I hope that Drew Brees makes it to the Super Bowl next year and loses a shootout to the Colts. If that can't happen then I would love to see him win another Super Bowl. He is a great player and from everything I've ever seen and heard is just as good of a person off the field as he is on it. Good luck in 2020 Drew!
I agree on a lot of what you have to say. IMO, the RB market right now is of extremes in the top 15 (contract wise). Knowing though what has happened to a lot of guys who got big dollars and didn't perform or simply fell apart, I don't think either side (team or RBs) assume anything is a home run sure thing situation unless they are top of the heap. And Mack isn't at the top. He's done good behind a great OL, but isn't top 10 in yards from scrimmage.
Personally, I'd offer something modest, higher on guarantees. Even at 4x7 for example, that's life changing money if structured to the advantage of the RB. If that doesn't work, then I'd ride out 2020 and get one more year of high value. I think we'll see some market correction for sure, but I also think we'll see rooks continue to somewhat dominate production, which will continue to make the $/production ratio look crazy.
And I'm OK if we do what some teams do, which is draft 2nd to 5th round RB every 3-4 years. But I also wouldn't lose sleep if they offered what you suggest, with protections to the team. Honestly nothing is going to concern me right now given our cap situation. And I do like Mack, and would love to have him back.
If he does this there will be a frenzy of teams trying to trade up to that number one spot. Bengals wouldn’t want to drop to far so they could still get a QB. I always thought it would probably be smart to trade that pick and move down a few spots. Get some more draft picks and still get a QB.