Week 4 impressions: Brissett

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Andy Dalton?

 

 

I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. 

 

There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). 

 

Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now. 

[Imgrandojji]

2 minutes ago, 912Colts said:

lol, nice video. 

 

Or we could be the Dolphins. They've got a plan. 

 

It does some what fall on Ballard. The team was built around Luck. Sort of like how Polian built the old team around Manning. Not Ballard's fault the franchise QB decided to retire though. 

 

Extremely defensive about someone stating their opinion. Brissett is by far mediocre in my eyes. Obviously not in yours. Stats are stats & can be bent to argue any opinion. My eyes tell me what I need to know.   

mediocre is simply the wrong word for Brissett.  The word implies that the guy is below average.  And he simply isn't.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, 912Colts said:

lol, nice video. 

 

Or we could be the Dolphins. They've got a plan. 

 

It does some what fall on Ballard. The team was built around Luck. Sort of like how Polian built the old team around Manning. Not Ballard's fault the franchise QB decided to retire though. 

 

Extremely defensive about someone stating their opinion. Brissett is by far mediocre in my eyes. Obviously not in yours. Stats are stats & can be bent to argue any opinion. My eyes tell me what I need to know.   

LOl. So you want to trade Nelson and Leonard to get all these picks so we can tank. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. 

 

There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). 

 

Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now. 

Maybe it wasn’t lucks shoulder. Maybe it was simply getting Luck integrated into Reichs system. No one is disagreeing he needs to improve. But the fact he can’t is dumb to say.

[Imgrandojji]

The Dolphins have had a plan for at least the last 15 years.

 

Tanking is dangerous, especially when you're not all that good to begin with.  you need to have infrastructure like veteran players, good coaching and high morale to compete, and when you tank you tear all that down in the theory that it will be easy to replace. 

 

Not always true.  Ask the Dolphins.  Ask the Browns.  Ask the Jets.

 

Tanking is extremely risky.  It can pay off, but it can also foster a losing culture and that's the last thing we want.  We've all seen it go both ways.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. 

 

There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). 

 

Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now. 

 

Andrew's recovering arm strength is no more of an excuse than Brissett being thrusted into the starting role with Luck's sudden retirement 2 weeks prior to the season. Does that stat line mean that Brissett is a better QB talent than Andrew Luck? Of course not, & I'm not suggesting that he is, but I'm not going to ignore a sample size worth 25% of the season either.

[El Potro]

Just now, Imgrandojji said:

mediocre is simply the wrong word for Brissett.  The word implies that the guy is below average.  And he simply isn't.

Not based on these 4 games. But career wise yes he is. 

 

Since being a Colt career wise he's got 27 total TD's & 19 turn overs while averaging 220 yards a game. 

 

Definitely not above average. 

 

IF his projections stay what they are he'll average 40 TD's, which would be great, but is highly unlikely. Especially with a hobbled Hilton. 

[Myles]

40 minutes ago, 912Colts said:

I understand what you're getting at, but that's a lot of ifs that could be said the opposite way also. I'm just not optimistic about this team. It was built around Luck & Jacoby isn't Andrew. It's not his fault, but it is what it is. Frank is doing great with what he has to work with. But at the beginning of the year Frank even stated Jacoby is a Top 20 QB. That's like saying he's equivalent to Andy Dalton. Good grief. But I loved Frank's honesty. 

Last year should have at least shown us that you don't throw in the towel too soon. Yes, they had Luck, but they were 1-5 and many here were wanting them to tank for a higher draft pick.  They went on to win a playoff game.   Sometimes teams come together.   If we were 1-5 with Brissett, I may be on the tanking bandwagon, but we are 2-2 and should be 3-1.   

[Steamboat_Shaun]

23 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Andy dalton hasn’t been that bad. He has no team around him. A good organization can make or break any QB.

 

The Bengals would be wise to trade him now. They're either gonna get him injured behind that line, or things will go just bad enough that he won't want to re-sign with them in the offseason.

