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Four2itus

Colts Texans after the bye

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I'm not sure I would (or will) bet on the game.  I don't feel comfortable going either way.  

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14 hours ago, aaron11 said:

thats not right, the spread is colts by 1 on most books

 

i saw one at .5, and some dont like to list a spread of zero and dont have it.  have not seen any that favor the texans 

ESPN had the Texans a slight favorite

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On 10/13/2019 at 10:30 PM, indyagent17 said:

He takes a lot of sacks 

Look at Watsons hit and sack numbers in his last two games. He is fully protected now.

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39 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

The opening line was -1.5 to -2.5 depending on the service. Most have moved to -1, meaning the money has been going to Houston.


Thank you.. not a huge jump. 

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Thank you.. not a huge jump. 

 

Nope not at all.

I wouldn't doubt if it went to pick'em though tonight or tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, SteelCityColt said:


I’m also fairly sure that’s not how it works. 
 

American spreads are slightly weirder, but here they’ll set the market at the most likely result, put a margin either side (which is their profit in effect) and then the market moves in line with amounts wagered on buy/sell. 
 

Using sports books to predict games is nonsensical, two different things.

Wait, what?  Your certain that what I say is NOT how it works ... that the sports books DON’T want balanced wagering?

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1 minute ago, rockywoj said:

Wait, what?  Your certain that what I say is NOT how it works ... that the sports books DON’T want balanced wagering?


Are you talking about the spread being near even.. or the total amount being wagered on each outcome equal? 

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Are you talking about the spread being near even.. or the total amount being wagered on each outcome equal? 

I am talking about the purpose of the spread ... my saying that the goal of the spread is to create balanced action.  
 

per my Google research, as well as my common sense understanding  ...

 

“A point spread in sports is a figure set by oddsmakers to provide an advantage or disadvantage based on the margin of victory or defeat for a given team. The “favorite” team (labeled with a “-” sign) would be at the disadvantage as they would need to win the game by a set number of points while the “underdog” team (labeled with a “+” sign) would be given an advantage to not lose the game by a set number of points. The reason oddsmakers do this is to provide betting interest for both sides due to one team typically being better than the other.

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47 minutes ago, King Colt said:

ESPN had the Texans a slight favorite

oh ok, i didnt see that was looking at the gambling sites

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3 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

I am talking about the purpose of the spread ... my saying that the goal of the spread is to create balanced action.  
 

per my Google research, as well as my common sense understanding  ...

 

“A point spread in sports is a figure set by oddsmakers to provide an advantage or disadvantage based on the margin of victory or defeat for a given team. The “favorite” team (labeled with a “-” sign) would be at the disadvantage as they would need to win the game by a set number of points while the “underdog” team (labeled with a “+” sign) would be given an advantage to not lose the game by a set number of points. The reason oddsmakers do this is to provide betting interest for both sides due to one team typically being better than the other.


Okay as in the purpose is to generate equal betting on both sides (risk reduction)? 
 

I misunderstood your point as you meaning getting the spread as close to even. My apologies. 
 

Here spreads have built in margin as well that players even more to the bookmakers. So we’d probably have Texans winning 0.5-1 or the like. Built in 0.5 point profit margin. 

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3 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:


Okay as in the purpose is to generate equal betting on both sides (risk reduction)? 
 

I misunderstood your point as you meaning getting the spread as close to even. My apologies. 
 

Here spreads have built in margin as well that players even more to the bookmakers. So we’d probably have Texans winning 0.5-1 or the like. Built in 0.5 point profit margin. 

Yeah no ... the spread is to create equal betting.  So like the Pats are seeing 15+ points being given against weak teams, that is so people will hopefully bet on the weak team in volume to match the bets on the Pats.  Without spreads, the books would take a beating because straight up bets are generally pretty easy to get correct 75% or more of the time. 

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There is a note in this how the Texans plan on taking TY out of the game.

 

 

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4 hours ago, King Colt said:

Look at Watsons hit and sack numbers in his last two games. He is fully protected now.

Let's hope Sunday we hit him good

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Having watched Houston the past few weeks...their interior DL and LB's are quite good vs the run.

