Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Week 4 impressions: Brissett


SouthernIndianaNDFan
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

Oh I appreciate it. I just posted something above about it - this is the best thing going for Brissett right now. He's been exceptional in his red zone throws which is why his TDs are really high(+for some reason it seems like Reich is calling the game conservatively 20-to-20 but then throws a lot in the red zone, which is quirky, but I'm not sure it will continue with larger sample. Overall Brissett takes care of the ball and and is currently the QB with the lowest INT% along with Aaron Rodgers over the last 20 or so years. This is not new, he was like that in 2017 too. And any time you have low INT% you will have not bad TD/INT ratio. Right now his is off the charts because of a really high TD%. The problem with it is that this type of TD% is not sustainable with the way he's playing the game. TD% is highly correlated with big time throw% and Brissett's number of big time throws is very low(last stat I saw he was 29th out of 34 qualified QBs). This all points to this not being sustainable and it being a serious contender for a regression to the mean the more the sample grows... This is why I said 'meaningless' but probably 'meaningless' was not the right word for it. I qualified it 'for small samples' which makes it better, but yeah... this is what I meant - TD/INT is not meaningless, but when the sample is small and other indicators point to it not being sustainable, I don't put too much weight on it. 

 

TDs can be circumstantial and that TD % is bound to regress. He's 2nd in the league right now to Lamar...who averages more than 1.5 Y/A.

 

6 of those 10 TDs have come from within the 5 yard line. The Colts have only one rushing TD from inside the 5 yard line all season (only two rushing TDs on the season...the other a 63 yard run). And they have passed on 15/20 plays inside the 5 yard line...or a 3:1 ratio. I would expect that to balance out as well...as the season goes along...otherwise the Colts RZ efficiency will probably go down if teams don't respect the run.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

"Critics"

 

Do you realize that the people who have reservations about JB are not consumed by the win/loss record, or by the outcome of one play in one game? Saying 'we didn't lose because of Brissett, we lost because of X, Y and Z, and Brissett played good!' totally misses the point.

 

Superman, if you're not prepared to make a judgment on the overall quality of what we're seeing, and focus on smaller areas that are all critical of Brissett, what exactly are we supposed to think about where your assessment is of JB overall?

 

If you can't speak to the big picture while delivering content about areas for improvement, don't blame the rest of us when your unclear communication means we get the wrong end of the stick.

 

This is a forum of Colts fans.  Right now we're invested to the hilt in Brissett.  That brings out the guardian angel in some of us and I'm hardly alone in that as you well know.

 

 Those of us who are... a little sensitive to excessive criticism of our sports heroes... will need some handling if you want to come in with a hot take about individual areas for improvement.  Especially if you refuse to bracket these takes with anything that speaks to the larger  context or allows us to believe you aren't one of the negative Nancies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

TDs can be circumstantial and that TD % is bound to regress. He's 2nd in the league right now to Lamar...who averages more than 1.5 Y/A.

 

6 of those 10 TDs have come from within the 5 yard line. The Colts have only one rushing TD from inside the 5 yard line all season (only two rushing TDs on the season...the other a 63 yard run). And they have passed on 15/20 plays inside the 5 yard line...or a 3:1 ratio. I would expect that to balance out as well...as the season goes along...otherwise the Colts RZ efficiency will probably go down if teams don't respect the run.

One of the reasons for that disproportionality is that we lack size in the running back corps,but are effective in running in the open field.  Reich uses the 20 to 20 to establish the run, so defenses have to take it seriously and stack the box.  This allows Brissett the freedom to find open receivers along the sidelines inside the red zone.

 

It was heartening that even in the absence of that catalyst, Brissett was still able to produce a few touchdowns for the team.  But once the RB gets back on their feet and the team gets relatively healthy I expect the team to go right back to that offensive style 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:

Do me me a favor and actually look at the stats.   Then break them down.  He passed 49 freakin times!!!!!!

 

Actually, 46.

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019092905/2019/REG4/raiders@colts

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401128030

 

40 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:

completed 52%.

 

Correct.

Doesn't matter if it's thrown into the ground, over their head, out of bounds, or right in the receivers hands... and then they let it slip out and rest on the ground. It's 52%

 

OK, I'm good now...

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Imgrandojji said:

 

Superman, if you're not prepared to make a judgment on the overall quality of what we're seeing, and focus on smaller areas that are all critical of Brissett, what exactly are we supposed to think about where your assessment is of JB overall

 

If you can't speak to the big picture while delivering content about areas for improvement, don't blame the rest of us when your unclear communication means we get the wrong end of the stick.

