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Rackeen305

State of the Colts (KC halftime thoughts) - Reloaded

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So I started a great thread during the KC game and I appreciate the posts that were left. I don't know what happened to the original thread? However, For those who would like to share their thoughts. Please do so. Here is what was covered.

 

1) JB and Draft

2) Free Agency

3) Overal team outlook

 

Let's start with 1) JB. I mentioned that if JB continues to develop, then the team would be in great position draft time as they wouldn't need to fall in line as other teams would be vetting for a QB selected high in the draft. Thus we would better utilize the first round and second round picks for efficient and affectively. Targeting a young pass rusher, Dline, Oline, WR, or even a TE...

 

2) Free agency. From the onset, the Colts remain as the top team with the most salary cap space. With JB signing a 2 year 30 mill contract, this is heavily team friendly and signing a QB (Newton, Dak Prescott, etc) in free agency would command $25-$30 mill/year. Savings on not over spending could go towards a premiere pass rusher, DB, or WR.

 

3) Another point was the money commanded by an Andrew Luck versus JB. AL being a 1st round (1 overall) pick would command at a minimum twice as much as JB (Third rounder) salary cap wise. IF JB continues to perform at a starting QB level, the team would greatly benefit and be in better salary cap space than with AL. All of this is contingent on the growth and development of JB. But my emphasis is that would seemed to be an incredible storm at the onset of the season, maybe beneficial long term.

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8 minutes ago, Rackeen305 said:

So I started a great thread during the KC game and I appreciate the posts that were left. I don't know what happened to the original thread? However, For those who would like to share their thoughts. Please do so. Here is what was covered.

 

1) JB and Draft

2) Free Agency

3) Overal team outlook

 

Let's start with 1) JB. I mentioned that if JB continues to develop, then the team would be in great position draft time as they wouldn't need to fall in line as other teams would be vetting for a QB selected high in the draft. Thus we would better utilize the first round and second round picks for efficient and affectively. Targeting a young pass rusher, Dline, Oline, WR, or even a TE...

 

2) Free agency. From the onset, the Colts remain as the top team with the most salary cap space. With JB signing a 2 year 30 mill contract, this is heavily team friendly and signing a QB (Newton, Dak Prescott, etc) in free agency would command $25-$30 mill/year. Savings on not over spending could go towards a premiere pass rusher, DB, or WR.

 

3) Another point was the money commanded by an Andrew Luck versus JB. AL being a 1st round (1 overall) pick would command at a minimum twice as much as JB (Third rounder) salary cap wise. IF JB continues to perform at a starting QB level, the team would greatly benefit and be in better salary cap space than with AL. All of this is contingent on the growth and development of JB. But my emphasis is that would seemed to be an incredible storm at the onset of the season, maybe beneficial long term.

Agreed and so far he has shown a lot of improvement I look forward to the rest of the year with him starting we are in good hands.

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I dont think we need JB to be Luck. As long as he can manage the game which I have full faith on Reich that he can get the best out of him and JB is not a turnover machine. He has shown that he can have 300+ passing yards against ATL, and we can win the game. He has also shown that he can have 150+ passing yards against KC, and we can win the game. As there was a thread that you need Elite QB or Elite Coach or Elite D to win. I am not sure if we will win super bowl with JB, well neither did we win one with Luck and only 1 with manning. So as long as CB get us strong line (DL and OL) i think we can have many winning regular season. If another manning or luck fell in our lap during that time then we are all GUCCI. 

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A few thoughts:

 

1).  I wouldn't want to judge JB on just one season's body of work.  He's locked in to a two season contract at a price that keeps him happy and interested, so let him play it out and make a decision when we have to.  There are always college QBs coming out every year and I don't know if any QB coming out this year is regarded as a special player.

 

2).  Free agency, meaning adding significant players to the team by spending large money in free agency, is a tough one.  Normally a team overpays, so the best time to do that is when we are closer to being a SB contender.  Problem is, we won't really know that until we understand our QB situation better.  The best thing is to just resign our own, namely Kelly.  We won't be signing many more for a while because there appears to be only one player from the 2017 draft who is worth consideration, and just about every other player is still on their rookie contract for a number of years.  Looks like we'll be riding with a lot of cap space for several years.

 

3).  The state of the Colts is good.  Good offense, but seems to lack big play ability, which is needed at times.  The defense is still finding its way.  Lots of cap space and a high second round pick from the Skins provides a goodly amount of capital with which to add needed pieces should the markets align properly.

 

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10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A few thoughts:

 

1).  I wouldn't want to judge JB on just one season's body of work.  He's locked in to a two season contract at a price that keeps him happy and interested, so let him play it out and make a decision when we have to.  There are always college QBs coming out every year and I don't know if any QB coming out this year is regarded as a special player.