We will not be able to just run and pound it down their throats.

Reich has to plan to throw the ball and mix in the run.

Hopefully we can pass protect. JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus are probably the best two pass rushers our O-line has faced so far this year.

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Colin is picking the colts. But it is what he says here. He says structurally the colts are the closet to NE In the entire league.

 

 

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23 hours ago, King Colt said:

Look at Watsons hit and sack numbers in his last two games. He is fully protected now.

Uh, look at who they played the last two games....

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On 10/17/2019 at 1:49 PM, Chloe6124 said:

 

ITS going to be ingesting to see if their oline is fixed. They played Atlanta and the chiefs in the last two games. They gave up 6 sacks to Carolina before those two games.

At least four if not five of those sacks were Watson's fault, not the oline. He was holding onto the ball far too long looking for homeruns instead of taking what the defense was giving him. The last two weeks he did a much better job of hitting his quick reads and simply moving the chains.

It's been great to watch.

Stay injury free Colts but go Texans! 

 

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On 10/13/2019 at 11:29 PM, IndySouthsider said:

He’s a very good QB, but he’s not a generational type like PM, TB, AL, or AR.

Luck’s  career didn’t live up to all that generational draft hype.  He never saw a Super Bowl and was throwing double digit interceptions most seasons.  He was good but not on the level as the other guys on your list when the totality of his career is considered.  Watson has a chance to potentially surpass Luck.  I’d put Russell Wilson on your list before I would Andrew Luck.  Just saying. 

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21 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

Luck’s  career didn’t live up to all that generational draft hype.  He never saw a Super Bowl and was throwing double digit interceptions most seasons.  He was good but not on the level as the other guys on your list when the totality of his career is considered.  Watson has a chance to potentially surpass Luck.  I’d put Russell Wilson on your list before I would Andrew Luck.  Just saying. 

When Russell and Watson take crappy team to the playoffs I will. Most of Lucks teams had no business winning football games.

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I'll never understand the idea of a team not being as good as some say because they have not played any good teams. Are they supposed to lose to bad teams? All teams plan their game according to the coming opposition. If NE beats a winless team do they suck? Teams don't make their schedules. I get why it is said but to grade a team as questionable because they have beaten lesser teams is stupid. So a team goes undefeated for the season but no one can they are the best because half of their victories were against teams with below .500 records. Dumb.

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44 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

Luck’s  career didn’t live up to all that generational draft hype.  He never saw a Super Bowl and was throwing double digit interceptions most seasons.  He was good but not on the level as the other guys on your list when the totality of his career is considered.  Watson has a chance to potentially surpass Luck.  I’d put Russell Wilson on your list before I would Andrew Luck.  Just saying. 

That’s because his organization failed him....hard to reach a SB when your GM is trading 1st rounders for Trent Richardson, drafting Philip Dorsetts over Landon Collins and signing zombie Andre Johnsons to big FA deals...even then he dragged those teams to championship games. Blaming their shortcoming on him is like blaming Peyton Manning for his playoff record. It’s a false narrative.

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6 minutes ago, colt18 said:

That’s because his organization failed him....hard to reach a SB when your GM is trading 1st rounders for Trent Richardson, drafting Philip Dorsetts over Landon Collins and signing zombie Andre Johnsons to big FA deals...even then he dragged those teams to championship games. Blaming their shortcoming on him is like blaming Peyton Manning for his playoff record. It’s a false narrative.

Dorsett is having a pretty good year in NE.... Not the worst draft decision of the Grigson years.

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37 minutes ago, IndySouthsider said:

When Russell and Watson take crappy team to the playoffs I will. Most of Lucks teams had no business winning football games.

You must not of seen the Seahawks the year Russell accounted for 85% of their offensive yards.

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1 hour ago, Coltsman1788 said:

Luck’s  career didn’t live up to all that generational draft hype.  He never saw a Super Bowl and was throwing double digit interceptions most seasons.  He was good but not on the level as the other guys on your list when the totality of his career is considered.  Watson has a chance to potentially surpass Luck.  I’d put Russell Wilson on your list before I would Andrew Luck.  Just saying. 