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Andrew's recovering arm strength is no more of an excuse than Brissett being thrusted into the starting role with Luck's sudden retirement 2 weeks prior to the season. Does that stat line mean that Brissett is a better QB talent than Andrew Luck? Of course not, & I'm not suggesting that he is, but I'm not going to ignore a sample size worth 25% of the season either.

Brissett got about 100% of QB1 snaps in training camp and pre-season. Unlike Luck did last year. Again... this is NOT about the stats. Watch him play and watch the type of throws he makes and the types of throws he doesn't make and the reason for it. We can actually see those things on the tape. We can see him locking into his first read while huge TD throws on the other side of the field are available, we can see him missing anticipation throws that he needs to make, etc. We can actually have a pretty good idea of whether the type of performance he's putting in now is because he was thrusted into the starting lineup 2 weeks before the season started(even though for all intents and purposes he was QB1 for the Colts since March), or because of the way he sees the field or because of things he's got to improve on going forward. 

[Myles]

5 minutes ago, 912Colts said:

Not based on these 4 games. But career wise yes he is. 

 

Since being a Colt career wise he's got 27 total TD's & 19 turn overs while averaging 220 yards a game. 

 

Definitely not above average. 

 

IF his projections stay what they are he'll average 40 TD's, which would be great, but is highly unlikely. Especially with a hobbled Hilton. 

In this offense he has 10 TD's and 2 INT's.   Over 102 rating.   I'll take relevant numbers more seriously.  Tom Brady had 18 TD's and 16 turnovers in his first season starting with the Patriots.   Brissett is no Brady, but he's playing well enough to finish this season without the Colts needing to tank.

 

 

[Myles]

3 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

The Bengals would be wise to trade him now. They're either gonna get him injured behind that line, or things will go just bad enough that he won't want to re-sign with them in the offseason.

I don't think anyone wants Dalton.

[El Potro]

Just now, Myles said:

Last year should have at least shown us that you don't throw in the towel too soon. Yes, they had Luck, but they were 1-5 and many here were wanting them to tank for a higher draft pick.  They went on to win a playoff game.   Sometimes teams come together.   If we were 1-5 with Brissett, I may be on the tanking bandwagon, but we are 2-2 and should be 3-1.   

Last year I was watching that Bills game intensely. I didn't ever throw the towel in last year, but that's because of Andrew and his god given ability that we've all seen on full display. I haven't seen even a glimpse of something similar from Brissett. 

 

I'll be honest, I threw in the towel this year when I got the alert from Adam Schefter that Luck was retiring. I had Superbowl aspirations for the team that came crumbling down, like I'm sure many of us had. Idk how everybody jumped on Brissett after 2017. I understand believing in Reich and Ballard, but not Brissett. Y'all do y'all, we're just hoping for different out comes.  

[Steamboat_Shaun]

Just now, stitches said:

We can see him locking into his first read while huge TD throws on the other side of the field are available, we can see him missing anticipation throws that he needs to make, etc.

 

The biggest knocks on Luck for like the 4 first years of his career were his inability to diagnose coverages presnap, locking onto TY Hilton as his initial read, & holding onto the ball too long. I fully expect to see another young QB struggle with the same issues.

 

My stance on Jacoby is that I don't expect a 2nd year starter to play like a 10 year veteran, but if he's producing at the level that Brissett currently is, while progressing a little each week, I'm going to view that as a positive.

[stitches]

29 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

mediocre is simply the wrong word for Brissett.  The word implies that the guy is below average.  And he simply isn't.

Mediocre is a weird word and means different things to different people. I have to admit I've used it for Brissett, but I realize it caries much harsher connotation than what I mean by it. I think he's been about average so far this season, but a lot of it has to do with the way he's performing in the red zone. I don't expect this to continue so I kind of expect him to be slightly 'below average'... this might mean he's still in the 16-20 range, but those are largely meaningless designations. At any time in the league you might have 5 or 25 QBs that might be able to get you to the promised land(i.e. have good enough accuracy/playmaking ability to elevate the team in the playoffs). When I say mediocre I distinctly don't mean bad. I think the best description for what I mean by it is "OK, but not good enough" for a good shot at a long playoff run. 