 

This is a strawman.

 

I am and have been judging the overall quality of JB's play, and not just his completion percentage, TD/INT ratio or the team's win/loss record. Unlike those who complain about evaluation of JB that isn't always flattering, even though the Colts might have won the game.

 

I am NOT and have not been focusing only on smaller areas that are all critical of JB. His staunch defenders are cherry picking only the areas that are flattering to him.

 

And there's been nothing unclear about my comments regarding JB. I haven't even made very many, because it's obvious there's no point in discussing him right now. For whatever reason, every thread about JB is dominated by people either posting garbage about how he's trash and it's time for Chad Kelly to play, or by people acting like anything that's not entirely glowing and two-thumbs-up about JB is unfair to him. I don't even know why I'm responding now, other than complete frustration with the mischaracterization of this discussion over the last few weeks.

 

But how about this: Jacoby Brissett is a slightly above average NFL starter who appears to lack the playmaking, instincts and anticipation to be a top ten QB. To win the division and have playoff success with him starting, the run game needs to be way more consistent, and the defense needs to be much better. He's also an excellent teammate, appears to have the heart of a champion, and is still very much a work in progress, so he could theoretically get better as he plays more. But right now, he has obvious limitations that will cap this team's ceiling. 

 

How clear is that?

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Imgrandojji said:

One of the reasons for that disproportionality is that we lack size in the running back corps,but are effective in running in the open field.  Reich uses the 20 to 20 to establish the run, so defenses have to take it seriously and stack the box.  This allows Brissett the freedom to find open receivers along the sidelines inside the red zone.

 

It was heartening that even in the absence of that catalyst, Brissett was still able to produce a few touchdowns for the team.  But once the RB gets back on their feet and the team gets relatively healthy I expect the team to go right back to that offensive style 

Marlon Mack is a pretty big back. I think people forget he is 6ft tall. For a back that is good size.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Marlon Mack is a pretty big back. I think people forget he is 6ft tall. For a back that is good size.


He is tall, but he's not too powerful/doesn't excel on the goal line. Plus for whatever reason are OL hasn't gotten great push once we're inside the 5 so far this season.

Seems like we've been forced to go to the pass once we're near the goal line.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:


He is tall, but he's not too powerful/doesn't excel on the goal line. Plus for whatever reason are OL hasn't gotten great push once we're inside the 5 so far this season.

Seems like we've been forced to go to the pass once we're near the goal line.

Ir seems though we haven’t really tried to run that much inside the five. We did convert the two point conversion. The pass game has just been that good inside the red zone. It’s kind of silly how easy we have been scoring down there. I see your point there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:


He is tall, but he's not really a power back that excels on the goal line. Plus for whatever reason are OL hasn't gotten great push on the goal line. We seem to exclusively look for passing TD's once we get inside the 5.

It's to pad Jacoby's stats....didn't you get the memo? :P For reals though, 1st and goal and we can't run it in...WTH o-line!!!!...<SMH>.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Ir seems though we haven’t really tried to run that much inside the five. We did convert the two point conversion. The pass game has just been that good inside the red zone. It’s kind of silly how easy we have been scoring down there. I see your point there.


Brissett's done well there. I also really like Reich's pass playcalling near the goal line. Really seems like his bread and butter. Lots of good play action, misdirection, good bootlegs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, stitches said:

OH FFS! Stop with this nonsense. Completion % on small samples doesn't tell you much about accuracy. He was the most accurate QB in college over huge samples and on high difficulty throws. He completed 64% of his passes in his rookie year. 

 

Brissett will be lucky to ever have as good of a season as Mayfield did in his rookie year. And Mayfield didn't have this OLine and Frank Reich. 

 

If Mayfield fails it will be because of his attitude and his personality, not because of talent or skill. 

Mayfield threw 27 tds his rookie  year. Brissett  is on pace to destroy that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Well yeah, and that sort of brings me back to my original point, he'll have stretches of 10/2 TD/INT ratio and that's great.  As good as that is, I also don't really see a QB that imposes his will on the other team.  I see a QB hwo needs a strong supporting cast around him.  That doesn't mean he can't be a mainstay here, but I also think it means we should try to improve at the position if the opportunity presents itself.

You can't  impose your will til you get wrs that get open and catch.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Superman said:

But how about this: Jacoby Brissett is a slightly above average NFL starter who appears to lack the playmaking, instincts and anticipation to be a top ten QB. To win the division and have playoff success with him starting, the run game needs to be way more consistent, and the defense needs to be much better.