Again, we threw loads, ergo more interception volume. Go actually look at his INT%. 

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1 hour ago, macho GRANDE said:

At least four if not five of those sacks were Watson's fault, not the oline. He was holding onto the ball far too long looking for homeruns instead of taking what the defense was giving him. The last two weeks he did a much better job of hitting his quick reads and simply moving the chains.

It's been great to watch.

Stay injury free Colts but go Texans! 

 

This is a very exciting match. So many ways it could go. We have some fairly significant injuries, but that is the NFL. Our head coach is as good at putting rookies and back ups in a position to succeed as I have seen from any Colts head coach. Your team is pretty danged balanced. With all the injuries, glad this one is at the Oilcan. 

 

Stay injury free Texans, but Go Colts!!!

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Dorsett is having a pretty good year in NE.... Not the worst draft decision of the Grigson years.

Because they utilize him correctly. They didn’t draft a small speedy WR when they needed defense.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Dorsett is having a pretty good year in NE.... Not the worst draft decision of the Grigson years.

He has Tom Brady throwing him the ball and the Patriots would've won the SB without him last season. He had very little to do with them winning the SB. Put Dorsett on the Titans for example and IMO he would stink. So far we got the better of the trade as Brissett is proven to be a legit average to above average starting QB after losing someone like Luck. 

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16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

He has Tom Brady throwing him the ball and the Patriots would've won the SB without him last season. He had very little to do with them winning the SB. Put Dorsett on the Titans for example and IMO he would stink. So far we got the better of the trade as Brissett is proven to be a legit average to above average starting QB after losing someone like Luck. 

He had Luck throwing him the ball his second year and had 500+ yards, so I wouldn't say he's chopped meat. Right now, JB has a sub 50 QBR, is playing behind one of the best OLs in the league, is not being asked to do much, and have played teams with a combined record of 13-17. I think a lot of QBs could pretty well in that environment. I'm not saying JB is bad, PD is great, or PD is better than JB, or anyone got the better end of the deal. It's too early to make any call on JB.

 

Games like tomorrow and the last 7 games of the year will tell us what we need to know.

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51 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

He had Luck throwing him the ball his second year and had 500+ yards, so I wouldn't say he's chopped meat. Right now, JB has a sub 50 QBR, is playing behind one of the best OLs in the league, is not being asked to do much, and have played teams with a combined record of 13-17. I think a lot of QBs could pretty well in that environment. I'm not saying JB is bad, PD is great, or PD is better than JB, or anyone got the better end of the deal. It's too early to make any call on JB.

 

Games like tomorrow and the last 7 games of the year will tell us what we need to know.

The Patriots opponents have a combined record of 10-23 so far, should we hold that against Tom Brady? This has been going on for years in here, everytime we play well or have a good season it is because our opponents suck and not that we played good by some posters in here. The Patriots have played nobody expect the Bills and we all know the Patriots are good anyway. Every QB on the opposing team has been better than JB that we have played except for Mariota. Rivers is better and we played them evenly, we lost to Carr, we beat Ryan and Mahomes. IMO the Chargers and Falcons are better than their records show.  

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9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The Patriots opponents have a combined record of 10-23 so far, should we hold that against Tom Brady? This has been going on for years in here, everytime we play well or have a good season it is because our opponents suck and not that we played good by some posters in here. The Patriots have played nobody expect the Bills and we all know the Patriots are good anyway. Every QB on the opposing team has been better than JB that we have played except for Mariota. Rivers is better and we played them evenly, we lost to Carr, we beat Ryan and Mahomes. IMO the Chargers and Falcons are better than their records show.  

 

I absolutely take the Pat's opponent's schedule into account when comparing them to others. I also take into account their record (6-0) and the fact that they've beat everyone of the bad teams handily. The Pats have a +142 point differential, while we have a -2. In other words, they've smashed their weak schedule, and we're not even in the positive. 

