believe me, this is NOT a comparison you will want to be making in the long run. Nothing good will come of it for Brissett. Let Brissett succeed or fail on his own terms. 

we knew it wasn’t shot, though, when in week 4 he threw it 62 times for 464 yards.

[Calmack]

Just now, jvan1973 said:

It doesn't matter,   Luck retired, brissett didn't. 

I'm aware of that. Go on? 

[jvan1973]

1 minute ago, Calmack said:

I'm aware of that. Go on? 

Whether or not Brissett is or isn't better than Luck.     Luck isn't our qb,  brissett is

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, Calmack said:

Do your eyes, when watching their games, tell you he's about the same QB Luck was, just because of stats? I swear, we used "stats don't tell the whole story" when backing up Luck against Wilson debates, even though Wilson clearly had way better stats and played just as well, if not better, than Luck. Now, we choose to ignore the eye test and look at stats and say "oh well he's on pace to match his TDs and/or have a higher rating etc" when comparing Brisset to Luck. 

To tell you the truth besides a few deep balls I don’t see much difference in this offense.

[Calmack]

4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

To tell you the truth besides a few deep balls I don’t see much difference in this offense.

This offense if humming I agree. But it isn't the QB play anymore that's carrying us. And that's fine

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We are 5th in red zone efficiency. We are also at about the same % on converting third downs as we were last year. Once Mack got back and got going we were very balanced and Luck didn’t put up huge numbers. The three games that come to mind are the cowboys, titans, and the playoff game with the Texans. 

[Creekside]

27 minutes ago, Calmack said:

I have seen it. Some even saying they prefer Brisset to Luck. It's hilarious.

 

27 minutes ago, Calmack said:

 

 

24 minutes ago, Calmack said:

 

 

 

 

 

I will admit I prefer Brissett to Luck as the Colts QB now. Not just because of stats, but also by what I see. I don't care if anyone thinks I'm stupid. It's just a game.

 

In my opinion Luck did some things better than Brissett, and Brissett does some things better than Luck. I believed going into the season that Brissett would play well based on what I saw in 2017 when the Colts were losers. I thought Brissett played well on a bad team. I thought if he had a good team, he could be really good.

 

Memories are selective. There were more than just a couple of games where Luck did not play well, including his last game.

 

I liked Luck. But I'm actually glad he retired. Jacoby Brissett, in my opinion is the right QB for this team.

 

 

[Dingus McGirt]

4-2 ... the only numbers that matter.

[EastStreet]

49 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think you might be shocked that lucks yards per game might of went down the second half when we started running really well. 

I don't think so, but I didn't do the math. Luck had 3 sub 200 games in the first half of the seson, and only one in the last half. Our O in general went up just about every place once the OL settled and Mack came back and made us two dimensional. 

[stitches]

26 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

we knew it wasn’t shot, though, when in week 4 he threw it 62 times for 464 yards.

It wasn't about the number of throws. He was throwing a ton from game 1.... It was about the average depth of target and about the velocity on his balls on any throw over 15 yards dowfield...he was dinking and dunking a ton and whenever he tried some more ambitious passes the ball seemed to float on him and lack velocity. 

[Calmack]

8 minutes ago, egg said:

 

I will admit I prefer Brissett to Luck as the Colts QB now. Not just because of stats, but also by what I see. I don't care if anyone thinks I'm stupid. It's just a game.

 

Good reasoning and I respect your opinion. 

 

However, if/when we're in the playoffs and we need that QB who can make that 0.5% throw, use amazing pocket presence to avoid a surefire sack, or will his team to a win (ex. KC playoff game) I have no faith in Brissett to do that. At least not yet. Just know game managers can excellent games as well. Just as superstar QBs can have bad games. We lost the superstar QB

[EastStreet]

45 minutes ago, Calmack said:

YPG is literally the most meaningless stat and I couldn't care less if it went down. Im sure passer rating, comp %, and TD/INT ratio will be far better..

 

I don't really care about YPG either, so long as it's a non-impact to outcome. JB's QBR right now is 10+ pts lower than Luck's last year, so JB does have a way to go to make that up.

 

JB's TD/INT ratio, and INT/Attempt ratio is better than Luck's last year, but Luck played 4 teams in the top 10 (INTs) in the first half of the season, while JB hasn't played one team in the top 10 yet.

 

Completion % is close with Luck a little higher, but we should frankly expect a higher completion % given JB is throwing much more shallow passes than Luck. 

 

Frankly I just want to see JB improve in a few areas, and ultimately I want to progress to the AFC championship. If we do that, I'll be happy.

[stitches]

24 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

We are 5th in red zone efficiency. We are also at about the same % on converting third downs as we were last year. Once Mack got back and got going we were very balanced and Luck didn’t put up huge numbers. The three games that come to mind are the cowboys, titans, and the playoff game with the Texans. 

He had 2187 yards in the first 8 games and 2403 in the second half. This is not where the bigger and much more important difference is though. The more important difference was in his yards per attempt - under 6.5 in the first half and over 8 in the second half.

[Tsarquise]

2 hours ago, JediXMan said:

It took about a month for Luck to shake off the rust from missing the previous season. 

Was he rusty when he was shut out for a whole game and a half against the Jags last year? He looked really rusty against the Chiefs. 

[shasta519]

You can't really compare the two sets of games...Luck was new to the scheme and fresh off an 18-month shoulder injury...and the OL hadn't gelled.

 

I get the sample size of games is the same...but it's still arbitrary...and it conveniently leaves out that Luck (and the offense) was All Pro over the following 5 games (games 7-11)...putting up 35 pts/game. I am going to assume there won't be one of these comp threads after the next five game stretch.

 

 

 

 

[Tsarquise]

The excuses made for Luck are phenomenal. 

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I don't really care about YPG either, so long as it's a non-impact to outcome. JB's QBR right now is 10+ pts lower than Luck's last year, so JB does have a way to go to make that up.

 

JB's TD/INT ratio, and INT/Attempt ratio is better than Luck's last year, but Luck played 4 teams in the top 10 (INTs) in the first half of the season, while JB hasn't played one team in the top 10 yet.

 

Completion % is close with Luck a little higher, but we should frankly expect a higher completion % given JB is throwing much more shallow passes than Luck. 

 

Frankly I just want to see JB improve in a few areas, and ultimately I want to progress to the AFC championship. If we do that, I'll be happy.

IMO this is not the main reason for Brissett having lower INT/Attempt and TD/INT... Brissett is just safer with the ball. I have no problem saying that. The problem is this is also a symptom of some negatives for Brissett too - extremely conservative, very little playmaking and big time throws, missing throws that need to be made, lack of anticipation throwing, etc...

[shasta519]

6 minutes ago, Tsarquise said:

Was he rusty when he was shut out for a whole game and a half against the Jags last year? He looked really rusty against the Chiefs. 

 

Definitely fatigued for sure...though he played well against TEN and HOU. Hard to be in 18-game shape after that layoff. And for all we know...he knew his shoulder couldn't hold up...and here we are. Lots of unanswered questions with Luck.