 

I was going to make a post that JB's play is not the style this team needs, at least at this time. We can't get out to big leads unless the Defense makes stops or forces FG's, and they aren't. We need T.Y., and Funchess, but they are hurt. Plus, some of the rooks need to learn how to run routes and create separation. I don't feel we can win very many shootouts. Or come back from 2 or more scores down. Again, in the near term.

 

The D has to help create early leads, O has to be balanced yet unpredictable.  Then at end of the game, D line must unleash the pass rush and pressure/sack/strip, without blitzing.  We'll grind out the W's we get.  But, IMO,  there's potential for many to get better and improve the situation in subsequent years.  Including the QB. Too  early to know, so I'm in wait and see mode hoping for signs of progress. Coaching and playing.

 

44 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Marlon Mack is a pretty big back. I think people forget he is 6ft tall. For a back that is good size.

 

When I think of goal line back, Earl Campbell, John Riggins, Jim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Eddie George, and Jamal Lewis types come to mind.  We don't have anything close to one of those types.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, egg said:

 

This statement illustrates well your unreasonable standard by which you judge. Brissett.

 

Even though Jacoby is on pace for 40 TDs, I don't expect him to get there.

 

In 17 years Peyton Manning only hit 40 only twice.

 

In 17 years Drew Brees ........twice

 

In 13 years Aaron Rogers ....twice

 

In 6 years Andrew Luck..... once.

 

In 19 years Tom Brady.........once.    Matthew Stafford 10 years .... once.

 

Phillip Rivers 16 years ...never.Carson Palmer 14 years...never. Matt Ryan 12 years ...never.

Eli Manning 15 years...never. Ben Rothlisberger 14 years...never. Russell Wilson 8 years...never.

Cam Newton...never.Dak Prescott never.

Flacco never.

Daulton never.

Winson, Watson, Carr,Goff, No.No.No.

 

Tom Brady didn't pass for 30 TDs until his 8th year.

Drew Brees didn't pass for 30 TDs until his 8th year.

Eli Manning didn't pass for 30TDs until his 7th year.

Cam Newton 5th year. Rothlisberger 4th year. Russel Wilson 4th year.

 

  

 

 

 

 

I think  he gets there for a few reasons.  Eventually  the wrs catch rate should improve  meaning as the season  goes on and Brissett  and the wrs get on a better  page with each other his td numbers  and yardage  numbers  should  increase.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

is that your only lame argument? the quicker you stop comparing JB to Luck the better off you will be you sound ignorant as hell when you do it. He isnt anywhere near as good as Luck and truth be told he probably never will be. 

Lick was bad in the kc game and his wrs had drops just like yesterday.  The difference  is with Brissett's bad game he still got 3tds and 1 int. Luck and mayfield  typically  threw 3 or 4 ints in their bad games.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I was going to make a post that JB's play is not the style this team needs, at least at this time. We can't get out to big leads unless the Defense makes stops or forces FG's, and they aren't. We need T.Y., and Funchess, but they are hurt. Plus, some of the rooks need to learn how to run routes and create separation. I don't feel we can win very many shootouts. Or come back from 2 or more scores down. Again, in the near term.


Yeah, this is something I've been voicing as well. The way our offense is built/run right now (run heavy, short/intermediate passes), and the way our defense is playing, we're not gonna win many shootouts or make many  big comebacks. We're not the type of team that can really put up points super quickly. Our scoring drives tend to take a lot of time off the clock. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Superman said:

To win the division and have playoff success with him starting, the run game needs to be way more consistent, and the defense needs to be much better.

 

And this is where many of us (certainly myself) are coming back down a bit after this week and last week's performances. We don't have the consistency in the run game (for whatever reason) nor the defense (specifically pass rush) to be a playoff contender. That wasn't expected on my part, or many of us coming in to this season. We expected a carryover of running success and the promising defense we saw get better every week last year that has an improved pass rush. We added Justin Houston and look like we are regressing big time. 

 

Coming in, everything looked very promising if Brissett played the way he's been playing... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

And this is where many of us (certainly myself) are coming back down a bit after this week and last week's performances. We don't have the consistency in the run game (for whatever reason) nor the defense (specifically pass rush) to be a playoff contender. That wasn't expected on my part, or many of us coming in to this season. We expected a carryover of running success and the promising defense we saw get better every week last year that has an improved pass rush. We added Justin Houston and look like we are regressing big time. 

 

Coming in, everything looked very promising if Brissett played the way he's been playing... 