 

2).  Free agency, meaning adding significant players to the team by spending large money in free agency, is a tough one.  Normally a team overpays, so the best time to do that is when we are closer to being a SB contender.  Problem is, we won't really know that until we understand our QB situation better.  The best thing is to just resign our own, namely Kelly.  We won't be signing many more for a while because there appears to be only one player from the 2017 draft who is worth consideration, and just about every other player is still on their rookie contract for a number of years.  Looks like we'll be riding with a lot of cap space for several years.

 

3).  The state of the Colts is good.  Good offense, but seems to lack big play ability, which is needed at times.  The defense is still finding its way.  Lots of cap space and a high second round pick from the Skins provides a goodly amount of capital with which to add needed pieces should the markets align properly.

 

That's honestly another reason why I wouldn't jump the gun and dump JB. 

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39 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A few thoughts:

 

1).  I wouldn't want to judge JB on just one season's body of work.  He's locked in to a two season contract at a price that keeps him happy and interested, so let him play it out and make a decision when we have to.  There are always college QBs coming out every year and I don't know if any QB coming out this year is regarded as a special player.

 

2).  Free agency, meaning adding significant players to the team by spending large money in free agency, is a tough one.  Normally a team overpays, so the best time to do that is when we are closer to being a SB contender.  Problem is, we won't really know that until we understand our QB situation better.  The best thing is to just resign our own, namely Kelly.  We won't be signing many more for a while because there appears to be only one player from the 2017 draft who is worth consideration, and just about every other player is still on their rookie contract for a number of years.  Looks like we'll be riding with a lot of cap space for several years.

 

3).  The state of the Colts is good.  Good offense, but seems to lack big play ability, which is needed at times.  The defense is still finding its way.  Lots of cap space and a high second round pick from the Skins provides a goodly amount of capital with which to add needed pieces should the markets align properly.

 

I think if Mack keeps it up this year your going to see him extended. I think he has a chance before hooker or Wilson. Mostly because hooker was a high pick and already making good money. Has to prove he can stay healthy. Mack is making so little compared to what he is doing. They love walker so I could see them extending him. Wilson is still unknown.

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2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think if Mack keeps it up this year your going to see him extended. I think he has a chance before hooker or Wilson. Mostly because hooker was a high pick and already making good money. Has to prove he can stay healthy. Mack is making so little compared to what he is doing. They love walker so I could see them extending him. Wilson is still unknown.

I think we should  draft a second rb. That way if mack gets hurt we have another back that can carry load. Wilkins only seems to do good when he isn't  the feature back

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31 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I think we should  draft a second rb. That way if mack gets hurt we have another back that can carry load. Wilkins only seems to do good when he isn't  the feature back

Disagree. Wilkins looked pretty solid behind that line last year when he started ans is an excellent Byner to Mack....

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42 minutes ago, Scott Pennock said:

Disagree. Wilkins looked pretty solid behind that line last year when he started ans is an excellent Byner to Mack....

He is a good partner  to mack , but in games where he has started without  mack he averages around 3 yards a carry.

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16 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:

So I started a great thread during the KC game and I appreciate the posts that were left. I don't know what happened to the original thread?

 

During games, we only allow posting in the game day topic to avoid a deluge of knee jerk reaction posts.

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10 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think if Mack keeps it up this year your going to see him extended. I think he has a chance before hooker or Wilson. Mostly because hooker was a high pick and already making good money. Has to prove he can stay healthy. Mack is making so little compared to what he is doing. They love walker so I could see them extending him. Wilson is still unknown.

I was thinking in terms of top ten money, but good points Chloe, I had forgotten about Mack.  I'm not sure what kind of contract he'd command.  Saw a report where he took 3.08 seconds on average to reach the LOS, the longest of any NFL RB.  I'm not sure every team likes that running style. 

 

I don't think Walker will command much money, and Wilson even less.

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10 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think if Mack keeps it up this year your going to see him extended.

i could see that, RBs are holding out around the league and Mack is second in carries with a forth round contract.   i dont think he will hold out, but ballard has been taking care of guys out playing their contracts 

 

 

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I wouldn't be on board with paying Mack top money.  I'm still not sure how good he really is.   The team has a great run O-line.  

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10 minutes ago, Myles said:

I wouldn't be on board with paying Mack top money.  I'm still not sure how good he really is.   The team has a great run O-line.  

Every good RB has a great oline. He won’t get zeek money but he is going to be a rich man after this season if he keeps it up. 

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54 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I was thinking in terms of top ten money, but good points Chloe, I had forgotten about Mack.  I'm not sure what kind of contract he'd command.  Saw a report where he took 3.08 seconds on average to reach the LOS, the longest of any NFL RB.  I'm not sure every team likes that running style. 