[El Potro]

Just now, Myles said:

In this offense he has 10 TD's and 2 INT's.   Over 102 rating.   I'll take relevant numbers more seriously.  Tom Brady had 18 TD's and 16 turnovers in his first season starting with the Patriots.   Brissett is no Brady, but he's playing well enough to finish this season without the Colts needing to tank.

 

 

I live in Georgia and watch the Falcons frequently. Their secondary is atrocious. So I can't put too much stock in that game. He needs to do it against a better defense. 

[Myles]

11 minutes ago, 912Colts said:

Last year I was watching that Bills game intensely. I didn't ever throw the towel in last year, but that's because of Andrew and his god given ability that we've all seen on full display. I haven't seen even a glimpse of something similar from Brissett. 

 

I'll be honest, I threw in the towel this year when I got the alert from Adam Schefter that Luck was retiring. I had Superbowl aspirations for the team that came crumbling down, like I'm sure many of us had. Idk how everybody jumped on Brissett after 2017. I understand believing in Reich and Ballard, but not Brissett. Y'all do y'all, we're just hoping for different out comes.  

OK, so you are rooting for the Colts to lose.   That seems like an odd thing to do if you are really a fan.   They are 2-2 and tied for the lead in the division.    They have stud players who will be coming back from injury.  They have a real chance to make the playoffs.  Once in, anything can happen.  Even with just an above average QB, I hope they make the playoffs.   The experience alone is beneficial.  

[Superman]

1 hour ago, GoatBeard said:

You're making the ultimate strawman. Nobody has suggested he is an elite QB right now, so of course he isnt displaying it. What a revelation! 

 

That's not superior evaluation, that's making an obvious observation. 

 

What's next, we gonna debate Outback Steakhouse isnt as good as St Elmos? 

 

Let's judge the guy based on how he plays vs what hes being asked and expected to do. It's not fair to do anything else. 

 

Another strawman on your part. I'm not judging him as an elite QB. I'm talking about the things a QB leading a good offense will have to do, especially in the playoffs. You apparently just want to talk about his completion percentage and act like that equals good QBing. 

[stitches]

18 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

The biggest knocks on Luck for like the 4 first years of his career were his inability to diagnose coverages presnap, locking onto TY Hilton as his initial read, & holding onto the ball too long. I fully expect to see another young QB struggle with the same issues.

 

My stance on Jacoby is that I don't expect a 2nd year starter to play like a 10 year veteran, but if he's producing at the level that Brissett currently is, while progressing a little each week, I'm going to view that as a positive.

The biggest knock on Luck was not that he was locking on Hilton, he was making bad receivers look good from the very start and he's been having one of the most expansive receiving trees from the very start(he was throwing a lot to a lot of receivers not to just few he trusted). 

 

The biggest knock on Luck was that he was holding the ball too long. But the reason he was doing it was very different to the reason some other QBs do it(Mariota, Watson, to a lesser extent Brissett etc). Luck was given the responsibility from the very start to do full field progression reads in an Air Coryell system that relied on him to hold the ball and take deep shots. He was holding the ball in order to let all his progressions develop and make throws downfield(and sometimes he indeed pushed his Luck way too much and didn't know when to give up). The Mariotas of the world hold the ball because they have trouble isolating(what's there) and eliminating(what's not there)... 

[Superman]

Just now, stitches said:

The biggest knock on Luck was not that he was locking on Hilton, he was making bad receivers look good from the very start and he's been having one of the most expansive receiving trees from the very start(he was throwing a lot to a lot of receivers not to just few he trusted). 

 

The biggest knock on Luck was that he was holding the ball too long. But the reason he was doing it was very different to the reason some other QBs do it(Mariota, Watson, to a lesser extent Brissett etc). Luck was given the responsibility from the very start to do full field progression reads in an Air Coryell system that relied on him to hold the ball and take deep shots. He was holding the ball in order to let all his progressions develop and make throws downfield. The Mariotas of the world hold the ball because they have trouble isolating(what's there) and eliminating(what's not there)... 

 

[Myles]

28 minutes ago, 912Colts said:

Not based on these 4 games. But career wise yes he is. 