 

Doesn't mean we won't improve. Heck, we might improve and get into a playoff bye situation. But right now it is what it is, and it's they numbers just don't paint a pretty picture. Doesn't mean we won't have a Mona Lisa at the end of the season, just means we have a long way to go.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I absolutely take the Pat's opponent's schedule into account when comparing them to others. I also take into account their record (6-0) and the fact that they've beat everyone of the bad teams handily. The Pats have a +142 point differential, while we have a -2. In other words, they've smashed their weak schedule, and we're not even in the positive. 

 

Doesn't mean we won't improve. Heck, we might improve and get into a playoff bye situation. But right now it is what it is, and it's they numbers just don't paint a pretty picture. Doesn't mean we won't have a Mona Lisa at the end of the season, just means we have a long way to go.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings. That will sway a lot of opinions one way or another. If JB plays bad I will be the 1st to be critical of him, I have no problem with that. If he plays well and we win than I think it is time to say he is legit at this point.

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14 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings. That will sway a lot of opinions one way or another. If JB plays bad I will be the 1st to be critical of him, I have no problem with that. If he plays well and we win than I think it is time to say he is legit at this point.

I posted yesterday that this could be JB's coming out party. He's got a great opportunity tomorrow (and the next 3 games) to be 7-2 going into the last 7 games (which should be a challenge). Houston's DBs are banged up, and they're not very good vs the pass even with their starting DBs. JB could have himself a day.

 

It's the games like tomorrow that can start to erase a lot of the doubt out there. It won't shush all the doubts, but it would be a terrific start. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I posted yesterday that this could be JB's coming out party. He's got a great opportunity tomorrow (and the next 3 games) to be 7-2 going into the last 7 games (which should be a challenge). Houston's DBs are banged up, and they're not very good vs the pass even with their starting DBs. JB could have himself a day.

 

It's the games like tomorrow that can start to erase a lot of the doubt out there. It won't shush all the doubts, but it would be a terrific start. 

Yep, Houston has a good team (at 4-2) with a better QB so if we win tomorrow and JB plays well, than there really won't be much that the JB doubters can say. We will be in 1st place in the South with a win as well at 4-2.

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22 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yep, Houston has a good team (at 4-2) with a better QB so if we win tomorrow and JB plays well, than there really won't be much that the JB doubters can say. We will be in 1st place in the South with a win as well at 4-2.


Agreed. I maintain, despite the misrepresentation of others, I’m perfectly happy to see what Brissett can do. He’s got a lot to like and I’m not exactly going to be unhappy if he shows he is “the guy”. 

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:


Agreed. I maintain, despite the misrepresentation of others, I’m perfectly happy to see what Brissett can do. He’s got a lot to like and I’m not exactly going to be unhappy if he shows he is “the guy”. 

Tomorrow would be a titanic win no doubt about it in how people should think about JB. 

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6 hours ago, Four2itus said:

This is a very exciting match. So many ways it could go. We have some fairly significant injuries, but that is the NFL. Our head coach is as good at putting rookies and back ups in a position to succeed as I have seen from any Colts head coach. Your team is pretty danged balanced. With all the injuries, glad this one is at the Oilcan. 

 

Stay injury free Texans, but Go Colts!!!

Thanks. 

Hopefully we can finally beat brissett smh.

Now I'm off to my texans board 

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On 10/18/2019 at 3:43 PM, Chloe6124 said:

Colin is picking the colts. But it is what he says here. He says structurally the colts are the closet to NE In the entire league.

 

Not a fan of Colin.  He just says the stupidest things and just makes statements with no evidence 

 

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12 hours ago, colt18 said:

That’s because his organization failed him....hard to reach a SB when your GM is trading 1st rounders for Trent Richardson, drafting Philip Dorsetts over Landon Collins and signing zombie Andre Johnsons to big FA deals...even then he dragged those teams to championship games. Blaming their shortcoming on him is like blaming Peyton Manning for his playoff record. It’s a false narrative.

And yet when he finally got an organization that puts the best talent around him he has ever had in his career he quits not wanting to go through a rehab on an injury that the front office admits was small potatoes compared to what he went through with the shoulder.  I don’t really see the other generational talents listed doing that.  Not Peyton, not Brady, etc.  Luck had his best shot to live up to all that hype and bailed on it.  I’m not giving him elite/generational status for that.

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