 

I don't think Walker will command much money, and Wilson even less.

I think Mack has a perfect style for this oline. Your right he wouldn’t fit on any team.

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17 minutes ago, Myles said:

I wouldn't be on board with paying Mack top money.  I'm still not sure how good he really is.   The team has a great run O-line.  

 

He is good but is made to look even better with our O-line. I'd be fine with a 4 year $60 mil. contract for him with half of it guaranteed. It's not Gurley, Bell or Zeke money but plenty close to it. 

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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

He is good but is made to look even better with our O-line. I'd be fine with a 4 year $60 mil. contract for him with half of it guaranteed. It's not Gurley, Bell or Zeke money but plenty close to it. 

I think that would be a good contract  for him. That would keep him here through his prime for a RB. 

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The issue is that Mack plays RB.  There are always draftable rookies coming out of college who can generally play right away.  Not sure about Mack's blocking or pass catching prowess either.  $15 mil a year for 4 years seems high to me, especially with RBs being a high risk for missing time due to injury.

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26 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Every good RB has a great oline. He won’t get zeek money but he is going to be a rich man after this season if he keeps it up. 

 

Not always true. Good Olines tend to lead to good RB production regardless of the RB. Great RBs.... 

JHpcxP.gif

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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The issue is that Mack plays RB.  There are always draftable rookies coming out of college who can generally play right away.  Not sure about Mack's blocking or pass catching prowess either.  $15 mil a year for 4 years seems high to me, especially with RBs being a high risk for missing time due to injury.

 

Agreed Doug, why I think we see more RBs run into the ground on a rookie deal then discarded. 

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11 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Not always true. Good Olines tend to lead to good RB production regardless of the RB. Great RBs.... 

JHpcxP.gif

Isn’t that what I said. At least that is what I meant.

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1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

Isn’t that what I said. At least that is what I meant.

 

You said every good RB had a good oline. That's not true. Some great RBs have played behind garbage lines and been productive still. 

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Four years would take Mack right at about 27 or 28. I didn’t pay much attention in 2017 to the colts but from what I read he didn’t have many carries. So if that’s true than he had a  year with not much action. 

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1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

i could see that, RBs are holding out around the league and Mack is second in carries with a forth round contract.   i dont think he will hold out, but ballard has been taking care of guys out playing their contracts 

 

 

That will eventually catch up to us in terms of losing out on cap space but it's probably still a good thing on the whole.  A team whose GM has their back tends to play with more confidence, and we need every edge we can get right now

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27 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 Not sure about Mack's blocking or pass catching prowess either. 

you should be.  Mack is solid on the blitz pickup and has 7 catches on 9 targets so far this season.  That's not shabby for a RB

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46 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Agreed Doug, why I think we see more RBs run into the ground on a rookie deal then discarded. 

 

Asking rate will be high due to market values. With increasing cap values, I do not think $15 mil. per year would be too much when his contract is due. We can add those as incentives too, such as $12 mil. per year plus $2 mil. per year if he plays 12 games at least, plus $1 mil. per year if he plays all games.

 

Or we can do something like 4 years $55 mil. with $25 mil. guaranteed or 5 years $60 mil. with $30 mil. guaranteed, and let him choose. Both per year amounts and guaranteed amounts will still be less than what Gurley, Bell and Zeke got. 

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In a way the way our oline plays Mack might have more longevity. He gets lots of big holes and doesn’t get hit as much if it was a bad oline. After that run Sunday everyone was saying he looked like Bell. It’s not really fair to make him play on 700k next year if he ends up in the top 5 RB. Right now four of the top five backs are all from the 2017 class. I think Ballard will take care of him. He is starting to look like a elite RB. Ballard is going to be handing out a lot of cash after this season to several players.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 Not sure about Mack's blocking 

 

Pay attention next game and you will see that he is very good in pass protection.

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13 minutes ago, egg said:

 

Pay attention next game and you will see that he is very good in pass protection.

I think it was more about blocking and catching opportunities than it was ability.  Not sure how to compare his sample size to all the other RBs sample sizes and monetize it into how a GM might make a contract offer.  Too many moving parts for me to worry about too much.  I was just thinking that the proposed straight 4 year commitment seemed excessive. 

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13 hours ago, Stephen said:

He is a good partner  to mack , but in games where he has started without  mack he averages around 3 yards a carry.

He started game 1, 3 and 4 last year.

No Castonzo yet

No Smith yet

No Glowinski yet

 

They couldn't block for anyone early in the season. 

 

I believe he is a very competent back and could be a 1000 yard runner just as Mack will most assuredly will be this year. 

 

But as a duo, they complement each other very well.

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