 

Since being a Colt career wise he's got 27 total TD's & 19 turn overs while averaging 220 yards a game. 

 

Definitely not above average. 

 

Not to harp, but if you are using both 2017 and 2019 number combined, you won't mind looking at the improvement between the 2.

 

                 2017                         2019

Cmp%      58%                            65%

TD%         2.8%                           7.2%

INT%        1.5%                           1.4%

Yards/G    193                             227

Sacks          52                              6

Rating       81                                102

QBR           41                                59

 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

You feel that with this team?

We would be 3-1 and on top of the division if Adam could kick the ball in game 1.   

I agree with you once you are eliminated from playoff contention.   

If this team could win 9 games, they could make the playoffs.  Depending how the season goes, they could make a run.   If the defense gets healthy and gels.   If Brisset shows some improvement.   If the WR's are healthy.   Who knows.   You don't give up at 2-2 though.

 

I agree you don't give up...but I hate the "could be 3-1 or 4-0" arguments. When you play coin flip games...2-2 game is about what you can expect. The Colts even have been outscored by 8 points for the season.

 

They might even be fortunate to be 2-2...DVOA has them at #26 overall (#31 in both D and ST). I wouldn't be surprised if their Pythagorean win total is actually less than 2 wins right now.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

23 minutes ago, Myles said:

I don't think anyone wants Dalton.

 

He'd be very good on any team with a halfway decent run game & an ok offensive line, the Bengals have neither.

[Myles]

1 minute ago, shastamasta said:

 

I agree you don't give up...but I hate the "could be 3-1 or 4-0" arguments. When you play coin flip games...2-2 game is about what you can expect. The Colts even have been outscored by 8 points for the season.

 

They might even be fortunate to be 2-2...DVOA has them at #26 overall (#31 in both D and ST). I wouldn't be surprised if their Pythagorean win total is actually less than 2 wins right now.

I only use the 3-1 thing because the first game would have been a win without the 7 points Adam missed.  I agree with you some though.  I've seen people say we could be 4-0 because we should have beaten the Raiders.  I'm not on that wagon.   

We are 2-2 and tied for the division lead.  All the games have been close, so I guess we could be 0-4 or 4-0.  But we are 2-2, soon to be 2-3 but with a much easier schedule after the bye.   Brissett currently gives us the best chance to win, so I am on board.

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

He'd be very good on any team with a halfway decent run game & an ok offensive line, the Bengals have neither.

Dalton or Brissett? Who do you take?  

[Stephen]

56 minutes ago, stitches said:

I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. 

 

There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). 

 

Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now. 

Actually  he doesn't  have the chemistry  with the wrs on the long throws other than maybe hilton.

[Stephen]

6 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

He'd be very good on any team with a halfway decent run game & an ok offensive line, the Bengals have neither.

Dalton is an average qb.

[Myles]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Dalton or Brissett? Who do you take?  

Gotta go with Brissett.   Looking at their careers, Dalton has had Brissett numbers throughout his career.   At least Brissett could still improve.     

[Steamboat_Shaun]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

The biggest knock on Luck was not that he was locking on Hilton, he was making bad receivers look good from the very start and he's been having one of the most expansive receiving trees from the very start(he was throwing a lot to a lot of receivers not to just few he trusted). 

 

The biggest knock on Luck was that he was holding the ball too long. But the reason he was doing it was very different to the reason some other QBs do it(Mariota, Watson, to a lesser extent Brissett etc). Luck was given the responsibility from the very start to do full field progression reads in an Air Coryell system that relied on him to hold the ball and take deep shots. He was holding the ball in order to let all his progressions develop and make throws downfield(and sometimes he indeed pushed his Luck way too much and didn't know when to give up). The Mariotas of the world hold the ball because they have trouble isolating(what's there) and eliminating(what's not there)... 

 

I agree with what you're saying, but every time Luck played a subpar game, I'd come to the forum & see a combination of these critiques:

 

A) Hones in on Hilton too much

B) Gotta get rid of the ball quicker

C) Needs to identify what the defense is doing presnap, would help with A & B

 

We can debate whether those were uneducated takes or not, but we'd be getting way off topic considering this thread is about how Jacoby Brissett has faired these 4 weeks into the season.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

6 minutes ago, stitches said:

Dalton or Brissett? Who do you take?  