Defense  needs help. We need an imposing middle  presence. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Stephen said:

Defense  needs help. We need an imposing middle  presence. 

 

I don't disagree, but what do you suggest that doesn't go against the fundamental belief of this front office? They aren't giving away early draft picks, nor making any drastic moves in a reaction to what is happening in week 3 and 4. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

And this is where many of us (certainly myself) are coming back down a bit after this week and last week's performances. We don't have the consistency in the run game (for whatever reason) nor the defense (specifically pass rush) to be a playoff contender. That wasn't expected on my part, or many of us coming in to this season. We expected a carryover of running success and the promising defense we saw get better every week last year that has an improved pass rush. We added Justin Houston and look like we are regressing big time. 

 

Coming in, everything looked very promising if Brissett played the way he's been playing... 

The run game was off because we couldn’t hit receivers. There is no doubt with TY the run game would of been fine. JB would of had a reliable target and would of got the ball to him and they would of had to back off the run defense. It also might of opened up Cain and Campbell more having TY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

The run game was off because we couldn’t hit receivers. There is no doubt with TY the run game would have been fine. JB would have had a reliable target and would have gotten the ball to him and they would have had to back off the run defense. It also might have opened up Cain and Campbell more having TY.

 

That's a lot of "would've"'s... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Myles said:

Me neither, but I can accept 65% completions and 10/2 TD to INT ratio.   

 

And the 12th ranked offense in points scored in spite of all Vinny's easy misses, which would put the Colts easily in the top 10 in points scored.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I hate being accused of not being a Colts fan on a Colts forum. We're all Colts fans here. 

Well if you got that out what I said, I apologize for my poor communications skills.

 

"homer" is a realy weird epithet to be slinging around on a forum where we're all rooting for the laundry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Superman said:

 

 

 

But how about this: Jacoby Brissett is a slightly above average NFL starter who appears to lack the playmaking, instincts and anticipation to be a top ten QB. To win the division and have playoff success with him starting, the run game needs to be way more consistent, and the defense needs to be much better. He's also an excellent teammate, appears to have the heart of a champion, and is still very much a work in progress, so he could theoretically get better as he plays more. But right now, he has obvious limitations that will cap this team's ceiling. 

 

Would you want to dump the 14th best QB in order for a low odds move of getting a top 10 QB?

I'm not sold on Brissett being a great QB who can take the team places, but I'm also not sold on wanting to trade multiple picks to move up a bit and draft a rookie QB who may be a bust.   I think the top couple will be taken by teams unwilling to move back.  Miami, Denver and Cincy will be looking for a QB.   If we are around the 18th spot in the draft, it'd take allot for us to move up to around 10-12 and we'd get the 4th QB in the draft (most likely).   May be similar to Rosen.  We could sit him behind Brissett for a year, but we would have given up draft picks that we could use on defense.   I just think it is a tough call when you have an above average QB even if he isn't great.   

I think it is very tough for Colts fans who have been spoiled with Manning and Luck for 2 decades.  We expect more.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You don’t give up draft picks to move up when this team clearly has holes on defense. I would rather use the draft picks to move up and grab a stud on defense.  QB is the least of our problems right now. If you don’t fix the defense it doesn’t matter who you have as a QB.  There is also no guarantee with a QB. Why would you want to start completely over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we have injuries on defense, that wouldnt stop me from getting a QB.  hooker and leonard need to stay healthy, i dont think we are drafting their replacements.

 

 Leonard and kenny moore are good at blitzing, its time to send them after the QB.  result cant be any worse than last week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Myles said:

Would you want to dump the 14th best QB in order for a low odds move of getting a top 10 QB?

I'm not sold on Brissett being a great QB who can take the team places, but I'm also not sold on wanting to trade multiple picks to move up a bit and draft a rookie QB who may be a bust.   I think the top couple will be taken by teams unwilling to move back.  Miami, Denver and Cincy will be looking for a QB.   If we are around the 18th spot in the draft, it'd take allot for us to move up to around 10-12 and we'd get the 4th QB in the draft (most likely).   May be similar to Rosen.  We could sit him behind Brissett for a year, but we would have given up draft picks that we could use on defense.   I just think it is a tough call when you have an above average QB even if he isn't great.   

I think it is very tough for Colts fans who have been spoiled with Manning and Luck for 2 decades.  We expect more.   

 

If Brissett still looks like a low ceiling, above average starter at the end of the year, I have no problem giving up a future first for the right prospect. I don't know how it will all shake out this year, but if we're in striking distance for someone, it might not take as much as you think to get him.