 

Based on his redzone efficiency alone, I'd have to go with Brissett

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I agree with what you're saying, but every time Luck played a subpar game, I'd come to the forum & see a combination of these critiques:

 

A) Hones in on Hilton too much

B) Gotta get rid of the ball quicker

C) Needs to identify what the defense is doing presnap, would help with A & B

 

We can debate whether those were uneducated takes or not, but we'd be getting way off topic considering this thread is about how Jacoby Brissett has faired these 4 weeks into the season.

 

Sure... lets move on. Lets just say agree to disagree on A and C of your points. 

Just now, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Based on his redzone efficiency alone, I'd have to go with Brissett

What's your level of confidence that this type of efficiency will continue? 

[Stephen]

14 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I agree you don't give up...but I hate the "could be 3-1 or 4-0" arguments. When you play coin flip games...2-2 game is about what you can expect. The Colts even have been outscored by 8 points for the season.

 

They might even be fortunate to be 2-2...DVOA has them at #26 overall (#31 in both D and ST). I wouldn't be surprised if their Pythagorean win total is actually less than 2 wins right now.

That win thing is pointless. If it is at 2 wins I def see us beating  that.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

What's your level of confidence that this type of efficiency will continue? 

 

It's been the cherry-on-top of pretty much every scoring drive since week 1, so unless Frank Reich's redzone philosophy drastically changes, I'd expect it to stay pretty steady.

[Stephen]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Sure... lets move on. Lets just say agree to disagree on A and C of your points. 

What's your level of confidence that this type of efficiency will continue? 

I feel confident  it continue  for several  reasons. Cain and Campbell  will improve  as the season goes on allowing it to continue.  Brissett's passing  yards per game will improve  as season  goes on and he gets more comfortable  with wrs.

 

Funchess  will return who could be a big redzone threat. Brissett's  td numbers per game could rise once rookies run better  routes, catch a higher percentage  of passes, and Funchess returns. Ml

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Nick Sirriani talked about how fun it is watching JB develop and a lot of other stuff on his game. You should go watch it. 

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I feel confident  it continue  for several  reasons. Cain and Campbell  will improve  as the season goes on allowing it to continue.  Brissett's passing  yards per game will improve  as season  goes on and he gets more comfortable  with wrs.

 

Funchess  will return who could be a big redzone threat. Brissett's  td numbers per game could rise once rookies run better  routes, catch a higher percentage  of passes, and Funchess returns. Ml

Do you expect him to finish the season with 40+TDs?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Do you expect him to finish the season with 40+TDs?

Right now it’s going to be close. What could slow it down is if we start getting more running TD. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. 

 

There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). 

 

Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now. 

 

Colts also played in a monsoon in PHI in game 3...which skewed Luck's stats.

 

But this sample is actually a great example of why Luck and JB are two different tiers of QB.

 

Let's look at Game 4 for each QB...both games were a negative game script where the Colts got down by multiple scores.

 

Luck...after some mixed performances in the first three weeks...took off and elevated his game...completing 65% of his passes for 464 and 4 TDs and averaging 7.5 Y/A. He never really looked back after that game (aside from some INTs). 

 

JB...after looking great in a positive game script the week before against ATL...actually took a big step back...completing 52% of his passes for 265 yards and 3 TDs (one pick 6) while averaging only 5.76 Y/A.

 

Now, generally QBs don't fare well in negative game scripts...but it shows how QBs can elevate their game and make plays...we have to see a lot more of that from JB.

[Stephen]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Do you expect him to finish the season with 40+TDs?

It depends. He has been throwing  2 to three tds a game. If his chemistry  with the wrs continues  to improve  and he starts hitting  on deep bombs to hilton, Campbell  and cain then he could very well throw over 40 tds.

[shasta519]

25 minutes ago, stitches said:

Dalton or Brissett? Who do you take?  

 

No