 

In 2017, the Chiefs gave up #27 and #91, plus their first rounder in 2018, to move up to #10 for Mahomes. Similar situation, they had a good QB that they knew was limited, they weren't bad the previous year, but they knew they wanted to strike while the iron was hot, so they made the big move while they still had a veteran in place. Then they traded the veteran for a young starter on defense and a third rounder.

 

I'd just let it play out, and make an honest evaluation at the end of the season. I'm definitely not gonna tank to get a higher draft pick. Even if I wasn't completely opposed to that strategy -- which I am, for the record -- there are other teams already tanking. And like you said, they aren't going to move off the top two or three spots this year without getting a huge ransom, so it's a bad strategy anyway. 

 

My pipe dream that the Broncos/Dolphins/Bengals all hate Justin Herbert, and we can find a way to get him.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

we have injuries on defense, that wouldnt stop me from getting a QB.  hooker and leonard need to stay healthy, i dont think we are drafting their replacements.

 

 Leonard and kenny moore are good at blitzing, its time to send them after the QB.  result cant be any worse than last week

I wouldn't use a 1st round pick on a QB, but I would agree we should use a pick on a QB.  

 

Since we won't be able to move up into the top 3, let's look at QB's drafted in the top 16 pick of  the 1st round between 1990 and 2017.   Way more busts than hits.   I'd much rather use the picks to improve the team and draft a QB later to groom or promote Kelly to the back up role and let him learn the game.   

 

 

image.thumb.png.ff71b75e3da947b422e159a5747743bf.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The colts could be in the same position as KC. There really was no need for them to draft Mahomes. They were winning just fine with smith. They saw a generational talent though in Mahomes and went for it. But let’s be real everyone kind of missed on how great he was except KC.   I mean imagine if Chicago had taken Mahomes rather then mitch. If Ballard thinks there is another Mahomes he will go for it no matter what. Unless JB just turns out to be very elite.  Guys like Mahomes though are rare and don’t come along very often.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Imgrandojji said:

Well if you got that out what I said, I apologize for my poor communications skills.

 

"homer" is a realy weird epithet to be slinging around on a forum where we're all rooting for the laundry.

 

I don't like calling other fans homers, and it's not something I make a practice of because it has a negative connotation to many. But I also don't post here just to cheer for the team. I'm here to discuss the team, positives and negatives. There will be honest disagreements, but it's annoying to me personally when those disagreements get boiled down to 'we're fans of the team, stop being critical.' And yes, that's an oversimplification of what you've said in this thread, but some of your comments do have that flavor.

 

Back on topic, I'm in JB's corner, and I want him to succeed. But I do think there are legitimate concerns about his play and abilities that it's okay to discuss. Doing so isn't a reflection of anyone's fandom. It's just an honest evaluation of the person playing the most important position on the team. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

 

In 2017, the Chiefs gave up #27 and #91, plus their first rounder in 2018, to move up to #10 for Mahomes. Similar situation, they had a good QB that they knew was limited, they weren't bad the previous year, but they knew they wanted to strike while the iron was hot, so they made the big move while they still had a veteran in place. Then they traded the veteran for a young starter on defense and a third rounder.

 

 

Hind sight, that worked well for them.   What if it would have been last year and they would have done the same thing for Rosen?   

I would say giving up 2 first round draft picks and a third is a big price for a low % chance of getting a QB better than slightly above average.  

 

I've seen too many teams let the rest of the roster suffer while putting their capital into the QB position every couple years.   I would prefer to build a solid team with an above average QB and hope we can come across an elite QB with a mid round draft pick.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

The colts could be in the same position as KC. There really was no need for them to draft Mahomes. They were winning just fine with smith. They saw a generational talent though in Mahomes and went for it. But let’s be real everyone kind of missed on how great he was except KC.   I mean imagine if Chicago had taken Mahomes rather then mitch. If Ballard thinks there is another Mahomes he will go for it no matter what. Unless JB just turns out to be very elite.  Guys like Mahomes though are rare and don’t come along very often.

they made that move to get over the hump (patriots).  they still have not done that in the playoffs, but they were probably never going to with alex smith.  Andy reid is probably the best QB guru still coaching, i think its fair to wonder if PM would have the same production just anywhere 

 

im still not convinced the colts will ever go far with Jacoby though 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of right now I would say Ballard is not actively going to be looking for a QB. But he isn’t going to shut the door either. He isn’t going to change just for the sake of change. It would have to be a very special kid for him to move and take one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...